The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

I see the 7/1 on the generous side, considering most of the list will be non runners and the level of form he has shown,
Another point is I read he was not entered and needing suplementation, but he is entered.
 
sunybay said:
I see the 7/1 on the generous side, considering most of the list will be non runners and the level of form he has shown,
Another point is I read he was not entered and needing suplementation, but he is entered.
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You'll get close to 7/1 on the day.
 
Sea The Moon did look amazing winning from the front as he did. His rating has jumped up from around 105 to about 120, but the ease of victory must surely be viewed with suspicion. The colt has a shedload of stamina (damsire Monsun) and has been ridden to suit those strengths. Racing up the other side to the others (which it has to be said are a real bunch of donkeys) also looks to have seriously exaggerated the margin of victory. He’s undoubtedly decent but I would need a very big price for the Arc (at least double digits) to get at all worked up about him. The Arc winner will almost certainly be a different horse.
 
I find funny how people in general use to rate the German and japanesse horses in general.
The runner up the other day is a solid group horse rated on 114 in my figures.
Big field , good pace , good prizemoney, very likely the form is true.

Rpr figures for this races are a joke.
 
SteveM said:
Sea The Moon did look amazing winning from the front as he did. His rating has jumped up from around 105 to about 120, but the ease of victory must surely be viewed with suspicion. The colt has a shedload of stamina (damsire Monsun) and has been ridden to suit those strengths. Racing up the other side to the others (which it has to be said are a real bunch of donkeys) also looks to have seriously exaggerated the margin of victory. He’s undoubtedly decent but I would need a very big price for the Arc (at least double digits) to get at all worked up about him. The Arc winner will almost certainly be a different horse.
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I don't dispute he probably is short enough (I wouldn't back anything for the race sub 8 I don't think) but what in your opinion is ahead of him at this moment in time? I would maintain Australia is ahead of him currently but suspect he will be going the 1m2f route.

The lack of respect for the German form is just standard in the UK (lazy analysis) hence why Danedream and Novellist went off such big prices for their races in the UK (and in the Arc for the former).

It doesn't take much effort to click on a couple of horses and see that the second is a Group 2 winner and the fifth was 4th in the French Derby to show that these are far from a "real bunch of donkeys"
 
Gamla Stan said:
I don't dispute he probably is short enough (I wouldn't back anything for the race sub 8 I don't think) but what in your opinion is ahead of him at this moment in time? I would maintain Australia is ahead of him currently but suspect he will be going the 1m2f route.

The lack of respect for the German form is just standard in the UK (lazy analysis) hence why Danedream and Novellist went off such big prices for their races in the UK (and in the Arc for the former).

It doesn't take much effort to click on a couple of horses and see that the second is a Group 2 winner and the fifth was 4th in the French Derby to show that these are far from a "real bunch of donkeys"
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Pretty much spot on. The 2nd was the German 2000 Guineas winner and he was about 3 lengths in front of the rest. It doesn't take much to say the winner will be a different horse but I'm sure Steve M will be going with the front of the market (minus STM) as is his usual mo.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I don't dispute he probably is short enough (I wouldn't back anything for the race sub 8 I don't think) but what in your opinion is ahead of him at this moment in time? I would maintain Australia is ahead of him currently but suspect he will be going the 1m2f route.

The lack of respect for the German form is just standard in the UK (lazy analysis) hence why Danedream and Novellist went off such big prices for their races in the UK (and in the Arc for the former).

It doesn't take much effort to click on a couple of horses and see that the second is a Group 2 winner and the fifth was 4th in the French Derby to show that these are far from a "real bunch of donkeys"
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Well we'll see... Like I say I believe the winner is decent but the field of this year's German Derby very poor. This does not mean that I underrate German form in general. I stand by my opinion that there are no horses that finished behind the winner in this year's German Derby that should be on anyone's radar for the Arc.
 
brendanr said:
It doesn't take much to say the winner will be a different horse but I'm sure Steve M will be going with the front of the market (minus STM) as is his usual mo.
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I simply said this to counter claims that he has a live chance in the Arc. Is this no longer allowed on a racing forum? If it doesn't take much to say it, why then are others saying otherwise?
 
archie said:
If you take the view that neither AOB's Derby winners nor the Japanese win this and Treve hasn't trained on, it surely has to be worth a serious look. Now 9/1 top price with Hills and PP with PP going 1/4 odds on the each way. Thanks for posting, James.
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Slow down mate.........where do you get the idea that Treve hasn't trained on?

