The thoughts of the handicappers.

The way they justify their ratings leaves them embarrassingly open to ridicule. You would have thought they could at least pretend they are arriving at the figures in a rigorous scientific manner.
 
"the handicapper is entitled to pat himself on the back"

And it was all going so well . . . :lol:
 
This year’s build up to the six-furlong Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket, like so many races this summer, was dominated by the weather, with daily bulletins on potential runners, writes Stewart Copeland.

Already riding soft on the Friday, a further deluge that evening put paid to the participation of ante-post favourite Bated Breath. Indeed by the time I’d arrived at the course on Saturday, the going had officially changed to heavy, and it was obvious to all that conditions were going to be testing.

Not only on the track either, as most of the lawns resembled muddy fields, and keeping your feet was a challenge in itself!

The race was a notable landmark for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan, landing their first domestic Group 1 victory with the four-year old colt Mayson, who grabbed the initiative early on and dominated throughout for a runaway success.

After a tremendous start to his campaign, winning the Abernant and Palace House Stakes on the nearby Rowley Mile, Mayson had genuine excuses for his next two unplaced starts, and as a result went off a generous-looking 20-1.

I say generous, because when looking at the race beforehand with colleague Mark Olley, we thought it was guaranteed that Mayson would act on the going, and be up with the pace – both vital factors on the day. His chances looked stronger by the minute with every drop of rain. The earlier handicaps suggested it was difficult coming from off the pace, and those held up in the July Cup were probably going to be at a significant disadvantage. So it proved.

None of that should detract, though, from the admirable trailblazing Mayson’s moment of triumph, but in assessing the race I’ve factored those details into my calculations. Normally you’d expect a five length winner of the July Cup to be rated in the 120+ category at least, but given conditions rendered the race less competitive than usual, I eventually settled on a figure of 119. That still means his rating is on a par with the average we’d expect for a July Cup winner. It’s also the highest rated performance by a British sprinter this year, marginally ahead of Bated Breath at 118.

Away from Newmarket, it’s also briefly worth highlighting the excellent performance of the Goldophin-trained five-year old gelding Soul, who won the six-furlong Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. Rated 115 after his fine fourth to Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, I’ve credited him with an improved rating of 117 for his decisive four-length beating of Firebeam.

Like Mayson at Newmarket, he handled the testing conditions well. It’s not often we have two such high class sprint performances on the same day - never mind only ten minutes apart!

GIOFRA FLIES FLAG FOR FRANCE IN FALMOUTH

As widely expected, Newmarket’s Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes went the way of France. However it was not the much fancied Golden Lilac who took the spoils, but the Alain de Royer Dupre-trained Giofra who galloped through the unseasonal soft ground to land her first Group 1, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

From a ratings perspective it was not a huge shock. She came into the race with a published rating in France of 115 which was the third highest in the ten runner field, behind Golden Lilac (120) and runner-up Elusive Kate (116), and I believe she has improved slightly on that figure with a performance of 116. It’s not a particularly easy race to be confident about at this stage but I have taken the view that fourth placed Irish History (beaten five lengths) has reproduced her Coronation form of 106 which suggests that not only has Giofra improved a pound on her previous form, but that Elusive Kate has only run a pound off her two year old figure of 116.

Two things place a slight question-mark over the form - the slow early pace which only quickened up when Frankie Dettori went for home on Elusive Kate, and the proximity of the third French filly in the race, Siyouma, in third - she was rated 109 pre-race and appears to have stepped up on that to a new mark of 113.

As is so often the case with handicapping matters, we can only wait to see how this result shakes down as the season progresses. Post-race talk regarding the winner suggested she would step back up in trip with a crack at the Arc being considered long-term, whilst Elusive Kate deserves a good deal of credit for her reappearance on ground that trainer John Gosden felt was far from ideal. As I have said before, the pecking order amongst the three year old fillies over a mile is still not entirely clear and if she can build on this she will be a major player in the division in the second half of the season.

FIORENTE JUSTIFIES CONNECTIONS’ FAITH WITH FIRST GROUP WIN

When Fiorente finished second to Nathaniel in last year’s King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, connections clearly had very high hopes for the son of Monsun, writes Stephen Hindle.

On his next start, Fiorente was sent off 11-10 favourite for the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, only to find another one too good, Namibian getting the better of him on that occasion.

After starting the current campaign with three further defeats, people could be forgiven for thinking Fiorente would not hit the racing big time. In Newmarket’s Princess of Wales’s Stakes, however, he justified connections’ faith to persist in pattern company (he’d previously won only a maiden) with an authoritative victory over some proven Group-class performers.

Fiorente’s defeat of his six rivals in this Group 2 contest reads well. The second, Joshua Tree, is a former Group 1 winner, while the other five have all tasted success in Pattern company.

The third, Red Cadeaux, is a model of consistency. He has finished in the first three on his last eight starts, and we have him running within 2lb of his 116 rating on all of them.

Despite the fact there were a host of smart individuals in the race, this is not the easiest to assess. It’s clear Fiorente is some way better than his pre-race mark of 108, but in beating Red Cadeaux by over four lengths, to have Red Cadeaux running up to his mark would suggest Fiorente has run to 119, which seems a little high, as that would also have Joshua Tree running to 115, a rating he hasn’t appeared up to in the recent past.

In the end I looked at some of Fiorente’s past form and on a line through Nathaniel he can be 117, which conveniently puts him higher than any of his rivals at Newmarket, so I settled on that figure. Joshua Tree goes from 112 to 113 having finished two and three-quarter lengths behind him, while Red Cadeaux stays on 116 having run slightly below his mark a further one and a half lengths back, though still a good effort conceding weight to all his rivals.

Two days later, one of the best staying performances of the season was put up in the Listed Silver Cup, a handicap over the Ebor trip at York.

Mount Athos had a good campaign in 2011, finishing fourth in the Chester Cup, Old Newton Cup and Cesarewitch off a mark in the low 100s, but his career has blossomed since being sent to Luca Cumani, winning a handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance.

His latest display was altogether more impressive, however, as few horses are seen defying marks as high as 108 in competitive Flat handicaps.

Not only did Mount Athos win, he won well, showing an impressive turn of foot off the steady pace and scoring by four lengths, despite being eased, ahead of last-time-out winner High Jinx.

I rated the race using the third, Lyric Street, who finished a neck behind High Jinx. I felt Lyric Street should compete off the same mark that he ran off, despite the fact he was 1lb out of the handicap, because he has been as high as 98 in the past. That equated to a mark of 101, a rise of 1lb, for High Jinx.

Mount Athos, meanwhile, went up to 116 after factoring in a couple of pounds extra due to his being eased. That puts him only 1lb lower than Colour Vision, who won the Ascot Gold Cup. The Melbourne Cup is apparently Mount Athos’ long-term aim for.

KING’S WARRIOR REIGNS SUPREME IN JOHN SMITH’S CUP

Saturday saw the 53rd running of the time-honoured John Smith’s Cup over 10f at York, writes Greg Pearson.

