The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It was a brilliant ride, fabulous to watch. He was idling in front but not sure about getting the GC trip and think he might be 'bullied' out of it.
 
G-G said:
It was a brilliant ride, fabulous to watch. He was idling in front but not sure about getting the GC trip and think he might be 'bullied' out of it.
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Rail movements mean they ran an extra 151 yards today, taking the overall distance to 3m 1f 207y, not that short of the Gold Cup trip which might end up being run on better ground.

If Frodon was idling then the trip wouldn't be a worry. My worry would be that I'm not sure they went Gold Cup pace today.
 
I mentioned elsewhere that maybe Frodon wasn't quite fit and I've read another race report in which Nicholls states openly the horse was short of full fitness.

In the same report, Henderson says Terrefort blew up, which he "half-expected" but goes on to say he's not sure what race he'll run in at Cheltenham.

I learned a long time ago that ratings don't win races and I'm by no means saying Frodon will win the Gold Cup but at least he's one step closer.
 
Nicholls yard hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late - excluding Frodon yesterday he has only saddled 2 winners from 23 runners in the last 14 days, this together with the post race comments which suggested Frodon wasn't fully wound up yesterday, if like me you think he was idling in front more than being exposed as a questionable stayer then he is a very big player. There are serious doubts about ll thse at the head of the market. Any horse that has 4 chase wins at the course deserves respect, the big qestion is like others have said the pace angle, his two worst runs at the course were at the festival.
 
Nicholls’ horses are invariably quiet at this time of year as they have their vaccines and he lets them down before readying them for the big sprint targets. For all that, no way does Frodon win the Gold Cup IMO. Horses that don’t truly stay the trip don’t win Gold Cups, especially when horses like Native River make it a real test.
 
wilsonl said:
Nicholls’ horses are invariably quiet at this time of year as they have their vaccines and he lets them down before readying them for the big sprint targets. For all that, no way does Frodon win the Gold Cup IMO. Horses that don’t truly stay the trip don’t win Gold Cups, especially when horses like Native River make it a real test.
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But this is an unknown, there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest he doesn't stay, its a justifiable position but as of yet unproven.
 
The fact Elegant Escape(boat) finished as close as he did off what was not a searching pace says it all.

Is 'idling' one of the most overused words in racing!
 
FWIW, Frodon covered the final circuit to the final fence as fast as either of the two shorter races. He was slightly slower from the last but given he was short of peak fitness and was dossing in front, it's not a bad old run.

I'm not sure Native River could run the circuit any faster. Then again, I've never seen him as anything other than an ordinary winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I mentioned elsewhere that maybe Frodon wasn't quite fit and I've read another race report in which Nicholls states openly the horse was short of full fitness.

In the same report, Henderson says Terrefort blew up, which he "half-expected" but goes on to say he's not sure what race he'll run in at Cheltenham.

I learned a long time ago that ratings don't win races and I'm by no means saying Frodon will win the Gold Cup but at least he's one step closer.
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Nicholls said immediately post race that he was worried he hadn't done enough with him as he had had a break - Frodon that is not PN. Bryony took a pull between the last 3/4 or 4/5 ( I would have to watch it back) She knows him so well, if they get the ground and he turns up fully fit, I honestly think they could do it.
 
Before I'd even get into discussing Frodon's ability which is frankly not good enough for a gold cup, he tends to run shockingly every spring without fail. Compare his winter form with his spring form each year and then move on.
 
Danny said:
Before I'd even get into discussing Frodon's ability which is frankly not good enough for a gold cup, he tends to run shockingly every spring without fail. Compare his winter form with his spring form each year and then move on.
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I admit it's an angle I hadn't considered but he's only turned seven and was trained before with big Saturday hcaps, rather than Cheltenham in March, in mind.
 
Add in his form with Bryony Frost , only once out of the money , compared to his other partners record and it might just happen.
Field size on the day may be a factor though as a smaller field may suit a horse of his stature.
 
Double J said:
In my short time following racing, I think this year will be the worst renewal I can remember.
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I disagree JJ. Whilst there's no Kauto or Denman I'd say it may end up being a deep, big field, Gold Cup.

Thinking about what may turn up I may go as far as saying as deep as any previous I can think of.
 
For me it's shaping up as bang average, like last year's.

I can see the logic in saying it's a good one if you believe last year's was a good one, or a poor one if you take a worst-case-scenario view of the individual contenders' form.

It's seldom a poor race but the best horse doesn't always win.
 
I'm also in the opposite camp with regards last years Gold Cup Maurice. It's rare for us to disagree actually but we're absolute opposites on this one.

All that said I understand why you've take the view you have with Anibale Fly in third beaten eight and half lengths. I think you do him and Geraghty a disservice though as he was given an excellent picking up the pieces ride.

Djakadam holds the form together though, and his previous three and half, four and a half, and one and half length defeats to Sizing John, Don Cossack, and Coneygree when all at their peak are the most reliable formlines to take. You can't make a case for regression in Djakadam's performance, because in the Punchestown Gold Cup after the race he was every bit as good as his performances in the same race following his previous Gold Cup defeats.

If you accept that, alongside the pace that no other horse could live with in the soft ground, and the fact that the were entitled to a relatively slower finish as a consequence of the punishing pace, then I think the winning margin is even more meritorious. I would go as far as saying I could make a case that it was possibly the best Gold Cup of recent years. I would go as far as to say that I genuinely believe that the winning performance was potentially good enough to win each renewal since 2010.
 
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Maruco said:
I think you do [Anibale Fly] and Geraghty a disservice though as he was given an excellent picking up the pieces ride.
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This, for me, is one of the major de-coders of the race.

In a proper race, I'm always looking for a lower-rated horse that gets such a ride, not over-raced and able to run to its max as other shoot their bolt. I reckon such types tend to run to their best previous rating and are the most accurate guide to the form.

As I said elsewhere, the ground was unusual last year. Native River and Might Bite got to race on fresh ground. The ones that went slightly wider were racing on churned ground.

Djakadam, for me, was the most difficult factor in the equation in that I wasn't sure how close he'd run to his previous ratings. It was reading somewhere within a day or two of the race that he didn't stay that led me down the negative route. He might be one of those horses that gets faster as he gets older at the expense of stamina, not unlike some of those old Flat horses that raced over a mile or so before later in their career ending up running better at sprint distances.

I do see both sides of the argument and I'm open to the more positive view ultimately prevailing. Then again, I've never had Native River that high on any other form. I'd actually back Un Temps Pour Tout to beat him in a match over the Gold Cup trip.
 
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