I’ve backed My Tent at 13/2 each way NRNB, 3 places, 1/4 odds in Bet365’s betting without Buveur D’air market.
There are doubts about the participation of most of the list above him in the market, which is Faugheen, Yorkill, Min and Melon. The same goes for those directly beneath him; Defi Du Seuil, The New One and Apples Jade.
It’s very hard IMO to see MTOY not finish in the first four places, assuming one of the places is taken by Buveur D’air and unless a peak form Faugheen turns up he’s as good a chance as any of filling the runner up spot for the 4th time so 13/2 each way in a race which could really cut up is too big.
For me he’d have the beating of Melon. The Mullins horse pulled hard in the International but MTOY wasn’t much better, despite showing an improvement in his older years but is more likely to be suited to the often better March ground.
I can’t have MTOY finishing in front of Melon next time. The latter will get a 6lbs pull for a couple of lengths, and on my viewing of the International, pulled considerably harder than MTOY did throughout the race.
I personally see the sense in backing pretty much anything NRNB w/o Boover. Personally I think the trial you mention Grass, Ch'tibello came out on top for me as the most likely with all things considered. In all honesty though I think the trials will have little bearing on the day. Ardross has made a good point about the Haydock trial but in general all the trials seem to be run on bad ground at a slow pace nothing like the day. At least My tent has been and done it and true he might not come second but I wouldn't like to bet against him being 4th best and as the bet is e/w I see it as having a punchers chance of winning but a very solid chance of getting paid on the place part. Pretty much the way I'd see your interest in L'ami serge for the Stayers bet. You'd also have to take into account that Melon might not even be there given the Mullins entries who knows. Its not a bet for me but I certainly see the sense in the approach its just I've favoured Ch'tibello and Call me a lord as better value.