The thoughts of the handicappers.

SlimChance said:
I love the way he gives himself a pat on the back for tipping a horse at 40/1 that is now 8/1.
Click to expand...

Have to give him credit for finding that value bet but history dictates that there is significant evidence Most Improved will end up missing the race and running in a conditions event in October, be sold to America or be pulled up in a Classic.
 
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SATURDAY saw a bumper day of action on the Flat, the turf season opening at Doncaster, Kempton staging one of the best Polytrack cards of the entire year and Meydan hosting the world's richest race in the Dubai World Cup. Our team of Flat handicappers cover the highlights.

HILL TOP

I have something of a love/hate relationship with theLincoln, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

I look forward to it each year as it marks the start of a new turf season and all that it promises over the coming months and I enjoy the fact that it is contested by a bunchof largely exposed older handicappers, who compete for a nice prize without the nuisance of a rapidly improving three-year-old or two that the big mile handicaps later in the year tend to come with.

On the other hand, the big yards (Gosden, Haggas etc) often prepare a future Group horse for it while the time of year means that, with fitness at a premium, the actual race itself sometimes doesn't provide the competitive and exciting finish that makes the job worthwhile.

This year, however, was a good year. Having finished runner-up in last year's race off 95 Brae Hill went one better off the same mark on Saturday, beating fast-finishing ex-stable companion Mull Of Killough (96) by a shorthead with the Haggas-trained Fury (98) a length further away in third. The winner was having his thirty-third start and is unlikely to have made vast improvement on anything we have seen from him before - he has never been much better than a 97-98 performer at his very best - but I am happy to call this his best performance yet for the time being and have raised him 4lb to a new mark of 99.

While the runner-up is slightly less exposed he was still having the 17th start of his career and had never been better than 96 previously - once again I am happy to believe this is a career-best and have moved him up 3lb, also to 99.

Third-placed Fury is an interesting one as he looked a Group horse in the making early last season after finishing fifth in Frankel's 2,000 Guineas and being touched off for the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown. Immediately after that performance he was rated 106 but the wheels fell off in a big way and he finished last in all three of his subsequent starts, registering performance figures in the low 80s in all three. Subsequently gelded and allowed to compete off 98 on Saturday he showed a return to form and will be raised 1lb to 99for the handicaps in which his future now seems to lie.

One final pat on the back from the Lincoln goes to fourth-placed Edinburgh Knight who ran a blinder under top weight off a mark of 104. He also goes up 1lb to 105 (which should keep a number of top handicaps open to him) and proves that top weights can be perfectly competitive in these big handicaps.

The William Hill Spring Mile (the Lincoln consolation) also provided a very satisfactory result from a handicapping perspective. Again the top weight Kyllachy Star proved competitive in finishing second off a mark of 90 and will be raised only 1lb to a new mark of 91 for his effort, but he had to give best to 50-1 shot Norse Blues who took the contest off 85. He is another about whom the handicappers know plenty and I have done nothing more than raise him back to his previous career high of 90 (+5lb) for his success.

The most interesting horse from the race, however, was fourth-placed Captain Bertie (84). He is another who was gelded over the winter and came in for significant market support, which he might have justified with more luck in running having met with all sorts of trouble during the race, dropping back to the rear of the field and then finishing like an express train to grab fourth. So the conundrum for me was whether to revise his rating in terms of what he might have achieved or what he actually achieved?

It is a dangerous game rerating horses on what you think they might have run to with more luck - you have to be very sure of the probable outcome if you are to base a horse's future rating on it. Yes, Captain Bertie looked extremely unlucky and his supporters probably feel aggrieved but I don't feel I can say with certainty that he would have won. I have raised his rating by 1lb (to 85), which means he will meet second and third on the same terms in a future handicap and be 4lb better off with the winner - I also have it in mind that he has not won a race since September 2010 and palpably failed to "go on" after a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearancelast year when second in the Esher Cup at Sandown in April. We will see.

Over in Dubai the Godolphin Mile was overshadowed in terms of quality by a number of other races on the card but still produced an impressive winner in the shape of African Story. A relatively "moderate" miler when in the care of Andre Fabre in France last year (rated 111 in the European Rankings), his career has taken off since setting foot on Meydan's Tapeta track and, but for a luckless run in the Firebreak in February he would now be four from four on the surface. At the present time I have a figure of 120 on his performance, although one or two of my international colleagues are favouring 119 - obviously all this will shake down as the year progresses and it will be interesting to see the path Godolphin tread with him and whether he can translate his new found improvement back onto turf.

TALE OF TWO CITIES

The Roger Charlton trained six-year-old Cityscape posted a career-best performance in winning the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Stakes over 1m 1f at Meydan on Saturday, writes Greg Pearson.

Going into the race he was rated 121, a figure he had achieved when third in the 2011 Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Canford Cliffs and a narrow second to Dick Turpin in Milan's Group 1 Premio Vittorio Di Capua Stakes.

Without question it was a strong Group 1 field that he comprehensively outpointed here in a track record time - there was only one runner rated below 116 in third-placed City Style (113), and that gelding came with a progressive profile. Taking a line through Mutahadee reproducing the 116+ figure he achieved when scoring a facile handicap success three starts back would suggest Cityscape ran to 125 in beating that one by a comfortable four and a quarter lengths (which I called 9lb). To put things in perspective against recent winners, 125 is the performance figure I allocated to Gladiatorus when he obliterated the 2009 field at Nad Al Sheba in most impressive fashion - incidentally both he and Cityscape were racing beyond 1m for the first time.

Testament to Cityscape's toughness and durability, he has been widely travelled and astutely placed by Charlton to win Group races in four different countries (England, Ireland, France and Dubai). Not many horses can attest to that.

Pre-race favourite Ambitious Dragon ran disappointingly but pulled himself into theground through the early and middle stages, and it's debateable whether he was entirely comfortable racing in the anti-clockwise direction.

Later on the card was the world's richest race - the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over 1m2f. This result had a British flavour with the first two, Monterosso and Capponi (both now with Mahmood Al Zarooni), both having represented Mark Johnston earlier in their careers. Unlike last year's running, which will long be remembered for the farcically slow pace, this year's edition was a more truly-run contest and saw Monterosso (pre-race 121) produce a career-best performance of 127 in beating the 122-rated Capponi by three lengths.

Capponi had beaten Monterosso when winning the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 three weeks earlier, but it was clear Monterosso had derived significant benefit from that race after a year off.

Unlike many others from my native Australia I have given up making excuses for So You Think. Make no mistake he is a serious racehorse - he's run to figures of between 118 and 126 on all nine starts for Aidan O'Brien - but superstar is a term I no longer associate with him, acknowledging his three European Group 1 successes. Bring on Royal Ascot - we need the great mare Black Caviar to come and restore some credibility for the Aussies.

CLASSIC ACTION

Among all the top-class action on Dubai World Cup night I had the privilege of applying figures to a couple of races, writes Stephen Hindle.

The Dubai Sheema Classic, a 1m4f Group 1 event worth the best part of £2 million, was a very classy affair, with Champion Stakes winner Cirrus Des Aigles holding on by a neck from Breeders' Cup Turf winner St Nicholas Abbey.

Whilst St Nicholas Abbey was possibly inconvenienced to a degree by allowing the winner first run in a race run at less than a true gallop, he did have enough time to get past and I set my level around the Aidan O'Brien-trained stalwart, electing to have him running to 124, the same figure as in the Breeders' Cup.

That gave a performance rating of 125 for Cirrus des Aigles, the high-class French gelding still a little below his high watermark of 128 earned at Ascot.

Jakkalberry stayed on well down the outside for Britain, though still finishing three and a half lengths adrift of St Nicholas Abbey, and he looked back to near his best, running to 119.

AnotherO'Brien inmate, Treasure Beach, was half a length further back in fourth and the Irish Derby winner helps give the form a solid look, as does the consistent South African-trained mare Mahbooba in fifth.

It was nice to see the ultra-consistent Opinion Poll return to the winners enclosure following the Dubai Gold Cup as he held on to beat Joshua Tree, like Jakkalberry trained by Marco Botti, by a comfortable three-quarters of a length.

For a stayer, Opinion Poll has an excellent turn of foot and he displayed it two furlongs out to put the race to bed. I often base my races around him and saw this one as no different, another 116 meaning Joshua Tree has repeated a couple of 114 performances we had for him last season. Opinion Poll has now made the frame in his last nineteen races and looks set for another solid campaign in 2012.

THAT'S MY BOY

The new two-year-old season kicked off on Saturday which was great news because I am always excited to see the new crop start, writes Matthew Tester.

My Boy Bill won the Brocklesby in tidy style and my impression is that he is a nice prospect. He was ridden with patience and went past them well despite having to be switched to get his run. This race varies considerably in class and time will tell how strong this renewal was.

With Stewart Copeland away on holiday, I have also been helping with some of the sprinters to make up my workload.

The highest rated performance I looked after this week was in Dubai's Golden Shaheen at Meydan on Saturday. Krypton Factor pulled away from a high-class field and we have him pencilled in at 124. Rocket Man had won the same race last year but was two and a quarter lengths away in second. Third was Luck Or Design who had won the big sprint in Hong Kong on Cathay Pacific day in December.

To put that in perspective, Dream Ahead was a 126-horse last year which tells you how impressive this performance looks.
 
Mile performers to the fore on the Flat.

We expect the NH handicappers to be out in force next week following Aintree's showcase meeting and this week sees a shorter piece concentrating on the Flat.

Our 1m handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill runs the rule over a good-quality meeting that took place at Kempton on Saturday, whilst 7f assessor Graeme Smith details the sort of considerations that went into rating an above-average maiden winner when having relatively little form to go on.

MILES CLEAR

A relatively quiet week over 1m burst into life at Kempton on Saturday with four interesting races over the distance, producing three performances in excess of 100, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

All-weather regular Nazreef set the ball rolling with a convincing three-length success in the Betfred Goals Galore (London Mile) Handicap off a mark of 96.

At the age of five and having his eleventh start on the AW, I didn't think there was much more to know about Hughie Morrison's gelding but with the benefit of a first time visor and a canny front running ride from Darryl Holland, he produced a career-best and will be raised 7lb to 103.

Unfortunately for him, opportunities on the AW at that level will be few and far between and a return to turf must surely be imminent. He is nowhere near as effective on the grass and I have raised his turf mark just 2lb to 87 - the mark off which he was a very creditable fifth (beaten under two lengths) in the Spring Cup at Newbury last April.

As I say Holland deserves the plaudits for the ride he gave Nazreef and it was a race in which it proved impossible to make any great impact from behind - the first four home filled those same positions throughout and a number of horses deserve another chance off the marks they ran off, so any changes that weremade were nothing more than tweaks with the out of form pair of The Tichborne (-2lb to 85) and Final Drive (-3lb to 90) getting the biggest drops.

The best performance of the day belonged to Captivator in taking the Listed Betfred Mobile Sports Snowdrop Stakes.

Using well-supported runner-up Law of the Range (104) as a guide to the level of the race, I have James Fanshawe's filly running to a career-high 105; progressive when campaigned over 1m2f last season, the drop in trip seemed to suit and she is raised from her pre-race 94 to 105. It will be interesting to see if this form stands up as the season progresses and whether Captivator can transfer this improvement back on to the turf.

Next up was Mick Channon's Laugh Out Loud in the Betfred "When Both Teams Score" Stakes. Something of an unknown quantity and rated only 80 after a ten-length course-and-distance maiden victory in February, she came with a wet sail and performed to 96 in winning going away from runner-up Way Too Hot (93).

The key to the race appears to be the Hannon-trained third Esentepe who was by far the most exposed of the ten runners (having her tenth career start) and, in my book, is unlikely to have improved on her pre-race mark of 92.

