The thoughts of the handicappers.

davidjohnson said:
I can tell you why but I can't defend it. He's added the 7 lb his jockey couldn't claim back on. Why they chose not to do the same with Long Run's Gold Cup rating is a question worth asking.
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Which is my point! It's so poor it's beyond belief.

Brampour for the Champion Hurdle!
 
Can the handicappers please tell me how you've managed to lump a 71 rating on Sky High Diver for Alan Swinbank

This horse won a Maiden on the flat in bottomless ground at the greyhound track Newcastle beating 46 rated horse back in 3rd by 2.5l.

This horse was entered in a Class 6 a month later worth £1,700 and beat 48 rated Spahi back in 2nd by 1.25l and 47 rated Marina Ballerina in 3rd by 1.75l.

This horse was put up 6lbs, she was then entered in a Class 6 at Southwell again worth £2,000 and beat the same horse Marina Ballerina rated 46 by 0.75l.

This horse was put up another 6lbs for her win, she was then entered again at Southwell in a Class 5, now rated 65 she's beat a 67 rated horse in 2nd by 1 length.

You've put her up 6lbs.

Please tell me how you've managed to raise this horse nearly 2 stone in 3 months, I feel sorry for the trainer & owners who'll have to wait another 2 or 3 years before this filly is back down to her correct rating unless she can go over the timber.

She's probably the most improved horse in training by your standards?
 
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Putting aside the fact that Swinbank himself has chosen to run her under penalties rather than wait for a reassessed mark, don't you think the fact that she's won 3 from 3 in handicaps rather undermines your point. And I'mn rarely one to come to the defence of BHA assessors, but there are plenty better sticks to beat them with than the handicappong of Sky High Diver.

The revised International ratings for a start. Why on earth you would take a view, and then completely revise it based on a horse failing to give it's running in bizarre. Is Brampour's rating coming down to 162 an admission that it was wrong to arbitrarily add on the riders claim, or has the form of the International been pulled down 5lb, or as it actually been put up 2 lb and the riders claim has no been disregarded.
 
Star shines bright in tight Ladbroke finish
Saturday's Ladbroke Hurdle saw a pulsating finish go the way of the Alan King-trained Raya Star, writes Dave Dickinson. With less than twenty lengths covering the entire field at the finish it is tempting to claim a triumph for the handicapper, but that's not the whole story by any means.

One thing guaranteed to wind a handicapper up is the course commentator claiming that a finish is bunched due to a slow pace. This isn't always true - it never seems to occur to commentators that there is a possibility that the horses are closely matched at the weights. However, I have to concur with Richard Hoiles on this occasion as this competitive handicap started in earnest only from four out.

Credit goes to the winning jockey for making his move in time, as most of the hold-up horses found it difficult trying to pick up rivals who were themselves quickening - if you fancied a hold-up horse for the race and they let you down, don't give up on them.

Such a tight finish generally helps the handicapper and, by using Act of Kalanisi and Sailors Warn as my benchmarks, Raya Star goes up 6lb to 140 for this victory.

Now to Brampour. I used to rather like Humble Pie (especially when the late, great Steve Marriott took lead vocals) but it is a bit harder to take these days. Granted, the Ladbroke wasn't run to suit a horse like Brampour - whose strength is his stamina, nor did he like the ground in the opinion of both his rider and trainer. Nevertheless, leaving him going up 9lb would clearly be unfair as the winner Raya Star is only going up 6lb. Handicapping must always be about fairness but what seemed fair a week ago to a horse and jockey combination unbeaten in valuable handicaps hardly looks fair now. So Brampour is dropped to 162.

To those on the forums who questioned my sanity last week, maybe the closeness of the finish was a slight vindication of my handicapping in general, but had they witnessed my sole break from handicapping at the weekend (to watch the Villa on Sky for the fourth time in a month - all four games finished Aston Villa nil and Idon't remember the opposition keeper being seriously troubled) they might have felt they had a point!

BACK IN BLACK

What a difference three days make, writes Martin Greenwood. Last Tuesday Irish raider Black Mac, a well-backed 6-4-favourite in an ordinary six-runner handicap at Folkestone, only managed to finish six lengths second to Promised Wings, having raced keenly and made the running. Other than his propensity to pull there seemed little other excuse for his failure to land the mini gamble. Fast forward to Uttoxeter on Friday and the very same Black Mac lined up in a more competitive thirteen-runner affair, sent off the 9-2 third favourite on this occasion.

From the off it was obvious that his jockey was intent in using vastly different tactics this time around, and Black Mac settled comfortably at the rear of the field. Travelling like the winner from a long way out, Black Mac sluiced through the field and was still on the bridle when taking up the running two out. Coasting clear thereafter, Black Mac crossed the line twenty-three lengths clear of the remainder without his rider having to resort to any sort of pressure.

Black Mac, who raced off 93 at both Folkestone and Uttoxeter,will be significantly higher if and when he is entered in the UK again - a minimum mark of 115 can be fully justified as things stand at present.

JOB DUN

The Flat turf season in Britain is well and truly over, but top-class racing can be found somewhere in the world pretty much all year round, writes Stephen Hindle. Over in Hong Kong last week it was the annual end-of-season shindig, and I'm not just talking about the meeting of the world's top handicappers!

Having assessed the Melbourne Cup with the view that the form was very solid, it was nice to see the first two from that race finish first and thirdin the Hong Kong Vase.

The globetrotting Dunaden has had a terrific 2011, winning a Group 3 in April in his native France, and then going on to stamp himself one of the best middle distance-stayers around with victory in the Geelong and Melbourne Cups prior to this successful foray to Hong Kong. He represents a solid 118.

A length and a half back in third in the Vase was Red Cadeaux, who followed up his fine second at Flemington with another excellent placed effort. His season started on the all-weather in early-April, when he was rated 99, but a long, progressive campaign has seen that mark climbto 115. His initial handicap mark, in 2009, was just 72. Yet to win above Group 3 level, he can surely put that right in 2012.

Of the other British raiders in the Vase, Campanologist ran a decent race in fifth, though not for the first time he flattered to deceive. Jakkalberry and Redwood were a bit disappointing relative to their best form.

Only Ransom Note ran for Britain in the Hong Kong Cup and he failed make any impact behind California Memory, who was known as Portus Blendium when trained in France. A figure of 120 was agreed for the winner, which means Cirrus des Aigles, though first home of the Europeans, was a somewhat disappointing fifth, having been assessed at 128 following his victory in the Champion Stakes. The lack of pace seemed to count against him, however, so he's probably worth forgiving the effort.

TAT-TA

Fairy tale endings are usually the stuff of fiction, but at Wolverhampton last Monday the admirable veteran sprinter The Tatling produced one of his own on his final racecourse start, writes Stewart Copeland.

In typical trademark style, he came with a thrilling late run to snatch victory with his final stride - a fitting end to a wonderful career.

He was notching up his eighteenth win in a 176-race career, which began back in May 1999; the undoubted highlight of them being his success in the Group 2 King's Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2004. He was unfortunate not to add a Group 1 success to his tally, runner-up in three successive Nunthorpes at York from 2003 to 2005, as well as finishing second in the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp in 2004.

A career high rating of 115 shows what a talented horse he was in his prime, but it was his toughness and enthusiasm for the racing game which made him such a favourite with so many racing fans these past dozen years, myself included. Let's hope The Tatling has the long and happy retirement he so richly deserves.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Fingal Bay kept his unbeaten record intact but probably didn't enhance his already lofty reputation when beating Ballyrock by a hard-fought length in the five-runner Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Going into the Grade 2 event on a figure of 149 after impressing at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Sandown, Fingal Bay looked to have a straightforward task at Newbury against four oppenents who, though all winners last time out, had been contesting bog-standard novice races.

Fingal Bay never looked likely to lose his 100 per cent record but he had to be kept up to his work all the way to the line to see off the persistent Ballyrock, though in fairness Fingal Bay was almost certainly idling in front.

Another novice who is rated in the high 140s is the Irish-trained Sea Of Thunder, who was pulling away in style when falling at the last at Cheltenham's mid-December meeting.

Since then the ‘winner' Deireadh Re and the runner-up Rev It Up have both been successful in handicap company and I have raised the original level of form by 5lb, meaning that Sea of Thunder would be a minimum of 144 on the assumption he would have won by only the seven-length margin he was clear at the time, though he was still travelling strongly and a rating closer to Fingal Bay's would seem more appropriate.

I BET YOU DIDN'T KNOW THIS...

Here are a couple of bits of trivia to start 2012, writes Dave Dickinson.

When was Celestial Halo last beaten in a handicap? The answer is at York in August of his three-year-old career prior to finishing seventh in that year's St Leger.

Partlyas a consequence of being three wins from three starts in handicap hurdles after his game success in Saturday's Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Newbury comes a second piece of trivia. What was the last horse to give Celestial Halo weight and beat him over hurdles? Well, unless you count Sentry Duty at Doncaster in February 2008, when Celestial Halo was effectively conceding 7lb factoring in the 10lb weight-for-age allowance,nothing ever has.

Twice in the frame in Champion Hurdles, Celestial Halo has often seemed below the very best at level weights, but these handicap wins off 165 in 2009 (he beat Binocular into third when runner-up in the Champion Hurdle earlier that year), and twice off 160 this season are a testament to his continuing class and enthusiasm.

I have used Ubi Ace as my benchmark for his latest victory and put Celestial Halo back up to his highest winning mark of 165, both placed horses running cracking trials for February's Totesport Trophy. The runner-up, Torphichen, who was returning to hurdling for the first time in close to two years, is ideally suited by such testing ground. Third-home Ubi Ace really caught the eye with some immaculate hurdling and it is entirely possible that this lightly-raced hurdler would be better suited by a slightly less testing surface.

Entries for the Totesport are next week and just maybe the first three on Saturday will lock horns at the Berkshire course again.

HENDERSON CHASERS SHOWING SPRINTING SPEED!

The Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on December 27 was a thrilling race to watch, and despite the eventful nature of the race the right horse won, writes Mark Olley.

The pace was very steady and coming to four out Oiseau de Nuit was leading, but the 'big two', Finian's Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, were travelling ominously well just behind. The complexion of the race changed at this point as both made serious blunders. Wishfull Thinking was the first to recover and a big jump at thelast looked to have the race won for Philip Hobbs' charge, but Finian's Rainbow, who had been given plenty of time to recover by Barry Geraghty, swept by on the outside to win a shade cosily.

