The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

frontrunner said:
Both horses are 7 years old and still novices , RP has more experience but if I had to choose who would be most likely to win this years Gold Cup its a no brainer -The Monk
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I would definitely take the opposite view.

Monkfish is a high class novice, there's no denying it. But it's quite a leap from novice to open championship standard.

On my figures, which vary in scale a few pounds from ORs, RPRs and Timeform ratings - the last-named strike me as unusually conservative with novices - Monkfish has made the expected 10lbs improvement from hurdler to novice chaser. I had him on 152+p for winning the Albert Bartlett and would have him [provisionally] on the 162+p mark for yesterday. Willie Mullins was quick yesterday to suggest he didn't think Latest Exhibition quite ran his race. He's usually quite forthcoming in these post-race interviews and his insight into how a race has unfolded is, for me at any rate, an invaluable perspective.

I would see Monkfish going on to post a mark in the mid-high 160s at Cheltenham, maybe even hitting 170, which would be among the best RSA winners, so I do rate him.

But for me, what Royale Pagaille has done in his last two races is already at least around the 170 mark, backed up by ridiculously high time ratings, with the prospect of more to come. He could be a 175 this season, which is huge for a novice. I have concerns about his stamina, though. The Haydock race was a good half-furlong shorter than advertised but it did look like the further he went the better he travelled.

I would also reckon if Ricci and Mullins thought had the winning of the Gold Cup they'd be sending Monkfish for it and leaving Royale Pagaille to hoover up whichever of the novice chases they wish.

That might still happen, I suppose.
 
Have to say I think 162+p could end-up looking very conservative a mark for Monkfish, DO. That wasn’t even his trip yesterday.

RP clearly very, very good, but my nerves still jangle about dominating performances at Haydock (not that he doesn’t have other top-form elsewhere to draw on, of course).
 
The idea that Willie would go for any race bar the easiest one is just wrong. Ricci gets absolutely no say in what race Willie runs them in.
 
There is no way on earth Monkfish goes for Gold Cup this season. It’s not in Willie’s MO and he trains the favourite who’s going for the hat trick.

Royale Pagaille on the other hand is a novice in name only, having already had 11 runs over fences (inc France), won’t beat Monkfish in an RSA so has a choice of NH Chase or Gold Cup and with a rating of 166 (warranted or not) it’s a no brainier to go for the Gold Cup rather than wait until next year when he’d likely face Monkfish & Envoi Allen
 
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Grasshopper said:
Have to say I think 162+p could end-up looking very conservative a mark for Monkfish, DO. That wasn’t even his trip yesterday.

RP clearly very, very good, but my nerves still jangle about dominating performances at Haydock (not that he doesn’t have other top-form elsewhere to draw on, of course).
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I don't have my own figures immediately to hand but for the sake of illustration:

ORs going into yesterday:
Monkfish 158
Latest Ex 153
(Royale Pagaille 166)

Timeform:
Monkfish 155p
Latest Ex (not listed at 152)
(Royale Pagaille 163p)

As I said earlier, Willie Mullins's immediate reaction was that Latest Exhibition didn't quite run his race yesterday so I would hesitate to take the distance between them literally.

Andy Dufresne (OR 149) looked off for his life to me but was treading water from two out, suggesting maybe he didn't stay in this strong race.

It makes it a hard race to weigh up accurately but there's no doubting the visual impression and the likelihood that Monkfish is considerably better than the number (hence the +p).
 
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Just to be clear I don't think there's a cats chance in hell Monkfish goes for the GC. I was just expressing an opinion that I believe Monkfish would be a more likely winner than Royal Pagaille.
 
frontrunner said:
Just out of interest DO where would you have Monkfish finishing if he had run in the Irish Gold Cup yesterday?
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Good question, frontrunner.

The races are hardly comparable given that they're over different trips and without knowing the pace in each I wouldn't want to commit to an answer.

Let me get back to you later in the week, by which time I'll have had a chance to double-check collateral lines, times, sections, etc.
 
frontrunner said:
Just out of interest DO where would you have Monkfish finishing if he had run in the Irish Gold Cup yesterday?
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Desert Orchid said:
Good question, frontrunner.

The races are hardly comparable given that they're over different trips and without knowing the pace in each I wouldn't want to commit to an answer.
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Save you some time Do:

From the first fence that both fields jumped at the start of their respective races, which was the 4th fence down the back straight. Monkfish gained a length between each fence. The entire novice field was 5 seconds ahead of the Gold cup field after 8 fences, the whole field past the line 5 seconds ahead at the winning post....

Not much to draw from it other than, it would suggest the gold cup field took it easy and their race turned into somewhat of a second-half race, sprint, which in turn could explain Minella Indo's poor run. Lack of stamina was probably not the cause, rather the lack of real pace that didn't require it, was...
 
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Maxbet said:
The entire novice field was 5 seconds ahead of the Gold cup field after 8 fences, the whole field past the line 5 seconds ahead at the winning post....
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Much appreciated, Maxbet.