Possibly the most interesting filly from the race is Godolphin's Tactfully who came from a very unpromising position to finish fourth. I'm sure Mickael Barzalona will have many fine hours during his association with the "boys in blue" but this is unlikely to be numbered amongst them. Raised from 85 to 91 for this effort, she left the impression she should be capable of better, possibly over further.

The third 100+ performance of the meeting was produced by the John Gosden-trained Eastern Sun in the Betfred "Double Delight" Stakes.

The key to the race appears to be Leqqaa (95 - third) and Lord of the Shadows (98 - fifth) pretty much running to their marks suggesting that, taking into account the ease and style of win, Eastern Sun has run to 103.

He holds an entry in the 2,000 Guineas and whilst he will have to improve another stone plus to make any sort of impact there he should pay his way this season, possible over 1m2f rather than this 1m.

Runner-up Miblish went into the race rated 78 and is judged to have improved by 19lb to 97. When making a decision like this the handicapper is always looking for good reasons as to why a horse may have shown such dramatic improvement and the crucial factor here appears to be the wearing of a tongue tie for the first time...and he is trained by Clive Brittain!!

SURPRISE SURPRISE

Post-race comments suggest Born To Surprise's dominant display in a 7f maiden at Doncaster last Sunday was anything but unexpected, writes Graeme Smith.

Sent off 7-4 favourite on the back of a second placing at Warwick on his sole juvenile outing, the imposing son of Exceed And Excel bounded clear from the penultimate furlong under hands-and-heels riding from Jamie Spencer, opening up a six-length margin prior to being eased down for a five-length success.

It's hard to be dogmatic about what he achieved with the vast majority of the field lightly raced, but previous form lines suggested I put the runner-up Star Date in on a mark around 78 and the sixth-placed Take Two on around 65.

A line through the latter at 65 put Star Date's performance at 76 - I'm happy to reason he'd have finished 2lb/one length closer had he raced in closer touch given the work he did late - and generated a bare figure of 86 for Born To Surprise.

Adding in 2lb for the length he was eased, plus an estimated 4lb for the fact he produced this performance without ever coming under maximum pressure, I arrived at a handicap mark of 92 for Born To Surprise.

A figure above 90 would make finding a handicap very difficult for Born To Surprise's trainer Michael Bell (most handicaps of that sort of value require a horse to have run three times), but it looks as though his sights are set on the Group 3 Craven Stakes in any case.

His dam, Dubai Surprise, won twice in Group 3 company and was runner-up in a Group 1, and it will come as no surprise to me if he increases his rating further still when given the opportunity to run against better horses.
 
Finian's proves class but focus remains on Sacre
The most closely-fought Grand National finish in memory is discussed fully in Phil Smith's forthcoming head of handicapping blog. However, there were plenty of other top-class races to get the teeth into on the supporting cards too, and all are covered by the remainder of the jumps team here. Furthermore, in the spirit of including something for everyone there's also a section on a listed contest from the Flat and an explanation of the changes to the rules for nurseries.

OVER THE RAINBOW

Finian's Rainbow lit up Aintree by completing the coveted Queen Mother Champion Chase- John Smith's Melling Chase double last achieved in the same season in 2005 by the mighty Moscow Flyer, writes John de Moraville.

While yet to hit the magic 180 rating attained by that Irish-trained legend, Michael Buckley's star, by routing the opposition in Friday's Grade 1 showpiece, silenced those who questioned the merit of his defeat of Sizing Europe at Cheltenham, where the final fence had to be bypassed.

Extraordinarily for a horse with his list of achievements, Finian's Rainbow is in danger of being overshadowed by his freakish novice stable-companion Sprinter Sacre (169), but he looked every inch a champion last week in running to a mark of 172+.

It was good to see Wishfull Thinking (164), whose Cheltenham fall led to that festival controversy, finally recapturing his best form of last spring andfinishing an honourable seven-lengths runner-up.

His long-suffering connections had plenty to celebrate on Thursday when another of their potentially top-class chasers, Menorah, belatedly got his act together in the Grade 1 Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase.

With Sprinter Sacre (169) in a class of his own in the 2m novice division - as he ruthlessly underlined with a bloodless 1-7 victory in Saturday's Grade 1 Maghull Chase - Menorah (162) found the slower tempo of this 2m4f (won by Wishfull Thinking a year ago) putting less strain on his hitherto fragile jumping.

Al Ferof, hot favourite for the Manifesto, was a disappointing third but his trainer Paul Nicholls had earlier unleashed one of the most improved novices of the season, Edgardo Sol, to romp away with the Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap.

Edgardo Sol's previous visit to Aintree last October had resulted in a controversial victory, by a nose, off 127. Progressive since over hurdles - he was an arguably-unlucky second in Cheltenham's County Hurdle - he ran off 143 in the Red Rum and, having turned that usually highly competitive event into a procession, has been upped a stone to 157.

Talking of improvers, he is now, coincidentally, on the same mark as the celebrated Hunt Ball though the latter did kick off the campaign on 68!

SIMON SAYS....

...I am the best novice hurdler of the season! Simonsig further enhanced his burgeoning reputation with an easy win in the John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree last Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Odds-on following his demolition of the 2m5f novice at the Cheltenham Festival, which earned him the top novice rating of 157, Simonsig treated his rivals at Aintree with the same contempt, strolling clear on the bridle to beat Super Duty (now 142) by 15 lengths. I have adjusted his rating to 161, which equals the rating achieved by Black Jack Ketchum in 2005/6, and that pair are the two highest-rated staying novice hurdlers since Iris's Gift in 2002/3. There is almost certainly more to come from Simonsig, and whether he stays hurdling or embarks on a chasing career, many more big-race successes look likely.

The only horse to have defeated Simonsig was the previously-unbeaten Fingal Bay who got the better of him at Sandown in December. Fingal Bay, who missed Cheltenham due to injury, was a hot favourite for in the Sefton Novices' over 3m at Aintree the previous day. However on this occasion the formbook didn't quite follow thescript. Lovcen, seemingly beaten fair and square behind Brindisi Breeze at Cheltenham, continued his improvement and achieved a rating of 150 (the same as Brindisi Breeze) with a one-and-three-quarter-lengths success, proving the stronger stayer of the pair despite the runner-up having looked stamina laden over shorter trips. There is a chance that Fingal Bay's pre-race rating of 153 (achieved at Sandown) flattered him, and for the time being at least he is rated 148, still his best effort other than at Sandown.

My other 2m4f+ hurdle races from Aintree resulted in déjà vu results for the Jefferson-trained pair Cape Tribulation (now 158) and Attaglance (now 155), who achieved the rare distinction of winning handicaps at both festivals and have never been better, while Big Buck's managed to beat the record for consecutive wins over jumps and won his fourth straight Liverpool Hurdle in awesome fashion. He had a straightforward task on paper which was made even easier due to mishaps to his most likely threats.

The other race in my division also had déjà vu applied, Oscar Whiskey repeating his neck victory over Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle, after neither had convinced over 3m at Cheltenham on their previous starts. The runner-up returned to his very best (164), while the winner (who ran to 165) remains on his pre-race rating of 167, at least until the handicapping teams from the UK and Ireland meet to discuss the end of season ratings in early May. The big disappointment in the race was Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby, preferred in the betting to stable companion and Cheltenham fifth Zarkandar, who ran well below his best in third. Perhaps the longer trip, or making the running, was not ideal for Rock On Ruby, but at least he got round, which is more than you can say for Zarkandar.

EXTINGUISHING THE FLAME

The four weeks between the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals resulted in some very solid novice events on Merseyside with plenty of the Cheltenham rivals crossing swords again, writes Dave Dickinson.

Triumph-winner Countrywide Flame had his colours lowered by the Alan King-trained Grumeti who hadn't helped his prospects at Prestbury Park with a couple of significant jumping errors. Grumeti took a while to get to Countrywide Flame,who himself had shown more speed than some people might have expected when going to the front on the home turn. This may not have suited him perfectly but given that he increased his superiority from Cheltenham over both Sadler's Risk and the badly-hampered Dodging Bullets, it is hard to conclude that he has run below that winning form. Consequently I have used him as my benchmark and raised Grumeti 5lb to 153, making him currently the top-rated juvenile.

Friday's Grade 2 Novice Hurdle suggests the Supreme-second Darlan probably also improved from Cheltenham. Three of those behind him that day, Prospect Wells, Vulcanite and Agent Archie, were further behind him here and his new rating of 151 - arrived at using the 134-rated Vulcanite as a benchmark - puts him on the same mark as his Cheltenham conqueror Cinders and Ashes.

FIGHT OR FLIGHT

A decent-looking renewal of the listed Further Flight Stakes was won by the Clive Cox-trained Electrolyser, who had failed to make much of an impact in a couple of hot races in Dubai but found this more to his liking, dictatingas he liked and putting things to bed when quickening 3f out, writes Stephen Hindle.

In 2011, The Betchworth Kid failed to win subsequently after taking Nottingham's 1m6f contest, but this year's renewal looks stronger with some proven Group horses in behind the winner.

Electrolyser himself has run well in Group races in the past, having finished second in the 2010 Goodwood Cup, and he appears to have run to his 109 rating considering he finished two lengths to the good over Zuider Zee, who obtained his mark of 105 when winning the November Handicap and confirmed it with a third in listed company in France on his final start in 2011.

Fifth-placed Solar Sky, sixth-placed Eternal Heart and the seventh, Parlour Games, all seem to have run close to form and help give the race a solid enough look. Dandino was a bit below his 112 rating in third and may prove best back at shorter, whilst Blue Bajan also ran below par in fourth butconsidering neither had run for at least seven months they ran respectably. Nevertheless, I moved them to 110 and 109 respectively.

Time will tell if Electrolyser can better The Betchworth Kid in winning another race this season, but it's fair to say he's worthy of his 6lb rise and he should be up to making an impact in a similar or higher grade, particularly when able to dominate.

NURSERY NEWS

How horses qualify fornursery handicaps is something we have tried to make simpler and fairer over the years, writes Matthew Tester.

All sorts of restrictions have been taken away and we have now taken another step along that path, which trainers ought to be aware of.

The key change is help for once-raced winners. As from this year, they may be able to go straight for nurseries which had previously not been open to them.

The rules now state that we can let into nurseries any once-raced winner rated 80 or below and any twice-raced winner rated 85 or below. This is always as long as we feel there is enough evidence on which to make those judgements. As before, only form shown in this country countsfor qualification purposes although overseas runs will always be assessed.

We hope that this will help trainers whose horses win on their debut and for whom it has been tough to find a race where the horse can run competitively next time.

Readers can check out new rule 32.2 here.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
LAST Saturday Merigo showed his aptitude for Ayr racecourse by recording his fifth course victory and his third consecutive placing in Scotland's biggest race, the Coral Scottish Grand National. Merigo ended last season on a rating of 141 based on his second in last year's contest, beaten three-quarters of a length by Beshabar when running off 142 from 12lb out of the handicap.

He was beaten over 60 lengths on his reappearance at Haydock and then over 70 lengths at Kelso. I dropped him a pound for his first poor run and 2lb for his second poor run, whereupon he ran even worse at Wetherby off 138 and was beaten over 80 lengths. I now dropped him by 5lb to 133 and at Doncaster in January he finished 12th in the Skybet Chase still beaten around 40 lengths. This was his best run so far this season but he was still not getting competitive.

I now dropped him to 129. Even though this was 13lb lower than the mark he had run off at Ayr in April it was only a pound lower than his rating of 130 from that day (ran 12lb out of the handicap) and his previous highest winning mark was 127.

