The Road To The Arkle Chase

Fago turned over at 3's on this afternoon and looks unlikely for Cheltenham. (what a shocking run Tom Seagull's having with his Cheltenham picks...)

Looks like it’ll be another small field Arkle, but still fascinating as long as the top 2 turn up. I’m on Overturn AP and think (hope) it’s close between them on the day
 
I was at an "evening with Nicky Henderson" thing on Tuesday and he was more bullish about Simonsig than any other horse. He raved about him. Hes very, very sweet on him and said something like he could be one of the best he's ever had. He also, when pressed, said that if all went well (i.e. Simonsig winning the Arkle and SS winning the QM) there was likely to be "a hell of a clash" (direct quote) next season.

He also said SS would be sticking firmly to 2 miles and will swerve Aintree for Punchestown.
 
Fago misses Cheltenham.
Revised prices
Simonsig 8/13
Overturn 11/4
Arvika. 8/1
Captain Conan 10/1
Oscars well 20's
Name your price bar.
Wouldn't be surprised to see 5 turn up.
 
links781 said:
Fago misses Cheltenham.
Revised prices
Simonsig 8/13
Overturn 11/4
Arvika. 8/1
Captain Conan 10/1
Oscars well 20's
Name your price bar.
Wouldn't be surprised to see 5 turn up.
Click to expand...
conan goes jewson and don't think oscars well is even making the trip over

3 runner race?! guess one or two others turn up for prize money
 
Not sure what the prize money goes down to but only a handful I reckon.who knows what could happen with 2 front runners in the field #carnage
 
While I've aleady backed him AP this race could be a pefect 'bet on the day' race as if seems likely, Hills continue with their offer of money back as a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd, Overturn would be a bet to nothing.

Can't see him not being in the first two.

Lee
 
He could be out of the 2 very easily if Simonsig can get to him by the time they reach the top of the hill.

Overturn to win must go off like a bat out of hell then quicken up and put more than 10 lengths between him and the rest to win this imo. If he can keep a bit of distance between himself and Simonsig until the top of the hill then go for broke downhill I think he'll win but if Simonsig is bang there with him at the top of the hill there will be only one winner and Oveturn could burst a gut trying to keep tabs on him.

As we saw in the Tingle Creek when that happens as sure as hell something picks you off. I imagine that's the way Hill's are thinking apart from the fact even if he does finish 2nd and they return your stake you'll only punt it again anyway.
 
Spot on. Overturn will be ridden to win the race. If he's not good enough he'll be vulnerable to something ridden to place, a la Sanctuaire being caught by Kumbeshwar.
 
I completely disagree.

Having made all he was flat to the boards last year when ROR went for home early last year but still galloped all the way to the line.

This year's Arkle is going to be dire in terms of strength in depth. The majority of the currently quoted runners will have been re-routed elsewhere so what's going to be running on past the McCain horse ?

Arvika (if he's still standing) - no way. Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar couldn't last year so what chance him.

I actually think Simonsig will sit in his slipstream and ease past as they jump the 2nd last but unlike a lot of horses Overturn simply isn't the kind to completely fold when he's beaten.

Comparing him to the rogue that is Sanctuaire is unfair on a horse that has made his name by being as genuine as they come, with plenty of talent to boot.

No way is he out of the first 2.

Lee
 
You're probably right if it end up a close run race or Overturn Wins but good horses who take on hot pots end up getting caught by inferior animals every day and your confidence is bordering on insanity if you think it can't happen because it looks that way on paper.

Last year he set a steady pacee and was never more than 2 lengths ahead of Rock On Ruby he tries that with Simonsig he'll be eaten alive unless Simonsig is not the horse we think he is.

When he did set off like the clappers the year before he was fully 8 to 10 lengths ahead of the main bunch and once passed he slowly but surely got further and further behind in the end being passed by a horse now rated 20lbs below him.....what you say can't happen did in that race.


