The Road to the Grand National 2010

Desert Orchid said:
At the moment, according to oddschecker, ALL BAR the following (which you can probably guess!) are paying 5 places:

Tote
Betfred
Ladbrokes
Hills
(There's no indication in Coral's column but they never offer 5 places)

One or two might offer six places tomorrow.

I'd like to add a question of my own...

At what time does the best price guarantee usually kick in?
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Boyles paid 6 places last year
 
davidjohnson said:
Cloudy Lane hasn't looked the same horse this season to me. He is no longer seeing his races out, which to me suggests he's got some sort of physical problem.
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While I agree, you could have said the same thing about Red Rum in any of his races over his last three or four seasons. Likewise Amberleigh House. If it's been trained for one day, nothing else really matters.

I see Johnson has carried out his plan to withdraw Abbeybraney to let Royal Rosa run, while Murphy has done likewise with Mr Pointment to let Cerium take its place.
 
Desert Orchid said:
King Johns Castle and Ballyfitz look the ones for money today.
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Funny you should say that. I've just prepared the following:

Strike a line through those carrying more than 11 stone (i.e. the top 15). They won’t be winning. Year-in, year-out people make a case for those above 11st. Unless you have a truly exceptional weight carrying hulk it won’t happen. (Maybe next year ;)). Horses can’t cope with such weights at course and distance (very different to park courses). For this reason I’m against Black Apalachi, who I would otherwise fancy.

They are all in the handicap proper, so anything below 11st has a chance in theory (age and aptitude aside). Adjusting for age and aptitude there don’t seem all that many who have an obvious chance.

It probably won’t pay to look too far past the obvious this year. Big Fella Thanks an 8yo off 10 12 looks likeliest to me. The Package looks well placed, but is inexperienced so I’d be inclined to forget him. Otherwise I wouldn’t put you off the likes of Character Building, Snowy Morning, King John’s Castle or (possibly) Ballyfitz – although this group look a little long in the tooth and not totally reliable.

So I keep coming back to Big Fella Thanks, who I’ve backed. I’ll perhaps decide on one or two others tomorrow.
 
As well as numerous place bets, I will be having my biggest national bet by some distance on King john's castle.
 
I like Ballyfitz but he does make a lot of mistakes and the yard actually think he prefers hurdles, so I am closing my eyes while he jumps round and praying I think! Still, if he is slower and careful maybe he can get round.

But I noted that Paddy prefers Irish Raptor .... who has a nice weight. Any thoughts on him?
 
Isinglass said:
I like Ballyfitz but he does make a lot of mistakes and the yard actually think he prefers hurdles, so I am closing my eyes while he jumps round and praying I think! Still, if he is slower and careful maybe he can get round.

But I noted that Paddy prefers Irish Raptor .... who has a nice weight. Any thoughts on him?
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non stayer but jumps those fences well (bar the last time) could trade shortish in running
 
Plenty!

I backed Irish Raptor in the Topham last year and Paddy was asked in the euphoric post-race interview about the 2010 National. Paddy replied that he'd never stay the trip. I suspect he feels he has to stick with the one that's proved he can do it and hope he was wrong about it not staying.

I took Ballyfitz ages ago and I also like Hello Bud (backed it when it won the Scottish National) and I wouldn't rule out any of the other from the yard if they were to return to form. Razor Royale would have been interesting but maybe they have 2011 in mind for it.
 
I have backed Irish Raptor, but I don't really know why; Dream Alliance and Cloudy Lane. My 'runner' is at the bookies now and I have said if The Package is bigger than 16-1 to put some on him too.
I haven't backed him but think Big Fella Thanks has a great chance.
 
G-G said:
I wouldn't be confident of State Of Play completing. One run when he pulled up this season, the ground maybe not to his liking and perhaps size shouldn't matter but he's not over big. Having said that, he'll probably hose up.
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State Of Play was 4th last year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know I'm farting against thunder with you, Simon, but I just can't see Maljimar staying and I don't think Niche Market is weighted to get near the frame. But don't heed me anyway. Go with your own judgment.
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I do agree with you about Niche Market, actually. Not really sure about Maljimar yet, he's a horse I really like and he stayed well enough over 3m7f last time and looks like he's been set up for this.
 
Hadn't realised the handicapper had been quite so kind to King Johns Castle as what he has. Carbs is a master over the fences. Looks a good EW shout at 33's. Well spotted.
 
davidjohnson said:
Hadn't realised the handicapper had been quite so kind to King Johns Castle as what he has. Carbs is a master over the fences. Looks a good EW shout at 33's. Well spotted.
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I ended up discussing this very issue last night on the phone. Prompted me to back it this morning (ew 33/1).
 
Thanks, I thought I heard Johnson was available. How do two jockeys that good not pick up a ride?
 
Those I like, in descending price order:

Beat The Boys (150/1)
Eric's Charm (50/1)
Irish Raptor (33/1)
Backstage (25/1)
Arbor Supreme (18/1)
 
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