Prior to her running a stinker with what may have been a perfectly legitimate excuse she ran a blinder when beat a neck by Cirrus Des Aigles on hi s ground at his trip.

That form is rock solid which is more than you can say about Sea the Moon's

Sea The Moon has possible done little more than uphold the form he had going into the German Derby.

The 5th in that race was beaten easily by the Great Gatsby and the 3rd had already met Sea Moon finishing nearly 10 lengths behind him.

Add to that Sea the Moon may or may not have been running on much better ground in the straight and the second was in trouble early in the race and the form could be a bit suspect.

When Treve won the Arc she beat a horse in Orfevre who has won or been 2nd in almost every race he has participated in. In the races he has finished 2nd in nothing came anywhere near to beating him by 5 long looking lengths.

To be frank while Sea The Moon could be anything but his form doesn't even come close to that of Treve's. His form prior to winning the German Derby wouldn't get a him passage on the train to France to run in a Group 2 let alone the Arc.

Visually impressive yes! but beating what?

Also someone said he won on the bridle? That was not the case.

He was flat to the boards before being heavily eased when his jockey realised he was well in front and nothing was coming from behind most of which would struggle to win a Hamilton seller.

Prior to that he was far from cantering, was racing most of the way and won more in the fashion of a stayer than the next Sea Bird.

The German Derby is a mediocre event that Godolphin won with a horse who ran in our Guineas and Derby and was beaten further than the eye can see in both.

Sea the Moon might see the moon and think he's gone into orbit when he runs in the Arc and I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.:lol:

Very hard horse to access and it would be a braver man than me to back him at 7/1 against the likes Treve or Australia if AOB has a sudden rush of blood to the head and runs him.
 
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brendanr said:
Pretty much spot on. The 2nd was the German 2000 Guineas winner and he was about 3 lengths in front of the rest. It doesn't take much to say the winner will be a different horse but I'm sure Steve M will be going with the front of the market (minus STM) as is his usual mo.
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The German 200 Guineas you mean? The form of that race isn't worth a pinch of salt by European standards.

Actually we both need a slap for bringing Wild Cief into the equation. He has been stuffed 3 times and when you start going that far back in the form book we're grasping for straws to prove our points.
 
Tanlic said:
Slow down mate.........where do you get the idea that Treve hasn't trained on?

Prior to her running a stinker with what may have been a perfectly legitimate excuse she ran a blinder when beat a neck by Cirrus Des Aigles on hi s ground at his trip.

That form is rock solid which is more than you can say about Sea the Moon's

Sea The Moon has possible done little more than uphold the form he had going into the German Derby.

The 5th in that race was beaten easily by the Great Gatsby and the 3rd had already met Sea Moon finishing nearly 10 lengths behind him.

Add to that Sea the Moon may or may not have been running on much better ground in the straight and the second was in trouble early in the race and the form could be a bit suspect.

When Treve won the Arc she beat a horse in Orfevre who has won or been 2nd in almost every race he has participated in. In the races he has finished 2nd in nothing came anywhere near to beating him by 5 long looking lengths.

To be frank while Sea The Moon could be anything but his form doesn't even come close to that of Treve's. His form prior to winning the German Derby wouldn't get a him passage on the train to France to run in a Group 2 let alone the Arc.

Visually impressive yes! but beating what?

Also someone said he won on the bridle? That was not the case.

He was flat to the boards before being heavily eased when his jockey realised he was well in front and nothing was coming from behind most of which would struggle to win a Hamilton seller.

