The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

[Frankel]

The reason Song For Someone and Navajo Pass were left gasping for air was they couldn't stomach the test.

I love your passion Hawk and your staunch defence, but just leave Song For Someone out of it. He was beaten before any kind of test was examined.

 

[Frankel]

There are several reasons why Goshen might not win at Cheltenham. He is 4/1, and it's a different test. But there isn't a horse in training that would have beaten him on Saturday, or got close to him.

This is the Champion thread, so any holes are what we are trying to find. What price did he go off at the weekend!

 

[HawkWing]

No. But buying that. Im not saying he ran to his best form. He is a real gusty mother and battled on when others would have thrown in the towel. Also best suited to 2m4f. Backed him at kempton last year where he was off the bridle over 2 and outpaced by chtbello and Diego du charmil before battling. The second best horse in the race ended up beating the third best horse in the race, who beat the fourth best horse in the race, behind Goshen. I'm sure the first mile, would have been a lot slower if Goshen wasn't there. NP would have tried to steal it and SFS would have found it easier to lay up closer. If you are going to beat him on a going day, it's going to hurt you.

 

[HawkWing]

This is the Champion thread, so any holes are what we are trying to find. What price did he go off at the weekend!

My main concern re Goshen is that his jumping won't be slick enough over the first mile. He will get a lead, sit 4 to 5 horses wide (cos he would like the space and the lack of any concern of jumping to the right, as if there would only be pressure on this up the straight). Challenge at the top of the hill. If he settles over the first two hurdles and even a little behind the bridle he is an in-running bet for me.

But Ideally he'd have more experience going into the race. Our Conor fell there, buveur dair fell there. It happens. If he stutters over a hurdle and has to make ground each time, there's a chance of losing pitch on good ground or becoming keen. If he settles, gets to the top of the hill in second and kicks early, I think he'll win.

 

[Beef or Salmon]

They lied over a heart condition because they were non-plussed on the performance!

lot of very passionate arguments being put forward here which is great to see.

But the quoted line above is doing you know favours Max, you cant just make someting up and try and pass it off as a fact.

 

[reet hard]

You beckoned?

I do wonder sometimes. I think at the drf on soft ground it would have been a cracking race between Goshen and honeysuckle. Would have been a completely different shape. As at Cheltenham Goshen will lead from 5f out and honeysuckle will go after him. On heavy or softer ground he breaks her, on better ground less certain.

The idea that he is somehow 'soft' like abracadbras is ridiculous. It's like I'm watching a different sport. It was only after I saw the state of the ground at wincanton that I punted on him. He is relentless. And can maintain a pace that few horses I've seen do. This was always there from when he first improved on the flat. The worse the ground, the harder the test, the more he wins by. The reason Song For Someone and Navajo Pass were left gasping for air was they couldn't stomach the test. Champion hurdle will be different. I just cannot see how anyone could put him in a dodgepot category.

I'll take all the even money match bet on abracadbras you have. I'd say abracadbras might be classier if you view classy as travelling off a strong pace and not finding. Abracadbras might outspeed him for 1/2f, but not over 2 and certainly not over 4.

Precisely why i'd favour Goshen over Honeysuckle.
For all the eulogising over the latter's ICH sectionals, what they don't tell is that she was basically unchallenged from about 3 out, and her victory more emphatic because of it.
Goshen, on the other hand was taken on for the lead for virtually the whole distance of his Supreme, and would almost certainly have won, barring his unfortunate fall.
Of the two, only one is likely (imo) to stage a repeat, come March

 

[Tanlic]

To me comparing Goshen to Honeysuckle 10/10 inc 6 GrADE 1's is a joke. 4/1 is the worst bet of the festival he has never faced anything of the class of the big 2 whi I reckon will eat him alive.....this is the Champion Hurdle not a sandown handicap where Goshen will end up running..trust me

 

[Maxbet]

Precisely why i'd favour Goshen over Honeysuckle.
For all the eulogising over the latter's ICH sectionals, what they don't tell is that she was basically unchallenged from about 3 out, and her victory more emphatic because of it.
Goshen, on the other hand was taken on for the lead for virtually the whole distance of his Supreme.

