The Road to the Grand National 2010

I reckon we'll have 20+ finishers, with at least 15 in with a chance of some sort of being third behind Big Fella Thanks and State Of Play.

I see the bookies are up to their tricks, trying to sucker punters into backing Mon Mome and The Package. While I agree with Mick Fitz that the latter might never get a better chance, he has that stat about 7yos to buck.

That said, if there's a strong trend likely to go at some point it's going to be a double-whammy with a French-bred 7yo doing it. Cue Palypso De Creek. I'm coming back round to the idea of including it in my array of bets.
 
When you say 20 will have a chance, do you mean the 20 you have backed or just in a general sense?
 
My Will
Snowy Morning
Cerium
King Johns Castle
Big Fella Thanks

The usual motley crew of classy types in the middle of the weights that I always plump for. Struggling to know whether the fact that I've gone back to the well with My Will, Snowy Morning et al is a true reflection of their chances or a reflection of the fact that I've barely kept up with NH in the last couple of years!
 
I am cutting out Niche Market due to weight, may cut out Ballyfitz later once I've looked at some of his videos, but may not. I'm left with...

Nozic
Beat The Boys
State Of Play
Ballyfitz
Maljimar
Hello Bud
Flintoff

Nobody has spoken about Flintoff, is he the forgotten horse?
 
I've done 6:

Big Fella Thanks (11s)
The Package (16s)
Mon Mome (17s)
Tricky Trickster (25s)
State of Play (25)
Maljimar (42s)
 
Gearoid said:
Nothing wrong with bacing a few but if you had to be pinned down to one who would it be?
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Apart from some losing ante-post bets, my two big bets so far are on State Of Play (25/1 & 20/1). I've been waiting to see how Big Fella Thanks goes in the market and now that he's hit 10/1 I intend to take that but I want to be sure of getting the best price guarantee too.

However, there are a few that I've got over 100 about at Betfair and if any of them do the biz...
 
Id imagine the best time to back BFT will be in the morning with the guaranteed price firms.
 
... blimey, that'll be the missus treated to regular cinema seats, not the 2-for-1 special offers on Wednesday mornings!
 
Gearoid said:
Id imagine the best time to back BFT will be in the morning with the guaranteed price firms.
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There are some very tempting place-only prices on offer. I'm tempted to bet some longshots to small amounts win only at Betfair and to bigger amounts place-only.

I always feel I'm getting good value if I find a longshot I don't quite fancy to win but am getting a quarter of the win odds place only. For example, in everyday racing, if I fancy a 20/1 shot for a place I reckon 1pt ew will return 6pts (at ¼-odds), or 2/1 overall. If I can get 5/1 place only, I'd sooner stick the 2pts on as it will return 12pts. With plenty of firms going five places in the National, it isn't a bad way to punt more than one horse. You could end up with two or three winners in the one race! (As I did today in the Topham.)
 
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Even though he's had more problems than my gelding (and that's saying something!!!) I too think that Royal Rosa is very interesting off a featherweight. He's got some classy form, jumps and stays. He wouldn't be over-raced for an 11 year old and he his run in the Becher las November was eyecatching to say the least (or should that be eyebrow raising??!! :whistle: ) when he was a fast finishing third under not the most vigorous ride ever and jumped the National fences for sport.

I like The Package a lot as well, having like him since I saw him as a novice hurdler and thinking he looked very much unlike a Pipe horse - this was in David's early days with the licence if I recall correctly. I'm pleased to see Murphy get off him as well, especially in giving the ride to Graham Lee.
 
A few on here have tipped up Beat The Boys. Whats the attraction? Im curious because Im a massive fan of Brian Hughes
 
Gone in with 3..

Big Fella Thanks
The Package
Arbour Supreme..

By the way..imo French Opera is the bet of the day in the Aintree Novice chase tomorrow.
 
Going for...

Vic Venturi
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud

All 3 a very small bet e/w, but if I had to narrow it down to one, it would be Vic Venturi. Would love to see Eric's Charm run a big race.


Narrowed it down to 3 last year, was away that weekend, so left the list & money with my dad. Told him to back the top 2 and the 3rd if one of those was withdrawn. The 3rd was Mon Mome......
 
Cant get away from last years winner. A 7lb rise is nothing for the way he was flying at the end. Everything is in place for a great run
 
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