Unexposed ex-French 5yo gelding King’s Warrior destroyed what looked a competitive handicap field, scoring emphatically by four and a half-lengths from Mid Mon Lady and Media Hype. I have rated the race through lightly raced four-year-old Stand To Reason reproducing a career best performance of 95 in finishing fourth beaten just under five lengths. Having run off a handicap mark of 94, that has seen his rating increased by 1lb to 95 and he deserves credit for faring best of those that raced prominently in what was a strongly run contest.

King’s Warrior has been raised 10lb from 91 to 101 for this dominant performance, and clearly with a penchant for soft ground he commands the utmost respect granted similar conditions in the coming weeks and months. Mid Mon Lady (second) and Media Hype (third) have both been raised by 2lb from 100 to 102 and 91 to 93 respectively, and will meet the winner on 8lb better terms in future handicaps. In particular Media Hype gave the impression his revised rating is unlikely to prove the ceiling of his ability, staying on in an eye-catching manner after not getting the clearest of runs in the straight – an increase in distance will surely suit on this evidence.

There was disappointment for connections and supporters of favourite Mijhaar, who got flattened when clipping the heels of weakening leader Fair Trade and nearly falling passing the three furlong pole. His effort is best ignored as he lost all chance in this incident. While there was still a long way to go, there is little doubt in my mind Mijhaar was set to play a leading role in proceedings. Connections of King’s Warrior will be hoping the gelding can emulate the most recent winners of this race Green Destiny and Wigmore Hall, who both went on to record Group-race victories.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Danedream delights us with return to form
The International Handicappers were delighted last Saturday when our joint-champion middle distance horse from 2011, the filly Danedream, returned to somewhere near her best in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, writes head of handicapping Phil Smith.

Her most recent performance in finishing last of four in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud had been disappointing and merited a performance of only 112. However she was never going to be suited by a typically slowly run French race with a small field and I kept her rating on 128 for the Ascot race card.

No different from a handicapper, when a top horse runs too badly to be true they don’t get dropped. Racegoers who purchased a racecard and followed our ratings would have come away with a 9-1 winner as she was top rated going into the race.

The level of the race was difficult to be certain about and has caused some debate among the International Handicappers around the world. Initially I looked to base the race through Nathaniel and St. Nicholas Abbey on 126 and 124 respectively as you would call the 1½ lengths between them as 2lb and this looked quite neat.

Figures in brackets are their ratings coming into the race and it would have led to;

Danedream (128) 124
Nathaniel (126) 126
St Nicholas Abbey (124) 124
Reliable Man (118) 124
Sea Moon (124) 123
Dunaden (118) 121
Brown Panther (117) 120

Unfortunately neatness is not always the best option. In my view St Nicholas Abbey was not ridden to best effect and connections felt the ground was against him. As a result I cannot have him performing to his best. Similarly Sea Moon looked laboured compared to his Hardwicke Stakes victory.

The above would have Dunaden improving 3lbs here for finishing 6th compared to his Melbourne Cup victory. Is that really likely? It would also have Brown Panther improving 3lbs for finishing seventh. Time may show I have been too cautious but I would rather up the level when and if the form works out well rather than have to lower the level in the future.

As Nathaniel ran to 124 when winning the Eclipse, it seemed prudent to assess that he had run the same race so I thus went 2lb lower than my first attempt.

Thus I calculated:

Danedream 122
Nathaniel 124
St Nicholas Abbey 122
Reliable Man 122
Sea Moon 121
Dunaden 119
Brown Panther 118

I will be looking to Reliable Man, Dunaden and Brown Panther in particular to confirm or improve this level over the next few months.

So far, four of the International Handicappers are at my eventual level, while two are at the original higher level. We also have one Handicapper on 123 for the winner. It will be interesting to see which way the rest go over the next few days.

ANOTHER DREAM RESULT ON HILL’S BIG DAY AT RASEN

Lawney Hill picked the highlight of the summer jumping season at Market Rasen on Saturday to showcase her training talents, writes John de Moraville.

For, as if victory with I Have Dreamed in the Listed Betfred Summer Plate was not enough, she struck again later in the day with Bellaboosh, completing a memorable double with chasers making their debuts for her Oxfordshire stable.

I Have Dreamed, a decent handicapper two years ago for Gary Moore, had been running for the successful Steve Flook yard in hunter chases, winning three times this spring.

The 10-year-old, rated 138 in 2009-10, had slipped to a mark of 130 which he achieved at Kempton in April when slamming useful old-timer Whizzaar by 10 lengths.

Starting at 9-1, he ran off 130 in Saturday’s £50,000 showpiece holding on by a whisker in a pulsating finish from 5-1 favourite Al Co, whose storming late run would have succeeded in another couple of strides.

It was the winner’s last-fence blunder, though, that allowed Al Co to get so close and I have taken that into account, reinstating I Have Dreamed on 138 and raising Al Co 6lb to 136, giving him a pull of 2lb for the short-head defeat.

Al Co, a novice whose trainer Peter Bowen had won four of the previous 10 runnings of the Summer Plate, deserves great credit for going so close on his handicap chase debut. A decent prize will surely come his way, especially over a longer trip.

HERO STATUS

Given the time of year, the quality and quantity of hurdle races over the past few days has been high, at both Market Rasen and Cartmel, writes Martin Greenwood.

Market Rasen’s Betfred “The Bonus King” Summer Hurdle was typically competitive with 16 runners and a 9-2 second favourite, Local Hero, aptly-named given that he is trained by Steve Gorrings just down the road from the Lincolnshire track.

Second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr on his last start over hurdles, Local Hero competed off the same mark, 140, at Rasen and defied it in comfortable fashion. Confidently ridden by 10lb claimer Paul Bohan, Local Hero looked the one to beat turning in and so it proved, passing the post a length and a half in front of the progressive pair Kian’s Delight and Kayaan.

Local Hero is now rated 145, so may struggle to find a race at this time of year, but when the ground is on the good side he is likely to continue to hold his own in the better handicaps.
 
So he has rated the King George on that basis that "As Nathaniel ran to 124 when winning the Eclipse, it seemed prudent to assess that he had run the same race".

:lol:
 
Colin Phillips said:
As Nathaniel ran to 124 when winning the Eclipse, it seemed prudent to assess that he had run the same race so I thus went 2lb lower than my first attempt.
Click to expand...

Seems reasonable enough to me. The alternatives would be that he ran a better race but still got beaten, which would mean increasing the OHR of Dunaden and Brown Panther or that he didn't run as well which would have just about everything in the race underperforming.

So he's probably got that one about right I'd say.
 
Small Sussex field awaits super Frankel
SO, at the time of writing just three horses (including his trusty pacemaker Bullet Train) have stood their ground to take on Frankel in Wednesday's Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood - from a handicapping perspective it is a little disappointing but wholly understandable and expected, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

On all known form it should a be another stroll across the Downs for the best racehorse in the world - Eclipse runner-up Farhh is the second highest rated in the race but is a whopping 18lb behind Frankel on 122 which over the Sussex Stakes distance of a mile equates to about nine or ten lengths. Bullet Train goes into the race 29lb behind his stable companion on 111 and Richard Fahey's three year old Gabrial is 32lb adrift on 108.

