The thoughts of Nick Mordin.

SPRINTER SACRE UNSTOPPABLE

The early pace wasn't great in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices Chase at Aintree but from six out Barr Geraghty allowed SPRINTER SACRE (45) to go into the lead and run at the kind of pace he was clearly wanting to go all along.

The result was quite remarkable from a timing standpoint. From the first to the sixth fence Sprinter Sacre was running just 1.1 seconds faster than they covered the same section in the later 3m 1f Listed chase. By the finish he'd expanded the advantage to ten full seconds.

Sprinter Sacre just kept up the increased gallop all the way to the line to score easily.

The performance merits the second successive speed rating of 45 from me. That's the biggest I've awarded a jumper all season.

Now that he's running this fast I would bet on Sprinter Sacre needing breaks between his runs like most top class two mile chasers. The norm for them is that they're at their best on their first two starts of the season and require breaks of at least five weeks between their runs thereafter.

Sprinter Sacre is a big bodied, powerful sort. So it's not surprising to learn that his two winning siblings both won cross country chases in France. One won over 2m 5f, the other over 3m.

The other three pattern class chasers produced by Sprinter Sacre's sire Network are Rubi Light, Rubi Ball and Saint Are. Rubi Light ran second in the Grade 1 Lexus over three miles. Rubi Ball won the Grade 1 Prix la Haye Jousselin over nearly three and a half miles. And Saint Are won the 3m 1f Listed chase on the same Aintree card as Sprinter Sacre.

Given his pedigree, his physique and the way he finished the second half of this race so strongly, makes me think that Sprinter Sacre would have a real chance of staying three miles in next season's King George. Right now trainer Nicky Henderson seems determined to keep him at two miles. And perhaps he pulls too hard to get much longer.

But I'll be very interested to see if he changes his mind by next Christmas. And, whatever happens, Sprinter Sacre remains one of the biggest talents the winter game has seen in the last decade.

Runner up TOUBAB (39) is a very decent horse too. He moved well and pulled a long way clear of the rest as he steadily closed the gap on the winner to three lengths by the second last. Unfortunately he blundered and lost momentum there, ceding an unclosable advantage to the winner. His jockey, Ruby Walsh, took a look over his shoulder between the last two fences, saw that he had second place in the bag and did not punish his mount in a futile effort to catch Sprinter Sacre thereafter.

If his first jumps start had been half a furlong shorter, he hadn't been hampered on his chasing debut and tipped up in two other races, Toubab might well have won all five times he'd run over fixed brush hurdles or fences before this smart run. He has a long raking stride that shows a bit of knee action but has shown that he can act on fast ground.

Toubab is quite a tall sort that's built to go two and a half miles but didn't get home over 2m 1.5f on his debut over fixed brush hurdles in France, being well clear till caught in the last 100 yards. That loss may simply have been due to Toubab running too free, so I'll be interested to see if he's stepped up to two and a half miles later on.



SIMONSIG A HUGE TALENT

SIMONSIG (43) put up a remarkable performance to take the Grade 2 Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree. Always moving easily, he powered clear up the straight to clock an amazingly fast time.

If you time the race from the first hurdle you'll find that they got to the third jump in Simonsig's race 0.4 of a second later than they did in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle on the same card. By the first in the backstraight on the second circuit they'd caught up and were running a second ahead of the more experienced hurdlers. By three out the margin had expanded to 1.3 seconds and Simonsig crossed the finish line 1.6 seconds before Oscar Whisky when he won the Aintree Hurdle.

Incredibly, Simonsig also ran 3.8 seconds faster from what was the first jump in the good two mile handicap hurdle to the finish than they did in the shorter race.

Clearly Simonsig has any amount of ability. He would have won eight of his nine starts but for falling when going well in one of his point to point outings.

It now becomes important to figure out just why Fingal Bay was able to beat Simonsig into second place in that Grade 2 at Sandown. The obvious answer is that the yielding ground and testing track made the race too much of a stamina test for Simonsig.

I think that is the right answer because Simonsig once more showed an abundance of pace in this race. He has real speed and this suggests he's unlikely to have the stamina I thought he might have after his Cheltenham win.

In the circumstances I reckon trainer Nicky Henderson was right to nominate the Arkle rather than the RSA Chase as Simonsig's big objective next season if he goes over fences.

It must be tempting for Simonsig's connections to sidestep the novice chase route and stick to hurdles next season. After all the clock clearly suggests he would have won the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle by around six lengths against the best two and a half mile hurdlers in training.

COLOUR SQUADRON (39) looked booked for second when falling three out. Held up in the rear, he moved forward approaching the straight but was at full stretch due to the winner really kicking on at the time he fell.

This run indicates that Colour Squadron stays two and a half miles. Most likely he'll get three if he switches to fences next season. It's unfortunate that he's fallen in two of his last three starts. But trainer Philip Hobbs now has plenty of time to re-school him and build up his confidence before next season.



SILVINIACO CONTI NOW NICHOLLS BEST THREE MILE CHASER

With Kauto Star now being older than any Grade 1 chase winner ever, he is surely likely to follow Denman into retirement. This leaves SILVINIACO CONTI (41) as Paul Nicholls's best three mile chaser - something he demonstrated with an easy win in the Grade 2 Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree.

Siliviniaco Conti jumped extremely well at every fence and was always moving better than any of his rivals. As the stamina of the runner up ebbed away over the last two fences he bounded clear to score by thirteen lengths and clock a proper Grade 1 time.

Seeing that he's only around 15.3 and about 1050 pounds at most there has to be a concern that Silviniaco Conti is going to have trouble jumping fences in big fields. But he jumped Aintree's stiff fences at speed in great style and won a race over fixed brush hurdles in France against a dozen rivals. So my thinking at this stage is that he's going to emulate smart but small chasers like Docklands Express and Young Hustler and have no problem in big fields.

Siliviniaco Conti showed on his chasing debut and over hurdles that he has trouble coping with sprint finishes. And I think this may prove a problem for him even over three miles. His main weapon is his abundant stamina.

Paul Nicholls says Silviniaco Conti is at his best on a flat track. But he beat Captain Chris by ten lengths in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Chepstow, so I'm not sure he's right. Indeed it seems to me that Silviniaco Conti's stamina makes him a better prospect for the Gold Cup rather than the King George.

Runner up CHAMPION COURT (37) visibly ran out of gas over the last two fences. This is the third time he's failed to stay three miles in three tries, so I think his connections are wrong to aim him at the King George next year. His pedigree, physique and record say the three miles of that race is too far for him.

With the experienced two and a half mile chasers being such a moderate bunch I would have thought that the Ryanair was the right target for Champion Court.





THE TOP TWO AND A HALF MILE CHASERS ARE AWFUL

Two Grade 1 chases for experienced chasers over two and a half miles had been run in Britain before last week's Melling Chase. And both had been run in remarkably slow time. I couldn't find any way to rate either anywhere near a Grade 1 contest however I interpreted the sectional times.

It was therefore no big surprise that despite a decent pace FINIANS RAINBOW (35) clocked an astonishingly slow time when winning the Grade 1 Melling Chase over two and a half miles at Aintree.

Finian's Rainbow won the race easily and wasn't pushed out on the run in. But even if he'd clocked the same time from the last as the fastest finisher at the meeting (Sprinter Sacre) I would only have been able to award him a speed rating of 38 - which is Grade 3 class.

In the circumstances I would be wary of taking this run as evidence that Finian's Rainbow really stays two and a half miles.

The main lesson I take from the race is that next season all the top two and a half mile chases are likely to go to horses that races as novices this term. Horses like Cue Card and Grands Crus would bury everything that ran in this race on my ratings.

The only caveat is that the experienced Irish pair Rubi Light and Joncol are both seriously good chasers over two and a half miles when the ground is soft enough for them.



EDGARDO SOL IS FAST, BUT WILL HE HOLD HIS FORM?

In winning the Red Rum handicap chase EDGARDO SOL (42) got from the first fence to the finish just 1.1 seconds slower than the brilliant Sprinter Sacre managed on similar ground a couple of days later at Aintree. He jumped really well and blasted home by a huge margin.

The question now is whether Edgardo Sol will hold his form.

I say this because the Red Rum chase has a history of producing winners that clock fast times but then disappoint in later outings. Only two of the most recent fifteen winners before Edgardo Sol went on to win another pattern race. Eight of the fifteen never won again.

The plus for Edgardo Sol is that he's the youngest ever win of the race at just five years of age. So he may well be able to recover better from what is always a taxing race.

Edgardo Sol is not big enough to jump fences out of soft ground and has so far not shown his form off a break longer than four weeks. He jumped left one time too and has yet to place in four tries on right handed tracks.

I'm going to bet on Edgardo Sol regressing off this run if he's turned out again this season. And, given the history of Red Rum winners, I'll be inclined to take a negative view of his future prospects until he proves me wrong.





