The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Desert Orchid said:
For me it's shaping up as bang average, like last year's.
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I don't think last years is as bad as you make out - it takes 2 very good horses to go that gallop - going into the race people thought MB was unbeatable.

I think last years RSA was a bumper edition and if PP shows up on the day like he did last year, he'll take some beating

ABP is another one who has a good few lbs improvement in him. Look at the form of last years Flogas.

They have been patient with Sizing John too - ive not given up hope on him
 
granger said:
I don't think last years is as bad as you make out - it takes 2 very good horses to go that gallop - going into the race people thought MB was unbeatable.
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I was one of the ones who thought MB was a good thing. I genuinely expected him to win by clear daylight and all through the race until the last fence still thought it would happen. I still think he's a much better horse than Native River in much the same way that Wayward Lad was a much better horse than Dawn Run and Desert Orchid himself was a vastly better horse than Yahoo (yet I backed Yahoo to win that day).


granger said:
I think last years RSA was a bumper edition and if PP shows up on the day like he did last year, he'll take some beating
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PP is one for whom I have immense respect. I have a very big rating for his RSA, only 2lbs shy of MB's, and a lot better than many RSAs. I haven't ruled out backing him.

I'd have to say, nor have I ruled out backing Might Bite again. If the ground ends up decent and I can get 20/1 or even 4/1 place only on the day - which might happen if Hendo keeps leaking negative titbits about him - I'd want some sickness insurance on him.


granger said:
ABP is another one who has a good few lbs improvement in him. Look at the form of last years Flogas.
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Will do.


granger said:
They have been patient with Sizing John too - ive not given up hope on him
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Yes, his win is on a par with Native River's in my book. My review at the time:

3.30 TIMICO CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (GRADE 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £327,463 14 runners 3m2f70y Good
[TABLE="width: 587"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]RES[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]HORSE[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]WGT[/TD]
[TD]TRAINER RTF%[/TD]
[TD]JOCKEY[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Sizing John[SUP]33[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Mrs John Harrington[SUP]60[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Robbie Power[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Minella Rocco[SUP]33[/SUP]tp[SUP]1[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]47[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Noel Fehily[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Native River[SUP]34[/SUP]p [/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[SUP]20[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Djakadam[SUP]79[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[SUP]45[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]R Walsh[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Saphir Du Rheu[SUP]29[/SUP] [/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]44[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]More Of That[SUP]33[/SUP]p [/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]11-10[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]47[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Aidan Coleman[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I don’t know about you but I sometimes wonder if people who don’t crunch their own numbers see races so much differently. I thought this was an okay race to watch but no doubt plenty will have thought it very exciting. I couldn’t get worked up about it seeing that Smad Place wasn’t asked to race prominently, or that Outlander was never in it, or that Bristol De Mai seemed to meet every other fence wrong, frequently losing ground at them. Even as the race reached its dénouement the presence of Minella Rocco and More Of That had me questioning the value of the form. Cue Card wasn’t even going as well as he can when he did an encore of last year’s fall three out. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he might have rallied up the hill had he negotiated the fence as he can hit a flat spot.

I’m using Native River as the most likely guide to the form, repeating his mark from both the Hennessy and Welsh National. It means Djakadam was below form but to rate it via him would make Minella Rocco and Saphir Du Rheu uncomfortably high. Were the latter scenario to be the correct one it would mean Saphir Du Rheu would probably just need to negotiate the fences safely at Aintree to hack up there. I can live with that!

Sizing John’s 169 is bog-standard bang average for a Gold Cup. Coneygree would have had him for dinner. But Sizing John is young enough to have plenty of improvement. Given the first three are all 7yos leaves the door open for all of them to improve further by this time next year so the clouds have silver linings and if the form is better than I’m rating it, so much the better.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I don’t know about you but I sometimes wonder if people who don’t crunch their own numbers see races so much differently..
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Very good post Mo

I guess anyone who handicaps does see a race quite differently as it's so open to personal interpretation

For sizing john that gold cup was only his second time at 3 miles so all being well, he could well have improvement in him
 
At the start of the (2019) year Jessie indicated he could even run over hurdles in his prep. She didn't want him to have too much of a stamina test.

"Whether he reappears over hurdles or fences, the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup is still very much the plan once all goes well with him."
 