Subsequent to his demolition of his Queen Anne opponents, I have lost count of the number of times I have been asked what Frankel has to do to top Dancing Brave's 1986 figure of 141 to become the highest rated horse in the history of firstly the International Classifications and subsequently to World Thoroughbred Rankings. My answer is that I believe he has to step up to ten furlongs and take on and beat the best at that trip before he can be awarded that accolade.

I am in no way denigrating Frankel and his achievements - he has been a joint-champion two-year-old, champion three-year-old and has already nailed the position as 2012 champion older horse; so far in his career he has delivered five 130+ performances with the promise of more to come and his average Group 1-winning margin currently stands at just shy of five lengths.

These are stunning statistics by any standards, it's just that giving any horse the title "of best ever" is a huge shout and one about which you have to be wholly confident and I'm not sure that beating Excelebration time after time and seeing off Side Glance (114), Indomito (112) and Windsor Palace (106) in the Queen Anne warrants it just yet - especially when one considers the glittering nature of the Arc field that Dancing Brave dispatched with such flare in 86.

And one final point on this matter of "the best ever" - the truth is we don't know and will never know who "the best ever" was or is. A rating is only a representation of a horse's performance, not of its inherent ability. If Frankel successfully reaches retirement with victory in the Sussex, the Juddmonte and possibly the Champion Stakes we probably still won't know how good he could have been - in the same way that we never found out the extent of Sea The Stars ability in 2009. His rating of 136 was as high as could reasonably be awarded given the horses that he beat, but what sort of marks could he and Frankel have towed each other to had they ever met? And who would have won?

We all have our own opinions on the matter but for now let's enjoy a wonderful thoroughbred and hope for another demonstration of his brilliance on Wednesday.

JOHNSTON'S GLORIOUS WARM UP FOR GOODWOOD
Even though there was no sprint Pattern race action on these shores last week, there was still an abundance of fiercely competitive valuable handicaps for punters to get their teeth into, which produced some excellent winning performances as well, writes Stewart Copeland.

The two that stand out both emanated from the Mark Johnston yard, which landed the feature sprint handicaps at both Newmarket and York on Saturday. I was at a packed Knavesmire on Saturday to witness the first of them, the 6f Sky Bet Dash Handicap, which was won by the largely progressive three-year-old Van Ellis. Mainly campaigned over seven furlongs this year, he coped well with the drop in trip to run out a ready winner by a length and a quarter from Gramercy, with the admirable veteran Tax Free a further half a length back in third. Rated 100 going in to the race, I've taken the view he's shown a further 6lb improvement in winning, and have awarded him a new mark of 106.

A few minutes later, though, on the July course at Newmarket, his stable-mate and fellow three-year-old Fulbright usurped that performance, just. Like Van Ellis, Fulbright has been dropped back in trip of late, and followed up his recent success off a 7lb lower mark in a valuable handicap at the July Cup meeting with another gutsy success. Competing off 103 in the 6f Boylesports.com Mobile Betting Handicap, Fulbright was up in the van throughout and dug deep to deny the strong late challenge of Duke Of Firenze by the narrowest of margins.

The form has a strong look to it, the placed horses all coming into the race in good form, and backed up by an excellent time as well. Fulbright's success merits a further 5lb increase in his rating, meaning a revised mark of 108.

On the above evidence, both he and Van Ellis could well be worth a shot at pattern company at some point, but with plenty more valuable handicaps to come as well, connections have a lot to look forward to with them in the coming months.
 
Glorious Frankel still on 140 after Sussex romp

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 11:28AM 7 AUG 2012

Whilst the majority of the nation were glued to the world's finest human athletes doing battle in and around London, those that turned up at Goodwood last Wednesday were able to pay their respects to the finest equine athlete on the planet and, once again, he didn't let them down, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

With upwards of 18lb in hand of his three opponents (including trusty pacemaker Bullet Train) it was always likely that the Qipco Sussex Stakes would prove little more than a leg stretch across the Downs for Frankel and so it proved.

To my eyes Tom Queally held on to Frankel just a little longer this time and he did no more than necessary in notching an easy six-length success - I have used third-placed Gabrial, reproducing his St James's Palace figure of 108 as a guide to the level of the race, suggesting that Eclipse runner-up Farhh (122 pre-race) has failed to reproduce his Sandown effort in running to 115 and Frankel has run to 131+, having taken the view that he was value for at least an eight-length success.

This means there is no change to his official mark of 140 but he can add a sixth 130+ performance to his CV while his average Group 1-winning distance now stands at exactly five lengths - stunning statistics

As mile handicapper, I now have to accept the strong possibility that I may not get the chance to evaluate Frankel again as he will move up to 1m2f for the Juddmonte International Stakes and a likely crack at the Champion Stakes - both of which fall in to head of handicapping Phil Smith's distance category.

I think it is a step up that Frankel needs to make and maybe, just maybe, a demolition job of the best ten-furlong horses Europe can throw at him might see his 140 rise even further!

I have been suggesting at various points during the summer that the crown of champion three-year-old filly at a mile was an open contest with nobody really taking the division by the scruff.

Having produced a strong candidate in Coronation heroine Fallen For You (117), John Gosden topped that when Elusive Kate landed the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville last Sunday.

It is always fascinating when the generations start to meet in the second half of the season and Elusive Kate stepped up on her 115 reappearance second in the Falmouth with a 119 performance to beat high-quality four-year-old Golden Lilac in France. She now looks the one to beat for the rest of the year.

STAYING POWER

With Stephen Hindle having headed south to show his support to Team GB's weightlifters, I was left with some informative staying events to assess, writes Graeme Smith.

The most high-profile of them was the Artemis Goodwood Cup, in which Saddler's Rock gained revenge on Colour Vision for his Ascot defeat, turning the tables as the pair again finished first and third.

The time was a relatively slow one, however, and the false gallop meant neither was able to run up to their pre-race mark as the field returned bunched.

I don't for a second doubt that Saddler's Rock and Colour Vision are worth their marks of 115 and 117 but the proximity of Askar Tau (up 1lb to 111) and several others rated below 110 meant their performances worked out at 112 and 114 - with Colour Vision again emerging as the better horse under a 4lb penalty for his Gold Cup success.

Hot on the heels of the Goodwood Cup was the iShares Lillie Langtry Stakes for fillies and mares.

Henry Cecil's Wild Coco went four places better than she'd managed behind Meeznah in last year's renewal in authoritative fashion and retains her rating of 113.

I got her performance on the day to be 2lb shy of that level, however, with the gallop again to blame for the principal's failure to drop the also-rans by quite so far as ratings suggested.

The French filly, Jehannedarc, was completely unexposed beyond 1m4f and I have her improving some 13lb to a figure of 107 over this extra quarter mile as she ran on from well back into second.

It will be no surprise if she improves further still given just how poorly placed she was early in the straight - perhaps a result of both her and her rider's lack of experience on Goodwood's idiosyncratic track.

The Queen's filly, Estimate, may well have lost second in the dying strides but this looks another improvement from her and she emerges as the second-best filly on the day under her 3lb penalty for winning the Queen's Vase.

The most talked-about performance from the staying ranks at Goodwood seemed to come in the final day's Toyo Tires Performance Handicap over 1m6f, with Motivado leaping to the head of the ante-post market for the Betfred Ebor following a most-authoritative five-length success.