Connections found a weak handicap back at his belovedAyr and he won narrowly as the 11-1 outsider of six. The subsequent poor form of his opponents that day made his new mark of 134 look perhaps a little high, but faced with April sunshine and 4m at Ayr, Merigo battled tenaciously up the straight to just outlast Auroras Encore by a head.

"You put them up quick enough but you never drop them that quick," is a phrase often quoted at us by disgruntled connections. The handicapping of Merigo seems to put that nonsense to bed quite quickly. What was particularly pleasing was that both Merigo and Auroras Encore had won their last race showing that you can win or run well in a big handicap having run well the time before. Merigo is now back to 142, the mark connections ran him off in last year's renewal.

There are some races and tracks where I never seem to get agood finish but the Scottish Grand National has been a lucky race for my professional pride. A head this year, three-quarters of a length and a neck last year, half a length in 2009, 2007 and 2006. In 2005 the winning distance was a short head and in 2003 a neck. In 2002 the first four finishers were separated by just over two lengths.

At Aintree in the John Smith's Grand National, the first four, Neptune Collonges, Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu had also all run really well in their prep race for the big one. A year ago I had been accused by a journalist of encouraging horses not to run to protect their marksfor the Grand National. The first four this year had run a total of 16 times between them before the big day.

Just like Merigo, Neptune had come down in the ratings since the end of last season. He had pulled up in the Hennessy in November off 168 carrying top weight, trying to do a Denman and I dropped him to 161. His form had tailed off a little in 2010-11 and 161 was a rating he had won off in a handicap back in 2008.

He ran a good race in the Silver Cup at Ascot to finish fourth in December again carrying top weight to be beaten just over 8 lengths and I dropped him to 159 off which he ran another good race to be second to Hold On Julio at Sandown but beaten 9 lengths and again carrying top weight. Neptune Collonges' performance figure in both of these races was 157 and when I compressed the top weights for the John Smith's Grand National it fitted neatly to have him on 157.

He then ran in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. Those attending that day will have seen four Cheltenham Festival winners and the John Smith's Grand National winner so put the date in your diary for next year.

Surprise, surprise he was carrying top weight again off a mark of 159 and just failed to reel in Giles Cross giving the strong impression that at the age of 11 he now needed a bit further than 3 miles if he was to win. At Aintree he was technically 5lb well in as his new mark after Haydock was 162.

Neptune Collonges was on 11st 6lb at Aintree, the highest weight a winner has carried since Red Rum's third victory in 1977. It seemed sensible after the race to put the now retired Neptune Collonges back to 168 from the 157 he ran off, especially as Sunnyhillboy ran off 142 in the race but was due to go to 152 after his Cheltenham Festival victory.

I took the view that Sunnyhillboy had replicated his Cheltenham run in the Grand National so as he was due to go up 10lbs. Neptune Collonges' final rating will be 157+11=168. This is the highest rating a Grand National runner has achieved since Suny Bay was second to Earth Summit off 170 back in 1998.

So we have had two 11-year-old Grand National winners on successive Saturdays, both of whom had been dropped to keep them competitive as they grew older and both of whom had run well in their prep race for the big day. It is good for racing that old favourites like Merigo and Neptune Collonges, who had nine previous runs between them this season, can still win major races and in my view it is a ringing endorsement of the current handicapping system, especially as both races produced cracking finishes, a head and a nose.
 
With its proximity to the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown festivals, Sandown’s Celebration Chase has tended to suffer from a touch of ‘After the Lord Mayor’s Show’ syndrome. Not this year, writes John de Moraville.

Saturday’s Grade 2 showdown, inaugurated in 2001 after Cheltenham’s Queen Mother Champion Chase was a victim of the foot-and-mouth crisis, produceda star of its own in Sanctuaire, a six-year-old novice having only his third start over fences.

He was a talented but temperamental 150-rated hurdler whose victories included the Scottish Champion and the Fred Winter.

Sanctuaire, who had pulled hard in the past and given trouble at the start, seemingly relished his new front-running chase tactics. Unchallenged winner of his two previous outings, he again blasted off in front and, jumping from fence to fence, had his far more experienced rivals on the rack by half-way.

Never in danger of defeat, Sanctuaire hammered Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby (166) by 17 lengths with Dan Breen (148) finishing a creditable third. While Somersby and the majority of Saturday’s field failed to give their true running, a line through Dan Breen, who had also run to 148 in winning a course and distance novice chase (subsequently disqualified) on similar going last season, gives Sanctuaire a chase rating of 167.

That mark - just 2lb below brilliant Arkle hero Sprinter Sacre - may well flatter him and is sure to provoke a heated debate at next week’s Anglo-Irish Classifications meeting. But one thing is certain, on a front-runner’s track like Sandown, Sanctuaire is an extremely potent force. Unsurprisingly, he is due to return to the Surrey circuit in December for the Tingle Creek.

LASS VEGA

Most of us knew she had it in her, and at last Quevega was given an opportunity to post a 160+ performance, writes Martin Greenwood.

There has never been any doubt that Quevega is a mare with tremendous talent, but usually she faces more or less straightforward tasks on the figures, especially in the mares race at Cheltenham, and given she receives the 7lb mares allowance in open company, it has been difficult to justify anything other than marks in the high 150s over the last few years.

In winning her third straight Ladbrokes.com World Series Hurdle at a very wet Punchestown last week, Quevega finally broke through the 160 barrier with a convincing five and a half-length victory over Cheltenham World Hurdle runner-up and another ubermare, Voler La Vedette, with Mourad another four and a half lengths further back in third. Both mares entered the closing stages tanking along but Quevega soon put the contest to bed, and recorded her sixth consecutive win in the process. Quevega beat the 160-rated Mourad by just over alength in 2011, but her 2012 ten-length beating of the same horse means a career best figure of 163 for the mare.

The obvious question is would Quevega manage to beat Big Buck’s? In my opinion, the match will probably never happen. Ruby Walsh is far too clever to put two of his best mounts in the same race together! With Quevega’s allowance added to her new rating it would be a 174 to 170 clash in favour of Big Buck’s on my ratings. There is no doubt thatQuevega is probably capable of better if given the opportunity to prove it, but I still think that comment applies to Big Buck’s as well! It would be a fantastic race to savour if it ever materialises. And the result? I think Big Buck’s would emerge the winner.

HEAVY GROUND FORM

Life as a handicapper can be tricky enough as it is but when the weather intervenes in the way that is has over the last week or so then it can become particularly difficult, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

I must have had half a dozen people come up to me over the course of Sandown’s two day meeting last Friday and Saturday asking, “How do you guys work things out when the ground is like this?” The answer is to try and be sensible, realise that these races are being run in exceptional conditions where the ability to act in the ground is probably as important (if not more) as handicapping and try not to overreact.

A classic example of this was the Poker at Bet365.Com Handicap at Sandown on Saturday. The race cut up to just four runners with the final distances being ½ a length, nineteen lengthsand thirty five lengths – being beaten so far, the third and the fourth give no guide to the level of the race so I realistically only had the first two to work with.

The runner up Sam Sharp had scored off 82 last May but had struggled subsequently and was racing off 83 on Saturday – although only beaten half a length in a £12,500 handicap I have left him on that mark of 83 and raised the winner Weapon of Choice by just a pound to a new mark of 90. This represents a career high for Stuart Kittow’s gelding and it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce, or better it, back on a faster surface in a more competitive race – only time will tell.

The same can be said for John Berry’s Silken Thoughts who ran away with the Casino at Bet365.Com Flat v Jump Jockeys Handicap off a mark of 77. Progressive towards the back end of last season when winning two of her last three races, the filly was always travelling well in the mud and only needed to be pushed out to land the race by four lengths. Given her profile and the manner of her success I would normally have called her value for a five length victory on better ground and put her up 10lb but on this occasionI have just put her up the eight to 85 and left both the runner up and the third on the same marks they ran off.

My best quality race of the week over a mile took place twenty four hours earlier at the Esher venue when David O’Meara’s mud lover Penitent landed the Group 2 Bet365 Mile. The second bottom rated horse on 108 going into the race he stayed on dourly up the hill to see off Earl of Sefton winner Questioning by a length and three quarters with eight lengths and more back to the other four runners. Again the suspicion is that his victory owed more to his ability to keep galloping in the ground but he is now two from two since joining O’Meara and, until subsequent form proves otherwise, I have to give him credit for the performance. I have left Questioning on his pre-race 114 and moved Penitent to a career high 116 – once again it will be interesting to see if that figure can be reproduced on better ground in the summer.

It is now almost a year since Frankel confirmed himself a superstar with his blistering 2000 Guineas victory – still one of the most visually stunning performances I have ever witnessed and all roads lead to Newmarket on Saturday to see if this year’s crop of three year olds contain any pretenders to his crown.

At this stage the Irish look to hold a strong hand ratings wise with the top three rated horses in the race – Racing Post Trophy winner and joint top rated juvenile of 2011 Camelot (O’Brien) leading the way on 119 by a couple of pounds from stable companion Power and the Jim Bolgertrained Dewhurst winner Parish Hall on 117.

Let’s hope the rain goes away and the best horse on the day wins!

ANOTHER BIG WIN FOR AN ELEVEN YEAR OLD

“You never give the older horses a chance in the big handicaps”, is just another hackneyed old phrase that we hear all the time. After the results of the three big staying handicap chases of the last three Saturdays, perhaps we might hear ita little less in the future, hopes Phil Smith.

At Sandown, Tidal Bay became the third eleven year old to win a big handicap following the successes of Neptune Collonges and Merigo at Aintree and Ayr. Neptune Collonges started the season on 168 and won the John Smith’s Grand National off 157, Merigo began 2011-12 on 141 and won the Coral Scottish Grand National off 134.

Graham Wylie’s veteran began the season on 166 and afterfinishing second in the Argento Cotswold Chase getting weight from Midnight Chase, my colleague Stephen Hindle dropped him 9lbs. to 157. This was a brave but correct decision. He then finished last of five in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury and I dropped him a further 3lbs to 154.

Following a respectable run when badly hampered behind Big Buck’s at Liverpool over hurdles, Tidal Bay was set to carry top weight of 11st12lbs on Saturday. As a result he has become the highest winning weight carrier in the Bet365 Gold Cup and all of its previous incarnations since The Dikler carried 11st13lbs to victory in 1974.

So when was the last time three eleven year olds won our three premier end of season staying handicap chases in the same season? The answer is it has never happened! The Bet365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was introduced in 1957 so it has not happened in 55 renewals. Feeling pleased with myself I mentioned it to a caller yesterday. “It’s because you have the young horses too high," he responded. You just can’t win as a handicapper.

These three old timers had dropped a total of 30lbs in five months but all had run well in their last run before their bigwin. A £10 treble on them would have netted an intrepid follower of these old guys £28,900!
 
Camelot comes to the table and should improve
The hype and the subsequent performance might not have been of Frankel proportions but Camelot justified his position as joint-top two-year-old of 2011 and pleased every headline writer in the land when landing the Qipco 2,000 Guineas in thrilling style at Newmarket on Saturday writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Sticky ground and the fact that the field split into three groups for most of the race doesn't really help in terms of feeling 100 per cent confident about the figures I have put on the race but I have gone with 121 for the winner (up 2lbs from his two-year-old mark). This leads to 120 for the runner-up French Fifteen (up 5lbs from his pre-race rating) and 116 for the third placed Hermival (also up 5lbs).

This places Camelot at the lower end of recent Guineas winning performances with only Refuse To Bend (116 in 2003), Footstepsinthesand (116 in 2005) and Cockney Rebel (120 in 2007) being rated lower in the last ten years. However, George Washington (2006) and Henrythenavigator (2008) are rated on a par and they didn't do too badly subsequently.

