The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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HawkWing said:
Lads, seriously. This is the same Aspire Tower that ran in the triumph, in which neither Goshen or Aspire Tower led - Allmankind led. Goshen sat third.
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Its the same Aspire Tower that De Bromhead said wasn't right on the day....you know similar to Goshen not being right in the International...
 
Maxbet said:
I just realised you obviously haven't read it properly....You sound like a prick now and you're making it personal...

The Old Course is a faster test, tighter and much sharper and less reliant on stamina, both have a steep uphill finish. The Triumph hurdle (New Course) often produces horses with stamina, it also favours the flat bred types with having such a long run to the last with so few jumps to make. Horses with a turn of foot are best suited to the Old course!
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Apologies, I said the Old Course.

However, the triumph New course, with its stiffer test of stamina, does not suit flat breds, as a rule, regardless of the number of jumps.
They usually are seen as having the extra turn of foot and as you say correctly, as a rule, are suited to the Old course.
 
The harder the test, the more he'll jump out to his right under pressure in the closing stages...A cliche I know, but he has done it in every race...
 
HawkWing said:
Apologies, I said the Old Course.

However, the triumph New course, with its stiffer test of stamina, does not suit flat breds, as a rule, regardless of the number of jumps.
They usually are seen as having the extra turn of foot and as you say correctly, as a rule, are suited to the Old course.
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I didn't say flat bred's with no stamina...it suits them because there's less jumping to be had when the race quickens up...

Goshen has an abundance of stamina in his pedigree..
 
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HawkWing said:
I realise you have no idea what you are saying. So, we'll leave it at that.
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Ran out of Cliche's have we..

You have denied every argument, and then throw insults...you obviously are a saw loser, you should pack up gambling altogether
 
For your obvious ignorance....Horses that are flat bred, doesn't imply that they are all Sprint types...Many flat bred horses have an abundance of stamina in them...but you know that...but prefer to drag the thread to the gutter because you cant accept other's opinions...

So I will leave it at that too
 
Maxbet said:
Why would it be a sacrifice...Have you ever known Petit Mouchoir to run differently than attack from the front...

He finished ahead of Silver Streak employing front running tactics last year...
Placed behind Beuveur D'air in his champion win...

Still only 9 years old
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It would be a sacrifice because it can run in a race where it isn't 100000/1 to win. The county hurdle. And that is where it does run.


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Aspire Tower was recently bought by Robcor for a couple of hundred grand and I doubt if they will be too anxious to sacrifice him to assist Kenny Alexander's Honeysuckle.
 
Grasshopper said:
All Grade 1 two-mile hurdlers, right enough.
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Interesting that you said this sarcastically, as you hadn't asked for a list of the Grade 1 hurdlers.

As you know though, Aspire Tower was second in a 2m Grade 1 a month ago. He also has won a 2m grade 2 this year. Song For Someone and Navajo Pass have won 2m Grade 2s in the last three months. And of course, Allmankind has won a Grade 1 chase over 2m this year. Havent you backed Song For Someone for the Champion hurdle?
 
Grasshopper said:
All Grade 1 two-mile hurdlers, right enough.
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Raises an interesting point.

Horses that competed in 2m Grade 1 UK hurdles this year:

Epatante
Sceau Royale
Ribble Valley
Voix de Reve
Silver Streak
Not So Sleepy
Ballyandy
Floressa
Diego du Charmil
 
The Fraud One landed a bucketload of G2 Hurdles, but was proven never good enough for a G1 at 2-miles.

I have indeed backed Song For Somone - each-way after the Ascot Hurdle, as I like to have a strong-stayer onside for the Champion Hurdle; such are the usual demands of the race. My principal bets in the race were on Saint Roi.

As we know, Saint Roi won’t run, and I’m expecting to be running for place-money only with SFS - something I accepted as likely when I struck the bet, unless the race cut-up particularly badly.