The race was fairly straightforward from a handicapping point of view as the third and fourth, Oiseau de Nuit (152) and Takeroc (145), had five lengths between them and with the formerconceding 2lb they finished exactly as the pre-race figures suggested. The steady pace and jumping errors prevented the front two from pulling as far clear from this duo as I would have expected and as a consequence I have left Finian's Rainbow on his pre-race figure of 157.

It was lovely to see Wishfull Thinking return to form after a couple of below-par efforts this term. However, I still had him running 8lb below last season's peak and have dropped him 2lb to a new mark of 162.

Finian's Rainbow reportedly needed this reappearance and Captain Chris, in last season's Arkle, is still the only horse to have finished in front of Nicky Henderson's top-class chaser since he switched to fences. I willbe amazed if we have seen the best of Finian's Rainbow yet and I expect him to be capable of higher ratings when he tackles the best 2m chasers in stronger-run races.

On the same Kempton card was the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices' Chase and this was basically a match between last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross and exciting chase recruit Sprinter Sacre. A blunder at the first from Peddlers Cross handed the early advantage to Sprinter Sacre and Donald McCain's gelding was always on the back foot from that point. Several great leaps from Sprinter Sacre heaped on the pressure and Nicky Henderson's six-year-old ran out a clear cut and hugely impressive winner.

One hundred and sixty is the best figure that Peddlers Cross has achieved in his three chases to date and means his first published chase rating is 10lb lower than his current hurdle mark of 170. It is very hard to put an accurate figure on what Sprinter Sacre has achieved over fences so far, with two wide-margin wins, so at this stage he has a figure of 161. He will be kept to novice company for his next run over fences (he needs to have run three times over fences to be eligible to run in a class 2 or above handicap chase) and hopefully we can pin down a more accurate figure then.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Rankings reveal much to look forward to in 2012
IT MAY seem strange for a January blog to concentrate mainly on Flat racing, but this week sees the unveiling of the World Thoroughbred Rankings for the 2011 season and both Phil Smith and Matthew Tester take the opportunity to put some of the headline figures into context.

Elsewhere there's an above-average performance on the all-weather that is discussed, along with a mini-round-up from the jumps sphere.

FRANKEL MY DEAR...

The 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings (WTR) were announced on Tuesday at a press conference at BHA headquarters in London, writes Phil Smith.

They showed the outstanding quality of the horses that were trained in Britain last summer. For the first time since 1994, six of the top ten horses in the world were trained in Britain.

This time it is Frankel 136, Canford Cliffs 127, Rewilding 127, Dream Ahead 126, Excelebration 126 and Nathaniel 126. Seventeen years ago it was Distant View 128, Maroof 128, Barathea 127, Erhaab 126, King's Theatre 126 and Lochsong 126.

When the current WTR is added to its forerunner, the International Classifications which began in 1977, Frankel becomes the highest rated horse since 1997 when Peintre Celebre received 137 for his scintillating victory in that year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He is also the second-highest miler everbehind El Gran Senor (138) in 1984 and the joint eighth highest-rated horse at any distance since 1977 together with Sea The Stars.

Black Caviar (132) is the highest sprinter since Dayjur received 133 in 1990 and the joint second-highest female ever together with Miesque, Pebbles and All Along, with only Three Troikas (137) higher in 1979.

Imagine a match over 7f between BlackCaviar and Frankel - who would be the winner? I suspect home advantage could be crucial as in Britain the mare would receive a 3lb sex allowance whereas in Australia she would get 2kg.

HARD TO SPLIT THE JUVENILES

A year ago we had joint two-year-old champions at 126 in Frankel and Dream Ahead, writes Matthew Tester.

Both of them were well above the usual level needed to be a champion. And what an amazing year each of them had as three-year-olds much to our joy. The successes of Dream Ahead gave me great personal pleasure and Frankel all year was awesome in the best meaning of that word.

This time we have joint champions at 119 with Dabirsim and Camelot. This is the lowest level for champion two-year-old in the modern era - from 1985 onwards during which the composition of the Classifications committee has remained unchanged. From that year onwards the ratings have been agreed by representatives of Great Britain, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany.

Unlike a year before, there were no real standout performances by the juveniles. For much of the year I thought that Harbour Watchwould be the champion. After three runs he had already reached a rating of 117 but his leg injury stopped him from turning up for the big races. Camelot made a huge impression winning the Racing Post Trophy but he beat a small field of fairly unexposed horses. Dabirsim won two Group 1s in France but was never up against an exceptional opponent.

Does this mean we are in for a dull 2012 with the three-year-olds? Not at all. The lowest previous champion in my fifteen years with the two-year-olds was Bago and he went on to win three Group 1s the next year including the Arc. Dr Devious was the lowest rated Dewhurst winner of the previous twenty years and he went on to win the Derby.

Camelot, especially, looks a wonderful prospect for 2012, and if he does not step up to the mark then we are in for an exciting time unearthing dark horses who will. Bring it on.

THE HUNDRED CLUB

Three-figure ratings have been a rarity on the all-weather sprint scene this winter, so Oasis Dancer's success in the feature 6f handicap at Lingfield on Saturday made a pleasant change, writes Stewart Copeland.

Trained by Ralph Beckett, the five-year-old was made favourite on the strength of his success over the same trip in a conditions race at Wolverhampton last month, earning a rating of 98 that day. He clearly showed that revised mark was far from beyond him, running out a decisive two-length winner from Fratellino, with recent course and distance winner Capone, a narrow third.

Rated as high as 106 duringthe summer of 2010, his win at Lingfield represented a return to that level of form and Oasis Dancer is well worth another chance in Listed company with the 6f Listed Cleves Stakes at Lingfield in late February an obvious opportunity in that grade.

JUMPS ROUND-UP

The best quality middle distance hurdle race of the last week was the 2m4f mares Listed hurdle at Sandown on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

The race was run at an honest enough pace to believe that the form might have some substance and the finish was fought out by the two best fancied runners.

Kells Belle (pre-race rating of 125) beat Kaffie (pre-race rating of 132) by a length and three quarters and, having met here at level weights, the obvious starting point would be to rate the winner 134 meaning that the runner-up would get 2lb for a near-two-length beating should they meet in a handicap next time out. I was reluctant to do this on two counts.

Firstly Kells Belle has beenconsistent in handicaps this season off marks in the mid-120s so it might be a bit fanciful to suddenly assume that she has improved by as much as 9lb. Secondly the runner-up was given a very positive ride and, having been sent to the front at halfway, she was still travelling better than the winner on the run to two out before being reeled in late. It is fair to assume that in winning this race Kells Belle has produced a career best so some rise is inevitable and I have decided to rate her 132 - the same as the runner-up.

A mention too for Star Of Angels, who won a competitive 0-135 handicap hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday off a mark of 128. This horse had run fourth in the Coral Cup at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival but then had two years away from the track. He showed little on his return to action at Sandown last month but his effort on Saturday confirmed that much if not all of his former ability remained.

Two lightly raced novices with solid form (both on their handicap debuts) filled third and fourth positions so this form has some substance to it. The winner will go up 8lb to a mark of 136. Given that his fourth at the festival came from a mark of 137 then he has definite potential from his revised rating.

Star Of Angels is trained by David Pipe so what chance we see him at the festival in March perhaps in the Martin Pipe Handicap hurdle over 2m4f for horses rated 0-145?

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Grey, surely the art of learning to do anything is to be able to relax in confidence, knowing that while doing it with less effort, you're still seeing off the opposition? That applies to pretty much any effort in life. I can't see any particular worthiness in expending more effort to effect the same result - win.
 
Opposition the key if Frankel is to beat 136
This week's blog chiefly pays homage to the year of Frankel in the wake of the recent publication of the World Thoroughbred Rankings. Dominic Gardiner-Hill not only explains the reasoning behind his rating but also looks forward to 2012 and assesses his prospects for improving on that level. There were also a couple of potentially significant performances in the novice hurdle ranks in the last seven days, and our national hunt handicappersrun the rule over what impact those up-and-comers could have in some of the big races still to come.


FRANKEL'S SEASON

Having spent the last three months of the 2011 season playing the "party pooper" and telling the world and his wife that Frankel could not be raised from his post Sussex Stakes mark of 135, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, the publication of the 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings saw him predictably confirmed as the world's best racehorse but with a mark of . . . 136!

One of the advantages of having a month between the end of theseason and the start of the rankings conference in Hong Kong is that it gives the handicappers a chance to review the season as a whole, pull a few things apart and put them back together again.

Having reviewed Frankel's season, particularly his victories in the Sussex Stakes and the QEII, and considered the treatment the rankings committee had given to other "superstars" such as Sea The Stars and Zenyatta, I submitted a figure of 136 for discussion and it went throughunopposed.

Given that both he and Sea The Stars showed very similar levels of form I felt it appropriate that he should be credited with the same mark as the Irish colt. I don't believe there is anybody in the world that can say with any certainty which is the better of the two and if I was framing a handicap involving the pair of them I certainly would not want either one of them to be conceding weight to the other!

Having opened his season with 120-performance in defeating Excelebration (whose only three defeats of the season came to the hands of Frankel) in the Greenham at Newbury, Henry Cecil's colt elevated himself into the 'superstar' bracket with his devastating 2,000 Guineas display at Newmarket.

Visually it was probably the most stunning performance I have seen but the race wasn't easy to rate with runner-up Dubawi Gold going into it rated 101 and third-placed Native Khan going in on 111. By hook or by crook, using ten-year averages for the race, I came up with figures of 130-117-116 for the first three home - figures that would stay with the second and third all year and be their final rankings mark.

On to Royal Ascot and I suspect I wasn'tthe only person who felt somewhat deflated after the St James's Palace. Yes, he won the race but those that had come to witness another demolition job were left disappointed. Plenty of column inches were taken up on the ride he received that day and Idon't intend on adding to them here but suffice to say Frankel was way off his best in taking the race with a performance of 120, with neither runner-up Zoffany (118) or fourth placed Neebras (115) doing anything to advertise the form subsequently.

It is an interesting aside that Frankel's Guineas performance was the best since Zafonic in 1993 and he went on to put up the best ever performances seen in both the Sussex and the QEII, but his St James's Palace effort was the second lowest winning performance in the race in the last ten years with only Azamour's 118 in 2004 being rated lower.