Wouldn't you kind of expect that since it was over a shorter trip so they would be going that fraction faster?

Ruby Walsh often talks about horses going up in trip and says the pace is maybe only 1mph slower but it makes a big difference in terms of comfort zone.
 
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All scratched from CGC

Acapella Bourgeois Bristol de Mai Castlebawn West Itchy Feet Lake View Lad Lord du Mesnil Mister Malarky Monalee Presenting Percy Spyglass Hill Terrefort Waiting Patiently
 
If I was Nolan I'd be tempted to supplement Latest Exhibition.

It's hardly a vintage looking Gold Cup, and next years is likely to be red hot.

If people are saying Monkfish could win the Gold Cup (I agree there's no chance he goes), then Latest Exhibition would have place prospects at least.
 
Cheltenham Gold Cup – Friday, 19 March
Al Boum Photo
Allaho
A Plus Tard
Aso
Battleoverdoyen
Black Op
Burrows Saint
Champ
Cyrname
Delta Work
Frodon
Imperial Aura
Kemboy
Lostintranslation
Master Tommytucker
Melon
Minella Indo
Native River
Real Steel
Royale Pagaille
Saint Calvados
Samcro
Santini
Simply The Betts
The Conditional
Vinndication
Yorkhill ...Retired
Magic of Light
Shattered Love
 
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As previously confirmed, Clan Des Obeaux will not be going to Cheltenham this season with connections looking at Grade 1 targets at Aintree and Punchestown later in the campaign.
 
Champ has been declared for the Denman and takes up c. 30% of the book. We know the race is going to be run a week later (if at all) due to weather so there is no way on earth that Hendo will have him 100% for what will be possibly than 4 weeks until the Gold Cup, if the race is run next Sunday.

Now the confirmations are in and we're at the NRNB stage of the Denman chase, the 15/8 with Hill about Clan Des Obeaux - who isn't going to Cheltenham - is a great bet, especially if they carry over bets to a rearranged race day. Anybody know if Hills do that ?

Lost in translation has serious question marks to answer and Kalashnikov doubtful stamina at this level.
 
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wilsonl said:
Champ has been declared for the Denman and takes up c. 20% of the book. We know the race is going to be run a week later (if at all) due to weather so there is no way on earth that Hendo will have him 100% for what will be possibly than 4 weeks until the Gold Cup, if the race is run next Sunday.

Now the confirmations are in and we're at the NRNB stage of the Denman chase, the 15/8 with Hill about Clan Des Obeaux - who isn't going to Cheltenham - is a great bet, especially if they carry over bets to a rearranged race day. Anybody know if Hills do that ?

Lost in translation has serious question marks to answer and Kalashnikov doubtful stamina at this level.
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According to the Paranoid Ol Git, He's given Champ a Simulation race over fully 3 miles...if you can believe it; apparently, two opponent's swapping the baton at halfway...A bit unlike Hendo to actually throw away his excuse in advance.
 
wilsonl said:
Now the confirmations are in and we're at the NRNB stage of the Denman chase, the 15/8 with Hill about Clan Des Obeaux - who isn't going to Cheltenham - is a great bet, especially if they carry over bets to a rearranged race day. Anybody know if Hills do that ?
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Wouldn't they be entitled to apply R4 if Champ didn't turn up for the rearranged race?
 
wilsonl said:
Now the confirmations are in and we're at the NRNB stage of the Denman chase, the 15/8 with Hill about Clan Des Obeaux - who isn't going to Cheltenham - is a great bet, especially if they carry over bets to a rearranged race day. Anybody know if Hills do that?
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Bet365 will settle all as a non-runner if the meeting is abandoned. Hills will wait to see if the race is rerun to settle. If it's run at Newbury, all bet's stand!... if it were run at say Ascot the following week, then all bet's settled as non-runners!

Desert Orchid said:
Wouldn't they be entitled to apply R4 if Champ didn't turn up for the rearranged race?
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They would for bet's struck from today onwards, but prior to today, the above rules apply!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wouldn't they be entitled to apply R4 if Champ didn't turn up for the rearranged race?
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They have to run him but he won't be there to win. If he can win at 70-80% (which I sincerely doubt) then he'll take some stopping in the Gold Cup with a clear round.

I've taken the 15/8 anyhow in the hope the race is re-run at Newbury (money back if it isn't) and Champ turns up just to get a run into him. Both likely scenarios IMO. 7/4 now and 13/8 elsewhere
 
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Saturday's Newbury card confirmed for a week Sunday if Saturday's is cancelled.

Henderson: - "With Altior and Champ they're preparing for something else so it's important to get them in"
 
Maxbet said:
Bet365 will settle all as a non-runner if the meeting is abandoned. Hills will wait to see if the race is rerun to settle. If it's run at Newbury, all bet's stand!... if it were run at say Ascot the following week, then all bet's settled as non-runners!

They would for bet's struck from today onwards, but prior to today, the above rules apply!
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Hills have voided my bet
 
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