The Road to the Queen Mother

Best Prices:
Sizing Europe 2/1 (C)
Finian's Rainbow 3/1 (C)
Tataniano 9/2 (PP)
Wishfull Thinking 9/2 (PP)
Kauto Stone 10/1 (PP)
Gauvain 12/1 (PP)
20/1 bar
 
Surely Wishful Thinking can't win this after his performance at Cheltenham.Gauvain doesn't do back to back wins.
I wouldn't be having a max bet on Sizing stepping down a mile.I think he could be a fairly serious drifter in the betting.
Tataniano is interesting but you would like to see him actually make it to the races.
I'm amazed to see Kauto Stone entered -I was going to back him at long odds for Gold Cup.
I won't be putting my money dow until fairly close to the off.
 
Again, did you not see his last race - another 100 yards of that and he would have collapsed. 2s is far from generous when you consider this is his next race, and is not a time of the season he usually thrives in...
 
Bruce_Savage said:
I think three or four will come out of that field given the strength, you don't want to put your whole season up in smoke during November - you'd certainly know where you stood after this race.
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The Tingle Creek is of course a highly significant race in itself. While the season is virtually all about Cheltenham there are one or two bright spots about the place elsewhere during the season. There will be plenty decent horses looking to line up in, if not actually aimed at, this race.
 
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There were 13 better horses than him last year allegedly too.

Best horse in the race by quite a bit

I'm happy to take 2'a

If your not lay him or take 3's on FR
 
Eh, have you lost the plot? What has last year got to do with assessing his chances on Saturday?

Again, try to read what I have written - the horse finished lifeless. This is his next race. He doesn't typically thrive at this part of the season. I have never said he is not top class, but few horses could be at their best when you bear in mind the above. Think of the QM last March if you like...
 
Have you not read any of my posts this past 6 months?! Finian's Rainbow.

I think Tataniano could beat them both though if FR isn't fit and ready (he wasn't 2 weeks back)...
 
SteveM said:
The Tingle Creek is of course a highly significant race in itself. While the season is virtually all about Cheltenham there are one or two bright spots about the place elsewhere during the season. There will be plenty decent horses looking to line up in, if not actually aimed at, this race.
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Fair point Steve, something I overlooked - not really followed the Jumps for long but I'm trying to get into it now so info like this is always helpful.

Cheers!
 
Finian's Rainbow was too exuberant in the Arkle, despite running very well, and consequently set the race up for one to stay on strongly. Apart from hearing he wasn't ready 2 weeks back, I would have thought he was the kind of horse that would be fine fto (Henderson's usually are).
 
From the Irish Times site:
Nicholls charges primed for Sandown

Racing : Paul Nicholls has given Tataniano and Kauto Stone entries in the Sportingbet Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday as he seeks to continue his domination of the two-mile feature.
The Ditcheat trainer has won the last six renewals of the Esher showpiece, and eight times in all. Two of those wins were achieved by the great Kauto Star, whose half-brother Kauto Stone was a surprise name among the 11 entries.
The five-year-old French import made an impressive debut for the Nicholls team when winning the Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal earlier this month, giving the trainer his 2,000th career success.
The Tingle Creek has been the plan for Tataniano after a successful reappearance at Chepstow in October.
The race has attracted one Irish-trained entry, Sizing Europe, the reigning Queen Mother Champion Chase hero. Henry de Bromhead's charge drops back in trip after finishing second to Quito De La Roque in the three-mile JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal.
"The Tingle Creek is the plan at the moment. He seems in good form and we're going to give it a go," De Bromhead told At The Races . "It was obviously a tough race at Down Royal, but he seems in good form since so we're happy to let him take his chance.
"I'll say for the moment we will concentrate on two miles and two and a half, but I wouldn't rule out going back to three on better ground. We've just tried to freshen him up since Down Royal and keep him good and supple and agile."
Nicky Henderson has put in one of last season's top novices, Finian's Rainbow, while Wishfull Thinking is a possible from the Philip Hobbs stable.
David Pipe is double-handed with Dan Breen and I'msingingtheblues, while Nick Williams also has two entries in Cornas and Gauvain.
Gary Moore's Fix The Rib and Kinkeel, trained by Tony Carroll, complete the list.
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Hamm said:
Finian's Rainbow was too exuberant in the Arkle, despite running very well, and consequently set the race up for one to stay on strongly. Apart from hearing he wasn't ready 2 weeks back, I would have thought he was the kind of horse that would be fine fto (Henderson's usually are).
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I like him as a horse personally but he has a lot to prove. It's a leap of faith to say he is good enough to win this FTO. He could be very good, but we don't know that as of yet.