I fully expect Aidan O'Brien's son of Montjeu to go onwards and upwards from here. He made up a deal of ground from the rear and will almost certainly be seen to better effect over further. He will take a world of beating in the Derby and I suspect this is the first and last time that I, as mile handicapper, will get the chance to assess him.

Second place French Fifteen (120) deserves credit as his figure is the joint best (with New Approach in 2008) performance by a runner-up in the race for the last ten years, while Hermival's 116 places him on a par with other third-placed colts Redback (2002), Azamour (2004) and Native Khan last year.

With hindsight I suspect I might have overreacted a little to Trumpet Major's victory in a weaklooking Craven and I believe he performed to his Dewhurst level of 114 on Saturday in finishing fourth. It would have been possible to rate the race a couple of pounds higher through his pre-race rating of 116 from the Craven but I am mindful of the apparent improvement shown by his stable mate Coup De Ville (fifth and up 9lbs to 114) and Ptolemaic (seventh and up 13lbs to 109) and believe their proximity acts as a limiting factor to the form.

Interestingly both fifth and seventh raced in the group of four on the far rail which also contained Hermival and I have a sneaking suspicion that they had an advantage of sorts so we will see if they can reproduce these figures in future.

Being made to look something of a fool every now and then comes with the territory as an official handicapper and while I was enjoying Camelot, Godolphin's Farhh was inflicting one of those moments on me in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He raced off a mark of 100 and won by an easy six lengths at 5-4 favourite in what was supposed to be one of the most competitive 1m handicaps of the season so far.

When these situations occur I always go back through the winner's previous form to check if there is anything I could or should have done differently. My conscience is clear on this one as I had put him up 10lbs for winning at Newmarket last October by two and a half lengths and this was just a case of a lightly raced improver who had progressed further through the winter. A rise of 14lbs to 114 will end his days in handicaps and it will be interesting to see how far he can go in Pattern Races.

BEST EVER ON THE ALL-WEATHER

The decision to switch Ascot's abandoned cardon Wednesday to Kempton paid dividends with two of the best winning performances ever seen on British all-weather tracks.

Roger Varian's Sri Putra took on some of the best in Europe last year and he enjoyed the drop in class when taking the Listed Paradise Stakes by a nose from Saamidd. In reproducing his 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings rating figure of 115 he put up the joint-third best performance ever on the all-weather, bettered only by Kirklees (116in 2009) and Echo Of Light (116 in 2006).

Forty minutes later that had become the joint-fourth best ever performance as the ex-Mark Johnston stayer Colour Vision came from last to first, when smashing the course record in the Group 3 Blue Square Levy Board Sagaro Stakes explains Stephen Hindle.

Colour Vision had some pretty useful form last season, which culminated in a third behind Fame And Glory in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot, however this was a step up on his first start for Saeed Bin Suroor. The ultra-consistent Red Cadeaux sets a good standard and despite suspicions that Colour Vision may be flattered slightly due to the fact that he sat well off the very fast pace set by Electrolyser, I felt happiest with a mark of 116 which puts him above his beaten rivals here and on a par with other top stayers such as Opinion Poll who finished upsides him in the Doncaster Cup last year.

The only other rating I changed was Barbican's whom I dropped 1lb back to 109 as he has now run below his best in two starts since winning a Listed event at Kempton in good style back in November. The Ascot Gold Cup could well be on the agenda for Colour Vision and on this evidence he would certainly have place claims at least if he could transfer his polytrack form back to the turf.

Red Cadeaux reportedly has another crack at the Melbourne Cup on his timetable, but in the short term could turn out inthe Yorkshire Cup.

TOP WORK BY THE BHA RACING DEPARTMENT

The hard work put in by the BHA Racing Department in rearranging Ascot's flooded off fixture to Kempton saved what turned out tobe an above-average renewal of the the Blue Square Ascot Pavilion Stakes says Stewart Copeland.

It looked a strong race beforehand as the average winning rating of the race over the last decade has been 106 and three of the field had already surpassed that level beforehand.
Indeed those three fought out the finish with the admirable Gusto trained by Richard Hannon claiming his third Listed success this year and his fourth in total.

The race itself was a somewhat messy affair as a modest early gallop meant a position close to the pace was probably crucial. Gusto was well positioned throughout and despite being headed a furlong out by Bannock, he dug deep and rallied in fine style, coming home just under a length clear of that rival.

Rated 110 going into the race, Gusto's defeat of the 109-rated Bannock at level weights is worth 111 thus giving a minor adjustment to his rating as I believe Bannock replicated his fine effort of 109 in the European Free Handicap.

However it is worth highlighting the run of the third, Burwaaz, given that little went right for him on the day. Too keen early off the modest pace, he then suffered trouble in running in the straight, before finishing strongly into third.

It was an even more meritorious performance when you consider that the bit slipped through his mouth which hardly helped his cause.

Burwaaz was rated 109 after some excellent efforts in Pattern races as a two-year-old. Although his performance at Kempton was only 104, he looks sure to be capable of 109 or better later in the season. As for Gusto he is reportedly being aimed at the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. As he has already shown winning form at seven furlongs this season, it seems a logical target to aim him at.

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Wide-open Swinton asight worth savouring.

My Saturday morning started by researching the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (formerly the Swinton), writes Dave Dickinson.

One of our aims is competitive betting in handicaps, so one look at Page 73 of the Racing Post on Saturday and my face must have looked like something purchased from 'Smug Handicappers R Us'.

In one of the bookmakers adverts for the race there were ten 12-1 co- favourites from the 20 runners and only one horse was quoted at longer than 20-1!

Now I am sure it was a marketing ploy by the Magic Sign but days like these don't come by in the handicapping world that often. So, a mental note to self: keep page 73 in good nick and remember to buy a picture frame for the office wall next week.

In the event punters latched on to Tom Segal's Pricewise selection, Red Merlin, and he won very tidily by a long looking two and a half lengths. I felt the winning margin was worth five pounds and using Petit Robin and Conquisto as my markers, I have raised the winner eight pounds to 143.

Not the closest of finishes sadly, but there were two pieces of good news. Firstly, it was a closer finish than last year's renewal (then again so was the Grand National, the London Marathon and probably the Paris-Dakar rally). Secondly, I should save a few pounds on that picture frame as I can't afford one big enough to include a photo of the finish!

QUEEN COMES HOME FASTER THAN THE REST

As I watched Homecoming Queen stroll home in last Sunday's Qipco 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket by the longest winning margin in the race since 1859 my immediate reaction was, "what the hell am I going to do with that?", writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

She was having her 14th career start and was the most experienced and apparently most exposed runner in the contest. She had a pre-race rating of 106 which would have failed to get her into the first three in any of the previous ten renewals of the race and went off a relatively unconsidered 25-1 shot - and yet she bolted in by nine lengths!

The first point to make is that a number of the more fancied fillies blatantly failed to run their race. The O'Brien first string Maybe (ten lengths behind in third) cannot have run to her pre-race mark of 116, whilst other fancied contenders such as Lightening Pearl (111), Moonstone Magic (106), Discourse (109) and Lyric of Light (112) were probablycaught out either by the ground or the half-hour delay caused by the fatal injury to Gray Pearl - or a combination of both.

The key to the race appears to lie with Lily's Angel (seventh) and Laugh Out Loud (eighth). I have Richard Fahey's filly reproducing the 98 she ran when third in the Nell Gwyn, suggesting that the Channon filly has stepped up a couple of pounds from her pre-race 96 in finishing a short head behind. Building up through the field, thismeans that sixth placed Alla Speranza has run to 99, just 2lb off her pre-race rating of 101 - all neat enough under the circumstances!

Given the ground I have called the nine lengths winning distance 16lbs which results in HomecomingQueen running to a mark of 120 - the best winning performance in the last ten years (bettering Finsceal Beo's 119 in 2007) and on a par with Cape Verdi's 120 performance in the 1998 renewal.

It does however mean that in running to 104and 102, runner-up Starscope and third placed Maybe have posted the lowest rated performances to fill those positions in a very long time - certainly within the previous ten years. Maids Causeway (108 when second in 2005), Vista Bella (107 when third in 2005) and Nasheej (107 when third in 2006) had previously held that "distinction".

Do I believe Homecoming Queen's performance? She is certainly a tough filly who has an engine but perhaps it is significant that only she and the runner-up of the first six home had had a previous outing this season, while both my benchmarks for the race (Lily's Angel and Laugh Out Loud) had also enjoyed a pipe opener. Having had a long talk with Turf Club handicapper Garry O'Gorman we agreed we had to give her credit for the performance in the short term and see what the rest of the season brings.

MCCAIN AGAIN

The Chester Cup proved to be a race to remember for Donald McCain,who trained the first two home, though few would argue the real fairy tale would have come about if the pair had finished the other way round. The runner-up Overturn was attempting to follow up his win in the race the previous year off joint top weight and a 7lb higher mark, writes Stephen Hindle.

After setting a good pace and stringing the field out all over the Roodeye on the final circuit, it looked as if Overturn could well overcome his weight burden, but stablemate Ile De Re eventually wore him down. Both the winner and second had been running over hurdles: Ile De Re had been beaten off a mark of 124 at Sandown in March, while Overturn of course, had finished second in the Champion Hurdle a few days later, earning the lofty rating of 166.

The task of conceding 13lbs to Ile De Re on the Flat proved too much for Overturn with Ile De Re returning to the sort of formwhich saw him placed in Listed company in France. As is usually the case with such a prestigious and valuable handicap, I wanted to take a positive view of the form. As the first two pulled five lengths clear of Gulf of Naples, a very progressive four year old due to race off a 7lb higher mark in the future, I could have gone much higher with the front pair.

However I felt the good pace and testing ground were large contributing factors in the field finishing so well strung out, so I didn't want to go overboard. Ile De Re was running off a mark of 93, and I felt anything less than 101 would be kind considering the runner-up was running off 106 and the third was due to go up 7lb.

I raised Overturn by 6lb to 112, calling the length and three quarters a standard 2lb. Gulf of Naples didn't quite run to his new rating of 108 from his win at Ripon, but I felt it was a decent run all the same and left his future mark unchanged.

Due to the soft ground the race was started by flag and what seemed a good draw for the previously progressive Shubaat turned into a poor one when he missed the break, and he was always behind. The early jostling didn't do fourth-placed Eternal Heart any favours either. He was beaten almost twenty lengths but considering the fact he likes to race up with the pace it was by no means a poor effort.

The Group 3 Ormonde Stakes suffered from a poor turnout and was made less interesting with the withdrawal of last year's Great Voltigeur winner and Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up Sea Moon.

Only four went to post and one of those was a previously unraced gelding. The two that dominated the betting were last year's Irish Derby third Memphis Tennessee, and the St Leger runner-up Brown Panther. Unfortunately, Brown Panther disappointed badly, trailing home a well-beaten last, and Memphis Tennessee was left with a fairly simple task, not needing to run to his 117 rating.

Memphis Tennessee doesn't carry the sort of hype that many trained at Ballydoyle do, but he's a colt with a lot of ability and is a reliable individual who has earned his mark from good placed runs in last year's British and Irish Derbys.
 
Fabulous Frankel earns career-best figure

IT'S quite a responsibility assessing a performance that might be the best seen on a racetrack anywhere in the world for 25 years, confesses Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

The internationalisation of racing has led to all the major racing nations (bar South America for the moment) being represented on the World Rankings Committee, so you have to be pretty damn sure you have seen something very special before making such a bold decision.

After hours of thought and several viewings of Saturday's JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury I'm as confident as I can be that Frankel fully deserves his new mark of 138 - a rating that places himabove such modern greats as Peintre Celebre and Generous (137 in 1991 and 1997 respectively), Sea The Stars (136 in 2009) and a heap of horses on 135, including Harbinger (2010), Montjeu and Daylami (both 1999).