MIDSUMMER SUN CAN WIN BETTER RACES

There have been about a thousand races run over a mile and a half on the All Weather at Lingfield. So the fact that MIDSUMMER SUN (37) broke the course record for the distance last Saturday is noteworthy.

Always moving well on the wide outside, this half brother to Midday accelerated soon after the half mile pole, took the lead entering the straight and kept on running strongly all the way to the line for a two length win.

Midsummer Sun is only a medium sized, rather light-framed colt. I would therefore take careful note of jockey Ian Mongan's comment that he "is a horse that you need to catch first time out." That's true for many light-framed horses.

So far Midsummer Sun has won all three times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more since losing on his debut.

Seeing that he was pushed wide here it may also be that Midsummer Sun's lack of stature makes him unsuited to racing in big fields. In this regard it's interesting to note he's run well below his best both times he's tackled big fields (admittedly off unsuitably short breaks).

In the circumstances I think it would be best for Midsummer Sun to step up to pattern company rather than tackling valuable handicaps where he'd be likely to encounter big fields. He's certainly capable of winning a Listed race on this showing.



FOLLOW THE PLAN DOES BEST ON TIGHT TRACKS

Several races at this year's Aintree Festival were run in unsually slow time for the class - almost certainly because several of the best horses were over the top for the season.

One such race was the Betfred Bowl won by FOLLOW THE PLAN (38).

Follow The Plan was always going strongly and looked the winner from a long way out before kicking clear from before the last.

This was Follow The Plan's third Grade 1 win. So he can't be that bad. In fact he's been very consistent around tight tracks like Aintree's Mildmay course. So far he's won five of the seven times he's completed the course around tight tracks like Aintree and finished third in this race last year in one of his two losses (he was a good second in the other).

FURNER'S GREEN SHOULD DO WELL IN FRANCE

FURNER'S GREEN (38) improved on his seasonal debut to quicken away nicely and win the Group 3 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. His physique, pedigree and the way he raced all suggest strongly that he's a ten furlong horse rather than a miler. But with the top two French 3YO colts going for the Guineas at Newmarket I can't say Furner's Green won't be able to at least place in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas).

Trainer Aidan O'Brien nominated the Prix du Jockey Club as the main target for Furner's Green. The French Guineas looks a logical stepping stone to that race.



LIGHT HEAVY SHOULD IMPROVE MORE OVER 12F

I like the way LIGHT HEAVY (38) really got rolling in the final furlong of the Ballysax Stakes. He was forging clear strongly all the way to the line and clearly won this strongly run race on stamina. He's still a little shy of Group 1 class on this run but I can readily see him improving again when he gets the chance to go a mile and a half.

It's hard to tell from a video but fifth placed DAVID LIVINGSTON (33) looks to have grown more than most three year olds over the winter. He wasn't given a hard time once beaten and almost certainly needed the run like so many Coolmore horses do on their seasonal debuts. I wouldn't be writing him off as a Derby candidate just yet.



FIRE LILY AND UP SHOULD IMPROVE

Sectional times show that Homecoming Queen (35) was allowed to get away with setting a modest early pace in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial. Thanks to this she was able to run the last three furlongs 1.8 seconds faster than they went in the Listed Heritage Stakes - which made her hard to catch. I can't award her a pattern class rating for the effort and she doesn't look to have grown much from two to three (she's rather small). So my bet is she will not prove up to Guineas class.

The second and third - FIRE LILY (35) and UP (34) are bigger, classier looking sorts that were disadvantaged by being held up and asked to gain ground into the accelerating pace. I'd be surprised if they didn't turn out better than the winner.



AMERICA STILL THE BEST SHOT FOR FAMOUS NAME'S ELUSIVE GROUP 1

FAMOUS NAME (40) continued his amazing run in lower grade pattern races when just holding off the late charge of Sharestan in the Listed heritage Stakes at Leopardstown. This means he has now won the last twelve times he's run in Group 3 or lower class.

Despite showing borderline Group 1 class ability for many years Famous Name has yet to win in Group 1 or 2 company in a dozen tries.

I've noted before that if ever Famous Name is going to crack it at Group 1 level it will surely be in America where the turf racers are a couple of notches below their European counterparts and there are stacks of nine and ten furlong Group 1 contests on turf and synthetic surfaces. I stick to that view.

Runner up SHARESTAN (40) looked a little green as he came through with a strong run to almost catch Famous Name. This run showed that he can handle faster ground. He earned a Group 2 class speed rating from me for the second successive time and continues to look a smart prospect.



FORESTER THE BEST 2YO SO FAR

You don't often see a two year old race run at a strong pace throughout this early in the season, particularly when it's over six furlongs. But that's what happened in the maiden won by FORESTER (35) at Leopardstown. He set off in the lead at a strong pace and covered the last five furlongs of his race 1.3 seconds faster than they went in Famous Name's race and 0.3 of a second faster than in Furner's Green's race (where they went much slower for the first three furlongs than in Famous Name's race).

My best estimate is that this merits a Group 3 class speed rating for Forester. And he was eased a bit in the closing strides so he could clearly go a little faster.

It is worth noting that in the last eight seasons Forester's trainer Aidan O'Brien has done really well with his first two year old to win over six furlongs. Six of the last eight to achieve this feat went on to win in Group 1 company. There must be a fair chance that Forester can make it seven out of nine.

The next two places were filled by debutantes DESERT OF DREAMS (33) and MOVE TO STRIKE (33). They were clear of the rest and should be franking this form soon.

POSTED ON APRIL 16, 2012

BEAUTY PARLOUR IS SOMETHING SPECIAL

You wouldn't think that BEAUTY PARLOUR (39) could produce her best form at a mile from looking at her. She's rather a tall, deep chested, long striding sort that looks built for a mile and a half. Her pedigree points the same way too.

However, thanks to yielding ground and a searching early gallop, Beauty Parlour had no problem at all winning the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte, the big trial for the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas).

Beauty Parlour jumped out of the stalls quickly but it was easy for Christophe Soumillon to settle her in fourth thanks to Zantenda charging through to set a fast pace.

Rounding the home turn Beauty Parlour was going so strongly she started to gain without being asked, so Soumillon wrestled her back. Beauty Parlour shook her head briefly in an effort to run faster but settled again within a few strides.

In the straight Beauty Parlour only had to be pushed out with hands and heels to pick up the leaders then power four and a half lengths clear. She clocked a seriously good Group 1 time, earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a three year old filly this early in the season.

Christophe Soumillon was full of praise for Beauty Parlour after the race. He told the TV reporter "She is a champion. When I started her run, I felt she had something different from other horses, like Zarkava at the time even though they differ in how they behave. "

Beauty Parlour may not end up as good as Zarkava. But Soumillon's comparison is appropriate at least insofar as the two fillies' distance range is concerned. Like Zarkava, Beauty Parlour is clearly very effective at a mile but looks likely to do even better over ten furlongs and a mile and a half.

If she were mine I'd be running a pacemaker for Beauty Parlour in the Pouliches to ensure she doesn't get done for speed in a sprint finish. And that would certainly be the last time I'd run her over a mile.

Beauty Parlour's program pretty much writes itself from this point. She will surely follow Zarkava and tackle the Pouliches, the Prix de Diane, the Vermeille and then the Arc. Only time will tell whether she's up to emulating Zarkava. All I can say right now is that she's almost certainly the best three year old filly in Europe.

The other horse to take from the race for me is ZANTENDA (31) who simply went too fast to last home. She clocked a time 4.64 seconds faster than the colts in the Prix de Fontainebleau for the first five furlongs and this caused the fillies to back up and run the final three furlongs 1.73 seconds slower.

Zantenda is a muscular, mature, speedily bred filly. Last year I read her totally wrong, suggesting that she'd be suited by ten furlongs. But clearly she's a miler and might well be able to cut back to seven furlongs or even less. My thinking now is that she'd be best on faster ground and obviously ridden with more restraint. I wouldn't dismiss her chances in the Pouliches but the race I'd like to see her in most would be the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. The lightning fast ground that race is normally run on and the slow early pace that often prevails would suit her perfectly.





DRAGON PULSE A BIG PLAYER IN THE FRENCH GUINEAS

It was good to see DRAGON PULSE (38) win the big trial for the French Guineas, the Prix de Fontainebleau. I'm thinking they took him to France to exploit the softer ground they tend to have over there. It was good to soft officially for the Prix de Fontainebleau and race times back that up.

Dragon Pulse raced in last in a slow run contest and picked up strongly in the straight to get up and beat the hot favourite Dabirsim - a doubtful stayer whose jockey was trying to nurse home.