The clash that everybody wanted to see - Frankel vs Canford Cliffs - materialised in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and Frankel stamped himself the best horse on the planet with a stunning five-length success. Using third placed Rio de la Plata as a guide to the level of the race my figures were 136-123-118-113, suggesting that the hanging Canford Cliffs had not performed to his best of 127 in chasing home his younger rival. Subsequent news that he had been retired due to injury helped explain the performance although nobody can doubt that the best horse prevailed.

There is always a worry when giving horses stellar marks that if they fail to reproduce them people will start questioning their previous form - there was no such need to worry with Frankel. Another barnstorming display in the QEII - when he once again beat old rival Excelebration by four lengths and increased his superiority over 2,000 Guineas runner-up Dubawi Gold from six lengths to seven and three-quarter lengths - confirmed his standing at the top of the pile, my figures for the race being 136-125-115-117.

So whatdoes 2012 hold for Frankel and how high can he go? It would appear a seasonal debut in the Lockinge at Newbury is on the cards followed by a probable step up to 1m2f. As far as his rating is concerned, a lot of it will depend on the quality of opposition around and how far he can beat them.

Remember at 136 he is already entitled to beat the world's top 1m2f performer Cirrus Des Aigles (128) by five lengths and So You Think (126) by six lengths so he will have to put up a mightyperformance to increase his mark further. That is some thought to keep us warm during the winter months!

COTTON PICKING

Warwick's Grade 2 Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices' Hurdle over 2m5f, while usually lacking strength in depth, always has a couple of exciting prospects and the latest edition was no exception, writes Martin Greenwood.

Prior to the race our ratings suggested it was a straight fight between Cotton Mill (rated 139) and Highland Lodge (rated 140), both of whom were two wins from two over hurdles. With Highland Lodge going off at a shade of odds-on, it was perhaps surprising that Cotton Mill was as big as 11-2, with another unexposed sort Ambion Wood (rated 129 going in) the second favourite.

In the event all three of the aforementioned had pulled clear with Same Difference leaving the back straight, but Highland Lodge was the first beaten and dropped out tamely from the second last leaving the impression that something wasn't quite right. Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood fought out a good finish thereafter and only half a length separated the pair at the line, with Cotton Mill holding on bravely.

These races are never easy to be sure about with so many unexposed sorts in the field and for the minute I have rated the race around the standards that cover the contest in the last five years. I have Cotton Mill slightly below his pre-race figure but he will remain on 139. Ambion Wood has been raised 6lb to 135 and Highland Lodge is now 139, the same as Cotton Mill with the hope he fulfils the promise he showed on his first two starts. Obviously only subsequent events will tell me whether I am too high or low, and I will adjust as necessary over the coming weeks.

THE PUNTERS' DARLAN?

Following the Nicky Henderson-trained Darlan's easy fourth success from as many career starts in a novice hurdle at Taunton last week it was hardly a surprise he moved up the betting for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, writes Graeme Smith.

I was rather taken aback by his promotion to second-favourite for the valuable Betfair Hurdle - formerly the Totesport Trophy - at Newbury in February, however, with his chance in that race dependant entirely on a handicap mark that had yet to be released.

There was a reasonably wide range of possibilities for assessing that Taunton novice hurdle. Darlan won by half a length but it's very subjective how much extra he was value for having never left the bridle and anyone who snapped up a price for the Newbury race was taking something of a leap of faith on how I'd view things.

As it happened, I seemingly took a higher view of the form than Darlan's rider Barry Geraghty, who pointed out the runner-up Jump City could be disappointing and others further back needed the run.

Jump City had disappointed at 2m4f on his last two starts but his previous form around 2m has proved solid around a figure of 138 (I raised his rating 2lb back to that level) and I took the view Darlan was value for a winning margin in the region of eight lengths, raising his rating from 137 to 146.

I think he could still be a contender for the Betfair Hurdle if standing up to the rough and tumble of markedly more competitive company but surely anyone who's already backed him would have been better off keeping their powder dry until they could make an informed decision.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Very interesting. They seem to be saying that they chanced their arm slightly by submitting a 136 to the ratings committee, the same mark as Sea The Stars, and that they did it because they "felt it appropriate that he should be credited with the same mark as the Irish colt". Which all sounds quite political to me.
 
Sounds like a joke to me. They rated him 135, so why not at least have the courage of their conviction and stick with that? If they'd suggested 137, would it have gone through just as easily? 138? 139?

And all this Sea The Stars stuff is nonsense. Frankel is (so far) an out and out miler, Sea The Stars was a middle-distance champion (yes, he won the Guineas on the way, but he was a 10-12f animal). There's really not that much comparison between them, other than they're both exceptionally good. It all seems to be based on subjective gut-feeling, which is unacceptable for an "official" handicapper.
 
Al Ferof's Ascot experience will be key in the Arkle.

The emphasis returns to jumping in this week's blog and it was good quality racing at that. Somersby finally enjoyed his day in the sun at Ascot on Saturday and John de Moraville gives his thoughts on what Henrietta Knight's stable star actually proved in doing so. Other valuable contests are also covered, namely the mares' Grade 2 at the Berkshire venue and Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase.

SOMERSBY SHINES

With no Master Minded to spoil the party, Somersby gained the Grade 1 triumph he so richly deserved in Saturday's Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot, writes John de Moraville.

Foiled heart-breakingly by a whisker by the sidelined ex-champion in the same race a year ago, Somersby - top-rated on official figures this time - ran to his mark of 166 to propel trainer Henrietta Knight back into the big time.

Finian's Rainbow, whose only previous chase defeat came in last season's Arkle, was an honourable second and posted a career-best 164 while third-placed Al Ferof (160) advertised his claims for this year's 2m novice title.

Somersby's Cheltenham target is expected to be the Ryanair Chase, which looks the right call as the extended trip will suit and he was found wanting in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last spring when fifth behind Sizing Europe (177), who is favourite to complete a famous double in March.

Saturday's defeat leaves Finian's Rainbow, who looked sure to win jumping the second-last, with a bit to find in the Champion Chase but the experience gained by the novice Al Ferof should be a significant asset against the likes of Sprinter Sacre (161) and Peddlers Cross (also 160) in what promises to be a vintage Arkle.

Cheltenham's uphill finish will help him as well, as was the case when stamina won him the day in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

ACCORDING TO STEPHEN

It's been a while since I had to do any national hunt handicapping, writes Stephen Hindle, but I've been drafted in as Phil Smith has swanned off on holiday!

One good thing about that happening at this time of year is the chance to assess some better races and Saturday was no exception with the latest renewal of the Grade 2Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock.

It looked competitive beforehand, with four last-time-out winners in the line-up and the majority of the eleven-strong field going into the race in the good form.

In the end the race boiled down to three, namely recent winners According To Pete and Consigliere and last-time-out faller Pearlysteps. According To Pete was 8lb out of the handicap when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas and he proved that was no fluke in fine style here, looking value for slightly more than the three-and-a-half lengths he prevailed by from Pearlysteps.

Considering the first three were twenty-three lengths clear of the fourth in a competitive-looking race I felt they all deserved a rise.

Consigliere has been as high as 148 in the past, a mark he achieved when finishing third in the 2010 Grand Annual but the winner of that race, Pigeon Island, has failed to progress and I felt more comfortable putting Consigliere up by 2lb to 147.

That meant a 3lb rise for Pearlysteps, who was three-quarters of a length in front of Consigliere, to 143. According To Pete, who clearly relishes testingground, is now up to a career-high mark of 149 (raised 7lb).

None of the others ran to form, though Mon Mome can be forgiven a seemingly well below-par effort as he wasn't that far behind when his rider called it a day. The 2009 Grand National winner presumably has that event on his agenda again this year.

DAVIS CUP

There was very little to choose between the majority of the runners in the Warfield Mares' Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday and, partly due to the steady pace, there was little to choose between them at the finish either, writes Martin Greenwood.

On my adjusted ratings, there was only a couple of pounds between Irish challenger Our Girl Salley (who gave 5lb to the rest of the field), Violin Davis,Kentford Grey Lady and Cloudy Spirit - the last-named trio renewing rivalries having all run in a Kempton handicap the time before. On that occasion, Kentford Grey Lady ran out a convincing winner receiving upwards of 10lb from the other two.

It was always going to be much harder for the grey racing off level weights at Ascot, though she was still sent off the preferred mare in the market. In the event, however, she couldn't quite peg back Violin Davis after the race turned into something of a sprint and she went down narrowly by half a length. The slightly eased down Our Girl Salley was just over two lengths back in third, with the rest of the field not much further behind.

There was little shuffling of the ratings needed afterwards - the winner is now 135 (matching the four-year standards forthe contest) from 133, the runner-up 134 from 133 and Our Girl Salley remaining on 139 for now. Incidentally, Love of Tara, who finished last, appeared to run 4lb above her pre-race rating of 122 but I have ignored the run and assumed she was flattered, a decision that helps prove the BHA handicappers don't always follow the robotic stance we are often accused of!

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Argento victory a high point for Midnight Chase.


Last weekend saw the last of Cheltenham's pre-festival fixtures in the shape of trials day. It was chiefly Midnight Chase and Big Buck's who hogged the majority of the limelight but they weren't the only noteworthy performers so far as the festival goes and our NH team do their best to cover all angles.

There was big-race action at Doncaster too and we could be hearing more of the first two from the Sky Bet Chase in the run up to the Grand National.

MIDNIGHT HOUR

Some incredibly competitive and interesting chases fell under my workload on Saturday, with no fewer than three of them taking place at Cheltenham, writes Stephen Hindle.

The best performance, though not by as much as you may think, came courtesy of Midnight Chase, who continued his love affair with the course by taking the Grade 2 Argento Chase, gamely holding off Tidal Bay by two and three-quarter lengths.

It was Midnight Chase's fifth win at the trackfrom just eight starts and the only time he's finished out of the first three there was when a creditable fifth in last year's Gold Cup.

He came into this contest on the back of a third in the Rowland Meyrick, which has already been advertised by the follow-up success of According To Pete. That said, this effort not only represented a step up on that form, but Midnight Chase appears to have at least matched anything he's done in the past.

