The Road to the 2019 Champion Hurdle

One thing for sure. If Samcro stays over hurdles you can be dam sure Elliott will have some type of hare to take them off like the clappers next time out and bring Samcro’s stamina into pace because to be successful over 2m in top class company he’ll need that. He doesn’t have that instant change of speed a Buveur D’Air has or a Hurricane Fly had off any type of a gallop. It’s all grand doing it against deadwood in bumpers over 2m and even in the Deloitte he beat stayers. But it’s twice now in G1 open company he’s failed to win and really disappointingly today he failed to pick up. Imagine what The Buv would’ve done to Bedrock or Sharjah today! Bridle job.

If you were a Samcro fan you’d have to bitterly disappointed with that today. It’s even puzzling that he’s still shorter than Melon

On a line through Wicklow Brave you can tie Bedrock into last years Champion Hurdle form. Bedrock beat a fit Wicklow Brave by 5L in the Horse & Jockey Hotel Hurdle at Tipperary. Buveur D’Air beat WB by 20+ lengths in last years champion.


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Kauto Abu said:
On a line through Wicklow Brave you can tie Bedrock into last years Champion Hurdle form. Bedrock beat a fit Wicklow Brave by 5L in the Horse & Jockey Hotel Hurdle at Tipperary. Buveur D’Air beat WB by 20+ lengths in last years champion.


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Wicklow Brave is an inconsistent hound over hurdles, and just about the last horse you would want to ‘yardstick’ handicap a race, I reckon. Don’t think that comparison tells us anything at all, to be honest, KA.

As far as Samcro is concerned, it’s too early to be writing him off as a CH hope. Whilst disappoinment is natural at the time, a cooler assessment suggests his performance was actually quite handy, given the weight concession to a hard-fit, mid-150s animal - albeit one that was short of what would be needed to win a Champion Hurdle.

As it stands, Buveur D’Air supporters are possibly justified in feeling they have nothing to worry about from Samcro. Boov is already established as a Champion, is almost certainly more of a true 2-miler than Samcro, and has the required level of form in the bag.

But equally, it’s too early for Samcro supporters to be slitting their wrists. He has Grade 1 winning form over 2m, won a Bumper on G/Y (and is probably ground agnostic), and a true-run race - something his owners can almost certainly ensure - will place the emphasis on stamina. There are reasons for optimism - especially if Down Royal was basically just a straightener for Punchestown.

But Samcro needs to go very close in the Morgiana.

I hope he does, as it would make the Champion Hurdle a much more compelling race this year, than it has been recently, if he can quickly get his season back on the rails......and the lustre of the race would be enhanced further, if Laurina can add her name to the mix too.

I have a feeling that trying to concede her 7lbs, might prove a tall order for any horse, in the coming season.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Wicklow Brave is an inconsistent hound over hurdles, and just about the last horse you would want to ‘yardstick’ handicap a race, I reckon. Don’t think that comparison tells us anything at all, to be honest, KA.
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One mans trash is another mans treasure GH. I’d argue that he’s been ultra consistent rather than inconsistent and is the only horse tying the bedrock /samcro form to previous champion hurdle form. Since WB finished 8th to Buveur D’Air in the 2017 champion hurdle he finished 7th again this year. He won the Punchestown G1 hurdle in 2017 and finished 2nd to Supasunday in it this year. Over the summer he won a pile of mickey mouse races on the flat, won a minor hurdle at Listowel and finished 3rd to Bedrock at Tipperary last month, a form line which received a big boost last Friday. That to me is consistent, maybe it’s not to you but it certainly is to me.




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I could care less about his Flat runs, tbh.

You’re measuring him against Samcro, based on his CH run, but Wicklow Brave has been beaten 22L, 14L and 10L in graded company at the track. He did win a Festival handicap of course, but that was from a mark of 138.

It’s the straight line you’re trying to draw between the Tipperary and CH form, that I’m taking issue with. It doesn’t really (imo) hold much water, insofar as telling you how much Samcro might have to find, to beat Buveur D’Air in the big race in March.

Like you say though, each to their own. :thumbsup:
 
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Grasshopper said:
I could care less about his Flat runs, tbh.

You’re measuring him against Samcro, based on his CH run, but Wicklow Brave has been beaten 22L, 14L and 10L in graded company at the track. He did win a Festival handicap of course, but that was from a mark of 138.

It’s the straight line you’re trying to draw between the Tipperary and CH form, that I’m taking issue with. It doesn’t really (imo) hold much water, insofar as telling you how much Samcro might have to find, to beat Buveur D’Air in the big race in March.

Like you say though, each to their own. :thumbsup:
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Yes but he did win a G1 at Punchestown in 2017 and was 2nd in a G1 this year after getting a trouncing in both champion hurdles. He has consistently run to that level in champion hurdles and you cant really argue he doesn’t handle the track after winning the county hurdle by 8L.


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Grasshopper said:
I have a feeling that trying to concede her 7lbs, might prove a tall order for any horse, in the coming season.
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How good do you think she might be?

Annie Power level?

She'll need to be near.

Fact they aren't diluting her with the mares race is a good indicator that they must think she is pretty good.
 
granger said:
How good do you think she might be?

Annie Power level?

She'll need to be near.

Fact they aren't diluting her with the mares race is a good indicator that they must think she is pretty good.
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probably due to circumstances at the time but don't think they ever came out and said annie was to be aimed at a champion hurdle so early in her career, whereas they have with this one.

whether that means what it actually says on the tin is another matter. given its wpm who said it.
 
AP was only ever the back up plan if Faugheen were injured. She wouldn’t have run in the 2016 CH, if Faugheen had remained fit.
 
I've watched Bedrock's race many times and have him running 155 and Samcro 158.It was a properly run race comparing the time to the G3 Mares Nov Hurdle on the same card. I got the impression watching Samcro's races he needs some cut in the ground. Samcro will improve but needs to find 10lb to be a CH contender and will need some soft in the ground. With soft I believe there is that amount of improvement in him. Too early to write off yet but I would be a layer if the festival ground was good or faster.
 
granger said:
How good do you think she might be?

Annie Power level?

She'll need to be near.

Fact they aren't diluting her with the mares race is a good indicator that they must think she is pretty good.
Click to expand...


Probably needs to improve another 10lbs to a stone, to be a serious, genuine, CH contender. Not impossible, based on what I saw last season, and I’d say she is probably just as good - and possibly better - than Annie was, at the same stage of her career.

My worry with Laurina is less about her talent, and more about her ability to handle spring ground, as she hasn’t raced on anything quicker than Soft, and you’d have to think Cheltenham ground won’t be anywhere near a bad next Festival.
 
Morgiana entries out and it's all the Irish principals

The mare is entered along with Faugheen, Melon and Saldier who is the CH dark horse from that stable

Samcro there too, as is Apple's jade
 
Entries for the Fighting Fifth include Apple's Jade, Verdana Blue, Samcro, Buveur D'air, Summerville Boy, We Have A Dream, Sceau Royal.
 
Samcro only runs if the rain comes.. so how´s the weather there? will the brothers meet tomorrow or not
 
Very unlikely there’ll be any major rain. Small bit of drizzle overnight but not enough to change the going which is good. Down Royal was probably firmer than Punchestown however.


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Not long back in from walking the course at Punchestown. It’s beautiful ground. Watering last night has maintained good/yielding ground. There should be absolutely no reason to withdraw Samcro on ground concerns.


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