As ever Dragon Pulse raced with his head a bit high. But I think that's just the way he's built. He barrelled down the straight very willingly and showed lots of energy to get up. Once more he gave the impression he'd get longer (this was a mile). So I imagine his connections are serious about that entry in the Prix du Jockey Club (2100 metres).

It's now looking a very smart idea to have moved Dragon Pulse to France. It seems likely that French Fifteen and Abtaal, the top two French colts are going to run in the British Guineas. The same is true for his old conqueror Power. That makes Dragon Pulse look rather a solid proposition for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas.)

Dragon Pulse is too muscle-bound to get a mile and a half but he's got to have a shot of winning the Prix du Jockey Club after this run, even if he doesn't quite make it in the French Guineas. The obvious concern would be fast ground as he's rather too top heavy to like it. But they have very good modern watering systems at French tracks so that's less of a problem than it would be in Britain or Ireland.

Dragon Pulse ran a time 2.9 seconds slower than the fillies did in the equivalent race for them on the same card. But he covered the last three furlongs over 1.7 seconds faster. The slow early pace compromised the time. I reckon the best comparison is the last five furlongs which was 0.13 of a second slower than the fillies. But it's worth bearing in mind the fillies' winner, Beauty Parlour, looks something special.

Hot favourite DABIRSIM (38) looked a doubtful stayer to me last year because he runs like a sprinter and is built like one. His dam failed to stay beyond six and a half furlongs and only one of her five foals has won beyond sprint trips so far.

Christophe Soumillon gave Dabirsim every chance to win, saving as much energy as possible in a slow run race. He let his mount stride on with two furlongs left and led a furlong out. But, sneakily, he deliberately didn't ride Dabirsim out. Instead he looked back six times over his shoulder, clearly trying to save something for a brief late burst to hold off any late run from his rivals. Unfortunately when the late run materialised from Dragon Pulse Dabirsim had very little response. He rapidly surrendered his two length lead in the final hundred yards.

I have to say that if Dabirsim can't stay a mile in a slow run race like this his chances of doing so in the Poulains do not look great as the pace is likely to be a good deal faster there. Perhaps a faster surface will enable him to last home. And maybe a bigger field will make it easier for him to settle (he did pull rather hard early here). But on balance I have to stick to my view that Dabirsim is a sprinter.





ORION MOON A SERIOUS CLASSIC PROSPECT

ORION MOON (37) clocked a good time when winning a hot debutante's race over ten furlongs at Longchamp. After making most of the running at a decent pace she kicked nearly four lengths clear approaching the final furlong and was never in any danger from the late run of the second placed finisher. Here ears were going all over the place - a clear indication of greenness. So she may well be able to improve on this effort.

Orion Moon is a well made, long striding, classy looking filly that has the build of a mile and a half performer. She's by Manduro who showed smart form at 8-10f before stepping up to 12f to win the Prix Niel on his final start. Her dam has produced a two and a half mile hurdle winner and another horse that than a close third in the Prix du Cadran (the French Gold Cup) over two and half miles on the flat.

My feeling is that Orion Moon is going to do best over a mile and a half. But if she sidestepped the scary Beauty Parlour in the Prix de Diane I can see her scoring a Group 1 win over ten furlongs in the Prix Saint-Alary (which is often a weak race for the class).
 
He's got Beauty Parlour nailed on right. Some German bookies have been offering prices for the Diane starting at 5/1 and I have been betting her down for that race ever since. Will easily be my biggest bet of the year. If she shows up she wins and she'll be odds against or very close to it. I'd very interested in an Arc quote for her.
 
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Betfair prices are irrelevant with zero liquidity and huge spreads. Will get close to 10/1 after she scoots up in the Diane.
 
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STIPULATE CAN WIN A DERBY TRIAL

The early pace was slow in the Feilden Stakes, leading to a near sprint finish. But STIPULATE (38) still managed to totally outpace his rivals in the closing stages, kicking nearly five lengths clear after taking the lead approaching the furlong pole.

Stipulate has the build of a horse that might get a mile and a half and will certainly stay ten furlongs. On this showing he has every chance of winning a Derby Trial, with his most likely target being the Dee Stakes.

The one caveat I would have is that race times indicate the going was yielding and Stipulate does show a bit of knee action. In three previous starts on faster ground his sole win was a short head success in a maiden. Trainer Henry Cecil says he was too immature to run his best then. But I still want to see Stipulate prove that he can handle fast Summer ground.



MAYSON A CANDIDATE FOR GROUP 1 SPRINTS

In the last quarter century only three horses have won Newmarket's Abernant Stakes by three lengths or more. The first two were Lake Coniston and Bold Fact who both went on to win in Group 1 company. The third is this year's winner MAYSON (42) who has a good chance of emulating their top level success if my ratings are any guide..

The early pace was moderate in the Abernant Stakes this year. This normally leads to a bunched finish, especially in a sprint. But Mayson quickened up remarkably in the closing stages to open up a gap of three and a half lengths while clocking the fastest time of the two day meeting over the final three furlongs.

Three year olds have a tough time beating their elders in Listed and Group sprints. Those that do well in such races as Mayson did often improve significantly at four years of age. Mayson certainly seems to have. His trainer says the improvement is mainly due to the fact this was the first time he's contented to settle.

I like Mayson's chances of following up this win in the Duke Of York Stakes next time. And my ratings say he wouldn't be out of place lining up against the Aussie invaders at Royal Ascot after that.



ROUGEMONT IS SMART

I liked the way ROUGEMONT (38) won the valuable Tattersalls Millions race over ten furlongs at Newmarket. At the end of a very strongly run contest he got the better of a long duel with the 112 rated Mickdaam and actually looked like he could have pulled out a bit more if needed.

Rougemont is built and bred for a mile and a half. But I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that he should be supplemented for the Derby. His form suggests that he's best off breaks of six weeks or more. He's won all three times he's been rested that long and run below form both times he hasn't.

This was just a good Group 3 effort by Rougemont. But I think he can run improve on it especially over a mile and a half. His logical target would be the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. If he's rested until that race I'd like his chances.

Runner up MICKDAAM (38) had a fitness edge due to being campaigned in Dubai. He's rather ungainly and got unbalanced in the closing stages, hanging towards the winner and squeezing out the third horse in the process. He's a solid Group 3 horse on all known form and is a bit too exposed to have the potential to prove better than that.

Third placed ARSAADI (36) had to be taken up when squeezed out by Mickdaam in the closing stages. But for this I think she'd have finished something like a length and a half closer. I'm rating her on that basis which makes her look a decent candidate for an Oaks trial. Clearly she improved markedly for the step up to ten furlongs.



VOW SHOULD IMPROVE OVER LONGER

VOW (36) won the same 10f fillies maiden at Newbury that her stablemate Dancing Rain took before winning the Oaks last year. She's a very different sort of filly to Dancing Rain, but I wouldn't knock her Epsom chances at this stage.

Vow is a strong, mature, good-bodied, rather powerful filly. In the early stages jockey Johnny Murtagh brought her across from her wide draw to settle in last place of the fourteen runners. She was still last as they passed the five furlong marker, ten lengths off the leader.

Soon after Vow began to move forwards despite having to be pushed along from some way out. She'd improved to seventh at the two furlong pole but was still only fourth by four lengths with a furlong left to run.

From there Vow simply bounded forward, showing tremendous energy. Murtagh soon realised he only needed to shake the whip at her then push her out with hands and heels to close the gap with remarkable speed, take the lead and win by a rapidly widening length.

Despite the searching early gallop and very soft ground Vow actually looked stronger at the end of the race than at any other stage. She only clocked a Listed class time. But the way she was running away from her rivals in the last half furlong tells me that she might well have won this by five or six lengths and clocked a proper Group class time if the distance had been a mile and a half.

By a Derby winner and with plenty of stamina on the dam's side, the main concern I have about Vow in relation to the Oaks is that she might actually prove best over the St Leger distance. She's very strong and exhibited remarkable stamina to finish so powerfully off such a fast early gallop on very slow ground.

Everything in Vow's pedigree says faster ground shouldn't be a problem. Her stride looks more suited to a quicker surface too.

I like the fact that Vow was happy to be manouvered in and out of this big field even when she was at full stretch due to the early pace. She's a very tractable, well balanced filly that might well be able to handle the gradients at Epsom.

Vow's connections now face a choice between the Swettenham Stud Stakes that Dancing Rain ran second in last year and the Musidora. If she were mine I'd be inclined to go for the York race as it's nearly half a furlong longer, usually features stronger opposition and is normally run on fast ground. It would therefore provide a better guide to her chances at Epsom. (I see that her connections have subsequently come to the same conclusion).

Runner up EVERLONG (35) put up a very good performance considering that she probably set slightly too strong a gallop for the ground. I was impressed with the way she rather quickly opened up a gap of over four lengths on the rest in the final furlong as she tried to hold off the winner. I can readily see her improving enough off this run to win in pattern company.