I’m entirely sanguine about this situation, and accept that I will need to find something else. Whilst I do so, I’ll try and avoid analysing the race in the way that some appear to be doing i.e. making straw-man arguments in favour of their preferred selection, on the back of a race which is about as far removed from what we can expect at Cheltenham, as is possible to consider.

Can Goshen win? He will clearly go there with a chance, but if you bring-up the same list of horses again as evidence that he’s ready to do so, I expect my next reply will be equally as sarcastic.
 
Grasshopper said:
The Fraud One landed a bucketload of G2 Hurdles, but was proven never good enough for a G1 at 2-miles.

I have indeed backed Song For Somone - each-way after the Ascot Hurdle, as I like to have a strong-stayer onside for the Champion Hurdle; such are the usual demands of the race. My principal bets in the race were on Saint Roi.

As we know, Saint Roi won’t run, and I’m expecting to be running for place-money only with SFS - something I accepted as likely when I struck the bet, unless the race cut-up particularly badly.

I’m entirely sanguine about this situation, and accept that I will need to find something else. Whilst I do so, I’ll try and avoid analysing the race in the way that some appear to be doing i.e. making straw-man arguments in favour of their preferred selection, on the back of a race which is about as far removed from what we can expect at Cheltenham, as is possible to consider.

Can Goshen win? He will clearly go there with a chance, but if you bring-up the same list of horses again as evidence that he’s ready to do so, I expect my next reply will be equally as sarcastic.
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Where are the strawman arguments?

I havent recommended to anyone that Goshen will win the champion hurdle. I think Honeysuckle is very good and love her prep. I have said that if its on heavy, which is unlikely, Goshen would win, and that the stronger the pace the better the chance. I havent had an ante post bet in the race. I have responded to those knocking the horse with more confidence than logic. Parrotting nonsense clearly disproven by simply watching the races.

So...in case I cant cope with the saracastic response, I'll stand well back

"Goshen needed to beat ________ to show me, Grasshopper, that he is ready to have a chance in the champion hurdle."

Fill in the blank or will you admit that it is you that is making the strawman argument?
 
Haven’t I just already said that Goshen has his chance? I think I may even have said it twice now.

Here’s my summary.

Wincanton showed that he appears to be back bang in-form. He ran his race without incident, and as far as preps go, backers are entitled to be happy.

What is pointless though (imo) is measuring how far SFS and NP were beaten, and trying to use that as some sort of marker as to his level. SFS was always going to be vulnerable at a trip that is actually short of 2-miles on a speed-track, and any chance he may have had was blown when he wasn’t able to set the pace. Equally, he quite possibly isn’t a genuine top-end 2-miler anyway; the International being something of a stamina test.

NP basically theived the Haydock trial, and was way over-rated as a result.

The Kingwell told us three things in my view; Goshen has a leg on each corner, he has left his Bula form well behind, and he should be there or thereabouts, if he runs his race at the Festival.

FWIW, Honeysuckle would be my idea of the winner, but she’s very narrow on price, and is only borderline backable for me. I described the CH to Slim recently as a pig of a race, and I’m not sure my view will change much between now and then. I doubt very much whether we will genuinely be raving about the winner; whoever crosses the line first.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Haven’t I just already said that Goshen has his chance? I think I may even have said it twice now.

Here’s my summary.

Wincanton showed that he appears to be back bang in-form. He ran his race without incident, and as far as preps go, backers are entitled to be happy.

What is pointless though (imo) is measuring how far SFS and NP were beaten, and trying to use that as some sort of marker as to his level. SFS was always going to be vulnerable at a trip that is actually short of 2-miles on a speed-track, and any chance he may have had was blown when he wasn’t able to set the pace. Equally, he quite possibly isn’t a genuine top-end 2-miler anyway; the International being something of a stamina test.

NP basically theived the Haydock trial, and was way over-rated as a result.

The Kingwell told us three things in my view; Goshen has a leg on each corner, he has left his Bula form well behind, and he should be there or thereabouts, if he runs his race at the Festival.

