The Road to the Grand National 2010

rorydelargy said:
I'd take issue with "younger and classier" tbh; there is very little difference between the GN profiles of Hedgehunter and Mon Mome. Both debuted at 8, won at 9, went on to run the race of their lives to be placed in the Gold Cup the following year and headed to their third Grand National heavily weighted but not badly handicapped. Hedgehunter came second and I'd be surprised if Mon Mome is unplaced. He certainly has more chance of winning than Big Fella Thanks in my opinion.

Regarding the Gold Cup run, I'm of the opinion that Mon Mome's distant third was almost as good a performance as Hedgehunter's close second in a much weaker race.
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I'd agree with every word of that.

I think Mon Mome to place is probably the best bet in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have MM running to about 153 at Cheltenham (cf 160+ at Aintree last year) via Imperial Commander at a very respectable 180 in the Gold Cup. This was about the same as his form prior to Aintree last year (154+). Hence my theory he may be unexposed at extreme trips.

Hedgehumper was far better handicapped when winning the National. He was off 144 and hit 158+ in winning rather easily. However, he subsequently ran - when only half-fit - second to Beef Or Salmon in the (Irish) Hennessy before going straight to Cheltenham. I can't accept that a 2½ length second to War Of Attrition in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (174+ on my figures) is anything other than genuine Grade 1 form. Mon Mome could only wet dream of hitting that kind of figure.
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"My" figures give Mon Mome 160 for the Gold Cup compared to Hedgehunter's 162 when runner up in the race - Mon Mome will run off a 1lb lower rating that Hedgehunter did in their respective defences so that puts them very close in terms of merit. Imperial Commander put up a far better performance on the day than War Of Attrition had to imo. It's rather odd to describe Hedgehunter as much better handicapped than Mon Mome when they both won the National since the very fact of winning the race easily proved how well treated both were in the context of the race. I agree that this year's race looks very open and I'm not suggesting that Mon Mome is an outstanding bet, merely that he compares closely with Hedgehunter on an historical level.
 
You must have Imperial Commander on a pretty monstrous figure, Rory. 187? Higher?

People were saying Kauto Star couldn't possibly be hitting figures like 184 not so long ago.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You must have Imperial Commander on a pretty monstrous figure, Rory. 187? Higher?

People were saying Kauto Star couldn't possibly be hitting figures like 184 not so long ago.
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Note the use of inverted commas DO ;) I'm subscribing to the Timeform view here - Imperial Commander gets 184 for the GC with Mon Mome rated value for finishing a little closer than he did, as he wasn't hassled to get close to the others fighting out third until well after the second last. Some will say he's flattered to plod past tiring horses but my reading of the race is that he'd have got within a few lengths of Denman if he's been a real trier. He was really travelling as he hit the hill, not just staying on at one pace.
 
I think My Will is massively overpriced at 40/1. Ran an absolute cracker last year and must be the best each way bet of the race.
 
Simon said:
He would've been on my list had he not been the price he is. Can't say I fancy it that much anyway, but certainly not at 7/1.
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I actually think he's still a decent price at 7.1, but I posted it up on here when he was 25/1...and i'm more than happy with that.
 
I think 7/1 (better here and there) about Big Fella Thanks might look decent value late on Saturday afternoon. He's far better value at those odds than the likes of Mon Mome at 12s.

I'd be pretty sure My Will will be ready to run its race. Better ground will help him too.
 
Big Fella Thanks looks pretty good to me too off 10-12 and considering his excellent effort last time out.

My fear is that he doesn't quite get the trip though. He looked pretty done in last year on the run in.

I think Mon Mome is flattered by his GC run as he was staying on past very tired horses and has lots of weight - but he is a thorough stayer and he could just be one of those horses that is better at Aintree over these fences.

I like Niche Market ew too especially as the ground is drying out.
 
Given the dire record of 7yos & novices in the race, I thought BFT ran an excellent 'trial' last year. The good novices improve a lot into and through their second season and I reckon we could be looking at a 160+ horse running off a ridiculous mark.
 
Right, after putting a significant amount of time into working out a profile of the National winners over the last 10 years (probably in vein), I've cut it down to...

Niche Market
Nozic
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
Hello Bud
Flintoff

I need to cut out a few more, any opinions?
 
Euronymous said:
Ballyfitz is a bit of a ropey jumper for the National.
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So were lots of past winners, Euro.

I still wince when I recall not backing my top-rated Maori Venture because I didn't think he'd get round. The following year I did it again with Rhyme N Reason, only that one fell and got up again and won! I've never let a reputation for dodgy jumping put me off since. Sometimes the fences make them jump.

And sometimes the good jumpers don't take to them. I've backed Cloudy Lane (again) even though it looked to me two years ago like he didn't enjoy the fences and last year he unseated.
 
Simon said:
Right, after putting a significant amount of time into working out a profile of the National winners over the last 10 years (probably in vein), I've cut it down to...

Niche Market
Nozic
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
Hello Bud
Flintoff

I need to cut out a few more, any opinions?
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I know I'm farting against thunder with you, Simon, but I just can't see Maljimar staying and I don't think Niche Market is weighted to get near the frame. But don't heed me anyway. Go with your own judgment.
 
Coming back to BFT, I checked all his form again this morning.

His initial hurdles runs were over 3m and he was being touted then as a staying chaser in the making. As a novice chaser he was being described as a "doughty stayer" in the form book. He was noted as not having the pace to get into the race in the Racing Post Chase yet stayed on strongly for a place trying to give Nacarat weight.

In last year's race the commentators mentioned quite a number of times that he made mistakes. Put all that together, factor in that he was only seven and that this year he has shown enough pace to land a top 2½ mile handicap in a fast time and I can see him travelling much better this year. With Ruby up, it's a huge plus.

As an aside, is racing the only context in which the word "doughty" is used? It's listed in my dictionary as an archaic word used nowadays only in a jocular sense. I suspect Phil Bull was behind its prominence in racing language.
 
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Simon said:
Right, after putting a significant amount of time into working out a profile of the National winners over the last 10 years (probably in vein), I've cut it down to...

Niche Market
Nozic
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
Hello Bud
Flintoff

I need to cut out a few more, any opinions?
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I wouldn't be confident of State Of Play completing. One run when he pulled up this season, the ground maybe not to his liking and perhaps size shouldn't matter but he's not over big. Having said that, he'll probably hose up.
 
I think the better ground will suit State Of Play. I don't think it's too extravagant a claim to say he'd have gone very close but for being squeezed out at Becher's last year and losing a good dozen lengths.
 
Could someone please advise which bookmakers are offering to pay on 5th place? People are work asking and all gambling sites blocked here. Thanks.
 
At the moment, according to oddschecker, ALL BAR the following (which you can probably guess!) are paying 5 places:

Tote
Betfred
Ladbrokes
Hills
(There's no indication in Coral's column but they never offer 5 places)

One or two might offer six places tomorrow.

I'd like to add a question of my own...

At what time does the best price guarantee usually kick in?
 
Cloudy Lane hasn't looked the same horse this season to me. He is no longer seeing his races out, which to me suggests he's got some sort of physical problem.

I'm going to stick with Black Appalachi, albeit with little confidence.
 
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