The Road To The Arkle Chase

reet hard said:
Overturn's hurdles record over sharp tracks is poor, winning just once in 5 attempts, & that against rank opposition in a Perth handicap. For reasons already explained, his pace will not be nearly the same advantage over fences it is over hurdles, and if you think winning 3 uncompetitive chases at long odds-on equates to running the legs off top class novice chasers, then you go ahead and back him.
Then we'll sit back and see who's talking shite..:lol:
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I backed him before he jumped a fence because I have vision:D I'd be over the moon with a place.

I don't think his sharp track record give a true reflection of his ability over hurdles. He's a Chester Cup winner so you can't say he doesn't handle sharp types of courses with real conviction.

Not that it matter as Cheltenham is far from sharp.

As Nicky said there would have to be something very wrong if he can poach a huge lead on Simonsig but he may not have to as long as he goes a strong pace the onus will be on Simonsig to keep his jumping together at a speed he has never traveled at before.........He's got the worlds best NH Jockey on board at presenting a horse at a fence so you'd think if anyone can get him round trouble free it's him. However no matter how good Nicky Henderson is he would be more confident had got one decent race into him against something that would have stretched him.......All he's had is 2easy schooling sessions and the errors he's made over hurdles would worry me and you can bet it worries NH even if he claims it doesn't.
 
Fist
The ' sharp track' emphasis was to show his pace isn't such an advantage when he can't stretch his opposition, and a 19f flat race would hardly constitute a speed test, no matter where it was run.
I recall having similar reservations last year about a 'buzz horse' from the same stable, with a very similar profile, and long-time favourite for the same race, whose limitations were so cruelly exposed, even over further.
Don't say you weren't warned. ;)
 
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Finally managed to have a proper look at the form. It really is all about the big two, isn't it?

While the Irish form seems to have more in-depth substance to it, the sheer winning distances of Overturn and Simonsig against opponenets with decent ORs simply makes you sit up and take notice. On the other hand, Hinterland was noted easing down 20 lengths against Simonsig so you have to take that line with a pinch of salt.

Overturn has the speed. Would Simonsig have been up to harrying him over 2m over hurdles? I doubt it. Overturn's CH chances two years ago were sacrificed on the Peddlers Cross altar. Either that or it was an unusually rank ride from Lee. We saw the real Overturn last year with PC elsewhere.

Simonsig has been more sheltered in his upbringing and may have the more scope for improvement in this sphere, especially given the quality with which he can be compared at home.

It's a genuinely intriguing contest and if both run their best it might be the race of the week. I think they should be much closer to each other in the market than they are and at the odds Overturn is the value bet but that doesn't mean he'll win.
 
Apparently NH told a Festival Preview audience in Glasgow the other night that Simonsig is "one of the best ten horses I've ever trained" and as I posted weeks ago at that time Simonsig was "all over" Sprinter Sacre on the gallops at Seven Barrows according to a lad I know who rides out there.

Simonsig in a canter for me :ninja:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Apparently NH told a Festival Preview audience in Glasgow the other night that Simonsig is "one of the best ten horses I've ever trained" and as I posted weeks ago at that time Simonsig was "all over" Sprinter Sacre on the gallops at Seven Barrows according to a lad I know who rides out there.

Simonsig in a canter for me :ninja:
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Pinch of salt there DG surely ?
 
He wouldn't be within a stone of Sprinter on a racecourse imo and I certainly wouldn't put half speed gallops up as a reason to back Simonsig who a real handful and doesn't settle at home anywhere near as well as Sprinter Sacre does.

I'm not disagreeing that Simonsig may well win in a canter as surely he will be able to keep tabs on Overturn? but it has to be down to which horse jumps best at speed.

Simonsig is the one with the potential to become a superstar and it would be great for racing if he did win in a canter but I am not ultra confident about him or Overturn being the one who comes out on top.

Can't see for the life of me why you are so confident in what on paper looks to be the most intriguing race of the festival.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by granger View Post
Has Ruby confirmed who he will be aboard?


Fago is out so does he have any alternative to Arvika ?

Yes but the stewards may not be too pleased when they find Barry Geraghty bound and gagged in the back of a horse box :lol:
 
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Tanlic said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by granger View Post
Has Ruby confirmed who he will be aboard?


Fago is out so does he have any alternative to Arvika ?

Yes but the stewards may not be too pleased when they find Barry Geraghty bound and gagged in the back of a horse box :lol:
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In which case AP rather than Ruby would surely be the prime suspect !:lol:
 
Tap Knight appeared to have chances in both the Jewson and Byrne Group and no obvious chance in the Arkle. So what race does JP put him in? I suppose ante-post punters can only be thankful that JP doesn't have horses with Mullins as singularly they are a total nightmare.
 
TreeTangle
You're getting wound up. Primary aim of this week must be to enjoy it.
Riding plans for this week have totally screwed my AP book and lessons have been re-learned. Damn and blast certainly but hey whatever I'm going to enjoy it. Can't let stupidity, duplicity and greed of others get in the way.
 
I think Simonsig is an absolute penalty kick in this. If I was to have a bet, would people recommend taking the 4/6 now, or do you think 8/11 or better will be available tomorrow morning?
 
The small field is only going o play into the front twos hands.Ive backed overturn but I find it hard to believe that simonsig won't have the engine to go with it.4/6 might look big by tomorrow.Think it will be in most people's l15's
 
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with all the hype it seems anything short of a lap of honour won't suffice. suspect that will be the case though.

at the end of the day a novice jumping round cheltenham on the back of 2 starts over fences shouldn't ever be as short at 4/9 really. but it seems as though its just a case of putting in a clean round.
 
But he only needs to jump round. Overturn will be inconvinienced by the ground. I can see the pros getting stuck in at 4/7 or better.
 
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