MOONSTONE MAGIC A SMART FILLY

MOONSTONE MAGIC (39) clocked a proper Group 1 time for a 3YO filly when winning the Fred Darling Stakes. She lobbed along in last place, cruised up to lead a furlong out and didn't need to be pushed hard to quickly go nearly four lengths clear.

Moonstone Magic is a big, muscular filly that might just end up being best over the seven furlongs of the Fred Darling. You can argue whether she'll get another furlong either way on pedigree but her physique is that of a sprinter and does make me cautious about assuming she will stay a mile - despite the fact she ran so fast over seven furlongs on really slow ground here.

Trainer Ralph Beckett has kept Moonstone Magic to soft ground for her two starts so far (she won her debut easily too). He says she needs cut in the ground. For this reason he thinks the Irish Guineas is her most suitable target as it provides a slower surface more often than the British and French equivalents.

If Moonstone Magic fails to stay the mile at the Curragh her obvious target will surely be the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp's Arc meeting. It would also be interesting to see how she fares dropped back to six furlongs for the Sprint Cup at Haydock if she got her ground.



HARRIS TWEED HARD TO BEAT IN MUD

HARRIS TWEED (41) set a strong pace and just kept on rolling to win the John Porter Stakes on soft ground at Newbury.

So far Harris Tweed has run four times on soft ground and his only loss was a very good second place finish in a hot renewal of last year's Hardwicke Stakes.

The way that Harris Tweed repelled a strong challenge from runner up Allied Powers to score by five lengths suggests to me that he's actually capable of winning a Group 1 on soft ground.

This win makes Harris Tweed eligible for the Melbourne Cup in November, a race his trainer is keen on. I reckon he'd have a real shot in that race if the surface was slow enough. He'd certainly make the race a challenge for the commentator if the useful Australian contender also called Harris Tweed makes the line up.

Runner up ALLIED POWERS (38) was swinging off the bridle with a quarter mile to run and looked sure to get by the winner. But he always seems to need his first run of the season and couldn't quite carry through with his effort.

Allied Powers always seems to be at his best in the first week of June or earlier. Toss out his seasonal debuts and his form figures over 11f plus on turf in this period shows six wins from eight tries. One of his losses was a second placing to St Nicholas Abbey in last year's Ormonde Stakes. The other was a good third to Group 1 performers Silver Pond and Behkabad in the Grand Prix de Chantilly on his next start. No doubt both those races will be on his agenda again this term. He should have a good chance of winning them, one that would be enhanced by some cut in the ground. It's worth noting he's run as fast as the winner on my ratings in the past and is as good as ever on this showing.





DON'T UNDER RATE ESENTEPE

ESENTEPE (37) clocked a decent time when taking the Nell Gwyn Stakes. She raced in second place in a strongly run race till kicking nearly two lengths clear approaching the final furlong. The runner up and third charged late and cut her winning margin to a neck but she never looked likely to be caught.

Esentepe's sire and dam were both best over ten furlongs. So it's interesting that her trainer said she'd be entered for the Musidora rather than being supplemented for the Guineas. That seems a logical race as she had to show stamina to win this race and her sole win in ten previous starts came the only time she ran beyond a mile when scoring over sixty yards beyond that trip at Leicester.

Esentepe is a much bigger, stronger filly than the two that chased her home. The ground was yielding judged by race times but she has a fast ground action so my bet is she will prove best suited by a fast surface and won't act on soft.

This was a very decent effort. If she can run this well in the Musidora she has a serious shot of winning it.

Runner up NAYARRA (37) is only a small filly but clearly a useful one. Her sole previous win in nine starts came in the Group 1 Gran Criterium at san Siro. That was the only time she's run a mile. Seeing how strongly she was finishing here she looks likely to be better suited to that distance than seven furlongs and might well get a mile and a quarter. Her lack of stature makes me a little concerned about her ability to handle big fields. But this was a thirteen runner contest and she seemed to cope with it fine.



ES QUE LOVE A USEFUL SPRINTER

Fast sprinters are a dime a dozen in Britain. But I must mention ES QUE LOVE (37) because he clocked a very good time for an early season 3YO when winning a class 2 sprint handicap by two lengths at Newmarket. He made all the running and was never in any danger. So I can readily see him running a bit faster than this if pressed.

Es Que Love has won both his starts this season and is capable of winning in Listed company at least on this showing.



TASSEL NOT FAR OFF QUEEN MARY CLASS

I liked the way TASSEL (33) sustained her effort to forge clear in the final furlong despite running a little green when winning a juvenile maiden at Newmarket.

This run ranks as good Listed class for an early season two year old and it's easy to believe Tassel could find the improvement required to become a serious Queen Mary candidate.





BAILEYS JUBILEE PROBABLY NOT THAT FAST

BAILEYS JUBILEE (30) looked awfully impressive when running away with a juvenile conditions race at Newmarket. But she didn't clock a pattern class time or come home particularly fast over the last three furlongs. And she only had three opponents.

My ratings suggest that this run and her debut win both merited the same rating for Baileys Jubilee, which is a couple of lengths per mile off pattern class. Of course she may prove better. And it's tough to rate an easy winner. But I'll be looking for something to beat Baileys Jubilee when she steps up to pattern company.



TRUMPET MAJOR AN UNLIKELY GUINEAS WINNER

Before this year Richard Hannon had run four horses in the Craven Stakes that earned Racing Post ratings of 100 or more over seven furlongs as two year olds. The four horses in question were

1990...Tirol............................WON 9-2

2000...Umistim.......................WON 8-1

2001...King's Ironbridge.........WON 12-1

2003...Hurricane Alan.............WON 9-1

Four winners out of four is pretty amazing. But this year Hannon topped even that. He ran two horses in the Craven Stakes that had earned Racing Post ratings of 100 plus over seven furlongs at two and they ran first and second.

The two horses in question were the winner TRUMPET MAJOR (35) and runner up Crius.

Hannon has a remarkable record in Guineas trials (he won the Nell Gwyn the previous day). But you could argue that nowadays, with so many of the top contenders coming to the Guineas fresh, British and Irish trainers who target Guineas Trials as strongly as Hannon put their horses at a disadvantage for the first two Classics.

In the last five seasons nine of the ten winners of the first two Classics were either making their seasonal debuts or were trained in France (where the Guineas trials are run earlier, giving winners more time to recover before the big race.) The lone exception was the mighty Frankel.

This may explain why Richard Hannon has run 20 horses in the 1000 Guineas and 29 in the 2000 Guineas since his last success back in 1990 and they've all lost.

Can Trumpet Major break Hannon's epic losing run in the Guineas? I doubt it.

The clock suggests that Trumpet Major was a seriously sub-par winner of the Craven.

You can see what I mean by comparing Trumpet Major's performance with that of Questioning, just an average winner of the following Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes over a furlong extra.

Trumpet Major clocked a time that was four fifths of a second per mile further off my standard time than Questioning. He covered the last six and a half furlongs just under three fifths of a second slower and the last three furlongs almost seven tenths of a second slower than Questioning. There's simply no way I can award him a Group class speed rating for his win.

I guess you could argue that Trumpet Major might have run a little bit faster if he hadn't edged right across the track in the closing stages after being switched for a run. But it would be generous to add two points to his rating for that and this would only bump up his rating to weak Group 3 for an early season 3YO colt.

On the plus side Trumpet Major has apparently grown significantly over the winter. As a two year old his lack of stature seemed to present him with problems when it came to big fields. But he won a twelve runner race here without shying away from closing gaps as he had in the Dewhurst and the Coventry Stakes last year. Then again he was able to make his winning run through a gap that a double decker bus could have gone through. So I'm going to be cautious about betting him to win in bigger fields than this on a straight course or in anything but a single figure field around a turn.

Another way to approach the analysis of Trumpet Major's win is to say that he was able to kick away and win by such a wide margin because the early pace was just a bit too fast to be sustained (only one other race at the two day meeting featured a final three furlongs as slow).

In other words the early gallop was so strong it caused what I call a pace collapse which hurt the final time. After all the Craven field ran 4.1 seconds faster for the first five furlongs than they did in the Wood Ditton and ended up covering the final three furlongs 2.3 seconds slower.

The searching early gallop certainly made the race more of a stamina test than most races over a mile. This suggests that Trumpet Major may actually do best going ten furlongs rather than a mile - something his trainer suggested after the race.

However the idea that the early gallop was strong enough to hurt the final time seems a bit of a reach. The early pace in the Wood Ditton was moderate. The relative sectional times of the Earl Of Sefton offer a fairer comparison. And the early pace in that race was just as strong but they finished a good deal faster.