Sir Mark Prescott's four-year-old picks up a 4lb penalty for the York showpiece in three weeks' time and, assuming that's enough to get him in the race, will therefore be 6lb well in compared to his new mark of 103 following a 10lb rise.

OUR TWO YEAR OLD HANDICAPPER ON HIS NEED TO SHED TWO THOUSAND POUNDS!

I must confess that I have a weight problem. I am about half a pound too heavy. This will come as a surprise to friends who think I am much fatter than that. Let me explain, writes Matthew Tester.

With the two-year-old ratings, you begin every year with a blank sheet of paper. As I start drawing the map, there are certain statistical tools to make sure that I am being consistent.

Of course, there will be years with exceptional horses and years with none.

But the pattern of ratings for all horses should be similar year on year. So should the averages and medians. If you have strange spikes in the ratings or unusual data for the average horse then something needs looking at.

The weather has made it the toughest of years in which to get a handle on the ratings.

And the problem is that the average of my figures for all performances is about half a pound overweight. This may not sound like much. But bear in mind that there have been about almost 4,000 two-year-old performances so far, which means that I need to shed two thousand pounds!

Looking at the distribution, there are definitely too many colts in the band 76-80 and too few in the band 91-95. The fillies do not look too bad.

But the gap between the average handicap mark of colts and fillies is a little high at 6.25lb.

Trainers can therefore expect a higher than usual number of collateral adjustments in the coming weeks as I work to get myself into shape.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Rivas Rhapsody's consistency pays off

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 5:54PM 14 AUG 2012

Finally the Olympics are over! My main feeling is disappointment, but a part of me is glad that I can now get back to some sort of normal working schedule, having spent most of the last two weeks working all sorts of bizarre hours to compensate for the time spent watching compelling sport, writes Mark Olley.

The athlete that I was particularly glad won a Gold medal was the rower Katherine Grainger in the double sculls. After Silver medals in the last three Olympics she finally went one better and I can imagine that the connections of Rivas Rhapsody must know something of how she feels.

Ian Wood's filly finished second on her first four starts this season, all in handicaps, and her rating has been raised each time. She went from 71 to 74 after her reappearance at Newbury. She then moved from 74 to 75 after Salisbury, up to 77 after Kempton and then onto 78 after her most recent run at Newmarket. However, this all came good at Yarmouth on Wednesday evening.

Usually a three runner h'cap would be straight-forward to assess, but the 7f Moulton Nurseries Fillies H'cap at Yarmouth was complicated by the fact that the second horse, Serene Oasis was due to go up 3lbs (from 74 to 77) for a recent close second at Epsom.

After discussing Mick Channon's filly with my colleague Stewart Copeland, who dealt with the recent Epsom race, we agreed that Serene Oasis would only now move up 2lbs to 76 and that as Rivas Rhapsody beat her by a length and three quarters she would move up 5lbs to a new rating of 83.

It is nice to see a horse rewarded for such a consistent record and, given her profile, there must be an excellent chance that she has not finished improving and further success awaits.

CERTIFY LOOKS MAY HILL TYPE

My big race at the weekend was the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket, writes Matthew Tester.

As expected, the finish was fought out between Certify - an impressive maiden winner last month - and Sky Lantern - who had been off the track for ten weeks since winning a Listed race in Ireland.

Certify won by a length and I have a rating of 106 for her, Sky Lantern having reproduced my 104 rating for Ireland. But there is good reason to think that each has more to come. The very slow early pace means that some of the fillies that finished close to them were surely flattered. Sky Lantern has strengthened up well since the spring and did not get an easy passage through the race. Certify raced rather keenly early on but saw the race out really well.

Connections of Certify are planning the same route of May Hill Stakes and then Fillies' Mile which they successfully followed last year with Lyric Of Light. The outcome just could be the same.

GHEEST RESULT DIGESTED

Even though I dealt with an abundance of sprint action in Britain last week, no performance came close to the excellent performance put up by Moonlight Cloud in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville last Sunday week, writes Stewart Copeland.

Run over the unusual distance of six and a half furlongs, Moonlight Cloud bettered her four length winning margin in the race last year with an even more emphatic success, bolting up by five lengths from her fellow French four-year-old filly Wizz Kid.

The only British contender, the remarkably consistent six-year-old gelding The Cheka, finished a creditable third, having been promoted from fourth after suffering interference caused by the third past the post American Devil, who was subsequently demoted a place.

Both Wizz Kid, currently rated 110 in France, and The Cheka provide a solid form guide to the level of the race, and that alongside calculating a figure based on the historical standards we keep for the race, it's not too difficult to form the view that this is as good a performance we've seen in the race this millennium. Both methods point to a rating of 121, a view shared also by the majority of my international handicapping colleagues who have assessed the race.

That means it's the highest-rated sprint performance we've seen so far in Europe this year, just ahead of the 120 by the Hong Kong-trained Little Bridge in the King's Stand, and Mayson's 119 in the July Cup, the best British sprint performance at present.
 
Excelebration time with no Frankel in the way
THE Haras de Fresney-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois was never going to crown a champion miler this year with Frankel having set his sights on York's International instead, but it still endorsed his superiority in the division as his perennial whipping boy Excelebration stepped out from the shadows to cement his position as number two, writes Graeme Smith.

It was a deep and high-class field that Excelebration saw off by upwards of a length and a quarter, and it proved a relatively straightforward race to rate. Having Excelebration running to his Irish figure of 125 - a middling if unspectacular performance judged against past winners - tallied perfectly with third-placed Elusive Kate's Prix Rothschild-winning mark of 119. That left runner-up Cityscape 2lb shy of his 124-rating, but that career-best figure had come at 1m1f and he'd never previously got this high over 1m.

The bare result suggests Moonlight Cloud was a shade disappointing in fourth but that was far from the case after she'd been shuffled back to the rear approaching the last 2f as the front three were striking on, and she did remarkably well to get as close as she did. Her Prix Maurice de Gheest-winning mark of 121 leaves her 1lb behind Excelebration when her sex allowance is taken into account, which equates to half a length at 1m, and that's probably a fair estimate of where she'd have finished with a clear run.

The first five drew clear of the remainder and congratulations go to Alan McCabe for his handling of Caspar Netscher, who increased his rating 7lb to 121 from his Greenham and German 2,000 Guineas-winning efforts in going down by less than two lengths.

The pick of the British action I dealt with over the week was Thursday's Group 3 totepool.com Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury and again that proved straightforward to rate. The Andrew Balding-trained pair of Tullius and Highland Knight came in rated 112 and 110 respectively, and with three-quarters of a length between them in first and third those figures looked a good starting point.

Historical standards for the race also suggested 112, and I'm quite happy to have the three-year-old Sovereign Debt improving from 106 to 111 after splitting them given his rating has improved with every run this year.

It's been Pattern races all the way in this piece so far and that could well be the destination for Stirring Ballad before long after she completed a four-timer in a fairly valuable handicap over an extended 7f at Chester on Saturday. Another trained by Balding, I have her improving from 89 to 96 with this effort, and while her trainer was quoted as saying he may put her away with next year in mind, she already looks up to being competitive in Listed races if kept on the go.