He went in to the race on a mark of 158 and given he was conceding 6lb to Tidal Bay, who has shown himself capable of form in the mid-160s in the past, I could have underestimated this effort even by putting Midnight Chase back up to his best rating of 163. The reason I didn't go higher was due to the proximity of Knockara Beau in third, who will be going up to 147 from 140. He has been slightly higher in the past but the fact he's been beaten twice this season off 143 tempered my view of this form slightly, while the race was also watered down somewhat by the absence of Grands Crus and the no show from Captain Chris, who jumped badly right and was pulled up at an early stage.

A couple of hotly contested handicap chases preceded the Argento.

Bless The Wings was a two-and-a-half length winner of the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase, which traditionally represents strong form. This year's renewal saw plenty of casualties, with no fewer than six of the sixteen runners either falling or unseating. I'm of the opinion the race is still likely to prove well worth following, however, and I raised the winner, Bless The Wings, by 8lb to 138, crediting him with 3lb extra for idling.

Just over half an hour later, last year's Timeform winner, The Giant Bolster, obliterated his rivals in the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase,powering home by 17 lengths from Poquelin.

Nothing other than a hefty hike could be allotted to The Giant Bolster, who I raised 15lb to 160. Poquelin also ran with plenty of credit in justifying his mark of 168, which is unchanged.

In addition to Cheltenham, another good-quality handicap chase could be found in Britain on Saturday. Doncaster hosted the Sky Bet Chase, which actually dwarfed the prize-money in the similar events seen at Cheltenham, with Calgary Bay picking up the best part of £43,000 for his two-and-a-half length defeat of Shakalakaboomboom.

Calgary Bay doesn't go to Doncaster that often but he has arguably turned in his best two performances there. His win off 142 by seven lengths in December 2009 represented a career best at the time and there is little doubting this latest success bettered anything he's done in the past. He goes up from 151 to 159.

Shakalakaboomboom also ran really well in second and goes up 5lb to 149, which loosely fits in with the new mark of Knockara Beau, who finished second to him at Cheltenahm in December.

The next three home in the Sky Bet, Fruity O'Rooney, Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader, also ran with credit. Saddle problems were a real cause for concern for Fruity O'Rooney at the last. It slipped so far that rider Jamie Moore worked wonders to maintain the partnership to the finish having lost his irons. Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader didn't jump well and I felt all three of those horses should be kept on the same mark.

JUVENILE JOUSTING

He may have lost the race in the stewards' room but Pearl Swan has gone to the top of the juvenile ratings thus far by passing the post first in Saturday's JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial Finesse Hurdle, writes Dave Dickinson. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of any stewarding decision Pearl Swan and Grumeti appeared very closely matched on Saturday's terms (Pearl Swan was giving his rival 3lb) and with Finale winner Hollow Tree appearing to run another fine race in third, he is used as the benchmark giving marks of 146 to Pearl Swan and 143 to Grumeti.

Such a race ought to make the Triumph picture much clearer but it doesn't. This year's juvenile form was tested in all-age handicap company in Cheltenham's closer on Saturday. Hinterland travelled well but merely plugged on when push came to shove and his 141 mark remains unchanged. He remains in the Triumph picture, and it is worth remembering that Ranjaan has alreadyrun to 141, when winning an all-age handicap at Taunton. So it looks a competitive race at this stage among the British juveniles and the form is taking some weighing up in Ireland too.

It was a tragedy when Sam Bass was lost over Christmas but Ut De Sivola looked the part, particularly when Burrenbridge Lodge and One Cool Shabra (third and fourth to him at Punchestown) defied the odds to fight out another controversial finish at Gowran in the week, beating three better-backed and less-exposed rivals. However, that form took a knock later in the week when Punchestown second Hisaabaat failed to cope with Darroun, who along with his debut conqueror Shadow Catcher, must also be in the mix.

I have no less than15 juveniles rated between 138 and the top of 146. Add to this the fact that the last five Triumph winners ran to marks between 148 and 159 in victory, and that the latest two were not seen on these shores before the February of their winning year, and the race looks even more of a minefield than usual.

BUCK'S PARTY

Although most people know me as the handicapper for the two-year-olds, I have a fairly secret past, writes Matthew Tester. For six or seven years I used to help out the jumping team in the winter.

Perhaps my most versatile moment came some years ago. I had to come up with the ratings for a two-year-old seller at Wolverhampton on the same day that I was finalising the weights for the Scottish Grand National. Thanks entirely to the ratings I had inherited from Phil Smith, the race finished in a three way photo. Phil rang me on the way home to tell me to retire from handicapping chasers because I was never going to top that.

But I was back in the fray for a weekend to fill the gap between one of the jumping team going on holiday and another one returning. So this weekend I had to do a 6f seller from Lingfield and the Cheltenham win of Big Buck's. He certainly is the only 174-rated horse that I will deal with this year! It was a fascinating challenge looking after the staying hurdlers and I had Big Buck's running to 171 in beating Dynaste by seven lengths conceding 4lb, with the latter raised 2lb to 160.

My wife Amelia, a member at Cheltenham since she was in her pram, thinks that Flat racing is what you do while you are waiting to go hurdling. She would love me to do jumpers and it was a great honour. But it was so nervewracking that I am delighted to be able to pass them back to the specialists. Bring on the Brocklesby.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Feeling the chill.

THERE hasn't been an awful lot of racing in the last seven days, with the loss of the big weekend jumps cards proving a real disappointment, but while we're a bit light on flagship horses in this week'sblog our team have picked out several noteworthy performances that might have escaped the attentions of many.

ON THE UP

Despite the limited racing programme last week a couple of middle distance novice hurdlers created enough of an impression to suggest that they could progress on to better things as the season continues, writes Chris Nash.

At Ffos Las on Sunday Benheir sluiced up on his hurdles debut. He had won the last of his three bumper runs back in November and had subsequently changed hands.

Although the opposition here was limited he created a good impression on his debut for Rebecca Curtis when coasting home by 22 lengths. He doesn't qualify for an official rating just yet but the runner-up King's Sunset does and he will enter the handicap ranks with a rating of 105. This would suggest that Benheir turned in a performance worthy of a rating of at least 127 and by any reckoning that represents a decent debut. It will be interesting to see if this initial promise is confirmed next time out.

The second horse worth a mention is Tap Night, who won a 2m4f novice hurdle at Newcastle on Wednesday by an easy 12 lengths. He had previously won a novice handicap race from a mark of 110 and lined up here with an official rating of 125. His stiffest competition looked likely to come from An Capall Mor (pre-race 115), to whom Tap Night had to concede 7lb, but he ran a poor race in the testing conditions.

Although this casts a bit of a shadow over the form, the eventual runner-up Falcun arrived with some consistent form and a pre-race rating of 110. In giving him 7lb and a 12-length beating it is reasonable to assume that Tap Night ran to a figure of 129+ and factoring in the ease of the victory his revised rating will be 132. This was only his fifth hurdles run and his form has a progressive look to it which, in conjunction with a rating of 132, suggests that he could more than hold his own upped in class.

STORM FORCE

The most progressive horse I dealt with in a curtailed week was undoubtedly the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Storm Survivor, writes Graeme Smith. The six-year-old son of Milan has proved a revelation since switched to handicaps and raised in trip and despite being turned over at odds on at Fakenham earlier in January, he resumed winning ways in decisive fashion in a conditional jockeys' event at Plumpton.

Again partnered by Maurice Linehan, Storm Survivor relished the combination of a further step up to 3m1f and the application of a visor, going much further on the bridle than any of his rivals and, after taking a while to get going once shaken up at the second last, powering away from the final flight to account for The Red Laird by an ever-increasing seven lengths.

The runner-up had been off the track since February last year but his profile is generally progressive and I raised his mark 4lb to 105 following this defeat of several others with recent handicap form to their names. The knock-on from that was a 14lb rise for Storm Survivor to 124, having decided he was value for an extra five lengths over the bare winning margin.

SPEED DEMONS

Even though the English cricket team aren't enjoying much success in the Middle East, to say the least, the same can't be said of the British raiders at Meydan this winter, with both sprints last Friday being won by horses trained from these shores, writes Stewart Copeland.

The Group 3 6f Al Shindagha Sprint run on the Tapeta surface was won by the admirable Hitchens, putting up his best performance since an excellent third to Dream Ahead in last summer's Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket.

Always well positioned just behind the pace, he hit the front inside the last and dug deep to hold off the rallying Krypton Factor, narrowly prevailing by a short-head.

Rated 113 in the World Rankings at the end of 2011, Hitchens showed himself here to be as good as ever and remains on that mark. His next port of call looks likely to be the Group 3 6f Mahab Al Shimaal, run on March 10 as part of Super Saturday at this year's festival.

The preceding turf sprint handicap over 5f produced an exciting finish, the first four home all trained in Britain, with Monsieur Joe prevailing by a neck from Inxile, with Bohemian Melody and Iver Bridge Lad filling the framebehind them.

Formerly trained by Walter Swinburn, the Monsieur Joe was having only his second start for Robert Cowell and recorded his best performance since some excellent efforts at Meydan last winter.

He landed this handicap off a mark of 100, and probably ran to a rating of 103, though a case could be made for it to be slightly higher.

His stable companion Prohibit won a similar contest at Meydan this time last year, en route to being successful in last year's Group 1 King's Stand at Royal Ascot, and no doubt connections will be hoping there's better to come from Monsieur Joe as well.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Another depleted week due to the snow, but there was quality action both over the Jumps and on all-weather at the weekend, and both Dave Dickinson and Stewart Copeland give their take on it. Also, Greg Pearson highlights a case that shows lofty rises in the weights don’t always mean the end of a winning spree.

STORM DAMAGE

Stormy Weather swooped late to win Saturday’s John Smith’s Scottish County Hurdle to follow up a recent handicap success at Newcastle, writes Dave Dickinson.

His record of 211 in 2m handicap hurdles over the last couple of months suggests that the mark he began his run on (113) was at the very least fair. But hang on a minute, isn’t this the same Stormy Weather who was over faced in small field conditions races before that?

As handicappers, one of the regular chestnuts is ‘we would love to run in a conditions race but if he runs well we will ruin his/her mark’. We cannot give anyone a guarantee that we will never move a horse’s mark for a conditions race run but we are aware that it can be dangerous to take such form at face value.