In fact, since 1985, only Dancing Brave's 141 in the Arc of 1986 betters his figure and it has been openly stated that the level of the World Thoroughbred Rankings (or International Classifications as they were previously known) have dropped a few pounds since those days.

My rationale is clear. Last year Frankel beat Excelebration three times, twice by four lengths (in the Greenham and in the QEII) and yet on Saturday he had extended that superiority to five lengths. In last year's 2,000 Guineas Frankel beat Dubawi Gold by six lengths and in the QEII Richard Hannon's colt was a respectful seven and three-quarter lengths behind in fourth - on Saturday he was beaten a total of nine lengths into third.

A beating of either of those on their own could have left the Lockinge form open to question, but the fact is that there was three and three quarter lengths between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold at Ascot and four lengths between them at Newbury - suggesting they hadreplicated their form to the pound. Both were race fit and yet Frankel extended his advantage over them - to my mind that suggests this was his best ever performance and that has to be reflected in his rating. Hence 138!

The Wworld Rankings Committee has been criticised in the past for possibly overreacting to "one off" performances. There is no danger of that in the case of Frankel - his career record is now ten from ten, he has posted four 130+ performances to date (with the promise of more to come) and has won his Group 1 races by six lengths, three-quarters of a length, five lengths, four lengths and now five lengths.

The truth is that we don't really know how good this fellow is (and the same goes for Australian superstar Black Caviar) and it may well be that only the lack of world class opposition will stop him from breaking the 140 barrier - as such I feel we should take advantage of a fully justifiable form line that allows us to give him as much credit as possible.

One last aspect of Saturday's race that I feel is worth a mention. The plaudits rightly went the way of Messers Cecil and Queally, but spare a thought and applaud the part Ian Mongan played aboard pacemaker Bullet Train. Little went right last season in his efforts to help his illustrious stable companion, but he got it spot on at Newbury and Frankel got the lead he was seeking for much of last season - I believe this was a vital factor in Frankel putting up the performance he did. Conversely, quite what part Coolmore's pacemaker Windsor Palace was supposed to play in the contest I'm still trying to work out.

THE GRAND OLD DUKE OF YORK

Last week's Group 2 6f Duke of York Stakes on the Knavesmire was billed as the battle of North Yorkshire, with the front two in the market, Hoof It and Mayson, expected to battle out the finish, enthuses Stewart Copeland.

However, it was their unconsidered fellow ‘Tyke' Tiddliwinks, trained by Kevin Ryan, who triumphed for the White Rose County instead. Third in last year's renewal when running to a mark of 108, he showed himself to be better than ever with a head defeat of The Cheka, with a somewhat unlucky-in-running Society Rock a neck further back in third.

In recent times the average winning rating for the Duke Of York has been around 112, and I had to consider whether Tiddliwinks was at least worthy of such a rating. On balance I feel he is for now, which means I took the view also that The Cheka had put up a marginally best career effort. Unexposed at sprint trips, he seems to have relished the drop back to six furlongs this season, and he's been credited with a mark of 111.

As for Society Rock, he ran a highly creditable first race of the year, recording a mark of 110. I'm happy to leave him at 117, and he'll head for his favourite stomping ground of Ascot in an attempt to repeat his Golden Jubilee success at the Royal meeting. However, looking ahead to that race, on this evidence they'll all be fighting for second place if a peak form Black Caviar turns up. The brilliant mare is currently rated 132, which puts into stark perspective the gulf between her and the pick of the home contingent.

Going back to the two favourites, a line can be put through Mayson's disappointing run, having got upset at the stalls; he was reported to be never travelling. He remains on 110, and having been such a progressive sort this year, hopefully he'll put this quickly behind him. Hoof It also remains on his current rating of 118, though he only ran to 101 in finishing fifth. It was a somewhat sluggish start to his season, from some way out he was clearly struggling togo the pace and never looking like landing a blow. He was subsequently reported to be coughing though, and it's far too soon to be writing him off.

YORKSHIRE CUP A GIFT FOR CADEAUX

Red Cadeaux gained reward for many excellent placed efforts when winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup, states Stephen Hindle.

It was his first win for almost a year but he'd run some cracking races in between, notably when touched off in the Melbourne Cup in November.

Ed Dunlop's six-year-old is tremendously consistent, to the point where I have him running to within a couple of pounds of his rating on his last five starts, but this was arguably his best effort yet.

I toyed with the idea of leaving him on 115, particularly as the second, Glen's Diamond, raisesquestions as to how good the form is having entered the race with a rating of 106.

In the end, however, I felt 116 was a more appropriate mark. It ties in with last year's renewal, as 116 is the mark Duncan ended up on, while itmeans Red Cadeaux is now rated 1lb higher than the third, Harris Tweed. Glen's Diamond goes up to 113.

In raising Red Cadeaux to 116 I felt it pertinent to raise Colour Vision, who defeated Red Cadeaux at Kempton earlier in May,to 117. A typical stepping stone from here would be the Gold Cup at Ascot but, unlike Colour Vision, Red Cadeaux is not entered in that contest. His current entries are in mile and a half races, namely the Coronation Cup at Epsom and Hardwicke Stakesat Royal Ascot.
 
Lockinge
BHC 142 Frankel 132 Excelebration 124 Dubawi Gold 118 Bullet Train 104 Ransom Note 100 Windsor Palace
OHC 138 Frankel 126 Excelebration 117 Dubawi Gold 111 Bullet Train 113 Ransom Note 104 Windsor Palace


Yorkshire Cup
BHC 120 Red Cadeaux 119 Glen's Diamond 117 Harris Tweed 113 Times Up 111 Electrolyser 105 Blue Bajan
OHC 116 Red Cadeaux 113 Glen's Diamond 115 Harris Tweed 111 Times Up 109 Electrolyser 103 Blue Bajan


Duke Of York
BHC 114 Tiddliwinks 113 The Cheka 113 Society Rock 112 Bogart 101 Hoof It 100 Soul 95 Restiadargent 90 Doncaster Rover 80 Elnawin 79 Sirius Prospect 66 Bannock
OHC 112 Tiddliwinks 111 The Cheka 117 Society Rock 110 Bogart 118 Hoof It 111 Soul 95 Restiadargent 105 Doncaster Rover 110 Elnawin 107 Sirius Prospect 109 Bannock
 
My rationale is clear. Last year Frankel beat Excelebration three times, twice by four lengths (in the Greenham and in the QEII) and yet on Saturday he had extended that superiority to five lengths. In last year's 2,000 Guineas Frankel beat Dubawi Gold by six lengths and in the QEII Richard Hannon's colt was a respectful seven and three-quarter lengths behind in fourth - on Saturday he was beaten a total of nine lengths into third.

A beating of either of those on their own could have left the Lockinge form open to question, but the fact is that there was three and three quarter lengths between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold at Ascot and four lengths between them at Newbury - suggesting they hadreplicated their form to the pound. Both were race fit and yet Frankel extended his advantage over them - to my mind that suggests this was his best ever performance and that has to be reflected in his rating. Hence 138!

Notwithstanding the fact that Dubawi Gold ran a stinker on his only other outing this season and was very much his stable's 2nd string - or that Bullet Train replicated his previous form to the ounce?
 
Here is what I think.

Excelebration may be capable of a run to around 130. But the conditions for him to do so weren't there on Saturday. Predominately because of the pace, but also because of the moist ground. So I would say mid-120's.

Dubawi Gold is muck.
 
Bated Breath shows his class over minimum trip.

The most prestigious 5f race of the season so far, the Group 2 Temple Stakes, was run at Haydock on Saturday and it looked a decent renewal, writes Chris Nash.

Bated Breath beat Sole Power by a neck with a further three and a half lengths back to Spirit Quartz and Borderlescott. The winner went into the race as the highest rated on a mark of 118 which he achieved when placing in both the July Cup and the Haydock Park (Betfred) Sprint last year.

Both of those races were over 6f but he showed on Saturday that he does not lack for pace over the minimum trip as he set a new track record time. The second is a solid performer over 5f on quick ground having won the 2010 Nunthorpe and the 2011 Temple in such conditions. He ran to 115 when winning this race last year and arrived here with that same rating intact. I have no reason to believe that he hasn’t run the same race again.

As a result I have the winner running to 116 – a shade below his very best form but a very decent figure for his first start of the year. This level also fits really well with the third and fourth who arrived rated 106 and 105 respectively and in finishing only a head apart would both have run very close to their official marks.

The winner may well stick to 5f next time out with the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot mentioned as his likeliest next race, thereby avoiding a clash with Black Caviar who is probably to be seen in the 6f Diamond Jubilee at the Royal meeting.

One would imagine that Sole Power would also show up in the King’s Stand and provide one of the biggest threats to Bated Breath again.

A FEAST OF EUROPEAN STAYING LISTED RACES

There were three staying division Listed races in three separate countries during our last handicapping week, writes Stephen Hindle.

The first of them was in Ireland, Navan’s Vintage Crop Stakes which saw the return to action of none other than Fame And Glory, who was winning the race for the second year in succession.

Much like in 2011, Fame And Glory prevailed by a fairly narrow margin, scoring by a neck this time around having won by half a length twelve months earlier. While I did have Fame And Glory running a few pounds below his best, this was by no means a shaky return to action for the Gold Cup winner as he was giving 10lb to the second, Unaccompanied, a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and successful in Listed company on the Flat.

At the line Fame And Glory appeared to have a bit in hand with the 1m6f trip possibly a little on the short side nowadays. I went with a performance figure of 116. Which is 4lbs. lower than the one I credited him with in the 2011 Gold Cup.

Six days later at York, Cavalryman gained a deserved success in the Stowe Family Law LLP Grand Cup. Rated 113, Cavalryman clearly retains plenty of his old ability, yet amazingly this was his first victory since the 2009 Prix Niel at Longchamp.

Runner-up Calico Cat confirmed himself a very useful gelding on only his third career start and has now been placed in lofty company twice already. However, it is hard to believe Cavalryman has improved and I eventually went with 111 for him, which tallies with his most recent runs in Dubai and France. I left his official mark on 113 though, as there are also reasons for thinking he could still be up to that level.
Calico Cat is clearly a seriously talented young stayer and goes to 108.

The other Listed race over a staying trip in Europe was in Italy, Caudillo scoring for the second time in similar company at San Siro. Whilst seemingly not quite at the same sort of level as Fame And Glory or Cavalryman, I had Caudillo running to a more than respectable 108.

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It’s well documented that Epsom is a unique track and both Pattern races over the extended 1m on Friday’s card saw a horse with proven ability on those gradients run above what might have been expected, writes Graeme Smith.

The first of those two contests, the Group 3 Investec Princess Elizabeth Stakes, saw last year’s third Clinical surpass no fewer than four fillies with higher pre-race ratings as she gained her first pattern success. Sir Mark Prescott’s three-times listed winner is relatively lightly raced and undoubtedly improved to some extent on her 103-rating so I arrived at a new mark of 109 for her.

It is fair to say that the pre-race ratings of Joviality (109), Barefoot Lady (108), Navarra Queen (rated 106 in Germany) and Lay Time (109) indicated a higher level than I eventually went with – 109 on the winner has all four of them below their best – but I felt a degree of caution was prudent, particularly with the historical standards for the race suggesting a rating of 107.

On top of that, runner-up Joviality was far from at home on the camber for my money (she hung badly) and I couldn’t be sure the result wouldn’t have been different if she’d kept straight. Given current evidence, I’m happy to rate Clinical and Joviality as equals for now and see what plays out in the Windsor Forest.

The Group 3 Investec Diomed Stakes later on the card is another race I’d probably have rated slightly higher without the presence of a track specialist in the frame – in this case the eleven-year-old Mac Love.