Prior to that he was far from cantering, was racing most of the way and won more in the fashion of a stayer than the next Sea Bird.

The German Derby is a mediocre event that Godolphin won with a horse who ran in our Guineas and Derby and was beaten further than the eye can see in both.

Sea the Moon might see the moon and think he's gone into orbit when he runs in the Arc and I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.:lol:

Very hard horse to access and it would be a braver man than me to back him at 7/1 against the likes Treve or Australia if AOB has a sudden rush of blood to the head and runs him.
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So You think the Germán derby is a bad race always


Treve run a top race in the ganay because cirrus was near his best


And You think Treve won the arc with orfevre running his race.



I have other formbook different to You and i think sea the moon on sundays form would beat Treve Now by more than 6 lengths.
 
Hang on, Tanlic. As you quoted, I posted, 'If you take the view' about Treve and the others. I was basically summarising views on previous pages. Most people would agree that her first run was decent and the second poor but neither would be as good as her best last season. Others have pointed out her different preparation this season and her ineligibility to claim the same weight allowance.
With Sea The Moon (and all the others) I think you have to look at all the other horses in the betting and decide what his price will be on the day. I've said that 9/1 looked an attractive price and 7/1 less so. Someone else said that they wouldn't be backing Treve at the moment at 6/1. Would you?
 
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Quite, but we're still in the dark as to where she is compared to last season and I wouldn't want to back her at the current price until she's shown more.
 
archie said:
Quite, but we're still in the dark as to where she is compared to last season and I wouldn't want to back her at the current price until she's shown more.
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I don't really see that she is any different tbh..she is like a lot of horses..needs conditions to suit...she shown best form with give over 12f...so 10 on fast was never going to suit at Ascot..not after timing as i put her up on here that day as a lay.

Prix Ganay form was exceptional over a trip too short for her before that..so i just don't see how there is much doubt about how good she is...if you put a top miler over 6f and it got beat you wouldn't suddenly think horse had gone at game..so no real reason to question how good Treve is tbh
 
Good evaluation EC1.
We can be too quick to write horses off as disappointing after one run.
The Prince of Wales was probably the best race run this year so far.
Treve has any number of valid excuses as you have said; trip, going, tough first run back and injury.
Also a lot of improving if unproven sorts to try and evaluate so Autumn could be a golden racing period, as opposed to rusty.
 
There's no doubting she has yet to show she can run to the same figure which saw her win the Arc so decisively though which makes her price all the more baffling.
 
Not easy for 4yo fillies taking on the colts given the weight differential from the previous year. Treve is not the biggest either.

Perhaps they should put Jarnet back on board....... She got Dettori out of jail in the Vermeille last year but hasn't done this year.

Was anything confirmed after her run that she was injured/scoped badly?
 
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Yep pulled muscle. Also has minor arthritis in her back. Say it is nothing serious and will be prepared for the Vermeille.
 
sunybay said:
So You think the Germán derby is a bad race always

80% + of the time it is. Some real moderate animals have won it...Shirrocco won the race then moved to Andre Fabre and won the Coronation Cup and the Breeders Cup but failed in the Arc. He's the best I can remember


Treve run a top race in the ganay because cirrus was near his best

Is that a question or a statement?


And You think Treve won the arc with orfevre running his race.

Hard to say the 3rd had never run at the trip before and hasn't been out since. At a guess I'd say she is far superior to Orfevre



I have other formbook different to You and i think sea the moon on sundays form would beat Treve Now by more than 6 lengths.
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I think that last statement is straight out of a comic book. So what you are saying is that on a line through Treve/Cirrus he would have beaten Frankel.......get a grip mate.
 
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Frankel said:
Yep pulled muscle. Also has minor arthritis in her back. Say it is nothing serious and will be prepared for the Vermeille.
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If she did have a pulled muscle she would have been in serious pain.

Funny thing about punters is they find it very hard to forgive and forget a bad run......The very same punters lumped on beforehand said she was a beast and couldn't be beaten.........Which only goes to prove a pulled wallet hurts more than a pulled muscle :)
 
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