The Road to the 2019 Champion Hurdle

JamesRB said:
did similar with annie

might be a chance for one more run before march but if she does go CH suspect she goes there unexposed and as a completely unknown quantity having beaten nothing of note
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According to O’Sullivan a win tomorrow & it’s straight to the Champion.


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Laurina going straight to the Champion would certainly add to the anticipation.
If she is as good as Annie Power was then she will win. That is the question!
 
On Racing TV Ruby seemed fairly surprised, as he was being interviewed by Nick Luck, when Mullins said she’d go straight there over the PA system. He said something like “wait ‘til I get my hands on him” or something like that as well as “never listen to Willie immediately after a race” so not sure if he feels she’s still novicey.

He also pressed him on soft ground issue because of her knee action.


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get the feeling Laurina could be a special mare, but 2m on ground that isn't soft and the way she jumps hurdles would definitely give me pause for her in a champion hurdle. no guarantees it won't be soft though and a faster pace could see her jump them slicker.

ultimately though i'm more keen to see her over a fence.
 
JamesRB said:
get the feeling Laurina could be a special mare, but 2m on ground that isn't soft and the way she jumps hurdles would definitely give me pause for her in a champion hurdle. no guarantees it won't be soft though and a faster pace could see her jump them slicker.

ultimately though i'm more keen to see her over a fence.
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This is what adds to the anticipation. A completely different test awaits.
 
Kauto Abu said:
On Racing TV Ruby seemed fairly surprised, as he was being interviewed by Nick Luck, when Mullins said she’d go straight there over the PA system. He said something like “wait ‘til I get my hands on him” or something like that as well as “never listen to Willie immediately after a race” so not sure if he feels she’s still novicey.
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Yes, I heard that but was in the room next door so wasn't sure I'd heard it clearly.

It certainly sounded like he was, if not pouring cold water on the idea, certainly lukewarm to the idea.
 
From OH's Blog - ATR:
"I suppose with Buveur d’Air being outspeeded at Kempton, that Samcro, who he readily outpaced at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth, was found out in what developed into a speed test at Leopardstown three days later should not have been such a shock, though to many it was".

Kevin Blake also agrees with my contention; that the RyanAir Hurdle wasn't run at much of a pace, and that Samcro wasn't really ridden to win.
No surprise should connections find nothing physically wrong with him, and he duly takes his chance in the Champion Hurdle.
 
The bit where you believe Kevin Blake to have said that Samcro wasn't ridden to win is in your head only.
 
Kevin Blake re Samcro

" The run of Samcro back in fifth is one that perhaps prompted the most discussion. Sent off at 6/4 despite having been blown away by Buveur D’Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, he jumped better than ever and travelled up menacingly to challenge in between the final two flights, but he finished very weakly to be beaten by 7¾ lengths. There have been many different opinions put forward about the run, but for me it was indicative of a horse that has something amiss with him.
While he looked to be well exposed in the Fighting Fifth and his novice hurdle form may not be as good as many viewed it at the time, for him to finish so weakly after jumping and travelling as well as he did was too bad to be true. While a switch to fences, softer ground and/or a longer trip may all prove suitable for him in the fullness of time, right now he just doesn’t look to be firing for whatever reason. It will be fascinating to see what his connections choose to do with him next."
 
In my opinion something was clearly amiss with Samcro at Christmas. He was given every opportunity to win but he couldn’t even beat Tombstone and having beaten Sharjah by 5L at Down Royal giving him 8lbs he was now 8L behind him off level weights. He stopped like a light at Leopardstown, I wouldn’t be surprised if the tinker with his wind but it’s a bit far fetched to suggest he wasn’t ridden to win.

I actually think Buveur D’Air probably came back too soon at Kempton off the back of his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle and possibly even bounced at Christmas. He put up a super performance at Newcastle, a career best according to ratings at only 75% fitness. Three weeks later then he lines up in the Xmas hurdle giving a very talented mare 7lb in her optimum conditions and goes down a head. The mistake 3 out certainly didn’t cost him the race and nine times out of ten he’d have gotten away with it but VB is a very good mare.