Mac Love won the Diomed back in 2009 but his form in two subsequent campaigns had seen his mark slide back to 100, and away from this specialist track I wouldn’t be confident he’d continue his revival. Race standards suggested a figure around 111, and while that had the front two, Side Glance (113) and Dance And Dance (110), running below their marks I felt that was the easiest level to justify. It filters down to a figure of 108 for Mac Love - he finished a length and a half behind the winner – which also sits nicely with Dance And Dance’s rating, putting Mac Love 2lb behind that one for a beating of three-quarters of a length.

The highest rated horse in the Diomed remains Worthadd (down 2lb to 118) courtesy of his clear-cut Group 3 success under a penalty at Baden-Baden last month. He appeared to have every chance as Mirco Demuro kicked him into the lead 2f out but should have put up more of a fight from there and I’ve little doubt he’s better than this.

HENRY REVIVED AND A CONSISTENT OPINION

Last year’s renewal of the Henry II Stakes looked a pretty moderate one at the time and that has since been more than confirmed as the first five have run twenty six times between them without tasting success, writes Stephen Hindle.

The race has been downgraded from Group 2 to Group 3, yet ironically this year’s renewal looks much stronger as 2011 winner, Blue Bajan trailed home ninth of the ten runners behind Opinion Poll, who continued his remarkable run of consistency by making the frame for his twentieth consecutive start.

Truth be told, Opinion Poll was entitled to win on the figures and I have him running slightly below his 116 rating. As the third, Chiberta King is solid on 108, Ibicenco who finished second, ran better than at Newbury the time before, though still not to his best and I lowered him to 110 to line him up with the winner.

Time Up stayed on well in fourth and while I felt inclined to drop him from the 111 he was on going in, he beat Chiberta King when winning a Listed race at Newmarket last year so I felt I could still justify a higher rating than Chiberta King so I went with 109.

Ziuder Zee probably ran his best race to date in dead heating for fourth.

Only a nose behind Chiberta King he also goes to 108 from 105 going in. The first five finished clear in a renewal that looked to have a fair bit of depth so I expect the form to prove more solid than in 2011.

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Eyeing up some Caviar

One 6f handicap run at Newmarket on Saturday produced a decent finish fought out by four quality sprinters.

The winner was Mirza, who started the season winning off a rating of 94 and took this contest from a mark of 98 by three-quarters of a length from Es Que Love, Medicean Man and High Standing, who were in a line for second.

All four registered a performance figure in excess of 100 which is a good level for any handicap.

The rating of the winner will go up 4lb to 102, although if he took his chance in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot he would be saddled with a 5lb penalty and have to run off the equivalent of 103.

This would give a theoretical advantage to both Medicean Man and High Standing, who hold the same entry in that early closing race and would receive 4lb and 5lb respectively for beatings of under a length on Saturday.

Of the four fighting out the finish it is Es Que Love who faces the most daunting task at Royal Ascot as he holds only one entry and that it is the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, which is the race that Black Caviar is being targeted at.

A lot of column inches have been devoted to the Australian sprint queen but what sort of task are the British based sprinters facing if lining up against her?

Her current rating in Australia is 130 and my colleague Greg Pearson has done plenty of work in assessing her performances over the last 18 months.

He has her running a best of 132 in March 2011 and in her most recent two starts he has her running to figures of 122 and 123 where it could be argued that the figures she was able to post were limited by the opposition she faced.

Remembering that she will receive a 3lb fillies allowance at Ascot, a male sprinter will have to run to a figure in excess of 125 to beat her if she shows up in any reasonable order. Do we have any around capable of doing that?

Amongst our leading contenders are Bated Breath (currently rated 118), Hoof It (also currently rated 118) and Society Rock (currently rated 117).

The French-trained filly Moonlight Cloud has a rating of 118 and would meet Black Caviar at level weights so currently provides the sternest challenge on paper.

The aforementioned Es Que Love has a rating of 107 after Newmarket, so he has stacks to find.

TARIQ SUCCESS FURTHERS WEAVER CAUSE

Amy Weaver is making a name for herself as a trainer and Tariq Too came within touching distance of becoming her first horse to achieve a three-figure rating when winning the 7f handicap at Doncaster on Saturday, writes Graeme Smith.

Tariq Too is a five-year-old now but he's sustained his progress throughout his career. His first start for the trainer saw him win readily at Thirsk in April and he soon put a slightly disappointing effort when favourite for the Victoria Cup behind him with a battling success on Town Moor.

The majority of the ten-strong field came in form and Tariq Too and Godolphin's Australian recruit Scarf drew more than three lengths clear of the remainder as they went head-to-head through the last furlong.

Having taken the form at face value, I increased Scarf's rating by 6lb to 108 and Tariq Too's figure by 7lb to 98, which should be more than enough for Tariq Too to get in any top handicap his connections choose to aim him at.

There were some smart three-year-olds on show in the 1m2f conditions race later on Doncaster's card. Only four went to post and Counterglow proved rather tame as he dropped away but Starboard, Kingsdesire and Expense Claim ensured a tight race.

Expense Claim's pre-race rating of 97 has its foundation in handicaps and that looks the most solid guide to the level, with Starboard and Kingsdesire both lightly raced and open to further improvement. Using 1.75lb per length, which is our standard for 1m2f, I increased Starboard's rating to 101 (up 4lb) and Kingsdesire's figure to 99 (up 5lb).

That's still some way shy of what Starboard will have to achieve if he's to figure in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, but his form is progressive and the further step up in trip could well be in his favour given the stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree.

A TWO YEAR OLD WARNING ON THE APPROACH TO ROYAL ASCOT

In an ideal spring the two-year-old form builds brick by brick into a solid wall that bears weight. This year, instead of bricks, we have puddles of mud, writes Matthew Tester.

For one thing so much of the heavy ground form is useless in judging fast ground races. For another thing, some of the biggest strings of two-year-olds took ages to hit form. My impression is that those of Mark Johnson and Richard Fahey, for example, have not yet caught fire.

Time and again there is just nothing from which to build a rating. The winner beats a bunch of newcomers and something that tailed off on very different ground last time. The speed figures are less help than usual since rain throughout a day can completely skew the figures.

I have been looking after the two-year-olds for quite a while and have never known a tougher year for building the foundations. Royal Ascot might make things clearer and I am particularly looking forward to seeing Ahern, Sky Lantern, Dawn Approach and Sir Prancelot.

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Improved Jolly Roger is a handicapper's nightmare
With a pedigree that smacks more of Ballet or Opera, being by Oratorio out of a Sadler's Wells mare, Jolly Roger had not hitherto looked particularly well named, writes David Dickinson.

However, having 'burgled' no less than six handicap hurdles in a stunning 33-day spell, suddenly the name seems highly appropriate.

A promising juvenile for another yard, he was looking typical of the sort of horse from that sphere who does not train on past that juvenile season.

The performance figure of 125 he had achieved as a juvenile came when the age group was allowed 15lb weight for age and the race involved had subsequently been dropped 5lb as well.

So after his first four lacklustre performances for the Tony Carroll yard his mark had slipped to just 94.

And novice chasing was out as last November, he had taken advantage of a four-year-old weight for age allowance of 11lb when winning over fences at Ludlow. That proved his only chase completion in a trio of attempts.

So, not an obvious Hunt Ball clone waiting in the wings ready to strut his stuff.

Returning from a six week absence at Uttoxeter on May 13, the market suggested a return to better form was anticipated.

Crucially the clever connections had chosen a conditional jockeys' handicap which Jolly Roger duly won but consequently escaped a penalty for his follow-up success over the same course and distance six days later.

Clearly conditional jockeys and apprentice handicaps are run on days that clerks of courses and race planning see fit but from a handicap perspective one run on a Sunday is a long way short of ideal, giving such any winner 13 days to run unpenalised in an open handicap.

With a new mark of 105, connections found another conditional jockeys' handicap, this time at Cartmel on Wednesday, June 6, which the horse won most impressively.

Knowing the horse was facing a sharp rise in his rating, they made last week pay.

Again he had no penalty at Newton Abbot on Monday but he carried one successfully at Hereford on Thursday and a double penalty at Aintree the following evening.

So after six on the bounce the horse's confidence must be sky high (unlike that of the assessor who feels like a bit of a dunce).

It is to be hoped that he remains competitive off his new mark of 133 because his could easily become the jumping story of the summer.

CRACKENTORP AND COWARD DOUBLE UP

Crackentorp continued his love affair with York, the Queen Mother's Cup and, for that matter, Jacqueline Coward by taking this lady riders' amateur handicap by three-quarters of a length from Hong Kong Island, writes Stephen Hindle.

Having also won the race in 2011, Crackentorp took this from a career-high mark of 93 and is clearly better than ever at the age of seven. He also finished third in 2010, while his last three wins on the Flat have come on the Knavesmire.

There was no significant trouble in running and the form looks fairly straightforward. I rated the race around the third, Veiled Applause, who is having a very good season and turned in another solid performance.

Having looked at his win at Ripon and his performance here, I felt Veiled Applause was probably on about the right mark.

Veiled Applause finished three lengths behind the winner, so I raised Crackentorp by 5lb to 98, a standard use of pounds per length.

Hong Kong Island may have made things a bit more interesting if he'd kept straight, drifting both ways.

However, it's rather subjective to say he could have finished closer and the winner, of course, scooped up the majority of the prize money, so I stuck to the norm and called the three-quarters of a length 2lb, putting up Hong Kong Island by 3lb to 84.

REMEMBER WHAT MARGOT DID?

In 2011 the Listed Scurry Stakes was won by Margot Did, who went on to taste Group 1 glory in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York in August. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that history will repeat itself after the 2012 renewal was won by Pearl Secret at Sandown on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

Pearl Secret was maintaining his 100 per cent record after four starts and his form has a very progressive look to it.

Following a two-year-old maiden victory he was allocated a mark of 85. His 2012 return saw him win a Class 3 handicap off that mark of 85 by a comfortable four and a half lengths after which he was rated 101.

He then stepped up to Class 2 company when winning a conditions race last time out over the Nunthorpe course and distance. Again his performance was impressive and again his mark was revised upwards - this time to 108.

Last weekend saw him successfully step up to Listed company although the bare form of his victory suggests that no further improvement was needed to win it.

The race was run at only a modest pace with Free Zone, who finished runner-up, taking them along.

In coming from held-up to lead late the performance of Pearl Secret was unspectacular but he did win under hands and heels and it could easily be argued that the race was not run to suit.

I have him running to a figure of 105+ in winning by a neck with the runner-up returning a career best of 104. His official rating will remain at 108.

This is currently some way below what would normally be required to win the Nunthorpe - Margot Did recorded a figure of 114 last year and the last 5 winners have averaged out at 116.

However, Pearl Secret remains progressive and his run style makes it easy to conclude that a strongly run race will show him in a better light.

He holds no engagements at Royal Ascot but is still currently amongst the entries for the July Cup, although connections suggest that the Nunthorpe could well be his main target.

MUD NOT ALWAYS SO GLORIOUS WHEN IT COMES TO REASSESSMENT

There are times when handicapping can be largely mathematical but wet weather and testing ground have a tendency to make things a lot more difficult and the 7f handicap at York on Friday proved a case in point, writes Graeme Smith.

There was a length between Sam Nombulist and Esprit De Midas at the head of the 20-strong field - a distance we'd call 2lb at this trip - but the remainder finished at long intervals behind, with seven lengths back to the third and fourth and a further eight lengths back to the rest.

Most of the field had made their way to the stand side in the straight but it soon became obvious that the middle of the track was the place to be, with the first, second, fourth and fifth all taking that route, whilst the third and eighth weren't far wide of those horses, so that was an immediate explanation for the poor runs of the majority.

