The Road to the Grand National 2010

Jayz! I thought he was going to be a guest caller for a minute! I see he has his own topic with Suny, though, thank God.
 
Interesting that you make Royal Rosa so inferior to stablemate Abbeybraney - Johnson quoted as saying he'll pull Abbey out if RR needs only 1 more to get a run.
 
I suppose if I went back far enough I could find a rating that would give RR a shout but we're talking quite a long time. Having said that, I have to say Abbeybraney struck me as being very cleverly campaigned for the National.
 
I've got a place bet on MM at about 4.80 or so - would be surprised if he can win under that weight but stamina will count in this renewal more than in some imo and he has plenty. Waiting to see who will ride Character Building - who hasn't got a ride yet??!
 
Sara said:
I've got a place bet on MM at about 4.80 or so - would be surprised if he can win under that weight but stamina will count in this renewal more than in some imo and he has plenty. Waiting to see who will ride Character Building - who hasn't got a ride yet??!
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I though I read somewhere that Codd the Irish amateur (rode him at Cheltenham last year)has got the ride again??
 
That's what it said in today's RP, although a few days ago it said that the new owners of Character Building wanted a pro on board, not Codd. It appears they may have changed their minds.
 
Really don't know what to fancy at this stage but Nozic kind of interests me at a big price.
 
granger said:
Never great to agree with you, but don't see it being out of the places at least
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Agree with that. I am thinking the best betting appoach to the national lies in place betting, as likely finishers should be much easier to identify, and considering 9/10 (or less) may only finish, it becomes an attractive betting medium. Previous GN form a big help.

Likely finishers/place horses for me are:
Mon Mome
My Will
King John's Castle
Comply or die
Snowy Morning
Arbor Supreme

I am tempted by maljimar but can't get the idea of him fading with a mile to go out of my head.

Any thoughts?
 
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I've just taken 1pt ew (nrnb) Chief Dan George at 33/1.

I didn't have him in my table because I was pretty sure he wouldn't get a run but if he did he'd be up there at the top and I could see him going off as short as 10/1 on the day, giving me an excellent opportunity to lay off at least the win part of the bet to guarantee no loss and just over 8/1 to be in the first four.
 
I really like Vic Venturi, he won over the Aintree fences in the autumn and was very impressive when beating Black Apalachi at Fairyhouse.

Arbor Supreme stayed on well last time out and could figure while Big Fella Thanks is a worthy favourite and has been on my shortlist since running well last year when still a novice.
 
Simon said:
Time to back The Package? Timmy just decided to ride Comply Or Die.
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Couldn't have been an easy decision.

Age is against The Package (wouldn't have stopped me punting it if Timmy had chosen it) and maybe they think if they can get him in next year off a similar mark he can win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't imagine MM getting anywhere near the places myself.
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How much higher did Hedgehunter run off the year after he won? Wasn't it 12lbs? I think Smith has been generous only raising Mon Mome 7lbs as he won as he liked last year. Traffic problems are the most likely cause of him not being there ot thereabouts.

Marathon distances are his thing, all his form suggests that to be the case and i had a punt on him a while ago for this.

Black Apalachi is another I really like but worry he may have a little too much weight despite Smith saying he thought's both Hughes' charges were well in (Not sure why he says that after he's allocated the weights but there you go).
 
Aragorn said:
How much higher did Hedgehunter run off the year after he won? Wasn't it 12lbs? I think Smith has been generous only raising Mon Mome 7lbs as he won as he liked last year. Traffic problems are the most likely cause of him not being there ot thereabouts.
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Hedgehunter was younger and classier. He was a decent Gold Cup contender running off handicapper ratings. Mon Mome went up something like 12lbs too but his form this season saw the handicapper relent a bit, which would help his cause. Traffic problems aren't his main problem, though. His rating, his weight and the weights of others are his problem. Carrying 7lbs more will pull him back a good 14 lengths. Other horses are carrying less than last year and they'll be further ahead of where they were last year. And there are many others who are simply better handicapped. Strictly at the weights, I have 34 (out of a field of 40) with better chances but, of course, many won't stay and some will be unlucky etc etc.
Aragorn said:
Marathon distances are his thing, all his form suggests that to be the case.
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This, to me, is his only hope; that he might be significantly better for the extra distance and therefore still unexposed at it. I'd say he's a very bad price but I hope you got a lot better than his current odds.
 
So far I've "narrowed it down" to:

Vic Venturi
Tricky Trickster
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Nozic
My Will
Backstage
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Character Building
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
The Package
Palypso De Creek
Hello Bud
Flintoff
Cerium
Royal Rosa
Chief Dan George
Offshore Account

Will have a look again once the decs are out and hopefully get it down to 4 or 5.
 
Simon said:
So far I've "narrowed it down" to:

Vic Venturi
Tricky Trickster
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Nozic
My Will
Backstage
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Character Building
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
The Package
Palypso De Creek
Hello Bud
Flintoff
Cerium
Royal Rosa
Chief Dan George
Offshore Account

Will have a look again once the decs are out and hopefully get it down to 4 or 5.
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You've quoted half the field and still haven't got the winner ;)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hedgehunter was younger and classier. He was a decent Gold Cup contender running off handicapper ratings.
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I'd take issue with "younger and classier" tbh; there is very little difference between the GN profiles of Hedgehunter and Mon Mome. Both debuted at 8, won at 9, went on to run the race of their lives to be placed in the Gold Cup the following year and headed to their third Grand National heavily weighted but not badly handicapped. Hedgehunter came second and I'd be surprised if Mon Mome is unplaced. He certainly has more chance of winning than Big Fella Thanks in my opinion.

Regarding the Gold Cup run, I'm of the opinion that Mon Mome's distant third was almost as good a performance as Hedgehunter's close second in a much weaker race.
 
In terms of ages, I stand corrected. It was in my mind that Hedgehunter's first run in the race was as a 7yo.

I have MM running to about 153 at Cheltenham (cf 160+ at Aintree last year) via Imperial Commander at a very respectable 180 in the Gold Cup. This was about the same as his form prior to Aintree last year (154+). Hence my theory he may be unexposed at extreme trips.

Hedgehumper was far better handicapped when winning the National. He was off 144 and hit 158+ in winning rather easily. However, he subsequently ran - when only half-fit - second to Beef Or Salmon in the (Irish) Hennessy before going straight to Cheltenham. I can't accept that a 2½ length second to War Of Attrition in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (174+ on my figures) is anything other than genuine Grade 1 form. Mon Mome could only wet dream of hitting that kind of figure.

Since I switched to my amended approach to rating the Grand National, it has taken the winner to at least hit the norm in my tables. For Mon Mome to do so this year, he'll have to be a 168-169 horse at the very least. I don't think he's anywhere near that. I think Madison Du Berlais (a mid-170s horse at his very best) could quite easily finish in front of Mon Mome this year, giving him the weight*.

I think Mon Mome will finish 15-20 lengths behind the winner, assuming he gets round. It's a question of how many other horses will get closer than that. I can see at least half the field finishing again and I can see anything between 12 and 18 in with some sort of chance turning for home.

*I might even look for a match bet on that one.
 
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