The Stayer's Hurdle

davidjohnson said:
3 miles round Cheltenham off top weight in the Pertemps Final a big ask? Less of a big ask than taking on Big Bucks off levels though.
Click to expand...

Never said he should take on Big Bucks, I said he should come second to him.

Last year second to BB= 55,615 Pounds

Win the pertemps= 45,608 Pounds

Couple that with the fact that the pertemps is very often won by a horse off small weight, eg. Kaft Aramis last year, and there's really only one option.
 
Mr.Jake said:
Never said he should take on Big Bucks, I said he should come second to him.

Last year second to BB= 55,615 Pounds

Win the pertemps= 45,608 Pounds

Couple that with the fact that the pertemps is very often won by a horse off small weight, eg. Kaft Aramis last year, and there's really only one option.
Click to expand...

Good Prospect
Outpoint
Forgive N' Forget
Taberna Lord
Pragada
Henry Mann
Fissure Seal
Pharanear
Rubhahunish
Freetown
Inching Closer
Kadoun

All winners of the Coral Golden Hurdle/Pertemps carrying more than 11 stone in my lifetime, several of them with topweight. All of them would have struggled to make the frame in the Stayers Hurdle on official ratings, with the exception of Forgive N' Forget. In saying that, I don't believe Jimmy Fitzgerald regretted the decision to go for the handicap.
 
Desert Orchid said:
:lol:

One of the festival's all-time gambles, as I recall.
Click to expand...
That it was DO.

A couple of points to make re Lie Forrit. He's had one run of his current mark of 155 which saw him pulled up. There's no suggestion that he was "wrong" that day, but simply that he was short of work due to poor weather in Hawick; the work he had done, according to Willie Amos, was his best ever. That shortness of work would have been obvious only in the latter stages of the race but in reality he was struggling to lie up in the early stages in his first run in graded company. His previous impressive win at Cheltenham came in ground close to heavy, over close to 3m2f and with only 9st12lb to carry (Big Buck's would have been allotted 13st1lb if that were possible). If the World Hurdle was framed as a handicap he would carry 10st4lb and would have thirteen horses ahead of him at the weights.

Of course the World Hurdle isn't a handicap, it's run over a bare 3m (boo!), the going is likely to be goodish and Campbell Gillies won't be able to claim. The Pertemps, of course has two similar problems but at least they can claim some weight to offset those.
 
The trainer took the horse over to Leopardstown at Christmas and decided not to run him there because he believed that parts of the course were frozen and unfit for racing. It's strange that nobody else made the same remark, but that's by the way. He missed an opportunity to run the horse and took him back to frozen Hawick.

This is a horse who was allowed to start at 100/1 on his winning bumper debut, which suggests that he shows nothing at home, presumably because he works lazily, and maybe he's not the nippiest. In any case missing out on the run at Leopardstown won't have helped his cause, and saying he had recently produced his best work ever might not have been too meaningful if he normally doesn't produce much at home anyway.

I therefore doubt that he gave his true running at Cheltenham but I also doubt that he has the class for the World Hurdle. If he was mine I would run him in the handicap.
 
rorydelargy said:
Good Prospect
Outpoint
Forgive N' Forget
Taberna Lord
Pragada
Henry Mann
Fissure Seal
Pharanear
Rubhahunish
Freetown
Inching Closer
Kadoun

All winners of the Coral Golden Hurdle/Pertemps carrying more than 11 stone in my lifetime, several of them with topweight. All of them would have struggled to make the frame in the Stayers Hurdle on official ratings, with the exception of Forgive N' Forget. In saying that, I don't believe Jimmy Fitzgerald regretted the decision to go for the handicap.
Click to expand...


Little focus on recent form:

Nine out of the last ten winners carried no more than 11-2 to victory.

Think the above fact is more relevant than analysing races from the 80's.
 
As the race is a handicap, a study of the horses level of ability in relation to their handicap mark is of greater relevance to absolute weight carried. Lie Forrit will be more unexposed and open to greather improvement that the vast majority he'll meet in a Pertemps Final.