One of the things that identifies a truly top class horse is their ability to clock a fast final time off an early gallop that's too fast or too slow for a merely useful horse to recover from. If Trumpet Major was fast enough to win a Guineas he should have run a fast time off the early gallop he encountered in the Craven.

Runner up CRIUS (30) was moving best with two and a half furlongs to run. He was moving smoothly in the lead while everything else was under pressure. He dropped to 6-4 in running at this point. But in the closing stages the strong early pace told, his stamina ran out and his stablemate raced away from him.

Crius has now won all three times he's run seven furlongs and lost all three times he's tried longer. He won a red hot renewal of the Somerville Tattersall Stakes over seven furlongs and looks an obvious candidate for the Jersey Stakes at that distance.





UK GUINEAS TRIALS NEED TO BE RUN EARLIER

In the old days it was common for horses to win a Guineas trial at Newbury or Newmarket and then go on to win the Guineas. But in the last eleven years only two 1000 or 2000 Guineas winners have taken the big race off breaks shorter than 19 days (from 134 tries).

Clearly trainers are reluctant nowadays to give a serious Guineas prospect a prep race so close to the Classic. This is why we've seen so many sub-par renewals of the Classic Trials at Newbury and Newmarket in recent years. The median Racing Post rating earned by runners in these four races was 99 in the five years to 2000. From 2001 it has dropped to 94.

The latest running of the Greenham Stakes suffered particularly badly. The two top contenders (as judged by the current Guineas betting), Top Offer and Tales Of Grimm, were both pulled out of the race after being declared as their trainers were reluctant to run them on testing ground so close to the Guineas.

As a result five rather ordinary horses went to post and it was won in slow time by CASPAR NETSCHER (35) from BOOMERANG BOB (34) who both look unlikely to make any impression in future Group 1 races.

Around the world it is now the norm to stage major Classic Trials three weeks before the Classic itself. Running the top four UK Guineas Trials later than this is obviously a hangover from an earlier era and a mistake for modern racing.

If the Greenham, the Fred Darling, the Craven and the Nell Gwyn Stakes are to retain their prestige and be regarded as proper Guineas Trials a way surely has to be found to run them at least four or five days, preferably a week earlier. I can't think of a more urgent issue for the race planners to tackle than this.





NOBLE MISSION HAS A REAL SHOT IN DANTE

Like his three parts brother Bullet Train and full brother Frankel, NOBLE MISSION (36) has an enormous stride and pulls like crazy. And he's clearly the third pattern class horse out of three produced by his dam judged on his effort when winning a one mile maiden at Newbury's Spring fixture.

Most horses would tire badly after pulling as hard on testing ground as Noble Mission did in the early stages. But he came through moving strongly to power clear.

Although he resembles his siblings, Noble Mission looks a more rangy, longer distance sort than either of them. I'm rather confident he will stay the Derby distance. This being so it looks a logical move to take up his entry in the Dante Stakes next time out.

Camelot will be long odds on for the Dante if he runs in the race instead of the Guineas (which I'm betting he does). But the history of racing shows you shouldn't be scared of one horse. If Noble Mission improves for the step up in distance as seems likely he's going to be a serious player in the Dante - whether Camelot runs or not.





TARTIFLETTE BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER

Over the last ten years or so the number of 3YO turf handicaps before June that feature future pattern racers has increased massively in Britain.

One such race was the seven furlong 0-95 handicap at Newbury's Spring meeting.

The pace in this contest was slow for the first couple of furlongs - 1.4 seconds slower then the following maiden. But they picked up to cover the last five furlongs 1.9 seconds faster than in the maiden and 1.5 seconds over the last three furlongs. As the pace built up it became clear that two horses were moving better than the rest. In the final sprint they quickly pulled clear to duel to the line.

The winner was the good bodied, muscular, mature John Gosden trained GREGORIAN (36). He raced in second, moved up to lead entering the final furlong, soon got headed by Tartiflette who was cruising but then rallied back to lead again late when she idled and ran green in front.

Gregorian's two wins have both been with cut in the ground and he lost his action in the dip on a fast surface at Newmarket. So there are obviously some concerns about quicker ground, especially seeing he's heavier than average. But my read of his pedigree and stride pattern suggest that he'll handle it okay.

A mile shouldn't be a problem for Tartiflette and I note with interest he's already jocked up for this weekend's Esher Cup at Sandown over that distance. His trainer, John Gosden, has won two of the last three renewals of that race.

Gregorian is only Listed class on this showing, but it's early days yet.

Runner up TARTIFLETTE (36) was always moving strongly as she raced in fourth until asked for her effort. When that happened she went by the eventual winner with ease and looked set to score narrowly but comfortably. However she idle and ran green in front and started easing herself up despite her jockey's efforts to prevent this. As a result she got headed again close home.

Clearly Tartiflette can run a bit quicker than this. That suggests she may actually be Group class.

Despite the dam's side of her pedigree being stacked with sprinters I'm rather confident that Tartiflette will get a mile on what I saw here, possibly longer. She got outpaced over six furlongs first time out and did everything but win a seven furlong race here on very slow ground.

Tartiflette's connections may find it tempting to exploit her low official handicap mark. But job one with a well bred filly that shows pattern class ability is to earn some black type. So I imagine she'll be stepping up to a Listed or Group 3 contest next time. There are opportunities during May for her over a mile at this level in Ireland, Germany and Italy. But the easiest step would be to stay local and go for the Listed Michael Seely Memorial at York's Dante meeting.



GELDING REVIVES FORM OF CAPTAIN BERTIE AND FURY

Early last season CAPTAIN BERTIE (38) and FURY (38) clocked Group class times and looked set to win big races. But their form fell apart later and they ran a series of clunkers.

Before this season both horses were gelded and now they've gone and bounced back to their best to run first and second in the valuable Spring Cup at Newbury - fighting out a close finish while pulling clear of the other twenty runners.

Big handicaps like the Spring Cup are very competitive. So I wouldn't anticipate Captain Bertie or Fury winning more than one of them this season. But I rather like the chances of runner up Fury being able to win in Group company later on. He's a bigger, stronger, more attractive horse than Captain Bertie and was giving a stone to his rival here. Best of all he has the physique and the pedigree to stay ten furlongs and is clearly very versatile in regards to going and type of track............
 
..............REQUISITION LOOKS LIKE A MIDDLE DISTANCE HORSE

REQUISITION (37) clocked a decent time when winning the Listed Loughbrown Stakes. He seemed to be in the race as a pacemaker for stablemate Nephrite but just kept on running to score by nearly two lengths.

On pedigree a mile looks the absolute maximum for Requisition. After all his sire was champion sprinter and his half sister, his dam and her six siblings all failed to win beyond a mile.

The thing is Requisition is a strong, long striding, rangy sort that won over a mile and a hundred yards as a two year old. His sire actually gets quite a few good middle distance sorts and he holds an entry in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. I reckon the soft ground and the decent pace he set brought his stamina into play. As I see it he deserves a shot in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, even if it's only as a pacemaker.

Red hot favourite NEPHRITE (33) cruised through most of the race and looked set to take the leader any time he was asked. But he didn't make the expected progress and wasn't given a hard time once it was clear he couldn't win.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien said after the race "He could be just a fast horse. He's a half brother to Cape Of Good Hope. We wouldn't be sure he'd get a mile. He travelled very well but just get found out on the soft ground."

Nephrite has an even speedier pedigree than Requisition and does look to be a real pacey type. So it will be interesting to see how he does if he takes up his entry in the 6f Greenlands Stakes next month. However he surely has to be given a chance to see if he'll stay the mile on faster ground later on as he looked awfully good as a two year old.





DUNTLE IS PATTERN CLASS

There have been 1016 races run on Dundalk's Polytrack. And until DUNTLE (36) romped home in an eight runner maiden by eighteen lengths earlier this week the biggest winning margin had been 9.5 lengths - and that was in a three runner race.

In fact in over 15,000 British and Irish Polytrack races since the surface was first used, just one horse has bettered Duntle's winning margin, and that was in a four runner contest. To beat a decent sized field by eighteen lengths on a surface which usually produces bunch finishes is quite something.

The reason for Duntle's extra wide winning margin is the remarkable burst of speed she showed over the final three furlongs.

Up to the three furlong marker Duntle had been coasting along in the lead at a comfortable pace. But when her jockey asked her to pick up at that point the response was fantastic. Duntle proceeded to sprint the final three furlongs in just 34.4 seconds. That's two seconds better than the next fastest finish on the card.

My sectional timing formula suggests this run is worth a rating that just edges into pattern class for an early season 3YO filly. There's obviously a concern that Duntle will emulate her dam and fail to win on anything but Polytrack. But the front running tactics she adopted here are not ideally suited to the surface. So I'm thinking there's every chance she'll adapt to turf.