In the Fighting Fifth Stormy Weather finished fourth of the five runners, finishing ten lengths behind Celestial Halo, who himself had just won a handicap off 150. However, all that had happened was that the horses who should have finished ahead of him had done so and he had beaten the one rival he was entitled to. So I left hismark on 113. Brian Ellison and the connections had picked up about £5,500 for Stormy Weather’s fourth place.

A distant sixth to Grandouet in the Stanjames.com International at Cheltenham saw him pick up the best part of another £2,000 in prize money and his mark again remained unchanged.

So, he has had five runs since Fighting Fifth day and been in the money every time. Well done to the trainer and the owners for their enterprise. Whether Stormy Weather’s new mark of 126 (from Saturday’s race) will quite get them in the County Hurdle proper remains to be seen. If it doesn’t, maybe I will get a phone call telling me I have been too lenient!

MOON RISING

The feature race of Saturday’s three all-weather Flat meetings was the 6f Class 2 Get Your Bet On At bluesq.com Handicap at Lingfield, writes Stewart Copeland.

The winner, Palace Moon, who got back on the comeback trail after a disappointing 2011 when a ready winner of a 7f minor event at Kempton on his previous start, bettered that form with an impressive success.

Travelling well just off the pace, he quickened in good style to lead inside the last, coming home a length clear of Novellen Lad, with Five Star Junior a head further back in third.

With the majority of his rivals coming into the race in good nick, the form has a very solid look to it.

Successful here off 98, Palace Moon’s rating has been revised to 103, though when you consider he was as high as 109 in 2010, there’s every chance of better to come.

This performance ranks second only to Oasis Dancer on the all-weather sprint scene this winter, and it’ll be an interesting clash if both turn up forthe listed Cleves Stakes over this course and distance in a fortnight.

FOREST IN BLOOM

Sometimes as a handicapper certain race results give you a great deal of pleasure and one of those was the win of Illustrious Forest at Wolverhampton last Monday, writes Greg Pearson.

The John Mackie-trained gelding was raised 15lb from 50 to 65 after he panelled the opposition by an eight-length margin at the Midlands track in December, meaning that while racing in the same grade here (Class 6/51-65 handicap) he had gone from the bottom of the handicap (1lb out of the weights on first the occasion) to the top.

I feel confident his connections would have been deeply aggrieved to have the horse’s rating increased by such a drastic amount after winning the paltry sum of £1704, but you would like to think they were buoyed by the subsequent success of runner-up Shirataki at Kempton two weeks later (he’d been raised 2lb from 54 to 56), whilst both McCool Bannanas and Honourable Knight also did their bit for theform.

The final margin of this week’s victory was only three quarters of a length, but that doesn’t fully demonstrate the gelding’s superiority over his rivals. Always prominent, Illustrious Forest applied pressure from halfway and had opened up a sizeable advantage turning for home. From there he tended to wander like a drunken sailor and this made it very difficult for him to sustain momentum, thus flattering the second Royal Alcor who closed on him late.

Illustrious Forest has now been raised a further 6lb from 65 to 71, with Royal Alcor up only 3lb from 61 to 64 – I believe the 3lb turnaround gives the runner-up a realistic chance of being able to avenge defeat should they meet again.

The winner is only lightly raced for a 4yo and certainly has a progressive profile (over staying trips) so it would be misguided to think the fact he has now been forced up in grade means that he won’t remain ultra-competitive on the all-weather circuit in coming weeks.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
National weights just out but four already well-in
Head of handicapping Phil Smith blogs about the Grand National weights released last week...

Last Tuesday on Valentine's Brook Day at the Savoy Hotel in London I revealed the John Smith's Grand National weights for the race at Aintree which will take place exactly two months later. Most of the trainers were reasonably happy with the weight allocated to their horses as many had done their own calculations based around Ballabriggs being top weight or nearly top weight.

As it happened I chose Synchronised as top weight. I just felt that his overall profile as a Welsh National winner and a Grade 1 Lexus winner gave him the edge over Ballabriggs. Since we lowered the top weight to 11st 10lbs trainers have been much happier about running under top weight than in the past and both Donald McCain and Jonjo O'Neill spoke encouragingly about their chances.

The only trainer who was in any way critical was Dessie Hughes who felt I had not been fair to Black Apalachi. He was second off 154 in 2010 and was agreed in the 2009-2010 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classifications on 159 which is what he would have run off if he had been fit enough in 2011. As he had been off for so long and the horse that beat him (Don't Push It) was not in the race I dropped him back to 154.

In effect he is 5lbs worse with State Of Play for beating that horse in to third place by 20 lengths. It makes you wonder what Dessie felt would have been a fair differential for those two horses. Meet on the same terms? Give State of Play 1lb, 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, more than he did in 2010? I have to be fair to all horses and if I had dropped Black Apalachi any further then I believe Evan Williams would have had cause for complaint. As it happened Dessie seemed unaware that I had dropped Black Apalachi at all!

Dropping horses for long absences is NOT a given. We always look at their form before they were injured and if they were struggling then they often get a large drop (sometimes as much as 12lbs). However if they were running well and the form still looks solid then often they are not dropped at all. Our results with horses coming back after a long absenceare very encouraging. Perhaps Dessie thought that second in the 2010 Grand National wasn't good form.

Inevitably with a two month early closing race horses entered in the race suddenly start to appear and a number ran over the last week some very encouragingly. First up was Burton Port. I had dropped him 6lbs (166 to 160) for his absence because the form of the 2010 Hennessy had not worked out. Diamond Harryhas disappointed and had dropped from 168 to 160. Denman has retired while the fourth and fifth The Tother One and Niche Market have both dropped a stone since running at Newbury.

Owing to the compression at the top of the John Smith's Grand National weights he received a further 2lbs so he is on 158 in the race. This looked neat as an average winner goes up 8lbs, so if Burton Port could replicate his 2010 Hennessy second he could win the National. Clearly he has been expertly brought back to top form by the owner's racing manager Mick Meagher and his trainer Nicky Henderson. I assessed the Denman Chase through The Giant Bolster, a wide margin winner of a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on his previousrun and now on 160.

Therefore I had What A Friend running to 161 (160 +7 lengths -6lbs) and he has been dropped to a rating of 165. It was an encouraging run by him after an absence but it is now 11 months since he was fourth in last year's Gold Cup and I have dropped him to 165 behind Burton Port who is restored to his post Hennessy 166 (160 +11 lengths ahead of The Giant Bolster -6lbs weight differential +1lb for the error as he stuttered into the last fence).

Asa result Burton Port is now 8lbs well in for the John Smith's Grand National. In February 2010 I had him on 158 and his trainer told me that I had ruined the horse's future. Since then he has won a Reynoldstown, been second in an RSA, won a Mildmay, beensecond in a Hennessy and finished second in a Denman Chase. Not bad for a horse I had supposedly ruined.

Long Run I have performing to 178. Burton Port's 166 +10lbs weight and I called the half a length as 2lbs as like his owner I believe Long Run was idling in front. There has been some total nonsense written that it was a disappointing run. For me it was an excellent trial for the Gold Cup. Last year Long Run improved 3lbs from 179 in the King George to 182 in the Gold Cup and I have no doubt he will do at least the same again this year between the Denman Chase and the Gold Cup so he is sure to run at least in the low 180's under his optimum conditions including going up the hill three times and over 2.5 furlongs further.

The big question is can Kauto Star replicate his Kempton 183 in the King George at Christmas at Cheltenham in March? He will have to if he is to win the race. So far his performances in the Gold Cup have been 172, 174, 186, 0 and 169. He did it in 2009, it will be fascinating to see if he can do it in 2012.

On Saturday at Ascot I thought Massini's Maguire ran an excellent trial for the John Smith's Grand National. He is now 6lbs well in for Aintree as like Burton Port I have restored him to a mark he has already been in the past (148 to 154). Just when it looked as if he was going to get caught he stayed on dourly, expertly ridden by Tom Scudamore who hardly ever gets a mention in the press but who I think is a top, top jockey. In the same race Cappa Bleu showed his 147 will make him competitive at Aintree and must also have pleased connections. His form this year is bomb proof.

At Haydock, Giles Cross who is Mr Consistent won the Betfred Grand National Trial by a neck but it was a cosy neck as the jockey was pretty motionless and I called it 3lbs. He is now 6lbs well in at Aintree (138 to 144). Neptune Collonges was staying on all the time confirming what I thought in his previous run at Sandown that he will be well suited to 4.5 miles. He was moved from 159 to 162 but because I had compressed him at Aintree to 157 he is now 5lbs well in. Finally you couldn't rule out Le Beau Bai who stays on 140 and who looked as if he needed at least another mile at Haydock which is much more of a speed track nowadays despite the heavy ground.

So four days after I released the weights for the 2012 John Smith's Grand National there are four horses that are now well in. Burton Port by 8lbs, Massini's Maguire by 6lbs, Giles Cross by 6lbs, and Neptune Collonges by 5lbs. In 1999 when I did my first National I used to panic when horses showed they were well in subsequent to my release of the weights. I am more relaxed nowadays as obviously they are not all going to win. However a dead heat would be nice.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Trials and tribulations

Saturday proved a big day in the run-up to the Triumph Hurdle, with several of the leading contenders completing their preparations at Kempton and Fairyhouse, and there was a real shake-up in the betting in the aftermath.

Kempton was also the scene of the fast-improving Hunt Ball's latest success, and boy did that open a can of worms!

John de Moraville takes the opportunity to fire back at the criticism he received from the gelding's owner in Monday's Racing Post, while Matthew Tester's grievance centres on the Racing Post itself! Read on . . .

IN THE MIX

Oh what a lovely triumph by Baby Mix on Saturday as he leap-frogged back to the top of the juvenile tree (on my figures anyway) by way of his career-best 149 in winning the Grade 2 William Hill Adonis Hurdle, writes Dave Dickinson.

This race saw first defeats over timber for Sadler's Risk (who nevertheless shaped well running to 142) and Dildar, knocking their JCB Triumph chances, though by no means to the extent that Ireland's leading hope had his aspirations dashed just five minutes earlier.

I wrote a few weeks ago about the openness of this year's juvenile centrepiece, but that ten minutes on Saturday just about summed it up. Ante-post favourite Minsk made his hurdle debut at Fairyhouse and was given weight and a narrow beating by the admirable but not-top-class Burrenbridge Lodge, who would be rated 136 in Britain.