Iris's Gift would have been topweight off 142 had he contested the race in 2003, that it turned out he would have had 2 stone in hand had he run there would surely have been more relevant than the fact he would have had 11-12 or 12-0 on his back.
 
Mr.Jake said:
Little focus on recent form:

Nine out of the last ten winners carried no more than 11-2 to victory.

Think the above fact is more relevant than analysing races from the 80's.
Click to expand...
Ten year trends are a fairly useful tool, but have become massively overplayed. In terms of handicaps they tell you very little, other than that well handicapped horses tend to beat badly handicapped horses.

The stat you quote above can be reframed to say that 2 of the last 10 winners carried 11st2lb or more. Do more or less than 20% of the runners, after jockey claims, have to carry more than that weight? If the answer is less, then your stat is of no significance whatsoever. Here are the numbers of runners in the last five years to have carried such a burden:


2009 - 3/22
2008 - 5/24
2007 - 3/24
2006 - 9/24
2005 - 3/22

total = 23/116, or marginally less that 20%

See what I mean?
 
the fact remains that for whatever reason horses at the top of the weights seem to be very viable to progressive ones with a stone up their sleeve that have been campaigned all year for the race
 
I think the point is that just because a horse has top weight, it doesn't necessarily mean that it hasn't got a stone up its sleeve.
 
BennyB said:
I think the point is that just because a horse has top weight, it doesn't necessarily mean that it hasn't got a stone up its sleeve.
Click to expand...
Spot on. The results of recent Pertemps Finals suggest that very few winners are particularly well in and that it's a pretty ordinary race these days. Unsinkable Boxer was the last obvious plot.

I'm not saying that Lie Forrit would be any good thing, but he would have been best campaigned for the race all season, rather than tilting at windmills in the World Hurdle. I believe that Willie Amos was talked into the latter path but is beginning to change his mind - that's certainly the impression given when he was interviewed at Cheltenham last weekend.
 
rorydelargy said:
Spot on. The results of recent Pertemps Finals suggest that very few winners are particularly well in and that it's a pretty ordinary race these days. Unsinkable Boxer was the last obvious plot.

I'm not saying that Lie Forrit would be any good thing, but he would have been best campaigned for the race all season, rather than tilting at windmills in the World Hurdle. I believe that Willie Amos was talked into the latter path but is beginning to change his mind - that's certainly the impression given when he was interviewed at Cheltenham last weekend.
Click to expand...

I too think he should definitely be aimed at the Pertemps. He hasn't got a piece of form which indicates that he would have a hope of challenging Big Buck's in the big one. A couple of the posters above seem to think he'd be nailed on for second if he ran, but I can't see it myself. Karabak still looks the best bet for second - I don't trust Tidal Bay to string two good runs together any more.
 
I actually see Tidal Bay as a very game and genuine horse, but one that has his fair share of problems jumping a fence. The number of times he has clattered through and hit obstacles that would stop most horses in their tracks doesn't bear thinking about, yet he still manages to finish with a fair flourish. It has to be said he is not the most fluent over timber either, with an awkward head carriage, but he's still probably the only one with the pure ability to potentially upset BB.

Karabak must surely run a big race and should finish thereabouts.
 
While I wouldn't suggest he'd get close to BB, I was very taken with LF's latest win. Very confidently ridden, he sauntered up to the lead and won with an awful lot in hand. The handicapper did hit him very hard for it, though, putting him up no less than 17lbs. That gave him only a few pounds to find with last week's field and many people expected him to find it. It was an awful race and on my figures leaves Tidal Bay with a stone to find to get to Big Buck's. At three miles a stone is almost 20 lengths. That would be roughly what Lie Forrit would have to find at this stage too, so he would be better to go for the handicap.
 
rorydelargy said:
Spot on. The results of recent Pertemps Finals suggest that very few winners are particularly well in and that it's a pretty ordinary race these days. Unsinkable Boxer was the last obvious plot.

I'm not saying that Lie Forrit would be any good thing, but he would have been best campaigned for the race all season, rather than tilting at windmills in the World Hurdle. I believe that Willie Amos was talked into the latter path but is beginning to change his mind - that's certainly the impression given when he was interviewed at Cheltenham last weekend.
Click to expand...