EASY FOR EXCELEBRATION

EXCELEBRATION (37) barely had to break sweat to canter away with the Gladness Stakes on his first start for Aidan O'Brien. But for traffic trouble at Royal Ascot and bumping into Frankel, Excelebration would probably have been winning for the ninth time in a row here. He's clearly a smart miler.

What makes me a little cautious is that Excelebration has yet to win a Group 1 race or clock a proper Group 1 time. His next run in the Lockinge should tell us whether he's up to doing that.......
 
.........SOLEMIA IS TOP CLASS

SOLEMIA (41) put up a tremendous performance to win the Listed Prix Seymour at Longchamp on her seasonal debut. She raced wide and had to be nudged along a few times in the early stages. But as the strong pace began to tell she started to go a lot better than her rivals. And she ended up sweeping by them all down the outside and surging clear for a four length success.

Trainer Carlos Laffron-Parias says that injuries mean Solemia wasn't able to show her best until late last season. If you toss out her earlier runs she would have won her last four but for getting beat a neck by the smart globetrotter Vadamar in the Group 2 Prix du Conseil des Paris.

Actually I see another obvious pattern in Solemia's form. She's only won a Listed race by a neck from five tries on tracks less than a mile and a half in circumference. But on bigger tracks she'd be four from four but for that narrow loss to Vadamar (her debut loss at Longchamp was on the 11f middle course).

Solemia's next two potential targets are the Prix d'Hedouville around Longchamp's 12.5f main course and the Grand Prix de Chantilly around that track's 12f Jockey Club course. Later on though if she runs around slightly tighter courses like Saint-Cloud I'm going to be more cautious about her chances. She's met traffic problems around tighter tracks before and look a while to get rolling after having to race wide this time.

As with Giofra, another top class French four year old filly, Solemia's obvious long term targets are the Vermeille and the Arc. She's fast enough to have a shot in both those races.
 
UK GUINEAS TRIALS NEED TO BE RUN EARLIER

In the old days it was common for horses to win a Guineas trial at Newbury or Newmarket and then go on to win the Guineas. But in the last eleven years only two 1000 or 2000 Guineas winners have taken the big race off breaks shorter than 19 days (from 134 tries).

Clearly trainers are reluctant nowadays to give a serious Guineas prospect a prep race so close to the Classic. This is why we've seen so many sub-par renewals of the Classic Trials at Newbury and Newmarket in recent years. The median Racing Post rating earned by runners in these four races was 99 in the five years to 2000. From 2001 it has dropped to 94.

The latest running of the Greenham Stakes suffered particularly badly. The two top contenders (as judged by the current Guineas betting), Top Offer and Tales Of Grimm, were both pulled out of the race after being declared as their trainers were reluctant to run them on testing ground so close to the Guineas.

As a result five rather ordinary horses went to post and it was won in slow time by CASPAR NETSCHER (35) from BOOMERANG BOB (34) who both look unlikely to make any impression in future Group 1 races.

Around the world it is now the norm to stage major Classic Trials three weeks before the Classic itself. Running the top four UK Guineas Trials later than this is obviously a hangover from an earlier era and a mistake for modern racing.

If the Greenham, the Fred Darling, the Craven and the Nell Gwyn Stakes are to retain their prestige and be regarded as proper Guineas Trials a way surely has to be found to run them at least four or five days, preferably a week earlier. I can't think of a more urgent issue for the race planners to tackle than this.
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What does everyone make of this?
 
Bar the Bull said:
What does everyone make of this?
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It’s difficult to get them ready earlier they are only babies remember, but I’ve always argued that the classics should be run a year later when they are four (they don’t stop growing or bones forming until at least four). The reason they aren’t is that the breeding industry (which is overproduced anyway) would need to keep them for an extra year.
 
I know Steve. I was being sarcastic.... :)

Bully, I think he has a point but I'm not sure moving the trials earlier will have an effect. It's more that trainers are minding their horses for all of the big end of season prizes. Champions Day, Arc day and breeders cup etc.
 
It is true that these trials are now almost irrelevant, but I think that is because the spring as a whole is a less important part of the flat season than it used to be.
 
Why do traditionalists year for everything in racing to stay the same? The trials are no longer as relevant as they were, move on. It's no different from the Gladness Stakes in Ireland.
 
Grey said:
It is true that these trials are now almost irrelevant, but I think that is because the spring as a whole is a less important part of the flat season than it used to be.
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Agree. Moving the trials a week earlier would make little difference. Those trainers that want to get that home would still go straight there and those that wanted a trial would do the same. There are races like the Spring Cup at Lingfield over 7f and the old Easter Stakes/Masaka this year that preceeded the Craven/Greenham had trainers wanted an extra layoff from the trial.
 
It's not just the layoff after the trials though it's getting them ready for the trials in the first place for horses barely older than two. If it's a bad winter you'd barely get any lining up. There might be a case for moving the Guineas itself back, but that would have a knock on effect for the Derby, Ascot, etc.
 
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SteveM said:
...and finishing runner-up to Frankel in the QE II would have won him his second Group 1 in any year that didn't include the phenomenon that is Frankel.
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I think you can forgive the odd mistake becuase everyone can be forgetfull at times, particulary someone like Mordin who probably dreams of stats and times and trends but he seems to be suggesting that Excelebration isn't a proper Group 1 calibre horse yet which is ashtonshing.
 
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Euronymous said:
I think you can forgive the odd mistake becuase everyone can be forgetfull at times, particulary someone like Mordin who probably dreams of stats and times and trends but he seems to be suggesting that Excelebration isn't a proper Group calibre horse yet which is ashtonshing.
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...indeed we all make such oversights (especially in the context of the forum where things are often off the top of our heads and we may not have entirely understood what we are responding to). When writing for publication though checking facts is a professional responsibility, nevertheless mistakes can still be made. But coming up with the idea that a horse such as this is somehow lacking in ability and then supporting it with stuff that has no foundation... it's more than just taking your eye off the ball... as you say astonishing.
 
GOLDONI IS SMART AND MISTER MUSIC MAY BE EVEN SMARTER

Back in 2009 the subsequent Group 1 winners Debussy and Midday fought out the finish of the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. They both earned a good write up from me in what I rated the best renewal of the race in many years.

Now a big boost in prize money and a slight name change to the Investec Derby Trial has seen the same race produce another two horses that have earned speed ratings from me just as big as those I gave Debussy and Midday.

I'm talking about Goldoni and Mister Music who finished first and second this year.

MISTER MUSIC (38) was allowed to set a rather moderate pace, which resulted in a final time three seconds slower than the City & Suburban handicap over the same course and distance. But the field picked up tremendously in the closing stages to cover the final 3.2 furlongs from the path at the entrance to the straight a huge 3.6 seconds faster than they did in the City & Suburban. My sectional timing formula says this merits a speed rating that's solid Group 2 class for a three year old this early in the year.

As they swung wide off the home turn to make their way to the stands rail (the norm on soft ground at Epsom) Neil Callan nipped through down the inside of Mister Music on his mount Cameron Highland to deny him the rail.

This move only secured the lead for Cameron Highland briefly. But I think it helped kick start the process which saw Mister Music become unbalanced and difficult to ride.

It's hard enough for a horse to stay balanced when it's trying to ride the counter camber up Epsom's homestraight. However when it doesn't have the rail to guide it the task becomes a whole lot harder, especially on heavy ground. Ryan Moore tried his hardest to keep Mister Music straight but his mount's head was pointing left and he was hanging towards the rail all the way through the last quarter mile. This forced Moore to stop riding in an effort to correct his mount's steering a couple of times.

Mister Music ended up getting headed at the furlong pole and beaten despite still going strongly all the way to the line. My feeling is that he was made unbalanced by the counter camber, the heavy ground and being denied the rail. In normal circumstances, especially on faster ground, I think he would have won.

Mister Music was kept to sprints for his first four starts but won the first time he was stepped up beyond a mile. Then he ran second over nine furlongs to Derby fancy Stipulate in the 9f Feilden Stakes where he set a slow pace. Over ten furlongs he improved again here and he could be pretty darned special over a mile and a half.

The winner GOLDONI (39) showed real stamina to sustain his effort and get by the winner on such slow ground. Clearly he will have no problem staying a mile and a half.

Goldoni now heads to the Lingfield Derby Trial where he should have a favourite's chance if my ratings are any guide. He's a gelding so is ineligible for the Derby. But he should go well in the King Edward VII Stakes. His obvious long term target is surely the Canadian International, a race that his trainer Andrew Balding won with another 3yo, Phoenix reach, back in 2003.



AIKEN JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

AIKEN (37) produced a performance that would win a Listed race on my ratings when taking the Great Metropolitan Handicap at Epsom.

The early pace was a little slow but the last 3 furlongs were a second faster than in the quarter mile shorter City & Suburban which justifies the good rating.