Sanctuaire did absolutely nothing wrong and ran his heart out in the Tingle Creek rogue or no rogue. When he was ridden more patiently behind Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham kumbushwar never got near him but lo and behold both Somersby and Sanctuaire were so goosed a 138 rated horse meeting them at levels ran past them both.

Go right back to two of the best chasers of all time Arkle and Mill House, Mill House went head to head with Arkle in the Gallagher Gold Cup and was so tired by the end Rondetto walked past him to take second. Mill House could have given Rondetto 2 stone and beat him 20 lengths without Arkle being involved.

McCain has made it perfectly clear he has no intentions of playing cat and mouse and has even dared anything that thinks they can lie up with Overturn over the first 3 to try. It's a dangerous ploy but his only one and the others will be aware that if he goes that half stride too fast he could either run himself or Simonsig into the ground and they'll be there like little ferrets waiting to pounce, as they are only going there for the place money anyway.

Hope he does the business for you as I backed him ew at 14/1 but I am not exuding confidence that I'll be collecting and I have 3 places not 2.
 
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I remember you tipping him up months back on TRF but it took me a while to give him a chance.

I've firmly been in the Simonsig camp since he was running all over Fingal Bay at Sandown only to find nothing at the end but I just can't have it that McCain is going there with not much hope and a belief that there's only one way to beat the favourite.

He's been quoted as saying why should we be afraid of Simonsig when we've just been second in a Champion Hurdle ?

I'm of the opinion by the way - as many are - that Simonsig would have gone close in the Champion Hurdle himself had he gone for it this year but the fact is we don't know for sure.

Overturn on the other hand has proven it so I just don't buy into the fact that the trainer will sacrifice a chance of winning by going off too fast - regardless of what has been stated in the press. As with his other comment regarding 2nd in a Champion, this will just be mind games (probably inherited from his old man) to cause concerns for the other trainers worrying about a 2 mile novice chase at breakneck speed over some of the toughest fences in the country, on ground quicker than their horses will be used to. Especially given the way Overturn jumps.

There could be as much contribution to Overturn's suggested tactics as there is to Simonsig as to why trainers will be lookign at the Jewson.


When he was beaten in 2011 he was a 40/1 shot (deserted by Maguire) and nothing like the matured hurdler he went on to become but even if he does go off too quick look back at the times of the 2011 & 2012 runnings of the Champion. The 2011 by comparison was slow (slower than an admittedly high class Supreme) whereas he put up an improved performance off a faster pace last year, suggesting his stamina based flat speed will stand him in good stead.


Listen, financially I'm actually marginally better off if Simonsig wins and have backed Overturn E/W @ 7s so I would settle for 3rd.

Don't think it will happen though.

Lee
 
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I could never understand those who said he didn't have an Arkle profile whatever the hell that is. He was a far superior jumper of a hurdle than Simonsig was who tended to clout the odd one.

It was for that very reason Barry said he should run in the Neptune "To help his jumping" If I had backed him that would worry me when you consider how fast they are going to in the Arkle. One mistake is all it takes.

I'm not sure finishing second in the Champion Hurdle means DMC should not be afraid of Simonsig the thing looks a beast to me and he should be very afraid.

My hope is they throw caution to the wind and let Overturn do what he does best. No fancy tactics change nothing and I think he'll win. He is without a shadow of a doubt the only real challenge Simonsig has had to face and they should treat him with utter contempt. Just forget he"s there, run their own race which will either be good enough or not..

He may well beat Overturn but hopefully it will not be because they come up with some silly master plan that ruins any chance they have

Anyway it would make life more interesting if Overturn wins and he and Sprinter Sacre met in next years Tingle Creek
 
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I think we may get our wish,don't think that it can be ridden any other way to conceivably beat simonsig.looking back at all of his wins flat and hurdles soon led or made all appearing in 90% of the descriptions.
 
Overturn lacks a natural change of gear, so has to depend on pace to win his races. That pace wasn't enough to win him a Champion Hurdle, and with more, and bigger, obstacles to break up the pace in the Arkle, I'd doubt he'll be winning that either.
He stays 2m+ on the flat, and a 2m good ground chase run at Championship pace will prove altogether too sharp for him, no matter how big a lead he gets early.
 