He has gone up 32lbs in the handicap how is that campaigning one for the pertemps!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Yes, it isn't a new phenomenon. You wonder how far-sighted some trainers should be.

Maybe horses need races to bring about the improvement but can you imagine what Lie Forrit might have done to the Pertemps field if he'd been campaigned for the race? However, it wouldn't necessarily be a shoo-in.

It still rankles with me that Blue Bajan didn't win the Totesport Trophy two years ago. This is what I wrote on the morning of the race:

I got on at various prices from 36 up to 50 a couple of weeks ago and laid it all off at 8.2. The horse holds entries in the Supreme Novices, for which he’s been backed this week, and Champion Hurdle, which is probably a tad ambitious for the time being. However he was a 111 horse on the Flat and coped well with the hustle and bustle of a 33-runner Cambridgeshire when second to Formal Decree. Richard Hughes revealed on TV this morning that he was asked at Christmas to ride him in this race so this isn’t an afterthought. Trainer Andy Turnell is also on record as saying this horse is better than his Squire Silk, who won it off 145 in 1996. Blue Bajan runs off 128 today. Commentators have mentioned he needs to improve his jumping but he’s already rated on what he’s done and any improvement in his jumping will simply enhance his chances.


BB's subsequent form in the Supreme and in easily winning the Swinton off a much higher mark showed how well in he was at Newbury.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, it isn't a new phenomenon. You wonder how far-sighted some trainers should be.

Maybe horses need races to bring about the improvement but can you imagine what Lie Forrit might have done to the Pertemps field if he'd been campaigned for the race? However, it wouldn't necessarily be a shoo-in.

It still rankles with me that Blue Bajan didn't win the Totesport Trophy two years ago. This is what I wrote on the morning of the race:

I got on at various prices from 36 up to 50 a couple of weeks ago and laid it all off at 8.2. The horse holds entries in the Supreme Novices, for which he’s been backed this week, and Champion Hurdle, which is probably a tad ambitious for the time being. However he was a 111 horse on the Flat and coped well with the hustle and bustle of a 33-runner Cambridgeshire when second to Formal Decree. Richard Hughes revealed on TV this morning that he was asked at Christmas to ride him in this race so this isn’t an afterthought. Trainer Andy Turnell is also on record as saying this horse is better than his Squire Silk, who won it off 145 in 1996. Blue Bajan runs off 128 today. Commentators have mentioned he needs to improve his jumping but he’s already rated on what he’s done and any improvement in his jumping will simply enhance his chances.


BB's subsequent form in the Supreme and in easily winning the Swinton off a much higher mark showed how well in he was at Newbury.
Click to expand...
Several of us were banking on him winning us a huge Scoop6 bonus that day; it was a bit disappointing to say the least.
 
Nick Mordin is very sweet on Tidal Bay from his article in the Irish Field. I think he said he would be unbeaten over hurdles if he hadn't been taking off a straight line in the novice at Cheltenham (don't remember it myself). He makes a very convincing argument which is unusual for Mordin who I normally think is full of himself. I may of course have been tainted by his emphatic view on the chances of Big Zeb in the Champion Chase!!
 
Cantoris said:
Nick Mordin is very sweet on Tidal Bay from his article in the Irish Field. I think he said he would be unbeaten over hurdles if he hadn't been taking off a straight line in the novice at Cheltenham (don't remember it myself). He makes a very convincing argument which is unusual for Mordin who I normally think is full of himself. I may of course have been tainted by his emphatic view on the chances of Big Zeb in the Champion Chase!!
Click to expand...
He also said he'd back Sizing Europe on any ground over any trip against any horse in the UK and Ireland earlier this season.
 
Irish Stamp said:
He also said he'd back Sizing Europe on any ground over any trip against any horse in the UK and Ireland earlier this season.
Click to expand...

That's why I think he's full of himself. Every now and again he does speak sense though. It's a rare commodity as he normally makes some absolute bloomers during the year. I just thought the Tidal Bay piece made sense.
 
Back
Top