One final mention goes to David Simcock and Hayley Turner for their success with I'm A Dreamer in the Grade 1 Beverley D Stakes at Arlington in Chicago on Saturday night. The five-year-old gained the verdict over the strong-finishing Marketing Mix by a head - the same distance she'd been denied by in the EP Taylor at Woodbine, Toronto, on her previous trip across the pond last autumn. As part of the 'win and you're in' initiative, this success guarantees her place in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf should her connections opt for that route, though that will likely require a further improvement on this new mark of 113 (up 2lb).

FINE KIRBY RIDE SEALS HUNGERFORD

THE Betfred Hungerford is one of four Group 2 7f races run each season in Britain and as the 7f handicapper I would, obviously, be keen for at least one of them to be upgraded to Group 1 status, writes Mark Olley.

If it were to happen the Hungerford would just shade favouritism with me based on the level of horses it has attracted in the past couple of seasons.

Having said that, this season's renewal was a strange race thanks to the well thought out tactics of Clive Cox and Adam Kirby's excellent execution of them. Kirby soon had Lethal Force in a clear lead and with just over a furlong to run it became apparent that the remainder of the field had let him get too far clear and were not going to peg him back.

I based the race around Irish runner Alanza (108), in third, and Majestic Myles (110), in fourth. Alanza received the 3lb fillies' allowance and in defeating Majestic Myles by half a length they ran to their pre-race ratings. This means that I have Strong Suit running to a figure of 114, which is 9lb below his pre-race rating of 123 and I am going to drop that 3lbs to 120. This was Strong Suit's best run this season, but he has generally struggled and when looking at his career record it is noticeable that his Newmarket Challenge Stakes victory is his only performance above 117 and that figure is beginning to look more isolated. Things haven't really gone the way of Richard Hannon's colt this term and it wouldn't surprise me if he bounced back to his best at some stage.

All of the above means that I have Lethal Force running to a career high figure of 115 (up 8lb). The way this race was run makes me wonder if this could be a one off, but he deserves full credit at this stage. This is slightly below the 118 five year standard for the winner of this race, but is on a par with 2009 winner Balthazaar's Gift and 2007 winner Red Evie. Last season's winner Excelebration, with a figure of 125, set the standard.

ATHOS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR MELBOURNE TEST

I WAS surprised to learn that Mount Athos apparently needed to win the Geoffrey Freer Stakes to guarantee himself a run in the Melbourne Cup, writes Stephen Hindle.

I've assessed the vast majority of races over staying distances in Britain this year and on my ratings only Colour Vision, the Gold Cup winner, had run to a higher figure at an "extended" distance. That covers all races at a mile and three quarters and beyond, while Mount Athos sat clearly at the top of the weights for the Ebor, Europe's richest handicap, when they came out.

Melbourne Cups aside, the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes is a prestigious race in itself and represented a step up in class for Mount Athos, so it was well worth winning. The victory was made all the sweeter for owner Marwan Koukash as Mount Athos beat the Tom Dascombe trained and therefore Cheshire based Brown Panther, so in a sense there was something of a local rivalry about the contest.

I used Modun's solid-looking piece of form behind Fox Hunt in March to come up with Mount Athos' new figure, leaving Modun on 110 and raising Mount Athos to 120. Brown Panther ran slightly below his mark of 118 and goes back down to 117.

Masked Marvel's connections ran a pacemaker but he possibly went a little too quick and last year's St Leger winner ended up in front a fair way from home. That said, Masked Marvel has been disappointing this season as he has run nowhere near to the form he showed in the St Leger in four starts in 2012. There is little wrong with that form either. Brown Panther was three lengths behind him in second that day, while the third, Sea Moon, won this year's Hardwicke. Masked Marvel is now down to 112 having been 10 lb higher last year.

No such problems for Mount Athos, however, Luca Cumani's five-year-old continuing to progress to a very high level. He heads to Melbourne as the favourite for the race that stops a nation.

DO THE FIGURES SOMETIMES LIE?

PAGE six of Saturday's Racing Post on Perth's Summer Champion Hurdle carried the sort of piece all handicappers dread. Cause Of Causes was the horse in question and the implication was that he was something of a blot on the handicap, writes David Dickinson.

Fortunately for me, I was relaxed about the situation as I had already checked it out earlier in the week after a query. Three words sum up the issue - weight for age. In the Galway hurdle Cause Of Causes ran off an official Irish mark of 131 but he received 19lb from the third horse in that race Captain Cee Bee, who ran off 145, the Irish weight for age at the time being 5lb.

However, the weight for age in Britain at the same point is just 1lb and I assessed the race in that way, treating Cause Of Causes as if he had run off an 18lb lower mark than Captain Cee Bee at Galway.

The majority of punters went down the Elliott/Mottershead route and the horse started 5-2 favourite but could finish only sixth. He did again encounter trouble in running and his mark in Britain will remain unchanged.

The race was won by Kian's Delight from Absinthe who brought into the Perth race, not form from Galway but from the major hurdle at Market Rasen in July. Kian's Delight goes up 6lb to 132 and I have raised the Market Rasen race in which the aforementioned finished second and fourth by two pounds collaterally through Absinthe.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Dettori finds Foe a Willing friend in Ebor

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 6:01PM 28 AUG 2012

A multitude of high quality staying races on Saturday means my ironing may not get done this side of midnight, writes Stephen Hindle.

Probably best to start with Europe's richest Flat handicap, the Betfred Ebor, needless to say run at York over a mile and three quarters. One of the few races to have eluded Frankie Dettori over the years, he chalked off another of Britain's top races after Willing Foe prevailed by a neck from Royal Diamond, one of four Irish challengers.

Willing Foe is lightly raced, particularly for a five-year-old, and he has a good strike-rate, this being his fourth win from nine career starts. He was previously unraced beyond a mile and a half and the race panned out nicely in that respect as it turned into something of a test of speed at the trip, the gallop on the steady side until over four furlongs out.

He drifted left in the closing stages, carrying the runner-up with him, and had to survive a Stewards Enquiry. I doubt many would have argued that the better horse of the pair hadn't won, however, other than perhaps a few of those who were on the second at tasty prices.

Given the steady pace it seemed pertinent to stretch out the distances so as to create the fairest future marks possible. That meant calling the length and a half from second to third 3 lb, but given the way the first two drifted I think that is justifiable.

The best fit, I felt, was to raise the winner 6 lb to 107, while I would raise the second 5 lb to 104 if he were trained in Britain. It seems reasonable to think the third, Number Theory, is still improving as he had won his three prior races, so he goes up 2 lb to 99.

Fourth-placed Motivado, a neck further back, was one of two horses in the race (the other being Hurricane Higgins, who probably found the race an insufficient test of stamina and may also be better suited by firmer ground) due to go up in the weights, having run and won since the publication of them. He was 6 lb well in despite his 4 lb penalty so hasn't quite run up to his new mark, but the second from the race he won at Goodwood has since run well so I am leaving him on 103 for now.

A further length back in fifth was Area Fifty One, who I have running to his mark of 100. That said, he looked to be narrowly in front about a furlong from home and may possibly find further improvement back at shorter, this being his first try beyond a mile and a half.