The trouble was that both Green Howard (had won handicaps on his last three starts) and Dubai Hills in third and fourth had run sufficiently well last time to suggest they are on competitive marks and shouldn't be dropped at this stage, yet rises of 16lb and 14lb for the first two to give that pair 'the correct' pull wasn't an option either given neither had looked particularly unexposed (they were sent off at odds of 25-1 and 20-1).

In the end I decided this wasn't trustworthy form and the distances involved pretty much went out the window.

I was happy to say Sam Nombulist and Esprit De Midas posted career-best efforts but rather toned down the extent of them.

Given a standard penalty for a handicap winner on the Flat is 6lb, I felt I ought to go above that level with Sam Nombulist (up 7lb to 85) yet, at that same time, stay below it with Esprit De Midas (up 5lb to 94 on turf), who's been beaten in handicaps on his last three starts.

This is obviously a make-shift measure until I get more evidence on the first two, but it's a level I feel I can justify to connections of both the first two and the remainder of the field.

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Frankel-ly a Demolition at Royal Ascot


Somewhere around 2.33pm last Tuesday somebody asked me the question how I felt having seen Frankel's demolition of the Queen Anne field - "bloody relieved" was my immediate and totally honest answer, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Having rather put my neck on the line in raising his rating from 136 to 138 for his reappearance success in the Lockinge, it was a very satisfying sight to see the world's best thoroughbred put up such a stunning performance - without doubt one of the most visually impressive efforts I, or anyone else at Ascot, have had the privilege of witnessing. But what to do with his rating now?

There is always a degree of subjectivity involved with an eleven length winner and it is clear that old adversary Excelebration (125) did not run anywhere near his mark in finishing second, so I had to delve further back into the field to find some sort of benchmark for the level.

Third placed Side Glance was 115 in the World Thoroughbred Rankings last year, so a return to that level was a possible starting point but he had been a little below par in three previous runs this year so it was no guarantee. Fourth placed Indomito came from Germany with an official mark of 108 but on closer inspection I don't think that mark does justice to his seasonal debut at Dusseldorf in April when he ran the best miler in Germany, Alianthus, to half a length in receipt of only 4lb - in retrospect that looks more like a performance of 112.

Feeding that 112 into the Queen Anne, my figures for the race are Frankel 140, Excelebration 115, Side Glance 114 and Indomito 112 - which sits comfortably with me and recognises the incontrovertible fact that this was Frankel's best effort to date. But is he, as some are suggesting, the best ever?

My answer to that question is yes he MAY be the best ever but I don't believe his performance in the Queen Anne is the performance on which to make such a huge call!

If the below par Excelebration is stripped out of last Tuesday result he has basically done what everyone would have expected him to do to horses who are no better than Group Two and Three performers - he went into the race with 25lb in hand of Side Glance and beat him 11.25 lengths, he had 30lb in hand of Indomito and beat him 12.25 lengths and he was rated 34lb superior to fifth place Windsor Place who was 15.25 lengths behind.

Despite the glorious style of his victory, I am far from comfortable in saying he is the best ever in beating those horses - especially when one considers the fantastic quality of the 1986 Arc field (chock full of multiple Group One and Classic winners) which Dancing Brave beat to earn his figure of 141.

Elsewhere at the Royal meeting the St James's Palace confirmed the view that we are still searching for a superstar miler amongst the three year old colts. Most Improved posted a figure of 116 in taking the race; it was, however, a good effort from stall 15 in a bigger than average field of 16 runners and he should continue to progress.

Things are little clearer amongst the fillies at a mile and Fallen For You nailed her colours to the mast when landing the Coronation on Friday - a performance I have pitched at 117, with runner-up Starscope at 110 and third placed Irish History at 106.

Disappointment of the race was once again wide margin 1,000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen who never looked like reproducing her Newmarket effort and looks the prime candidate at the present moment for the "Most Difficult Horse of the Year to Assess" prize at the WTR Conference in Hong Kong at the end of the year!!


CAVIAR PILOTED THROUGH CLOUDY WATERS... JUST

‘The race that stops a nation' is often used to describe the Melbourne Cup, but on Saturday it was Black Caviar's jockey who almost stole that headline for himself, writes Stewart Copeland.

I won't dwell on it too much, as she did win to be fair, but the thought of seeing the wonderful mare almost being caught in such circumstances caused the heart to miss a beat, or two. All's well that end well... just.

Ironic in a way, given most of the focus beforehand was by ‘how far' she would win, or whether she could match the imperious performance put up by Frankel earlier in the week.

In fairness that was always going to be a massive ask, considering she'd flown halfway round the world, her body clock was stuck in her winter, and she was racing on a track which would have been alien to her.

All that considered it was a great job by all concerned with her to keep her amazing unbeaten record going, and if it hadn't been for her being eased close home, she'd have run out a cosy winner. Black Caviar's connections deserve great credit for taking up the challenge and her win was a fitting tribute to her and them.

In terms of ratings Black Caviar is currently rated 132, but she came nowhere near that on Saturday, and ran about a stone below her best, returning a rating of 117+.

It's difficult to take a more positive view for now, the field rather finished in a heap and it's possible even that view is a touch on the high side.

From a time perspective, the overall time is slower than the following Wokingham, and the sectionals suggest that was run at a much stronger pace to past halfway. That probably explains why there was still plenty in with a chance two furlongs out, though the sectional Black Caviar put up between 2f-1f out was the only sub 11 seconds per furlong in the race. That surge of speed won her the race.

Furthermore, putting the race in to a historical context based on the standards we keep for previous runnings, that suggests a similar level of performance for Black Caviar as well, which means the race is probably no more than an average renewal.

On a further historical point, she became the first of the fairer sex to win the race in its current Group One guise, and the first to win since Posada in 1988, when it was the Group 3 Cork and Orrery. I should remember that, given I backed the latter in 1988.

In summary it was a privilege for all horseracing fans to see Black Caviar compete in Britain. Indeed she creates that much attention for racing, all of it positive, even my local newsagent excitedly asked me about her on Saturday morning, which left me in no doubt the impact she has had as horseracing wouldn't be our usual topic of discussion!

Let's hope she gets over the injury which came to light after the race and we're lucky enough to see this wonderful mare race again back in her native Australia.


GODOLPHIN GOLD CUP ONE TWO A TRIUMPH FOR VISION OVER OPINION

As the handicapper responsible for races over staying trips, Royal Ascot provides me with an interesting variety of races to assess. They are nicely spread too. I have the Ascot Stakes on the Tuesday, the Gold Cup on the Thursday, the Queen's Vase on the Friday and the final race the entire meeting, Saturday's Queen Alexandra Stakes, writes Stephen Hindle.

The highlight of those races, of course, is the Group 1 Gold Cup, and this year it was easily the closest of my races at Royal Ascot (it would have been nice if the Ascot Stakes, the only handicap of my group, had been so close!).

Favourite was last year's winner, Fame And Glory, but a repeat success was not to be, Aidan O'Brien's six-year-old beating only two home in seventh with Jamie Spencer later reporting that the horse was unsuited by the slow early pace.

Despite the odds-on favourite running well below par, the race was actually very easy to rate with the 117-rated Colour Vision beating the 116-rated Opinion Poll by half a length.

I had Saddler's Rock running to 115 on his previous two starts, so with only a further neck back to him in third the race pretty much handicapped itself.

Given the steady pace, I stretched out the distances a little, calling the length from Saddler's Rock to Gulf of Naples 2 lb, rather than one, which makes Gulf of Naples 113. That bit of creativity allowed me to have Askar Tau, three lengths behind Gulf of Naples in fifth, running to 110, a mark he has never exceeded but did run up to when filling the same spot in last year's Gold Cup.

While everything fits nicely into place and I'm happy with the level of the race at this stage, there is scope for going slightly higher. Colour Vision beat Red Cadeaux by one and a half lengths (also eased a touch) in the Sagaro Stakes at Kempton, and Red Cadeaux has since shown himself a consistent 116 performer, therefore Colour Vision could be as high as 119 through Red Cadeaux.

It seemed sensible, however, to have Opinion Poll and Askar Tau running to the figures they achieved when filling the same positions in last year's Gold Cup, so that is the option I went for.

The other Pattern race over a long distance at the meeting is the Queen's Vase, a Group 3 event which was won this year by The Queen's Estimate, who showed much improved form stepping up in trip on what was just her third career start.

A half-sister to the 1999 Gold Cup winner Enzeli, Estimate is clearly a stayer worth following after beating Athens by five lengths. I based the rating on the third, Ed de Gas, whose best previous best form could be about 100, and took the winner to 105 as a result.

While Estimate is still unexposed and this race is hard to assess, I doubt Camelot has too much to worry about at the moment as far as the St Leger goes.

My other two races at Royal Ascot were won by the same horse, Simenon becoming the first to do the double in the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra since Baddam in 2006.

Baddam was second in a hunter chase last month but I suspect Simenon will be aiming at slightly higher-class events in the near future! He was an impressive winner of both races, scoring by six lengths in the Ascot Stakes and seven in the Queen Alexandra, but the Ascot Stakes performance was probably slightly better as he was giving weight to the vast majority of his rivals.

Being an Irish-trained gelding, I will not publish a new rating myself, but I have suggested to my Irish counterparts a new mark of 106, which is a rise of 11 lb.


TWO-YEAR-OLDS RATINGS EARLIER THAN USUAL BUT WITH A WARNING OF VOLATILITY

We have published the 2yo ratings already, five weeks earlier than we have ever done before, writes Matthew Tester.

Everyone needs to be aware that these ratings are still tremendously fluid. There will be some big collateral changes as the form evolves. Previously we have only published once those early upheavals have settled down. Therefore people will be unused to such big adjustments as they may see this year.

This has been the toughest start to a season that I have ever known for getting a handle on the 2yo form.

There are quite a few horses for whom there is simply not yet enough evidence on which to base a rating at all. I will be trying to get them on file as soon as I can. However, patience will be needed until the form starts to knit itself together. I hope connections do not get too frustrated as we go through that necessary process.
 
I'm delighted to see that the juvenile ratings are to be published from the outset. I could never see any reason for keeping them secret. Everyone appreciates that a two-year-old handicap is fluid and a work-in-progress but at least we'll now know a horse's official mark instead of having to rely on the Post's "estimated" one.
 
Chips are down for Plate winner McCain.

PUT your sunglasses on as I'm about to blind you with statistics, writes Stephen Hindle.

Ile de Re has just landed the Northumberland Plate carrying 9st 3lb, which is the most weight carried to victory in the race since Bangalore in 2002.

If that doesn't impress you, it is the highest official winning mark in the race since Windsor Castle in 1997.

Still not convinced? Well, Ile de Re landed a major gamble (it seems I'm about the only person who considered the possibility he could get beat), becoming the shortest-priced winner since Celeric in 1996.

Okay, perhaps I should have just skipped to the most impressive stat of them all, which is that Ile de Re just became the first horse to win the Northumberland Plate and the Chester Cup in the same season since 1974. That was several years before I was born!

Connections' biggest concern beforehand seemed not to be whether Ile de Re would beat his opponents but whether the meeting would survive at all. Thursday's card was wiped out halfway through after a horrendous thunderstorm, which quickly saw the abandonment of Friday's card and at that point it looked odds against racing going ahead on Saturday.

However, the weather relented somewhat, the ground staff did an excellent job, racing went ahead and conditions turned out to be ideal for Ile de Re, who had already shown himself to be fully effective in such treacherous ground at Chester. Ridden positively, he had to work in the end but was always fighting off the challenges of Crackentorp and Icon Dream, with French Hollow finishing best from off the pace in fourth.

Normally, I like to take a positive view of valuable handicaps such as this, but I think in such testing ground a degree of caution needs to be used.