Aiken went clear in the final furlong and always looked likely to hold the late run of the runner up who pulled six lengths clear of the rest. He's now won all four of his starts since losing on his debut in a wide variety of circumstances.

I can readily see Aiken winning in Listed and Group 3 company after this. He's only four and just keeps on winning.

Runner up FIRST AVENUE (37) is now seven. And it does seem he's best suited to tight, undulating tracks like Epsom. He just missed out on second place in the fast run ten furlong handicap won by Conduit in fast time on Derby day 2008. Since then he's run four times over longer distances on tight, undulating tracks and would have own all four times but for a bad blunder at the last in one hurdle race and coming up against a pattern class winner here.



GERMANY CALLING FOR COLOMBIAN

The Gordon Richards Stakes took place on almost unraceably heavy ground. And the giant mudlark POET (38) set a searching pace. So it's not surprising the entire field almost ground to a halt in the closing stages. They took 8.2 seconds longer to cover the last 3.25 furlongs than they did in the Classic Trial, and the Racing Post reported they covered the last quarter mile in an amazingly slow 34 seconds.

Poet got through the dreadful surface admirably well. He's a big strong horse with a huge stride. And when Colombian first challenged him from around two and a half furlongs out he rallied and beat him off. But his challenger was remarkably persistent and Poet has little in the way of acceleration, so he eventually succumbed.

Poet has the physique of a Grand National horse but seems best over 8-10 furlongs. He's run nothing but big races every time he's had soft or heavy ground over such distances in Britain and Ireland.(He doesn't seem suited to the sprint finishes that are the norm in France).

The winner COLOMBIAN (40) has some smart form, He got beat less than three lengths into fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club and he was only beaten three and a quarter lengths in the Prix Niel where Group 1 performers filled the first three places.

Colombian has in fact never finished out of the first four or been beaten more than three and three quarter lengths. The reason he's lost seven of his ten starts seems to be that he has almost as little acceleration as Poet. The form book comments 'not quicken' and 'one pace' appear frequently in his races.

It seems to me that Colombian needs something to take the edge off his rivals' acceleration. The heavy ground certainly did the trick here. But Sandown's steep uphill finish probably helped as well. This being so his entry in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot looks logical. The finish of that race is 13 yards higher than the start, the same as for the ten furlong course at Sandown.

However I reckon that tight turns are just as good for stopping Colombian's opponents accelerating away from him.

Colombian has run two times around tight tracks. The first time was when he beat the smart Tanfeeth two lengths in his maiden around Chester. The second time was when he hosed up in a French Listed race at Le Croise-Laroche - an even tighter track than Chester (it's not quite a mile around).

This being so I believe that German races offer good opportunities for Colombian since German tracks (barring Hoppegarten) are all tight.

The best German race of all for Colombian is surely the Grosser Dallmayr Preis in late July. It is too close to the German Derby and Oaks for the better three year olds to run. In addition it is run over ten furlongs in a country where most of the best middle distance horses want a mile and a half. Best of all it has been run on soft ground in seven of the last thirteen years.



IMPERIAL MONARCH LOOKS A LEGER PROSPECT

The Bet365 Classic Trial was a pig of a race to assess on the clock this year because Joseph O'Brien was the only jockey smart enough to take his mount IMPERIAL MONARCH (36) to the clearly much faster ground on the wide outside of the track.

To give you an idea of how much faster the ground was Imperial Monarch ran the last three and a quarter furlongs around 8.2 seconds faster than Colombian who raced on the other side of the course in the other 10f race.

The early pace in Colombian's race was much faster which complicates time comparisons further. But after playing around with the videos of all the flat races for a couple of hours to take the sectional times from several points I started to end up with the same Listed class rating of 36 for Imperial Monarch with all the most likely looking interpretations I could come up with.

Imperial Monarch kept on running remarkably strongly all the way up the straight considering the bottomless ground - rapidly regaining all the ground and more that he'd ceded by swinging wide. He got to the lead inside the last half furlong and was still full of run crossing the line in a rapidly widening lead of nearly two lengths.

Imperial Monarch is a big, tall, long striding, staying sort that shows knee action. He has only raced on soft and heavy ground to date and may very well need it that way.

Given his physique and stride pattern I don't think Imperial Monarch would like the steep gradients and tight turns at Epsom or the fast ground the Derby is normally run on. If he's going to improve enough to have a shot in Group 1 company my bet is it will be in the St Leger.

Runner up THOUGHT WORTHY (35) represented John Gosden who has won the Classic Trial six times from his seventeen runners. I can't rate him that highly. But he's a good looking horse who got the better of a sustained duel with the third placed horse and sustained his effort in the manner of a good class runner. We'll get a better idea of his ability in the Lingfield derby Trial.

Third placed ROUGEMONT (28) went well for a long way before tiring quickly in the last furlong. My feeling is that he'd have seen the race out better on fast ground. He'd put up a Group class performance at Newmarket on his previous start.

STIPULATE (3) clearly didn't stay in a race where the ground was so heavy the time was as slow as many mile and a half races.

TREMENDOUS OAKS TRIAL BY KISSED

KISSED (39) put up an amazing performance on the clock when winning the Listed Salsabil Stakes at Navan. Not only did she run a faster final time than the other three ten furlong winners on the card, she also came home a good deal faster. She covered the last three furlongs a second faster than Derby hopeful Athens who clocked a 2.7 seconds slower final time. She was also 1.5 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than the promising maiden winner Karatash and a monstrous 4.4 seconds faster than the winner of the admittedly very log class handicap.

I simply have to award Kissed the best speed rating I've given or am likely to give an Oaks candidate this season.

Kissed made all her own running at a decent clip and soon had her rivals in trouble when keeping up the gallop in the homestraight. She began to run right away from her rivals in the closing stages and scored by over eight lengths without jockey Joseph O'Brien doing any more than just push her along.

I concede there must be a question about whether Kissed can handle a faster surface than the soft ground she raced on at Navan. She does have a rather odd, slightly exaggerated stride pattern that shows knee action. Her her three parts brother and sister Pour Moi and Gagnoa also had similarly odd looking strides and that didn't stop them doing very well in Classics on fast ground. Besides Kissed is rather light framed so she doesn't hit the ground very hard.

The pace Kissed showed in the closing stages shows that, like Pour Moi and Gagnoa, she has a serious turn of foot. So I imagine the plan will be to switch to hold up tactics with Kissed when she meets bigger and better fields.

Again like her siblings, Kissed is nippy and athletic, so I think she's likely to handle the gradients of Epsom. I can easily see her scoring a remarkable second Classic success at Epsom for her dam following Pour Moi's Derby win last year.





SIR DES CHAMPS ERROR WAS NOT UNFORCED

Well what do you know, SIR DES CHAMPS (41) finally made a jumping error! And it was a spectacular one. He ploughed through the last and almost unseated jockey Day Russell on the way to a 36 length success in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown.

However I need to add that the error occurred in most unusual circumstances. Sir Des Champs made all the running but had so much in hand of his rivals that he was simply full of running in the closing stages. The result was that he was able to charge home from four out 6.2 seconds faster than Sizing Europe managed when winning the Champion Chase over a 1m 1f shorter distance in the other race over fences on the same card.

This sort of situation is not that uncommon in novice chases. The runners quite often go a bit too slow early and this causes them to fly through the closing stages at a pace which makes it hard to judge the fences correctly. I reckon this is the main reason novice chasers fall more often than experienced ones.

In fact Sir Des Champs still jumped much better than his rivals even at the last fence. He managed to clear the final obstacle whereas his two nearest pursuers both came down.

This run takes Sir Des Champs' record to eight wins out of eight over jumps. I've noted in the past that whatever the circumstances of a race he always seems to come there cruising in the closing stages to win without being extended. That was the case once more here.

Trainer Willie Mullins has noted in the past that Sir Des Champs has actually made the occasional jumping error but is so clever at fiddling a fence he makes them hard to see. If you watch the video of his win here carefully you can see what Mullins was talking about. Sir Des Champs got over all the jumps remarkably quickly up to the last, gaining ground at all of them. But he met a couple wrong, actually going through the top of one. It was simply the speed of his jumping and the fact that he was able to correct himself quickly in mid air before landing, rather like a cat, that disguised the errors.

Sir Des Champs earned a speed rating of 42 from me at Cheltenham and would have done so again here but for the last fence blunder. You rarely see a novice chaser run faster than this beyond two miles. Indeed I can't recall ever giving a novice chaser a bigger rating than 42 over two and a half miles plus. So it's a fascinating to speculate just how good he is.

One thing's for sure; with Denman retired, Kauto Star now older than any Grade 1 Chase winner, Long Run not producing his best all season and Synchronised sadly dead, the way is now clear for a new generation of chasers to take over at the top.