FWIW, Honeysuckle would be my idea of the winner, but she’s very narrow on price, and is only borderline backable for me. I described the CH to Slim recently as a pig of a race, and I’m not sure my view will change much between now and then. I doubt very much whether we will genuinely be raving about the winner; whoever crosses the line first.
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And I think that is fair, and not a million miles away from my view. And its a genuine discussion on it, rather than horseshit, of which I've contributed to over the last few days.

I don't rate NP highly and agree re Haydock. I do think he was hoping to do the same here. I dont think that SFS was well suited to the race - reminded me of Melodic Rendezvous efforts in it - I'd forgotten it was the Kingwell SFS won last year at Kempton when he was completely outpaced. As an aside, I dont think that the Bula was a stamina test, (7 in a heap bypassing the last) but a balls out character test of a sprint from the top of the hill.

However, I do think that Goshen forced them to go harder than they wanted. And NP, unable to get to coast as he did at Haydock (and Friend or Foe to a lesser extent) folded. SFS pretty much ran his Melodic Rendezvous race and isnt quite up to the class of Goshen. Will win plenty more Grade 2s due to his genuiness. To my eye, how Goshen finished so full of running, tanking to the line is what impressed me most. I dont think there is a horse in training that could have beaten him on Saturday. There are countless number of horses that after they are let down having got on a roll, never get back to when they were irrepressible. That was what I feared Moore had done. The final half furlong (as much as anything) showed me he was back.

I couldnt care about the ratings, I said that those that do will have a job to rank it lowly. We had one contributor point out that SFS ran to 121 using time analysis. As Maurice pointed out in the Thoughts of the handicappers, they didnt explain why they included the caveat of the ground deteriorating throughout the day. The reason is that if they were to explain the Kingwell on regular time analysis, SFS and NP would have struggled to win the novice, and it makes a mockery of using time as an analysis tool. Time was a strawman. It doesnt make Goshen's performance more impressive to me if he was rated 160 or 170. No explanation has been given why they chose 164.

You are incorrect in saying that Im viewing this on the basis of Wincanton alone. It was all of his races last year, where the same arguments re pace of the triumph was supposed to upset him.

Finally, whether he can do to Honeysuckle and hold off Epatante the way he dominates remains to be seen. But I think he might be a different species of animal. I've missed the prices this year, am happy with 100/30 for Saturday and the clever way would be to bet in running.
 
Fair enough. Just a couple of caveats.

I wasn’t referring to you particularly, re how Goshen was being assessed.

I don’t see how you can say authoritatively that no other horse in training would have lived with Goshen, given the other horses clearly - or the principals, at least - didn’t give their running (reasons are self-evident). I just don’t think it’s a race to take a particularly strong view on, beyond the self-evident fact that Goshen pissed it.

As I said before, the race is basically unrateable in any true sense (other than perhaps on times, which are organically-flawed, imo), hence the complete punt at Goshen’s revised mark.
 
Goshen on that ground with a strong pace and a small field is Nadal at the French Open sort of ideal. Its a bit of hyperbole but I'm happy to pin my colours to that mast.

I do think there is a tendency not to give Goshen credit for forcing opponents out of their comfort zone. Whether he can do that on good ground, at the highest level, I dont know. He will be giving up 3-4l perhaps by racing wide.
 
With three more weeks of this guaranteed up and down the lands, I ask again, who starts favourite on the day?
 
JamesRB said:
still in hope that abacabras does a jezki and leaves his season long form behind, gets his ground and a pace to aim at and produces something more like his supreme run and it's enough to win it, or at least place

probably a fools hope
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Keep the faith. Expect to see a different beast at Cheltenham!
 
Slim said:
Honeysuckle must be v short to go off fav.
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Will JP have 100K on Epatante.

Will the Irish Honeysuckle fans back her.

Or will Goshen fans make amends for the triumph last year by smashing up their hero.

Fascinating.
 
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