I remember when Looks Like Trouble came back from his injury in 2002 he won 30 lengths in John Bull chase win, then onto Gold Cup when he broke down again. Trainer Noel Chance was p''''d off after race that he did not have the balds to just run the horse in Gold Cup first time back.
Not saying Jessie could/should/would go that route but she has firepower and facilities at home to get SJ as ready as she wants to, though he may not just be that type of horse.
 
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Would you risk a horse that has apparently come back well from a major injury on ground that is perhaps unsuitable. Get it wrong now and that’s it.
Betfair tonight is 33/1 for SJ to win Gold Cup. If right he’ll be in the mix. There are worse 33/1 punts especially in a market that has both depth and time. So now have two 33/1 shots running for me - Kemboy is tother. Just waiting for someone start a rumour about Native River so I can have all ground conditions covered.
 
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Yesterday's race was run in a marginally slower time and on quicker ground than the 'slow' Savills with both the principals having a hard race. I wouldn't really fancy either for the big one now.
 
archie said:
Yesterday's race was run in a marginally slower time and on quicker ground than the 'slow' Savills with both the principals having a hard race. I wouldn't really fancy either for the big one now.
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Amazed to hear the time was slower than the Savills. Must have been very slowly run initially, I look forward to reading Simon Rowlands in the Irish Field on Saturday!!

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littlelad said:
Amazed to hear the time was slower than the Savills. Must have been very slowly run initially, I look forward to reading Simon Rowlands in the Irish Field on Saturday!!

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Of course, times are notoriously unreliable on different days especially in Ireland where the race distance is given as the same but hasn't been measured to the yard. Just measuring from the replays very roughly the Savills time was 6m 6.5s and the final circuit took 3m 34s. The IGC time was 6m 6.7s and the final circuit took 3m 36s. Make of that what you will.

Maybe a better measure is The Storyteller. If you have him running the same in both races you can say that Bellshill and Road To Respect have come on 4 or 5 lengths. That would probably be accounted for by extra fitness for Bellshill and RTR avoiding the slips from the Savills.

Either way, even if he hasn't come on from the Savills, and he is in fine shape at the moment, Kemboy still holds yesterday's duo on the bare form. Cheltenham will be a proper test of jumping and a race to savour even before the Red Mills which should be even more informative than yesterday.
 
Interesting little stat:
None of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup had run within 33 days of the big day. The Red Mills Chase is 27 days before the Gold Cup.
 
Tied Cottage 1980 ran within two weeks in a 2 mile chase at Naas; Royal Frolic, Forgive n Forget and Alverton ran at Haydock Greenhall Whitney meet first Sat in March from memory and it worked for team Percy last two years 2017 within 16 days of Pertemps Final and again last year Red Mills.
Last year it stood to them the way snow came early March and upset a few final spins for folk.
 
Bregawn & Silver Buck both ran 12 days before a Gold Cup-Hereford and possibly Market Rasen-different Times.
 
archie said:
Interesting little stat:
None of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup had run within 33 days of the big day. The Red Mills Chase is 27 days before the Gold Cup.
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Going on from this, no Gold Cup winner this century has had his prep race after the second weekend in February.
Of the 18 winners:
9 hadn't raced since Christmas week
6 raced during the second weekend in February
2 raced mid January (Don Cossack in the Kinloch Brae and Long Run in the rearranged King George)
1 (Bobs Worth) went straight from the Hennessy on December 1st.
 
Maruco said:
Like nobody saw that coming! I just wish they'd be out in the open with this stuff.
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Have they not been open? JH regularly tweets updates seemingly being careful not to mislead. My understanding is that they were satisfied that he was in good shape and were waiting for suitable ground conditions for a prep race prior to Cheltenham. JH has repeatedly and recently said she was not prepared to risk him on unsuitable ground.
My guess ( no more than that!) is that they sent him out on a final workout that would have him fully fit to run over the coming weekend and that that has been too much for him. I’m sure that this happens in yards throughout the sport. What I am sure about is that she would not race him if she thought he was not up to it.
 
I certainly agree with the final point TS, but I like many have suspected he's been battling niggles related to the injury all season. Sizing John has been a horse that has relished better ground all his career, but he hasn't been deemed fit enough to run on it at any stage. So what is suitable ground? Is he not fit enough to run on good to soft? Would he have run on good to soft in the Gold Cup. I'm sure you see my point?
 
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