Looking back again at Overturn's chases he's jumping isn't all that. I've put him up EW ante-post. At this stage would be delighted to get away with the place part.
 
out of the two of them simonsig has aleady posted the better topspeed figures.

up front arek legonaire is going to push overturn hard for the lead

cheltenham is not a natural front runners track

overturn will start making mistakes and i can see about three from home simonsig taking command from a tiring overturn
ballygreen has already achieved good topspeed figures this season and he may out perform expectations
 
prince regent said:
out of the two of them simonsig has aleady posted the better topspeed figures.

up front arek legonaire is going to push overturn hard for the lead

cheltenham is not a natural front runners track

overturn will start making mistakes and i can see about three from home simonsig taking command from a tiring overturn
ballygreen has already achieved good topspeed figures this season and he may out perform expectations
Click to expand...


I like your theory. There is some mileage in it. Bailey Green w/o Simosig e/w could be a cracking play when the markets up.
 
I'd be ever so slightly inclined to say fookin bullshit :lol: But of course I would never say that.

Arvika Ligeonniere wouldn't be able to keep up with Overturn over the first three fences it would be like racing a tank against a mini cooper. Overturn has bags of speed and won over 7 furlongs on the flat. He's Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Won the Chester Cup, The Nothumberland plate plus he stuffed Binocular in te Fighting Fifth......to short for him? You have got to be joking..He could do with out that hill being there. If it were 1m6furlong he'd be odds on too win

Arvika Ligeonniere isn't slow but when he went 20 lengths clear 3 races back he was given a soft lead it wasn't that he went off a million miles an hour. The rest were all being retrained.

If he does try and go head to head from the outset he's the one who could end up on the floor because he's the one who will be getting stretched not Overturn. I'll be amazed if Ruby even tries to make it. I reckon he'll sit off the pace and won't make a move until he decides if Overturn is showing signs of stopping or not.
 
Correct-Arvika won't be leading over the first.Beneficient has overacheived and would be my idea of an each way bet at 33s.
 
Tony Martin doesn't want to run Benefficient at Cheltenham and would rather wait until Aintree. The owners are from the US and want Cheltenham runners so he'll be running there anyway - would much rather wait for him to run in the Manifesto at Aintree and back him for that myself.

Martin
 
Last I read Luke Tony Martin wasn't too keen on running him at Cheltenham or against Simonsig because he faltered in the closing stages there last season.

That said he is still 4th fav on the machine and he also said he would be ridden for place money and he's mentioned running in the Jewson

Unless he's said he's going for sure I'd wait until the day as he hardly likely to be any shorter
 
Tanlic said:
I'd be ever so slightly inclined to say fookin bullshit :lol: But of course I would never say that.

Arvika Ligeonniere wouldn't be able to keep up with Overturn over the first three fences it would be like racing a tank against a mini cooper. Overturn has bags of speed and won over 7 furlongs on the flat. He's Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Won the Chester Cup, The Nothumberland plate plus he stuffed Binocular in te Fighting Fifth......to short for him? You have got to be joking..He could do with out that hill being there. If it were 1m6furlong he'd be odds on too win

Arvika Ligeonniere isn't slow but when he went 20 lengths clear 3 races back he was given a soft lead it wasn't that he went off a million miles an hour. The rest were all being retrained.

If he does try and go head to head from the outset he's the one who could end up on the floor because he's the one who will be getting stretched not Overturn. I'll be amazed if Ruby even tries to make it. I reckon he'll sit off the pace and won't make a move until he decides if Overturn is showing signs of stopping or not.
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Overturn's hurdles record over sharp tracks is poor, winning just once in 5 attempts, & that against rank opposition in a Perth handicap. For reasons already explained, his pace will not be nearly the same advantage over fences it is over hurdles, and if you think winning 3 uncompetitive chases at long odds-on equates to running the legs off top class novice chasers, then you go ahead and back him.
Then we'll sit back and see who's talking shite..:lol:
 
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