The Melrose Handicap, run over the same course and distance as the Ebor but restricted to three-year-olds, went to the rapidly improving Guarantee.

Run at a much better pace than the Ebor, three hold-up horses filled the first three places but there was little doubting the merit of the performance of the winner in such a competitive event.

With half a dozen of the runners having won last time out, and all bar a handful of the entire field of sixteen having at least been placed on their most recent outings, it's surely form to view positively and, despite trouble in running behind, I decided to raise the first four.

Having won in good style, I credited the winner with a shade extra and raised him 10 lb to 105, while the second, Biographer, is another with a progressive profile and goes up 4 lb to 99 having been beaten three and a half lengths at the line. The favourite, Cardinal Walter, briefly threatened to make an impact but couldn't quite get on terms with the first two, yet still ran well only a length further back and is raised 3 lb to 89. Mysterious Man was not far behind either and goes up 1 lb to 84.

There were plenty of hard-luck stories in behind and the race should throw up plenty of future winners. For Guarantee, however, a date at Doncaster for the St Leger could be on the cards.

While the handicaps were of the highest quality, they were still just handicaps, and arguably the best race of all on the day was the Lonsdale Cup, a Group 2 over 2m which forms part of the British Champions Series.

Unfortunately it wasn't the most satisfactory affair as the pace was steady until halfway and the favourite and joint highest rated, Saddler's Rock, ended up making the running, which possibly wasn't ideal. He faded to finish ninth. Cavalryman, another on 115, also performed under par by finishing fourth.

That left the way clear for Times Up to return to form and show off his staying abilities as he outran them to the line to score by two and a quarter lengths from High Jinx.

It's hard to go overboard as to the merit of the form as High Jinx had been beaten in a handicap off a mark of 100 last time out, though Mount Athos, the winner that day, is favourite for the Melbourne Cup having since gone in again in Pattern company.

There are some fairly consistent performers further back, and it seems reasonable to assume High Jinx has stepped up on his handicap form, while he is still lightly raced.

On balance, I feel Saddler's Rock and Cavalryman have achieved more this term and I decided to go 114 for Times Up. The level also reflects High Jinx's second last time, which by moving him up to 111 would keep him on better terms with Mount Athos compared to the relative weights they carried that day. Lost In The Moment returned to something like his best only half a length further back in third, and goes up to 110.

Yet another notable staying performance on Saturday came at Goodwood, where Quest For Peace booked his Melbourne Cup ticket with a length win over Electrolyser in the Listed Windflower March Stakes.

The proximity of the third, Berling, a very consistent 99-rated performer, holds down the form, but Quest For Peace still ran close to his 111 rating.

ANOTHER GROUP ONE SPRINT HEADS DOWN UNDER

The Nunthorpe Stakes run over 5f provided the Group 1 action at York on Friday and it produced a fine performance by the Australian trained mare Ortensia, writes Chris Nash

She was seemingly toiling at halfway, racing at least three-quarters of the way down the field and many lengths off the leaders but produced a strong finishing effort to lead late and beat Spirit Quartz by a neck. There was alength and a quarter back to Hamish McGonagall in third and a further length and a quarter back to Humidor in fourth. As is often the case in Group race sprints this form was not the easiest to assess.

The winner had run to 115 when taking the Group 2 King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time where Spirit Quartz once again finished second. On that occasion she carried a Group 1 penalty so gave him 4lbs and beat him a length and a quarter - meaning that he ran to a figure of 107. On Friday she received 3lbs from the runner-up (the mares allowance) so Spirit Quartz was 7lbs worse off with her but finished a length closer to her. Any interpretation of this run has him returning a career best. If the winner repeated her 115 effort then he has run to 117 which is a mighty figure for a horse that has yet to win this season. I have my reservations over this figure but he has beaten reliable top-level sprinters like Bated Breath(118) and Sole Power(115) so I have decided to go with it for the time being.

Some sort of confirmation of this level can be provided by Hamish McGonagall (running to 113) who returned a figure of 114 when finishing second in the race in 2011 and who seems to reserve his best performances for York. In addition, Humidor (running to 109) had a previous best of 108 when winning a Listed race in September last year - I don't think it is unreasonable to rate a fourth place in a Group 1 race as a marginally better effort. The first four arrived here rated 115, 107, 110 and 105 and they leave here rated 115, 117, 113 and 109. Time will tell whether I have taken an inflated view of this race.

This form will likely be tested in the Haydock Sprint Cup next month, a race in which Ortensia may well take her chance. Her running style over 5f suggests that this 6f race will suit her fine but connections make no secret of the fact that she does not want soft ground. The next three home have been campaigned exclusively over the minimum trip this season so the Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp on Arc day might be a suitable target.


HITCHEN, A RIDE!

Even though the main focus of attention was understandably on the Knavesmire last week, it would be remiss of me not to highlight the excellent win of Hitchens in the 6f Listed Chris Blackwell Memorial Hopeful Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, writes Stewart Copeland.

Age shows no sign of catching up with this tough seven-year-old gelding, and back on the track where he finished third in last year's July Cup behind Dream Ahead, he showed himself as good as ever.

Held up off the pace set by another sprightly senior citizen of the sprinting world, the nine-year-old former Group 1 winner Markab, Hitchens came through with a strong challenge inside the last, to win by a length from his aforementioned rival.

In conceding 3lbs and upwards to a strong looking field for the race, I have Hitchens recording a figure of 114, which is the highest rating achieved in the Hopeful this past decade. On this evidence it'll be no surprise if Hitchens has another shot at Group 1 company, with an entry in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock suggesting that as a possible target.

Briefly on another topic, I'm responsible this week for compiling the weights for this year's renewal of the 6f William Hill Ayr Gold Cup handicap. The race's enduring popularity shows no sign of waning, with a staggering 208 entries for me to sift through. To put it another way that's enough for seven maximum fields, with a bit to spare!

The weights will be headed by the Irish challenger Gordon Lord Byron, rated 112 by my colleague Mark Olley after his impressive success in the Listed 7f Betfred City of York Stakes at the weekend. To further emphasise the quality, as well as the quantity, of the race, at this stage if everything stood their ground, remarkably only a triple figure rating would probably guarantee you a run in the main event.
 
Borderlescott takes centre stage

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:55PM 4 SEP 2012

Surely the most popular victory of the weekend came in the feature race at Beverley on Saturday when Borderlescott won the 5f Listed Bullet Sprint Stakes, writes Chris Nash.

This 10-year-old has an impressive CV headed by back-to-back wins in the Group 1 Nunthorpe in 2008 and 2009 and after the second of those his official rating peaked at 118.

His last win was in the Group 2 King George Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting of 2010 after which he was rated 111.

His 2012 form was at a slightly lower level prior to Beverley, although he had run well in the Stewards' Cup last time out and he lined up on Saturday with a rating of 102.

The race featured a field of 14 and they raced across the Beverley track. Borderlescott was drawn one and raced nearest the far rail, second placed Masamah came out of stall seven and raced towards the stands' rail while Confessional (third) and Pabusar (fourth) challenged up the middle.

It would be very hard to argue any draw or track bias. The form would appear to make reasonable sense with the placed horses arriving in decent order with all having run very close to their official ratings in one of their two most recent starts.