I know you meant Triumph...but therein tells another story or cliche...Goshen has never run on the Old Course. In fact, he's never finished a race on the New Course either, in 2 attempts...twice as many hurdles in the final mile at a much faster pace will put him under more pressure than he likes, a bit like his 2 flat runs he couldn't cope with. We can argue until Doomsday, people are not going to be swayed from their own opinions. D Day will be here soon...

 

[Maxbet]

The vet on course suspected there was a heart issue, when running their own tests, the Moores couldn't find anything.
He jumped the last in front, as shown in an earlier photo.

Lie was a bit strong and I retract that statement, but they did admit to finding nothing....The media played along with the heart issue.

 

[HawkWing]

I know you meant Triumph...but therein tells another story or cliche...Goshen has never run on the Old Course. In fact, he's never finished a race on the New Course either, in 2 attempts...twice as many hurdles in the final mile at a much faster pace will put him under more pressure than he likes, a bit like his 2 flat runs he couldn't cope with. We can argue until Doomsday, people are not going to be swayed from their own opinions. D Day will be here soon...

If you want to be pedantic about his course form (as if the triumph was evidence that he doesn't act at Cheltenham when it proves it's not a concern) he did finish in the international.

The other point is that anyone taking his flat runs literally isn't worth listening to.

 

[Maxbet]

Simon Rowlands's take:

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/23-February-2021/wincanton,-newbury-and-haydock

I think if he goes off and tries to make all, and Goshen and Not So Sleepy don't cut each other's throats, it's still going to take a lot of ball's to ride the sectionals correct. Goshen was 11 Length's to the good when he came down in the Triumph. The eventual winner had halved the distance that she had been held back when Goshen fell. When you compare the Triumph and the County videos, side be side, Saint Roi who was held up off a reasonable pace, cruises up to a 4-second advantage, probably equivalent to the time that would have been posted had Goshen stayed on his feet. Goshen didn't appear to be getting further away, and he still had the hill to tackle. Starting the video at the point where Burning Victory and Saint Roi jump the last at the same time, Saint Roi catches Goshen; he sprints 12 length's clear of Burning Victory and seemingly still on the bridle. Goshen needs the pack to fall into his trap and race from the off...but everyone knows that now...

 

[Maxbet]

If you want to be pedantic about his course form (as if the triumph was evidence that he doesn't act at Cheltenham when it proves it's not a concern) he did finish in the international.

The other point is that anyone taking his flat runs literally isn't worth listening to.

He was actually eased back, but because there were only five hurdles and non in the final 7 furlongs, he did look cooked, maybe he needs the hurdles..

I could say your not worth listening to. You call everything that is put up as an opinion, that's not in line with your thinking; a CLICHE...

 

[Grasshopper]

The place is awash in once-discarded and now de-crinkled Goshen ante-post slips. :lol:

 

[Maxbet]

The place is awash in once-discarded and now de-crinkled Goshen ante-post slips. :lol:

All the 6/1 start of the season one's :lol:

 

[reet hard]

I know you meant Triumph...but therein tells another story or cliche...Goshen has never run on the Old Course. In fact, he's never finished a race on the New Course either, in 2 attempts...twice as many hurdles in the final mile at a much faster pace will put him under more pressure than he likes, a bit like his 2 flat runs he couldn't cope with. We can argue until Doomsday, people are not going to be swayed from their own opinions. D Day will be here soon...

Where will this "much faster pace" stem from?
According to his RPR, Goshen has shown normal improvement from novice to 5yo, yet you reckon that will slow him down, on the sharper Old Course too, even though he's just skated around Wincanton?

 

[Maxbet]

Where will this "much faster pace" stem from?

The Old Course is a faster test, tighter and much sharper and less reliant on stamina, both have a steep uphill finish. The Triumph hurdle (New Course) often produces horses with stamina, it also favours the flat bred types with having such a long run to the last with so few jumps to make. Horses with a turn of foot are best suited to the Old course!

Goshen will have an advantage in pace-setting, but will he like turning left constantly?....we will have to wait and see...

edit: It's not just coincidental that all the speed races (2m) are run on the Old course over the first 2 days!