A nice break until the contenders where he’ll stroll around and then all roads will lead to Prestbury Park for three in a row.


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Diamond Geezer said:
Kevin Blake re Samcro

" The run of Samcro back in fifth is one that perhaps prompted the most discussion. Sent off at 6/4 despite having been blown away by Buveur D’Air in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, he jumped better than ever and travelled up menacingly to challenge in between the final two flights, but he finished very weakly to be beaten by 7¾ lengths. There have been many different opinions put forward about the run, but for me it was indicative of a horse that has something amiss with him.
While he looked to be well exposed in the Fighting Fifth and his novice hurdle form may not be as good as many viewed it at the time, for him to finish so weakly after jumping and travelling as well as he did was too bad to be true. While a switch to fences, softer ground and/or a longer trip may all prove suitable for him in the fullness of time, right now he just doesn’t look to be firing for whatever reason. It will be fascinating to see what his connections choose to do with him next."
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Harumph !!!
From KB's Blog - ATR: Over at Leopardstown on Saturday, the Ryanair Hurdle did produce an easy winner that could potentially be a contender for the Champion Hurdle, but it was a race that left more questions than answers. A steadily-run contest, it produced a comfortable winner in the shape of the Willie Mullins-trained SHARJAH. He hasn’t had much of a break since making a winning hurdling debut in late-September 2017, this having been his 12th start over hurdles.
 
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reet hard said:
Harumph !!!
From KB's Blog - ATR: Over at Leopardstown on Saturday, the Ryanair Hurdle did produce an easy winner that could potentially be a contender for the Champion Hurdle, but it was a race that left more questions than answers. A steadily-run contest, it produced a comfortable winner in the shape of the Willie Mullins-trained SHARJAH. He hasn’t had much of a break since making a winning hurdling debut in late-September 2017, this having been his 12th start over hurdles.
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How do you marry “a steadily run contest” with “not being ridden to win”. He made all at Newcastle and got picked up in a matter of strides. Different tactics at Christmas obviously.

Ideally Petit Mouchoir would’ve made all at a good clip but it was his first run back off a lay off so that was never going to happen.


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Newcastle wasn't strongly run either, so no surprise he was picked up by the speedier BD.
Connections made the point beforehand that Samcro would need a strong pace, hence the presence of 2 (ostensible) pacemakers. That they weren't doing that job was obvious from some way out, so you'd expect a horse of his profile and pedigree to try and force the pace from that point on. That he didn't was plain to see; the inference being he was in the race for not much more than a 'looksee'.
 
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The Delottie blows that theory right out the window as it was run at a slowish pace and Samcro quickened up like a good horse.

Personally I was far from impressed by his Neptune win him wandering about like a big baby and was very harsh about his defeat first time up so I have never been his biggest fan.

I did say "too much too soon" somewhere along the line might be the case and then I read something about him missing the season but to be honest I am not up to date.

That's due to the fact I wouldn't have him on my mind for the next 12 to 24 months for Cheltenham.........he looks like shell shocked kid to me who needs time

I still see Melon as the biggest danger ....Laurina has too much to prove IMO
 
Tanlic said:
The Delottie blows that theory right out the window as it was run at a slowish pace and Samcro quickened up like a good horse.
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The Deloitte was a novice race, and run on soft ground, so has little bearing on the RyanAir.
 
It doesn't? can't agree with that. Every race he ran irrespective of ground or distance last season he QUICKENED

3 times this season he has failed to show the same turn of foot.

If you are trying to say it was because of the way he was ridden the pace or the ground I say Bullshit....The horse has gone for the time being simple as.

These things can take months, even years to sort them self out but the longer it takes the less chance they retain their speed back.

Knowing that I would image he'll go novice chasing if they can get him back on track as he'll never win a CH now.
 
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