The reliable Ma samah ran to 107 when eighth in the Nunthorpe last time out and I have rated the race around him repeating that effort. That has Borderlescott returning a figure of 110 for beating Masamah by a length at level weights and the third and fourth (½ length behind Masamah and separated by a head) running to 106 which is what both were rated pre-race.

Connections indicated that Borderlescott may well take his chance in the Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye over 5f at the Arc meeting. He was third in that race in 2008.

The rise in his official rating to 110 should guarantee him a run in that event. Last year's Beverley Bullet was won by Tangerine Trees who went on to win at Longchamp - could lightning strike twice?

THE TWO-YEAR-OLD FORM IS TAKING SHAPE

At the moment the top two-year-old colts in Europe seem to be Reckless Abandon, who I have penciled in at 116, and Dawn Approach, whose Coventry win looks to be just a smidgeon behind that. Consequently, the title of Champion two-year-old is very much still up for grabs, writes Matthew Tester.

I rather expect Reckless Abandon to fight his corner in the Middle Park and Dawn Approach to go for the Dewhurst. Both races are on Newmarket's Future Champions Day on October 13 and it is definitely a date for your diary.

Dawn Approach has been lined up for a couple of races recently that he has ducked when the ground turned soft. Reckless Abandon is unbeaten in four starts and has already won the Group 1 Prix Morny, as well as the Robert Papin and the Norfolk, making him a credit to his excellent trainer Clive Cox.

The big two-year-old race this weekend saw a strong renewal of the Solario Stakes at Sandown. Fantastic Moon earned a 109 in winning a three-way photo but there looks to be much more to come.

Both second and third had won Listed races and been Group-placed before. The unbeaten winner was ridden with real confidence by William Buick for Jeremy Noseda. He came from last place to get up on the line. I expect the horse to carry on progressing and to play his part in the big races this autumn.

One other for your notebook is Mick Channon's Orpha, who is expected to run in Ireland's Group 1 Moyglare Stakes this weekend.

Her only outing so far was when winning her maiden at Ffos Las in taking style. But the yard is certain that she is superior to stable-mate Ollie Olga who is already rated 105 for winning Goodwood's Prestige Stakes.

The Moyglare is a race that Mick has won before with Mail The Desert, so Orpha is well worth watching.

AND ONE MORE JUVENILE TO REMEMBER IN A DIFFERENT SPHERE

The juvenile hurdlers have made their usual low key start to the season but the Gary Brown trained Hilali, owned by JP McManus, gave AP McCoy an armchair ride at Stratford on Thursday and, in the process, went comfortably to the top of my embryo figures, writes David Dickinson.

This performance does seem to be one you can put some faith in, his time was slightly faster than a 24 length handicap winner later on the card and he carried more weight.

That winner, Louis Ludwig, is going to a new rating of 108 so, the clock suggests Hilali has run to around 130. I thought AP could have won by another five lengths had he so wished and have given him a provisional figure of 133, my first juvenile into the 130s this season.

Contrast the time of the Stratford juvenile race with the one won by Red Tyke at Market Rasen two days later. The time of that race is five seconds slower than a very modest novice hurdle on the same card and 12 seconds slower than Claude Carter's handicap win. Using a similar time comparison, Red Tyke would be a few stone behind Hilali.

So is Red Tyke a hopeless case? Absolutely not, this 55 rated flat horse won this particular juvenile race for a second successive year for the John Quinn yard and last year's winner, Royal Bonsai, became a Listed hurdle winner as a juvenile and has already scored well in handicap hurdle company this term.

Add to this the fact that Royal Bonsai was on his second hurdle start when winning the corresponding race and the fact that at the time, he himself was only rated 58 on the level.

It is early in the season for such a performance but last year there was a similar highly rated performance over the August Bank Holiday weekend.

It came at Cartmel and the horse involved was none other than the subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame. Granted that horse improved very markedly in the spring but at similar stages of their careers I have Hilali the higher.

This blog appears courtesy of the British Horseracing Authority
 
Sprint Cup hero Society Rock gets Group 1 encore
The latest leg of the Champions Sprint Series was the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup run at Haydock on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

The market was headed by two horses that had shown quality form in Group-race sprints this year, Ortensia and Bated Breath.

Unfortunately, neither seemed to show their true colours in this race, so the "pecking order" in the sprinting department is once again left open to debate.

Ortensia was reported to have suffered an overreach during the race and was eased late on and beat only one home. Bated Breath was reported to have slipped leaving the stalls but was soon travelling powerfully just in behind the leaders.

However, he could find no extra close home and finished third, beaten two lengths. On his favoured quick ground, this effort has to be rated as below his best.

The race went to Society Rock, who arrived here with a rating of 117 derived from his previous Group 1 victory in the 2011 Golden Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. He had shown only reasonable form in his three runs this season but excuses could have been made for each of them.

On Saturday he left the stalls satisfactorily, raced mid-division and produced a decent finishing effort to win by three-quarters of a length.

I assessed this run as a return to his best so had him running to 117. His official rating will naturally remain the same.

Second place went to the Irish-trained Gordon Lord Byron, who produced a career best when winning a Listed race over 7f at York's Ebor meeting (running to 113) and bettered that here by returning a figure of 115. He is only a four-year-old (young enough to develop as a sprinter) and his form has a nicely progressive look.

Bated Breath arrived rated 118 but ran a figure of 112 in this race so there seems little justification to suggest that he is definitely a better horse than Society Rock. For that reason his official rating will be trimmed to 117.

The next three home (Dandy Boy, Genki and Wizz Kid) all arrived with higher official ratings (113, 107 and 110 ) than the figures that I have them running to (110, 106 and 103) so there is some justification for thinking that I haven't taken an inflated view of this form.

There remain just two important pieces of the sprinting jigsaw to fall into place - the Prix De L'Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc weekend and the Qipco Sprint at Ascot on Champions Day.

It would be nice to think that these races might clear the somewhat muddied waters in the sprinting division and provide us with a definitive leader of the group.

DANDINO BOUNCES BACK TO FORM

Personally, I enjoy both Flat and jump racing, but occasionally people like to debate which one is better than the other, writes Stephen Hindle.

Those who prefer the jumps often cite the fact that the same faces can be seen year after year at the top level, whereas Flat racers are all too often "packed off" to stud before they can become household names. The Flat racers who stay around year after year tend to operate at a lower level. One of my favourites is the ten-year old Kames Park, who finished second in a claimer at Wolverhampton on Saturday night on his 107th career start.

I like Kames Park because he is one of those quirky customers with his own ideas about the game, but he is likeable, particularly from a handicapping perspective, because he almost always gives his running.

Not only will he run close to form with almost every run, he will do it in the same manner, starting slowly before making a strong-looking challenge and then somehow managing to run on and shirk the issue at the same time!

In comparison, Dandino has had a paltry 20 races in his career, but I think it's fair to say the five-year-old is something of a stalwart when it comes to Flat horses at the top level.

In the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton, he registered his seventh career win, in the process ending the longest losing run of his career, having been beaten on his previous eight starts.