 

[barjon]

With all horses there are positives and negatives to be considered in weighing up their chances. So far as Goshen is concerned there are plenty in the negatives column - only 5, jumping not too slick, occasional tendency to go right, lacking experience of the run-in, the serious blip in form. In the positive column there is merely the fact that he has displayed time and again that he has an exceptional engine strong enough to leave everything he has faced so far toiling far, far behind or destroyed when they tried to match him. Last Saturday he smashed them again. Given their recent form there’s no good reason that the two very decent horses in there didn’t give their running other than that Goshen had them on the ropes.

He is probably the most exceptional young horses I have ever seen, but he does have to be extremely exceptional to win the CH at his age. In the words of Desert, I’m happy to pay to find out.

 

[Maxbet]

Where will this "much faster pace" stem from? yet you reckon that will slow him down, on the sharper Old Course too, even though he's just skated around Wincanton?

I have never said it will slow him down Reet.

I have talked about the cliche of his jumping out to the right at the end of his races when under the most pressure, which could slow him. A length lost at the last jumping level with Honeysuckle or Epatante could just be the decider....That's also assuming he is in the same form as Wetherby, not his prior mysterious ventures...you want 3/1...you take it.

The stamina requirement for horses to keep up on tight turning tracks is much less of a requirement

 

[Maxbet]

Onboard Goshen, Jamie Moore...who didn't feel for him last year. He isn't the best tactician, he's showed us he's a nervous wreck too, rocks around in the saddle. I thought for a second he was going to fall off at Wetherby when he started looking around....The pressure that kid will be under on the day will be immense...



edit: Question...Why do you think they changed the tactics in the international...what were the reasons for the Moore team to think they had to change things, what was the niggling doubt in their minds?

 

[Maruco]

The problem for Goshen is that Henry can dictate the pace of the race with Aspire Tower if needs be. There are other front runners, and there's no way Jamie Moore can aford to be out of the front two or three. Tactically De Bromhead can use Aspire Tower to take them along at a furious pace if something else doesn't.

I suspect this race will be won by a closer after a pace collapse. Honey will be behind the van with at least three or four ahead of her getting a nice tow, and Epatante will be held up. Depending just how fast they go depends on which one benefits most.

The problem Goshen has is he can't be held up and he has to be where the pace is, and I think it's highly likey to be fast and furious which will leave him vulnerable.

 

[Maruco]

Just to add to that as I don't think I explained it too well. Jamie Moore may be happy for Not So Sleepy to give him a lead, but it becomes a problem if Aspire Tower is eyeballing him at the same time. Potentially Silver Streak too. He won't be able to sit off all three of them, and the one thing that's apparent to me is Goshen needs racing room. Essentially he has to go with the pace the others set, and there are too many keen front runners.

 

[reet hard]

Onboard Goshen, Jamie Moore...who didn't feel for him last year. He isn't the best tactician, he's showed us he's a nervous wreck too, rocks around in the saddle. I thought for a second he was going to fall off at Wetherby when he started looking around....The pressure that kid will be under on the day will be immense...



edit: Question...Why do you think they changed the tactics in the international...what were the reasons for the Moore team to think they had to change things, what was the niggling doubt in their minds?

Possiby; they thought it too much of a stamina test with the missing hurdles. He is, after all, a speed horse (unlike Detroit City, for instance , a stayer on the flat, who was turned over at 6/4 in his CH bid, for that reason.

 

[reet hard]

Just to add to that as I don't think I explained it too well. Jamie Moore may be happy for Not So Sleepy to give him a lead, but it becomes a problem if Aspire Tower is eyeballing him at the same time. Potentially Silver Streak too. He won't be able to sit off all three of them, and the one thing that's apparent to me is Goshen needs racing room. Essentially he has to go with the pace the others set, and there are too many keen front runners.

Another possibility being owners/trainers of front-runners would see little point in taking him on.

 

[Maxbet]

Another possibility being owners/trainers of front-runners would see little point in taking him on.

I can buy into that, but with the exception of Petit Mouchoir....He will be there to upset Goshen and make sure its a real test for Abacadabras..

 

[Desert Orchid]

make sure its a real test for Abacadabras..

When it comes to a test, Aba is the equine equivalent of the school pupil who answers 90% of an exam paper but can't be arsed doing the final 10% because he thinks he's done enough. (I.e.... me as a kid!!)