I don't think last years is as bad as you make out - it takes 2 very good horses to go that gallop - going into the race people thought MB was unbeatable.
I was one of the ones who thought MB was a good thing. I genuinely expected him to win by clear daylight and all through the race until the last fence still thought it would happen. I still think he's a much better horse than Native River in much the same way that Wayward Lad was a much better horse than Dawn Run and Desert Orchid himself was a vastly better horse than Yahoo (yet I backed Yahoo to win that day).
I think last years RSA was a bumper edition and if PP shows up on the day like he did last year, he'll take some beating
PP is one for whom I have immense respect. I have a very big rating for his RSA, only 2lbs shy of MB's, and a lot better than many RSAs. I haven't ruled out backing him.
I'd have to say, nor have I ruled out backing Might Bite again. If the ground ends up decent and I can get 20/1 or even 4/1 place only on the day - which might happen if Hendo keeps leaking negative titbits about him - I'd want some sickness insurance on him.
ABP is another one who has a good few lbs improvement in him. Look at the form of last years Flogas.
Will do.
They have been patient with Sizing John too - ive not given up hope on him
Yes, his win is on a par with Native River's in my book. My review at the time:
3.30
TIMICO CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (GRADE 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £327,463 14 runners
3m2f70y Good
I don’t know about you but I sometimes wonder if people who don’t crunch their own numbers see races so much differently. I thought this was an okay race to watch but no doubt plenty will have thought it very exciting. I couldn’t get worked up about it seeing that Smad Place wasn’t asked to race prominently, or that Outlander was never in it, or that Bristol De Mai seemed to meet every other fence wrong, frequently losing ground at them. Even as the race reached its dénouement the presence of Minella Rocco and More Of That had me questioning the value of the form. Cue Card wasn’t even going as well as he can when he did an encore of last year’s fall three out. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he might have rallied up the hill had he negotiated the fence as he can hit a flat spot.
I’m using Native River as the most likely guide to the form, repeating his mark from both the Hennessy and Welsh National. It means Djakadam was below form but to rate it via him would make Minella Rocco and Saphir Du Rheu uncomfortably high. Were the latter scenario to be the correct one it would mean Saphir Du Rheu would probably just need to negotiate the fences safely at Aintree to hack up there. I can live with that!
Sizing John’s 169 is bog-standard bang average for a Gold Cup. Coneygree would have had him for dinner. But Sizing John is young enough to have plenty of improvement. Given the first three are all 7yos leaves the door open for all of them to improve further by this time next year so the clouds have silver linings and if the form is better than I’m rating it, so much the better.