Confident Sizing will eat some of these up at the Railway fences

The TC deserves a good race, I hope it gets it
 
granger said:
The TC deserves a good race, I hope it gets it
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I'm confident of seeing a healthy turn out and a competitive race. There is nothing strong enough to scare the others away and it is a prestigious prize. Whoever the winner is they will have to earn it.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Last year's novices don't look to be much snuff.

Maybe Finian's Rainbow is an exception.
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As a bunch I like them Finian’s and Captain Chris, Noble Prince and Wishfull Thinking all seem very decent to me. I’m less wild about the RSA horses, but these four at least I like.
 
Looks a belting race, and one I want to have a bet in but am struggling to see one so far. There has to be a concern that Wishfull Thinking, Finnians Rainbow and Tataniano are all going to go off hard, and they could hamper each others chances.

I find Sizing Europe hard to weigh up. It's not really backed up by his form, but I have a hunch that he might be a spring horse or need goodish ground. The ground at least does look likely to be in his favour.

The one I'd be against at the head of the betting is Tataniano who has only one piece of form to make him that price, the Chepstow race, and it's already been let down time and time again.

At a push Sizing Europe just about makes most appeal ahead of Finnians Rainbow.

Give me a shout again if you want the completely obvious pointing out again at a later date!
 
davidjohnson said:
Give me a shout again if you want the completely obvious pointing out again at a later date!
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:lol:

If it hepls getting thoughts forming in the head, then get it down in writing davidjohnson. This is a cracking looking race, and personally i'm interested in anything written about it.

I'm weighing it up trying to decide if FR is worth a bet. Head is saying no, just get on ante post for the Champion Chase. But the degenerate gambler in me want to have a financial interest in the race.
 
You would think, if Henderson reports him as ready, that he must have at least a 1 in 4 chance of winning this if you fancy him as a QM winner?
 
Has the potential to be a fabulous race, but boringly will be a no bet one for me

I wouldn’t be surprised to see SE disappoint, but will top up for the Queen Mum if he does
 
Hamm said:
You would think, if Henderson reports him as ready, that he must have at least a 1 in 4 chance of winning this if you fancy him as a QM winner?
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What Henderson reports means little to me really. Granted saying the horse is ready is a positive, but I wouldn't take that as gospel. Without seeing the horse jump a fence this season, imy head is saying to take a watching brief.

Ultimately whatever happens in the TC, the experience will do the horse the world of good. Another top chase under his belt. If Sizing Europe puts his best foot forward, I'm not sure FR is at that point where he's ready to take him on. But he's certain to be better equipped come March.
 
I'm going for Tataniano. He jumps well and he's fit and in good heart. I am guilty of going for this horse again and again though.

Sizing Europe has an obvious chance if all is well but I don't know what it is about this horse. I can't take to him.

Finian's Rainbow needs to leave his novice form behind as it doesn't look good enough to me. He's entitled to improve but I'd rather go with the Nicholls horse to give the stable a seventh successive win in the race.

If it's a wet week, I'll rethink.
 
How much does Finian's Rainbow have to find?

A ridiculously convoluted (and complete swiss-cheese of a) line through Medermit/Captain Chris, suggests Finian's Rainbow's Arkle effort was probably pretty handy, and getting on for better than average - albeit he was only second.

Granted normal improvement from his novice season, it's not unreasonable to think that he might be capable of running in the ball-park of 160 - assuming he is fit and well and has eaten his carrots and taken a shit in the corner of his stable, before heading to Sandown.

So which of the opposition is capable of running to a similar sort of mark?

Tataniano I can't have. The balance of his form tends towards a horse who doesn't hold onto it for very long, imo, and I think his impressive-looking handicap win at Cheltenham, might end up looking as thread-bare as did his stable companion Woolcome Folly's win in a similar race 12 months earlier. I'm not convinced he is a G1 horse, and he's run enough times over fences to be considered - largely - a known quantity. His revised rating is too literal an interpretation of that Cheltenhma race, and I'm not convinced he can run to 160 round Sandown.

I don't think Wishfull Thinking will go (similar comments apply to Kauto Stone), Kinkeel is out-classed - as is Dan Breen, and so is Fix The Rib, who gave little encouragement on his comeback. The Williams pair are exposed as not good enough to run to 160, and so is I'msingingtheblues - who is Tataniano from two years ago.

Which leaves Sizing Europe, who's record suggests he is vulnerable at this time of year, and not exactly guaranteed to put up a 160+ performance - though it would very likely be close enough.

I'm not exactly knocking the kids out of the way to take 3/1 about Finian's Rainbow, but I think it's an ok'ish price to test how good last season's Arkle form was.

Sandown takes a bit of jumping, and he's at a disadvantage in terms of experience, but Finian's Rainbow was a pretty useful jumper as a novice chaser when allowed to stride on, and he might actually get them at it, if he gets into a rythmn up front.

I think he can put up a pretty bold show, in a race which - for the Grade - might not actually take all that much winning (relative to previous seasons).
 
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