He reportedly now misses the race and the more cynical amongst you would maybe think he was only favourite on the back of an impressive Flat win in the Irish Cesarewitch and the fact that he wasunbeaten over hurdles having never been tried over them!

The return to form of Baby Mix will divide opinion I am sure. He made one serious mistake, but racing more prominently on this occasion he settled better than he had when flopping behind Pearl Swan at Cheltenham and gave me the impression that the helter-skelter of the Triumph will be right up his street.

That said there is no denying that Sadler's Risk (who was in receipt of 3lb) was clawing back the advantage in the closing stages and Prestbury should suit him better too. How's that for sitting on the fence. Good job it's a hurdle race!

STILL IN THE HUNT

When jumping's end-of-season gongs are dished out in April, rookie trainer Kieran Burke should, at the very least, be mentioned in dispatches, writes John de Moraville.

Burke, an ex-jockey who took over the licence at the Somerset stables of former boss Pat Rodford, has expertly steered the hugely progressive Hunt Ball through the ranks this term to win six of his seven chases.

Having kicked off his winning spree at Folkestone in November off a basement mark of 69, Hunt Ball has glided to victory off 75, 85, 108, 117 and, most recently, and impressively, at Kempton on Saturday off 127.

The seven-year-old could be named the winner on Saturday a long way from home, easing to victory over that doughty mare Cool Friend by ten lengths. That margin, in my view, could have been readily extended to fifteen, hence his latest weight rise of 15lb.

Hunt Ball's new mark of 142 has not impressed his animated owner Anthony Knott, although his argument that it rules the horse out of his preferred Cheltenham target - the 0-140 Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase - is incorrect.

Qualification for that race is judged on ratings published on February 21 - at which stage Hunt Ball was 127 - although he'll have to run off his new figure of 142. As such he'll carry 12st - 2lb above the 140 ceiling at 11st 12lb.

If anything, Knott's assurances to Barry Geraghty on Saturday, that the gelding had two stone in hand at Kempton, make this 15lb rise look far from prohibitive for Hunt Ball in his eyes. He's also quoted as saying he regrets not entering Hunt Ball in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, believing he has around thirty lengths to find on the principals - another comment that suggests Knott feels a mark in the 150s would be more appropriate!

BALLS UP

One cliché used by racing journalists really annoys me, writes Matthew Tester.

Sunday saw the Racing Post headline "Hunt Ball continues to defy handicapper" after the horse won again at Kempton. The Handicapper has tried to give Hunt Ball a fair chance of winning, so how can Hunt Ball "defy" him by doing just that?

The reason the headline upsets me is that it suggests the Handicapper is trying to stop the horse from winningand that the horse has somehow thwarted him.

The reality is that if a horse has won six handicaps in a row then our job is to try to give it a fair chance to win a seventh one. It is not helpful to imply as, in my opinion, the headline does that we were trying to end the winning run and were defied.

Racing Post - please cut out this cliché.

HANDICAP HINTS

Market Rasen and Carlisle might not always be the first tracks to look to in search of Cheltenham contenders but a couple of handicap winners at those venues in the last week fully deserve to take their chance at the Festival, writes Chris Nash.

At Market Rasen on Sunday Attaglance was the impressive winner of a 2m3f 0-135 handicap hurdle. Runningoff a mark of 130, and as such top weight, he skipped clear from two out to win by nine lengths.

The pace of the race was fair and the time was respectable so there are reasons to think that this could be reliable form. I have decidedto give him full credit for the margin of victory and raised his rating 9lb to 139. He holds entries in the County Hurdle, the Martin Pipe Hurdle and the Coral Cup.

At Carlisle on Monday it was the turn of Tenor Nivernais to advertise his festival claims. He lined up in a 0-130 handicap hurdle over 2m4f off the top rating of 130 and made light of his 11st 12lb burden, drawingaway under hands and heels for a comfortable five-length victory.

He did it in style and I thought he was worth more than the margin, so after recording a figure of 137+ he will be asked to line up off a rating of 140 next time out.

He holds entries in the Martin Pipe Hurdle, the Coral Cup and the Pertemps Final, and although his two most recent victories have been secured on very testing ground his staying-on seventh in the Fred Winter (over 2m) at last year's festival suggests quicker conditions shouldn't prove a problem.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Plenty to chew on before the banquet begins.

There was anything but a second-class feel to the last racing week despite its proximity to Cheltenham with big races all over the country on Saturday.

Aerial edged a pulsating finish to the Grade 3 handicap at Newbury and there was plenty of other graded action elsewhere, with Fontwell and Kelso each staging one of their seasonal highlights.

Kelso also saw the reappearance of last year's Grand National winner Ballabriggs as he gears up towards his Aintree defence, which is also covered in this week's edition, and we throw in a bit of action from the desert for you Flat fans out there too!

AERIAL PICKS UP LATE

Saturday's 2m4f Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup produced one of the tightest finishes we've seen in valuable handicap chases this season, writes Graeme Smith.

It was the Paul Nicholls-trained Aerial who came out on top, but only by a short head from the flagging Dan Breen, and the third and fourth also finished within three and a half lengths as the quartet drew clear.

With such a tight finish involving that many horses there's no real need to alter their marks drastically.

The view I took of the race revolved around raising Dan Breen 5lbto 148 - the mark he finished last season on - and the fourth-placed Fine Parchment (last year's winner) 2lb to 135, the mark he'd finished second at Aintree from in the autumn. The third-placed Rileyev therefore went up 4lb to 136 (his actual rise is7lb as he was 3lb out of the handicap), making this a career-best effort stepping up beyond 2m for the first time in a while.

All of this meant a 6lb rise for Aerial for his most valuable success to date, and his connections will no doubt hope he can defy his mark of 155 when getting a chance over longer trips, having needed every yard to get up.

I spent Saturday afternoon at Kelso where the totepool.com Premier Chase featured the return of the Grand National winner Ballabriggs.

The pace was notably steady for much of the contest and all bar the huge outsider still held a chance halfway up the run-in. The proximity of the 128-rated Abbeybraney holds the form down and I've rated the race around him running to that figure, which has both According To Pete and Ballabriggs below their best in the face of an insufficient test of stamina - the latter coming up nearly 30lb shy of his 160 rating.

That trio all remain on their pre-race marks but Master Of The Hall (who conceded weight all round) earned a rise for his dominant success, his new figure of 151 (up 3lb) reflecting the fact he had a deal more in hand than the four-length margin.

POOLE WINS SWIMMINGLY

The weights for all the Cheltenham handicaps were revealed last Wednesday in the traditional press conference held at Prestbury Park, writes Martin Greenwood.

Part of the process involved telling members of the audience the likely cut-off point for their runners (what rating will likely give your horse a run). I also pointed out that if you were able to win between times you would incur a 5lb penalty, which would help the horses slightly lower down the handicap, and that scenario played out at Newbury on Friday.

Poole Master, trained by David Pipe, was rated 130 prior to the race, which in normal years would just about get you into both the Coral Cup and the Pertemps, whichhe is entered in.

Poole Master is also entered in the Martin Pipe handicap for conditionals on the Friday of the festival. This race always attracts a mammoth entry, and the weights on the day are usually very compressed, usually only around 12lb separates top weight from bottom, meaning you would normally need to be rated in the high 120s to get in.

This year the race has moved from a 0-140 to a 0-145, meaning the likelihood is that you would have to be rated around 133 to get in which of course would have put Poole Master's participation in the race David would clearly love to win for the first time in serious jeopardy.

Luckily, Poole Master will be able to race off 135, thus enabling him to run in any of the handicaps at Cheltenham, after he scooted up in a novice at Newbury.

Top rated on BHA figures after winning his last two novices, Poole Master was pretty impressive in accounting for Nicky Henderson's promising Let's Get Serious (who was receiving 4lb) by five lengths, the winning distance not doing justice to his superiority. With the rest of the field well strung out this looked a decent renewal of the race, and Poole Master is now rated 144, meaning he will be 9lb ‘well in' at The Festival.

CORAL CUP POINTERS

Two performances among the middle distance hurdlers are worth a mention from last week, writesChris Nash.

On Sunday Third Intention took the Grade 2 Game Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell in good style. He was stepped up in trip to 2m4f and also had a tongue tie on for the first time and that combination led to whatI have rated as a career-best performance.

He was a decent juvenile hurdler last season and finished a close seventh in the Triumph with the likes of Brampour and Smad Place behind.

He came to Fontwell rated 145- having been runner-up in a Taunton handicap in January - and travelled really well prior to coming nine lengths clear under hands-and-heels riding. You could question what he beat, with the formerly useful second (Topolski) and third (Duc De Regniere) both having pulled up last time but it was hard not to be impressed with the manner of his win.

His mark will rise to 153 and (given that Sunday was the last day that form could be taken into account for the Cheltenham handicaps) that is the rating he will be asked to run off if he takes his chance in the Coral Cup at the Festival.

Another engaged in the Coral Cup is the novice Tap Night, who won the Grade 2 Premier Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Kelso on Saturday. His form has a very progressive look to it and he improved his rating 10lb to 142 as he mastered the Tolworth winner Captain Conan (rated 142) late in the day for a two-length success.

I have used the runner-up to level the race and, taking into account the 3lb penalty he carried, have Tap Night running to 141.

This victory earns him a 5lb penalty for the Cheltenham handicap, which means he'll line up off a mark of 137 if taking his chance - effectively 4lb well in. The step up to 2m5f at the Festival should also play to his strengths having already won over 2m4f and looked better the further he went on Saturday.

FOX SETS SIGHTS ONGOLD

The 2m Dubai Gold Cup will make its debut on Dubai World Cup night later this month and a key trial for that event took place during the week in the shape of the Nad Al Sheba Trophy, a Group 3 contest over 1m6f, writes Stephen Hindle.

Fox Hunt, now in the care of Mahmood Al Zarooni, was a model of consistency for Mark Johnston in 2011, the German St Leger one of his four wins. He also finished seventh of twenty-three, beaten under three lengths, in the Melbourne Cup on his final start, the form of which is working out extremely well.

He already looks an improved performer this year, however, following up a win in handicap company on his debut at Meydan with this two and a half length success over Opinion Poll over the same course and distance.