That said, I felt French Hollow ran really well from 2lb out of the handicap and wouldn't want to see him competing off a lower mark next time out, so I raised him to the mark he competed off, which was 82. With Icon Dream two lengths in front of him, his mark increased by 2lb to 100.

Crackentorp ran a cracking race in second having won the Queen Mother's Cup last time out, proving himself fully effective both at a long distance and away from York, the scene of his last three wins. He goes up to a new career high of 101, a rise of 3lb having finished half a length in front of Icon Dream.

All that boils down to a new rating of 106 for Ile de Re, a rise of 5lb. I called the half-length 2lb because, as stated earlier, he was always holding on.

I'd like to say the real winners were the Newcastle ground staff, but with Ile de Re's connections pocketing the best part of 90 grand that may be stretching it a bit!

LIBRANNO RETURNS FOR ENCORE

The 7f Group 3 John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday was won for the second successive year by Richard Hannon's colt Libranno, Richard Hughes dictating a steady pace before quickening and holding on gamely in a bunched finish, writes Mark Olley.

Libranno achieved a figure of 112 when winning last year (the average rating for the winner of this race over the last ten years), but having based the race around the third, Majestic Myles (108), and fourth, Bannock (107), I have him running to 110 this time round.

Last season Libranno's next race was the 6f July Cup at Newmarket, in which he finished an excellent fourth despite meeting trouble in running. Plans indicate a similar path this year and, as a more experienced horse, he should again run very well.

Paul d'Arcy's Edinburgh Knight put up a career best rating of 109 in finishing second, but if you look back at his fourth place in the Lincoln back in March you will see that the horses either side of him that day were Fury (now rated 107) and Eton Forever (now 109) - so maybe not such an ‘improved' run.

Earlier in the week Warwick hosted the 7f Listed Eternal Stakes for fillies. This turned into a messy affair with the favourite Diala getting badly hampered around a furlong out. Ed McMahon's filly Radio Gaga (98) held on gamely to win and confirm the promise she showed when second in the Group 3 Fred Darling at Newbury back in April.

The first five fillies ran almost to the pound to their pre-race ratings and these tie in well with the race standards.

JUST CLAIMS THIS IS NO OVER ASSESSMENT

When I woke up on Sunday morning and sat down to handicap the previous days racing - the first race I'd printed out was a claimer from Chester on Saturday (next week it will be the Group 1 Coral Eclipse Stakes!), writes Greg Pearson.

Just Lille recorded her 15th win and what a wonderful stalwart she has been to the Ann Duffield yard, with a victory earlier in the week at Beverley (also in claiming company).

She has now successfully managed to win a minimum of one race every year (often several) since she commenced racing in 2006. I know not many mares are still racing at the age of nine but rest assured of those that are, there would be few who could lay claim to the fact they had won a race every season (for seven seasons straight). It's a remarkable testament to the horse's durability and astute placement on the part of her trainer.

I had never handicapped the mare in my four years on the panel, so I trawled back through her form profile and identified that she hadn't won a handicap for over two years (granted she'd only had four handicap starts since the Hamilton win, all defeats off marks ranging from 89 to 95).

She has won four of her last six starts and is unbeaten in claimers (four from four), but the question I had to ask myself was is she still worth a handicap mark of 88? and the answer in my opinion was no.

She had won two races in the last five days but in recording performance figures of 84+ & 79+ in doing so, this strongly indicated to me her current rating might be out of date (add to that her only recent handicap start, where she was beaten 15 lengths off a mark of 89) and I was sold on the idea that her rating could be dropped 3lb from 88 to 85 which gives a more accurate representation of what she is currently achieving on the track.

Next time a trainer says to me "you never drop the winner of a claimer or seller", I will be able to use Just Lille as proof that just because you're winning in non-handicap company it doesn't necessarily mean your handicap mark shall remain dormant. She isn't the first I've dropped for winning and I certainly don't intend for her to be the last.
 
Heavens among those to shine on super Saturday

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:16PM 10 JUL 2012

SO NEAR YET SO FARHH FOR GODOLPHIN

THE 2012 Coral-Eclipse was naturally weakened somewhat by the untimely late defection of So You Think, writes Greg Pearson.

We still had a field of nine go to post and with five individual Group 1 winners engaged, it promised to be an enthralling contest.

The race didn't disappoint with classy winner Nathaniel returning to action and bravely repelling strong challenges from Farhh, Cityscape and Crackerjack King in the straight to win officially by half a length.

In recording a performance figure of 124, he rates as the fourth best winner this century coming in behind Sea The Star (132, 2009), Giant's Causeway (127, 2000) and So You Think (126, 2011) but ahead of Notnowcato, Hawk Wing, David Junior, Oratorio, Refuse To Bend and Falbrav among others.

Nathaniel's official handicap mark of 126, derived from winning last year's Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, will remain unchanged.

Hugely progressive Godolphin colt Farhh has had his handicap mark increased from 118 to 122 (+4lb) after finishing second. I have called the margin between the pair 2lb as visually it looked to be bordering on three-quarters of a length in my opinion.

Third-placed Twice Over recorded a performance figure of 117, which was 2lb below the figure he posted when winning a weaker renewal of this race in 2010.

Unplaced runners Cityscape (failed to stay the trip), Crackerjack King (suited by quicker ground?) and Bonfire (needs to learn to settle in his races) all deserve to be given another chance to showcase their unquestioned ability at this elite level.

It hasn't yet been determined whether we will get to see Nathaniel and Farhh reoppose over 1m4f in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in two weeks' time, but with Dunaden, Masked Marvel, Sea Moon, St Nicholas Abbey, Reliable Man, Deep Brillante and Danedream all entered up, it promises to be a very competitive field nonetheless.

GREAT HEAVENS, SHE'S GOOD

Haydock's Lancashire Oaks looked competitive enough on paper, with seven of the nine runners rated above 100. To find the winner, however, you would have had to look beyond those seven as Great Heavens went in rated 98, only to come out on a mark of 116!

In all honesty, the result wasn't that much of a surprise. Great Heavens was much the least exposed in the field, having had just three previous racecourse outings, winning two of them, and she was sent off favourite.

After setting a good pace, her backers must have enjoyed the final three furlongs as she pulled further and further clear until being eased in the final 50 yards, her winning margin officially five lengths over Shimmering Surf.

The race virtually assessed itself, as the 107-rated Shimmering Surf and 105-rated third-placed Set To Music finished a similar distance apart to when first and second at the track a month earlier.

In behind, nothing except the 88-rated Good Morning Star holds down the form. The time is impressive too, comfortably the quickest of the three mile and a half races on the card, which included the Old Newton Cup.

Few fillies and mares record such a high figure as this and Great Heavens will surely be seen in Group 1 company next time out. The Yorkshire Oaks would seem an obvious target.

Having already mentioned the Old Newton Cup, it would be remiss not to mention the winner, Number Theory, whose four career wins have all been at Haydock.

The first was in 2011 but his last three have come on his last three starts, the first one this season off a mark of 76. He was up to 92 on Saturday, including a pound overweight, but travelled with his customary enthusiasm and held off the late surge of Quiz Mistress by a neck. His new mark is 97.

At Sandown, Chiberta King was attempting a repeat success in the Esher Stakes. In fact, the first three from 2011 were all having another go, with Aaim To Prosper, beaten a nose by Chiberta King last year, and Electrolyser, who was third in that contest, again in opposition.

Aaim To Prosper and Chiberta King ran virtually to the pound as there was only a short head between them this time, though the order was the other way around.

Unfortunately for connections of those two, there was a high-class individual in the line-up on this occasion in the shape of Cavalryman, once rated in the 120s having finished third in the 2009 Arc behind Sea The Stars, and they filled the placings rather than fought out victory.

Cavalryman came here on the back of a win at York in another Listed contest and he really showed his class with an authoritative four-and-a-half length success, despite conceding three pounds to all except Electrolyser, who finished last.

The form looks pretty solid given the second and third were first and second last year and Cavalryman is now on a mark of 115.

He could make his mark a fair bit further up in the staying division as that rating suggests he wouldn't have much to find with his stable companion Colour Vision, who won the Gold Cup but is rated only 2lb higher.

NO WAY TO GUARD AGAINST RESULTS LIKE THIS ONE

It is the unsatisfactory races in terms of pace that mark out the difference between being a private and official handicapper, writes David Dickinson.

One such race happened on the first of the month at Uttoxeter. A competitive enough looking handicap hurdle was won by Changing The Guard by 26 lengths. It was, however, a race that a private handicapper would have said something along the lines of 'this isn't worth the paper it's written on'.

The reason for this is simple, the pace of the race. Passing the stands with a circuit to run they all appeared to be pretty much flat out and soon after the home turn there was only one horse keeping up the gallop, the winner.

Changing The Guard was dropping down in trip so kept up the gallop to the line and a six-length advantage late in the day quickly became 26 at the line.

As a private handicapper paid to predict future winners, you may put a line through this race as meaningless.

As an official handicapper, if you left the mark of a 26 length handicap winner unchanged and left him no worse in with the rivals he had just thrashed, I think the men in white coats would (rightly) be summoned.

I have not called the 26 lengths 26lb (I usually use a pound a length at two miles) but have returned Changing The Guard to his highest ever mark of 112, a rise of 15lb.

Is that too much? Well the horse ran again last Sunday and was beaten off his old mark and a 7lb penalty. So this coming week I am sure I will be taking another look.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Colin Phillips said:
It is the unsatisfactory races in terms of pace that mark out the difference between being a private and official handicapper, writes David Dickinson.

One such race happened on the first of the month at Uttoxeter. A competitive enough looking handicap hurdle was won by Changing The Guard by 26 lengths. It was, however, a race that a private handicapper would have said something along the lines of 'this isn't worth the paper it's written on'.

The reason for this is simple, the pace of the race. Passing the stands with a circuit to run they all appeared to be pretty much flat out and soon after the home turn there was only one horse keeping up the gallop, the winner.

Changing The Guard was dropping down in trip so kept up the gallop to the line and a six-length advantage late in the day quickly became 26 at the line.

As a private handicapper paid to predict future winners, you may put a line through this race as meaningless.

As an official handicapper, if you left the mark of a 26 length handicap winner unchanged and left him no worse in with the rivals he had just thrashed, I think the men in white coats would (rightly) be summoned.

I have not called the 26 lengths 26lb (I usually use a pound a length at two miles) but have returned Changing The Guard to his highest ever mark of 112, a rise of 15lb.
Click to expand...
You can always rely on Dickinson to talk a bit of sense, unlike people like Mordin.
 
I don't understand the bit about 'returned Changing The Guard to his highest ever mark of 112, a rise of 15lb' When has COTG ever been rated 112 before?

I would disagree with what he says about how a private handicapper might view the race. Changing The Guard is an ex-Flat horse, rated 88 at his peak, his best form gained at around a mile and a quarter.

Then have a look at how he's been campaigned over hurdles, running at 2 1/2m+ on his first 6 starts. What we saw at Uttoxeter was a horse dropped in trip off a break, for the first time over jumps encountering the conditions that are likely to prove his optimum. Given he was winning off just 97, having been rated 88 at his peak on the Flat, I'd be more inclined to think he's pretty close to full value for the win.

More fool anyone that sees the horse turned out quickly on soft ground over an extra 1f and takes that as evidence that the horse is too high in the weights. I know very little about summer jumping, other than looking at Changing The Guard's Flat form and profile, and I would expect him to win again off 112, when the emphasis is on speed at 2m.
 
most private handicappers ignore pace completely from what i've seen and accept races at face value..in fact if anyone brings pace up as affecting a race outcome its like some black art has been displayed

i'd need some evidence that the horses that were flat out had gone too hard early for a start..because if they just couldn't go the winners pace then maybe the winner is just well in
 
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