Last season's top novice chasers weren't good enough to displace the old stars. But this season we've seen truly top class performances from Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, Grands Crus, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs in novice chases. This group are surely going to dominate next season. And the stamina and versatility of Sir Des Champs makes him look the best prospect of them all.

From a betting perspective, I rather wonder if the bookies haven't made a mistake in pricing Sir Des Champs at 16-1 for next season's King George. He's favourite for the Gold Cup, so his big price for the King George suggests the bookies are assuming he'll stay at home and run in the Lexus like most of Ireland's top three mile chasers in the past.

What makes me think that Sir Des Champs may make the trip across the Irish Sea is that the King George is invariably run at a searching pace all the way. This makes it a great target for Sir Des Champs because one of his best assets is his ability to take a fence at speed.





LONGER TRIPS LOOK A SMART PLAN FOR SIZING EUROPE

When SIZING EUROPE (43) won the Arkle as a novice the early gallop was so fast the field tired dramatically in the closing stages. That sort of pace seems to suit the horse over two miles as he's won all three times he's encountered a lopsidedly fast early gallop since - those three wins being those he's scored this season.

Sizing Europe's latest win came in the Champion Chase at Punchestown where China Rock made the running at a pace too strong for the heavy ground.

In the closing stages everything was stopping and Sizing Europe wandered around in the slow motion finish to hold off the determined challenge of Realt Dubh.

Wins like this clearly demonstrate that Sizing Europe has a good deal more stamina than most top class two milers. Indeed he's finished second in the last two renewals of the JNWine.com Champion Chase over three miles at Down Royal.

I think Henry de Bromhead was right to suggest after the race that next season longer distances might be the right option for Sizing Europe. It is not uncommon for champion two mile chasers to want longer trips when they get older. Desert Orchid and Kauto Star are great examples of this.

The easy three miles of the King George looks a great option for Sizing Europe. But I would add that the top two and a half mile chasers, barring soft ground specialists Rubi Light and Joncol, have been a remarkably weak group this season according to my speed ratings. So there is also a good deal to be said for focusing Sizing Europe's next campaign around the four big two and a half mile chases - the John Durkan Memorial, the Ascot Chase, the Ryanair and the Melling Chase.

In this regard it is interesting to note that three of those big two and a half mile chase are run in Britain.

Sizing Europe might well have won all four times he's run over fences in Britain but for having to swerve so violently to avoid the omitted last fence at this year's Cheltenham Festival. All those UK runs were in Grade 1's. The Punchestown Champion Chase was Sizing Europe's first Grade 1 chase win in five tries over Irish fences. So it does seem the, despite his bomb proof jumping (he's never fallen seventeen chases) he may be slightly better suited to the easier fences in Britain.

REALT DUBH (42) ran right up to his best to mount a sustained challenge to the winner while pulling well clear of the rest.

Clearly two miles is too short over fences for Realt Dubh on good ground. He's lost all four times he's run in such conditions. However his chasing record over two miles on yielding or softer ground or over two and a half miles on any surface is tremendous. He has won five times out of seven in these circumstances and run a good second to seriously fast winners in Grade 1's in his two losses.

Third placed BIG ZEB (34) went well for a long way. But, unlike the first two, he's a proper two miler and the searching early pace and heavy ground made this ride like a two and a half mile contest. So he tired in the closing stages.

It is easy to argue that Big Zeb has deteriorated. After all he's been beaten fifteen lengths or more three times in a row and is now eleven years old.

However it is important to note that Big Zeb's record suggests he needs breaks of at least 42 days between his starts to produce his best - and he's returned more quickly for his three recent losses.

In fact since his novice days Big Zeb has won nine of the ten times he's contested a chase off a break of 42 days or more but lost the eight times he's returned to the races more quickly over fences.

This being so, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Big Zeb bounced back to win on his seasonal debut next season.

Fourth placed CHINA ROCK (31) also looked rather suspect on the face of it as he'd failed to reach the first three since 2010. But he had a delayed start to this season and didn't exactly have things in his favour. His comeback run was over hurdles, and most chasers take a run or two to adapt back to the smaller jumps. He ran well but probably still needed his next start and then failed to last the extended three and a quarter miles in the Gold Cup.

This time around China Rock set too fast a pace for the heavy going. In addition the trip of two miles was short of his best. So he actually did pretty well in the circumstances. His subsequent win in the Punchestown Gold Cup a few days later suggests this run actually brought him on. Indeed he's now won four of the last six times he's come into a race off a break of 25 days or less and ran a very good third to Kauto Star and Sizing Europe in one of his losses. It looks like he's actually best off a quick turnaround.

GAUVAIN (-1) is a smart horse that has proved almost unstoppable in small fields below Grade 1 class. But he does seem to lack the class needed to win at the top level.

Here he finished last by 88 lengths

Gauvain has now lost all eleven times he's run in Grade 1 company and run well below his best on ten of those occasions. He's won eight of the last nine times he's run in fields of eight or less in Grade 2 or lower class. His one loss came over the very stiff fences at Aintree, which are probably too much for him due to his lack of size.





LUCKY WILLIAM TOUGH TO BEAT IN SPRING AND AUTUMN

LUCKY WILLIAM (40) was always prominent and kept going really strongly to win the Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase over two miles at Punchestown in swamp-like conditions. He was still shaking his head about and wanting to run after being pulled up crossing the line. So I'd be pretty confident about him being fully effective over half a mile further

It now seems rather clear that, like quite a few good horses, Lucky William is at his best in the warmer months - April to October. He lost a couple of bumpers on his first two starts in May. But since then he might well have won all seven times he's run between April and October but for slipping up when moving well at the Punchestown Festival in 2010.

My impression was that Lucky William could have pulled out a bit more if it had been required. And he jumped like an old hand. So I think he'll be able to make a successful transition to chases involving more experienced horses next season.

The obvious targets for Lucky William next season look to be the Champion Chase at Gowran Park and the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October and Aintree's Melling Chase followed by Punchestown's Champion Chase in April. However, if could stretch his stamina to 2m 6f there are a whole bunch of valuable chases open to him in France during the Summer and Autumn. And of course there is the extremely valuable Galway Plate.

Runner up BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN (39) is rather a quirky horse. He's weighed anchor in front when seeing too much daylight in small fields several times. And he just doesn't seem to get home up the hill at Cheltenham. But he's won five of the last six times he's run in fields of nine or more outside Cheltenham and finished a close second to Grade 1 winner Voler La Vedette in his only loss.

Blackstairmountain has now won in Grade 1 company over both hurdles and fences but looked to be in trouble here with just six rivals lining up. However he went close to winning thanks to a very clever ride from Ruby Walsh.

Walsh managed to find cover for Blackstairmountain all the way through the race, even when creeping slowly forward to mount an ultra late challenge approaching the last. Unfortunately while Walsh still had him tucked in behind the winner, delaying his challenge till the last possible second, he took a bump from Menorah that knocked him off course and caused him to see daylight too early.

Blackstairmountain still surged forwards on the short run in. But the bump forced him to make his effort prematurely. In addition it turned out that Lucky William had plenty left when Blackstairmountain got to him.

Next season Blackstairmountain should be a good proposition to win more big races as long as enough opponents line up.

It was extraordinary to see the RSA Chase runner up and Gold Cup prospect FIRST LIEUTENANT (36) cut back all the way to two miles. In the circumstances he did well to keep tabs on the leaders and finish within eight lengths in third.

No doubt the heavy ground helped improve his performance over the inadequate trip by making it more of a stamina test. But I'm now wondering whether First Lieutenant might actually be best at trips short of three miles. After all, if you toss out his two runs at Fairyhouse where he banged his nose and finished lame he's won five of the other seven times he's run 2m 2f to 2m 5f, with one of his losses being by a short head in a race where he was put off by the leader falling right in front of him.

Fourth placed MENORAH (34) is not really big enough to be jumping Punchestown's stiff fences out of very heavy ground. But the way he jumped here and over Aintree's tough jumps last time has removed any doubts I had about him being suited to chasing. The only question I have is just how big a field he can handle over the bigger jumps





SNAP TIE TOUGH TO BEAT WHEN FRESH

Philip Hobbs has an amazing record at the Punchestown Festival. He's won 11 times from 37 runners at a meeting which features enormous fields.

His latest success was a tremendous training performance with SNAP TIE (38) off a two and a half year break in a valuable two mile handicap hurdle. The horse had succumbed to suspensory ligament problems not once but twice during his absence.

Snap Tie has a truly weird record. He has now won all five times he's come into a race off a break of six months or more and lost all ten times he's returned to the races more quickly.

Snap Tie ran third in the Supreme Novices off a twelve week break and three quarters of a length second in the Christmas Hurdle off a ten week break in 2008. So clearly he can produce his best off slightly quicker turnarounds. He obviously retains most if not all of his old ability.......
 
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