Opinion Poll was consistent himself in 2011. I had him on 116 (117 was agreed by my international colleagues) and it seemed reasonable to assume he had run to that figure as it also ties in with the fourth, Modun, who was agreed as being 110 at the end of year classifications.

With Jakkalberry appearing to have run to a similar level as when seventh in the Hong Kong Vase when last seen out in December, this seems pretty solid form, and I have Fox Hunt running to 118.

Fox Hunt will have a leading chance in the Dubai Gold Cup, but further down the line he won't need to improve much, if at all, to look like a top contender for the only race with the title of solely Gold Cup, at Royal Ascot. His credentials are there for all to see. He has just beaten last year's runner-up Opinion Poll, he shapes as if the extra distancewill suit, and he has already won at the Royal meeting having taken last year's Duke of Edinburgh Handicap.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
SATURDAY saw the tradition precursor to Cheltenham in Sandown’s Imperial Cup card, although the big-race winner, Paintball, could not be aimed at the sizeable bonus for completing an Imperial Cup/Cheltenham Festival double after bruising a foot.

Our NH handicappers give their views, while Phil Smith answers back at one of the most common criticisms our team receives. There was some quality action on the all-weather too, on which Stewart Copeland gives his take.

PAINTBALL HITS THE TARGET

The Paddy Power Imperial Cup looked like being a close race early in the home straight but eventually two horses came away from the others, writes Dave Dickinson.

Given that the next five home were covered by less than two lengths and that all had solid recent handicap form, finding a marker horse wasn’t much of a problem.

The winner Paintball is going up 11lb to 139 as a result of Saturday’s win. The well-backed Master Of Arts and Ted Spread appeared to have been laid out for this but Charlie Longsdon’s master plan was the one that worked, Paintball having had a wind operation during his absence from the track.

Second home was Nampour, whose most recent run had been difficult to assess at the time - he was well beaten by the French import Balgarry at Newbury but finished fourteen lengths and more in front of the rest. I raised him just 4lb for that run at the time but have now revisited the Newbury race and raised it a further 5lb, taking Balgarry up to 145.

WOOD BURNS THEM OFF

The final of the EBF National Hunt Novice Hurdlers Series was held at Sandown on Saturday and the Grade 3 handicap was every bit as competitive as ever, with no fewer than fifteen of the eighteen-strong field having finished in the first three last time out, writes Chris Nash.

The pace wasn’t as helter-skelter as can sometimes be the case and it was noticeable that horses ridden handily did best. The first four were in a line over two out, having all raced in mid-division or closer, and Ambion Wood drew clear from the last to win by an ever-increasing five lengths. He carried top weight from a mark off 132 and is clearly a useful prospect.

Carrigmorna King (ran off 122) finished second with a further seven lengths back to Aikideau (off 128) and Speed Master (off 126). All four were running in their first handicap so I had to rely on their novice form when levelling the race.

I settled on a 10lb rise for the winner - taking him to 142 - and a 5lb rise for the runner-up, whilst the ratings of the third and fourth remain unchanged.

DROPPING HORSES

We are often told by trainers that they and their owners can't understand why horses go up so much for winning but are hardly ever dropped very much when they lose, writes Phil Smith.

Often there are very good integrity reasons why we might be reluctant to drop horses quickly, but a look at my handicap winners this week seems to show that this belief is yet another misunderstanding and false perception of what really happens.

Seven of my handicap winners this week had benefitted from some serious drops on their previous runs.

Sound Accord ran off 135 at Fontwell and finished sixth. He was dropped a total of 29lb over his next five runs and reaped the benefit with a thirteen-length success at Huntingdon on Sunday off a markof 106.

Harris Hawk ran off 99 in his first handicap chase and was dropped 8lb prior to going on to win relatively narrowly in a competitive finish at Newcastle next time.

Wednesday’s Fontwell winner Current Climate ran off 95 at Folkestone in November. He was dropped 7lb for that, went up 2lb for finishing second and was then dropped 2lb in each of his next two races. In total a drop of 9lb in four runs in which he picked up prize money in three of them.

Mr Woods ran off 117 when pulling up at Ayr in March last year. He was having only his fifth run since when taking advantage of a mark of 86 (total of 31lb) at Carlisle last Thursday, and he then went on to defy a 7lb penalty at Ayr two days later. He’s now going back to 110.

Merigo was second in the Scottish National last April off 142, beaten less than a length. Following four substandard efforts he won off a mark of 129 when regaining his form at Ayr on Friday, and now his owner tells me a 7lb rise for that success looks harsh!! Hobb's Dream had dropped 18lb in four runs prior to winning at Wincanton off 88, and Dover’s Hill was 8lb lower than two runs earlier when he returned to form with a bang at Sandown at the weekend.

Horses DO come down quickly when their lack of form warrants it and hopefully our work gives them an equal chance with those horses whose ratings have been left or havegone up. At the same time horses can still win when we put them up quite large amounts, as demonstrated by Hunt Ball, who has gone up another 3lb this week after the form of his Kempton win was franked by the runner-up’s subsequent success.As a result he has gone up 76lb for his six wins.

By all means criticise us but please from a position of knowledge and understanding not from old chestnuts peddled out without statistical back up and out of prejudice and ignorance.

DREAM SEQUENCE

Meydan may have staged Super Saturday at the weekend but there was some excellent fare on the Flat much closer to home, with Wolverhampton staging its most valuable card of the year on the same day, writes Stewart Copeland.

The opening race was the New William Hill iPhone App Lady Wulfruna Stakes, a listed contest for older horses over 7f.

Itproduced something of a surprise winner in the shape of Libys Dream, a four-year-old filly trained by Tom Dascombe. She’s been in good form throughout the winter, successful in two handicaps in that period, improving her rating from 66 to 81. This win represented a further marked improvement, however, and she’s been credited with a rating of 95.

Always well positioned just off the pace, she led inside the last to hold off the challenge of Belgian Bill by a head, with the consistent Clockmaker a further length and a half back in third.

Based on our race standards, we’d expect such a winner to be in the 95-100 bracket, but given the pace of the race seemed to favour those who raced prominently, I’ve erred more on the cautious side of that scale. It also means that Clockmaker has run to his mark of 96, a reliable guide to the level of the race as well.

Later on in the afternoon there was a good quality 6f handicap, and the finish was dominated by a couple of progressive four-year-old geldings, with Alben Star edging out Whaileyy by a short head.

The former is quickly making up for lost time having missed the whole of 2011 through injury, and his win in the Class 2 William Hill App-Download Today! represented his best form to date.

Successful off 92, he improved his rating to 98, and in the more than capable hands of Richard Fahey it’ll be no surprise if he steps up again down the line, looking the sort to make his presence felt in top class handicaps back on turf.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Lots to digest after fantastic Cheltenham

A fantastic week and we have a bulging blog. There are reflections on the standings of Champions and possible future Champions, whilst deep into the piece Martin Greenwood and Chris Nash fire back at some criticism the team was surprised to receive during the week.

A TRUE CHAMPION?

The Stan James Champion Hurdle may have produced a shock result butit proved a relatively easy race to assess, writes Dave Dickinson.

The admirable Overturn had run to 166 on two of his last three starts and it seems hard to imagine he has run below that rating, given the wonderful ride he got from his pilot, Jason Maguire. Using Overturn as the benchmark, the winner Rock On Ruby is raised 5lb to 170.

So what of Hurricane Fly and Binocular? The going map showed that the good to soft ground in the good (good to soft in places) was all in the back straight on the climb towards the third last.

Consequently kicking at the top of the hill was a very good tactic, certainly on the first two days. When Maguire made his move having briefly slowed the pace going up the hill, Noel Fehily on Rock on Ruby was in a position to cover it but the two previous winners were not.

Worse still, they were also caughtbehind horses who were in the same boat. I would take nothing away from the winner but another race between Rock on Ruby, Hurricane Fly and Binocular would be well worth seeing.

Cinders And Ashes proved an up to standard winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle running to a figure of 151, using both the second and third as benchmarks.

The JCB Triumph proved an altogether trickier race to reassess. I used Hollow Tree, who was seventh home, as my benchmark to put Countrywide Flame up to 152.

The solid pace in this race compared well with the County Hurdle thirty-five minutes later and the diminutive winner never looked likely to play a leading role until the home straight, leaving the strong impression the emphasis was firmly on stamina, something he does not seem to lack.

There was a suspicion he may have been flattered by staying towards the middle of the course as only the third home Sailors Warn of the first four in the following County Hurdle began his move towards the stands' side in the home straight. However, that theory didn't appear to hold up in the conditional jockeys' handicap later on the card.

KING IN WAITING?

Sprinter Sacre (169) lined up for last week's Racing Post Arkle as the highest-rated novice chaser this century, and his dazzling performance at Cheltenham underlined why, writes John de Moraville.

The imposing six-year-old was never out of second gear in taking his unbeaten chase record to four with Barry Geraghty employing cruise control throughout.

Cue Card ran a career-best 157 in second - on a par with the three previous Arkle runners-up - Finian's Rainbow, Somersby and Kalahari King - but Sprinter Sacre did not have to better his eye-watering Game Spirit performance to strollhome by seven lengths.

Would Sprinter Sacre have won the Queen Mother Champion Chase? Impossible to say but he is already rated just 4lb below last week's winner Finian's Rainbow and has yet to come off the bridle.

With boundless scope for further improvement it's no wonder he is already a warm order for next year's 2m showpiece. Look at the difference a year has made to Finian's Rainbow - 157 after last year's Arkle and now top of the pile on 173.

While Finian's Rainbow and defending champion Sizing Europe (171) fought out a thrilling duel, last week's Queen Mother - with the final fence having to be bypassed - was anunsatisfactory renewal.

Next year that pair will be ten and eleven years of age respectively, too, so it's perhaps no surprise that the dashing young pretender is hovering around the even-money mark to seize the crown in 2013.

Sprinter Sacre wasn't the only novice chaser to leave an indelible impression on the heaving Cheltenham masses. The Irish have a budding new star in unbeaten Sir Des Champs (162), immediately ear-marked for next year's Gold Cup after fluently disposing of gallant Champion Court (155) in the Jewson Novices' Chase.

There was no shortage of candidates for ride of the week - Barry Geraghty (RiversideTheatre) and Tony McCoy (Synchronised) spring readily to mind. But for sheer artistry and audacity, Paul Carberry producing 'bridle horse' Bellvano (up 10lb to 148) to snatch the concluding Grand Annual Chase in the final 75 yards took some beating.

RIVER IN FULL FLOW

Thursday's Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was the strongest renewal of the race to date, writes Mark Olley.

Pre-race Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Rubi Light were all rated 168, while Somersby and Kalahari King were 166.

Albertas Run probably produced the best effort in defeat of this year's Festival and I see no reason why he didn't repeat the form he'd shown when winning the last two runnings, so have based the race around him on 168. Medermit was half a length behind and moves up 2lb to a new career-high figure of 167.

Alan King's gelding has run a string of excellent races this winter and if he can just sharpen up his jumping a top prize must surely come his way.

I have allowed 2lb for the half-length winning margin of Riverside Theatre as he didn't get the clearest of runs, being repeatedly bumped, and this moves Nicky Henderson's top-class gelding to a new high of 170 - a mark that can also be justified on the two Ascot wins he'd recorded prior to this.

This compares very favourably with recent winners of this race - Albertas Run ran to his 168 in both 2011 & 2010, Imperial Commander was 165 in 2009 and Our Vic was 168 in 2008.

There have been many column inches devoted to Hunt Ball and his remarkable climb up the handicap this winter, but his effort is not quite unique as anyone who remembers Venn Ottery can testify.

In July 2003 Venn Ottery was rated 64 when trained by Oliver Carter and by March 2004 he had reached the height of 149 when in the care of Paul Nicholls. This is the exact same 85lb rise that Hunt Ball has made this season, but I guess Hunt Ball just shades it as technically he has gone from 68 to 154 (86lbs) as on his first handicap run/win he raced from 1lb out of the weights! Either way they are both remarkable horses.

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS

"There's definitely a north-south divide in jumping these days, as you win a little race up there and go up 8lb and come down here and find you're at least a stone wrong."

You would imagine these were the disillusioned rantings of a northern trainer after one of his stalwarts was tailed off in one of the big races 'down South', writes Martin Greenwood.

However, it was the quote supplied to the Racing Post by Malcolm Jefferson after his Cape Tribulation had won the Pertemps Final on the Thursday of the Festival.

Jefferson who trains in North Yorkshire couldn't resist traipsing out the same prosciutto-thin argument that the BHA handicapping team treat the trainers based in the north differently to their southern counterparts, despite all known evidence and stats strongly suggesting otherwise. It seems even standing next to a Cheltenham winner can't budge such entrenched views!

Cape Tribulation returned to something like his best (now 150) after winning off 142, and he was the second 'northern' handicap hurdle winner of the festival following the Donald McCain-trained Son of Flicka's victory in the Coral Cup the previous day - Attaglance (also trained by Malcolm Jefferson) became the third of the week on the final day and is covered by Chris Nash later in the blog.

Son of Flicka, up 7lb to 142, also returned to near his best and made amends for his close second at the 2011 festival.

The three non-handicaps I looked after at Cheltenham were of course headed by the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, which everyone in racing knows was won for an historic fourth consecutive time by Big Buck's.

An incredible reception greeted the winner post-race, and even an unsentimental cynic like myself was moved by the joyous scenes, which included witnessing a very emotional female RUK stalwart.

Anybody who has read this blog over the years will know the undiluted admiration I have given to this horse ever since I awarded him the rating of 174 in March 2009, when I described him as a machine. That rating has never changed since, and remains the highest rating I have given in my time as a handicapper.

Superbly ridden a usual by Walsh, who, it seems, is always aware of imminent dangers while riding Big Buck's, the horse predictably found more for pressure after his closest challenger, the game Voler La Vedette (who put up a personal best of 160, receiving 7lb), appeared to be cruising. Superlatives run dry for such an imperious racehorse like Big Buck's, and it would take a brave soul to bet against him to make it five in a row.

Obviously it would be no surprise that Big Buck's was clear in the ratings, and the BHA had another top-rated winner in the 2m5f Neptune novices on Wednesday.

Simonsig had created a big impression prior to then, and certainly enhanced his profile even further with a most clear-cut victory by seven lengths from Irish-challenger Felix Younger, having been left clear when Cotton Mill ducked out two out. The five-year standards suggest 153, while the time comparison suggests 161.

I have rated the 'bare' form of the race around the standards which make both Felix Younger and Cotton Mill (who I have estimated would have finished around the runner-up spot) both 147, with Simonsig up 9lb to a minimum of 157.

Simonsig is already a classperformer, and he looks certain to play a part in top races next season whatever his chosen targets.

The 3m novice on Friday looked to be between Boston Bob (151), Sea of Thunder (149) and Brindisi Breeze (148) on the ratings, and two of those fought out the finish. Sea of Thunder, who achieved his rating when falling at the last at Cheltenham in December, hasn't lived up to that form since and was particularly disappointing on his return to the track.

The other two more or less confirmed their pre-race ratings, Brindisi Breeze again showing strong staying capabilities once hitting the front at the ninth, keeping up the gallop relentlessly to see off Boston Bob by two lengths.

The latter was asked to go about his business later than the winner and a mistake at the last put paid to his chance. Brindisi Breeze is now 150, while Boston Bob will be a maximum of that figureshould he return to the Britain again this season. Grand Vision in third (147 from 136) and Meister Eckhart (141 from 133) in fifth continued on the upgrade, while fourth-placed Lovcen confirmed his pre-race rating of 142.

Finally, returning to my original theme, it should be noted that Brindisi Breeze is trained in Scotland, and Countrywide Flame, winner of the Triumph earlier in the day, is trained in Yorkshire. Add these to the three handicap winners already mentioned and maybe it's the turn of the trainers based in the south to complain about their northern brethren!

MORE THAN A GLANCE

Further to Martin Greenwood's piece on the north-south divide, I thought it worth looking at the result of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle in depth, writes Chris Nash.

Attaglance prevailed in a tight finish to give Malcolm Jefferson his second handicap success of the week, with a neck and the same back to Toner d'Oudairies and Oscar Nominee and the first eight covered by seven lengths.

Within those eight horses we had runners trained not only in the north and the south but also two trained in Ireland. They were aged from five to eight years and were a mix of experiencedhandicappers and unexposed novices. Two had won last time out, one had been placed on his most recent start and five hadn't been especially competitive.

As such the race stands up as a fine example of what our team is trying to achieve - a competitive race with an exciting finish regardless of horse profile.

Attaglance had gone up 9lb for winning 'a little race in the north' on his previous start. He goes up a further 5lb on the back of this.
 
Changing focus as Flat racing takes centre stage.

The National Hunt team still have big meetings at Aintree and Sandown to look forward to but Saturday was a definite sign that spring is here as Flat racing took centre stage for the first time this year. Lingfield’s card saw the first pattern race of the British season in the Winter Derby, while a field of potentially smart three-year-olds from the Spring Cup are also discussed within today's blog.

GOING LOCO

The 2012 edition of the Group 3 Blue Square Winter Derby Stakes over 1m2f at Lingfield on Saturday went the way of dependable veteran Premio Loco, writes Greg Pearson.

Given a ‘gun ride’ by the underutilised George Baker, the eight-year-old gelding equalled his best all-weather figure of 111, which he’d previously achieved when fourth in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan last year.

Premio Loco’s rating will remain at 113, a figure derived from his second in the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket three starts back. Comparing his performance with recent winners of the Winter Derby, only the Clive Brittain-trained Hattan ran higher when posting a performance of 113 in 2008.

Premio Loco became the first horse to win a Winter Derby carrying a penalty since Caluki won a muddling renewal in 2004, defying a 5lb penalty to that horse’s 3lb extra burden too.

In second was the solid 105-performer Cai Shen who was beaten half a length in receipt of 5lb from the winner and as such ran to his mark using a 1lb differential for the margin. There is little doubt the Richard Hannon-trained colt received few favours from his wide draw but I don’t necessarily subscribe to the theory that he was an unlucky loser. The third-placed Circumvent had a pre-race rating of 98 but ran to 104. He’s much less exposed on all-weather so I gave him a separate all-weather mark of 104 whilse increasing his turf rating to just 100 – I feel a turf mark in excess of 100 would have been too high given he had ten starts on the surface in 2011 without running above that level.

GUSTO SPRINGS FORWARD

It’s been well publicised that Richard Hannon won the Listed bluesquare.com Spring Cup at Lingfield with subsequent Group 1 performers Paco Boy and Dubawi Gold during their respective three-year-old careers, and comparisons will no doubt be drawn between that pair and his latest winner Gusto, writes Graeme Smith.

While it’s a bold call to suggest Gusto will go on to emulate those horses at the top level I have him recording a stronger performance than they did in the 7f Lingfield contest – Paco Boy ran to 96+ in 2008 and Dubawi Gold 106 last year – so Gusto's 110 effort is the best in the race’s ten-year history.

Admittedly it wasn’t a truly-run contest and Gusto was probably at an advantage going from the front, but nevertheless both he and third-placed Bannock (pre-race 110, now 108) had won listed races as juveniles and the front three drew four lengths clear of the recent handicap scorer Pale Orchid (rated 91). As such I took the view that it was worth rating the race higher than the 105 figure the historical standards suggested – my 110 on Gusto has Pale Orchid running bang on his pre-race rating.

This level admittedly means an 8lb rise for runner-up Kenny Powers, who’d recently returned from Dubai, though he is still lightly raced and was completely unexposed on all-weather. If anything there’s a case for suggesting better still may come from him – he came from a poorer position than the pair he split and was the only one able to make any inroads into their advantage as he finished strongly.

IMPROVEMENT ON THE CARDS

Tipping is all about the future and handicapping is all about the past. This is why handicappers do not try to make their living as tipsters, writes Matthew Tester.

However, at January’s press conference for the World Thoroughbred Rankings, the journalists always ask us to give them “dark horses” for the classics. A few newspapers reported my nomination that 40-1 about Most Improved for the 2000 Guineas looked way too generous. Handicappers are not allowed to bet - to do so is a sackable offence. But it is encouraging that Most Improved has recently snuck down to 8-1 third favourite for the race.

Most Improved is trained by BrianMeehan at Manton. I spent four years there learning from Barry Hills when he was the trainer at Manton. Barry has since complained that I had four years helping him to win races followed by a lifetime trying to stop him!
 
I love the way he gives himself a pat on the back for tipping a horse at 40/1 that is now 8/1.
 
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