Initially in the care of James Given, Dandino shot up the ratings in 2010, beginning life in handicaps on 77 before ending up on 113 after finishing second in the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

He also had a strong campaign in 2011, winning his first two starts including the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket.

Since being switched to James Fanshawe's yard for this year's campaign, he ran respectably when placed on his first three outings and, after a below par run on soft ground, he again finished second at Goodwood, the third time he has filled the runner-up spot in as many appearances at the track.

However, I think it's fair to say his latest run represented a season's best. It does on our figures, as I have him running to 111, which is his best performance figure of the season.

There's a case for saying he has returned to his best given the second, Sagramor, who was beaten by a length and a quarter, is rated 112, and also that the third, Modun, half a length further away, is on 110.

My enthusiasm for putting Dandino back to 113 was tempered by the fourth, Mijhaar, rated 104 going in but beaten less than three lengths. Furthermore, by raising Dandino above 111 would be to say he is a better horse than Quest For Peace, who beat him on his previous outing and has won again since.

T he time is nothing special either and the race only really unfolded in the final three furlongs, so all in all I felt I wanted to take a slightly more conservative view than I could have.

As already mentioned, I plumped for 111 for Dandino, leaving Sagramor on 112 as we have him running to that figure when also second on both his previous two outings, his effort in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes behind Carlton House looking particularly solid.

I also have Modun running slightly below his rating but I am leaving him alone too, as he has a couple of solid-looking pieces of form from earlier in the season, including his third in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes recently.

Mijhaar goes up 2lb to 106, a career-high mark, but he was having only his eighth race and just his second at a mile and a half.

MONTERG CONTINUES ON THE RISE

The highlight of Stratford's well-attended Saturday card was the valuable Walls and Ceilings International Handicap Hurdle, writes David Dickinson.

The focus of betting attention was the handicap debutant Monte Cavallo, owned by Lynda Ramsden. AP McCoy's mount looked like justifying favouritism when jumping to the front three from home and was still in charge jumping the last. Within a few strides, however, McCoy was looking increasingly anxious and Smalib Monterg, from the in-form yard of Dr Richard Newland, found much the best turn of foot to win going away.

As the handicapper, to see five horses finish within three and a half lengths of each other at the business end is pleasing, but this was not the easiest race to re-rate.

The obvious horse to use as a benchmark would have been sixth-placed Laudatory, but his mark rose 15lb last time after a wide-margin win at the track. Such races are notoriously hard to assess in themselves. In the end, I opted to have the first five home on higher marks in future, while the next two home have been dropped.

The winner, Smalib Monterg, is clearly still on the upgrade and is unrecognisable from the horse that connections claimed when beaten in a Ludlow seller.

A breathing problem was reported that day and the tongue strap that the horse has worn in all but one of his subsequent starts seems to have transformed him.

Eight handicap runs since April have seen his mark rise from the initial 100 to a new high of 127 (up 7lb) after Saturday but those handicaps have now yielded three wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths. His progression may not yet be at an end.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Camelot owes nothing despite St Leger defeat

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 2:12PM 18 SEP 2012

In any other season, a potential Triple Crown winner would be the talk of racing throughout the summer. In 2012 however, we have been treated to the freak that is Frankel, and Camelot, a superstar in his own right, has been somewhat overshadowed as a result, writes Stephen Hindle.

That said, there was no shortage of attention on him on Town Moor on Saturday, his superstar status underlined by the fact he had a couple of bodyguards following him around the parade ring!

Camelot went into the St Leger unbeaten in five starts, including the 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby this season, and he was sent off at 2-5 to become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970.

Connections of eventual third Michelangelo ran a pacemaker in the shape of the 74-rated Dartford, but he set a surprisingly modest tempo through the early stages and it wasn't the test it could have been.

Joseph O'Brien still looked to be holding on to a fair bit two furlongs out but Mickael Barzalona threw everything at Encke just in front of him and went a few lengths clear. Camelot was then asked for maximum effort but couldn't reel back Encke quickly enough and was three quarters of a length adrift at the line.

I got the feeling Camelot could have won under different circumstances and he clearly didn't repeat the form he showed in either of his Derby victories.

Encke turned around the Voltigeur form with Thought Worthy and Main Sequence having been only third in that race. The former shaped as if not staying the extra distance, while Main Sequence didn't help himself by planting at the start.

It's fair to say Encke has improved, though not by the 12lb he was rated inferior to the 124-rated Camelot going in. Michelangelo's win at Newmarket in June proved the most reliable guide to the form in my view.

Although rated only 111 before the Leger, he can be rated higher on a couple of other rivals from the race at Newmarket - 115 justifiable on two horses he beat that day - and that seemed a sensible mark considering it is the same one Main Sequence and Thought Worthy are on, both beaten by the third-placed Michelangelo at Doncaster.

That puts Encke on 120, which makes this a decent rather than outstanding renewal of the Leger. It is actually a lower figure than last year, when Masked Marvel was given 122, a mark he has failed miserably to repeat since, though the placed horses, Brown Panther and Sea Moon, have done the form justice this season.

It's a shame Camelot didn't pull off the victory but he owes us nothing in a season in which we have already been spoiled.

Another footnote to what has been a most enjoyable Flat campaign came just over 24 hours earlier, when Times Up, whose trainer John Dunlop had recently announced he'll be retiring, won the Group Two Doncaster Cup.

Unfortunately, it wasn't a good race from a handicapping perspective as the pace was steady, while the third, Hurricane Higgins and fourth, Repeater, put up seemingly much improved performances.

With that in mind, I couldn't bring myself to rate Times Up any higher than at York, where he won the Lonsdale Cup three weeks earlier from the same colt, High Jinx, who got to within a neck of the winner this time having been beaten by over two lengths on the Knavesmire. Both stay on 114 and 111 respectively.

DAWN APPROACH TOPS TWO-YEAR-OLD PILE

It was a busy week for the two-year old. We saw major candidates for the big championship races performing at Doncaster and The Curragh, writes Matthew Tester.

The best performance was in Ireland where Dawn Approach, not seen since winning the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, landed his Group One in great style. Only one horse got within nine lengths of him for a commanding win.

The third, fourth and fifth were all Group winners and I have now moved him up to 121 - top of the European pile. He could be even higher and has already surpassed the highest rating any two-year old earned last year. I hope to see him run again in the Dewhurst and expect him to add to his record there.

At Doncaster, there were two very exciting duels of high quality. In the Champagne Stakes the unbeaten Toronado held on by half a length from Dundonnell.

For the moment they are rated 114 and 113 respectively. There should be more to come from each of them, perhaps in the big mile races like the Racing Post Trophy or the Royal Lodge.

As expected, Certify won the May Hill Stakes. What was not expected was how hard pressed she was by Purr Along with only a head to spare at the line. There were eight lengths back to the rest so they both look to be fillies of quality.

Certify had beaten the fourth horse, Reyaadah, at Newmarket last time but here increased her superiority by 10lbs. For the moment I am going to split the difference and move Certify up 5lbs to 111.

I am hoping that the front two will renew their rivalry in the Fillies Mile. Bring it on.

SOLE POWER'S HOME IN SCARBROUGH

Sprinters have been getting a fair bit of coverage in this section recently so it would be remiss if the performance of Sole Power in winning the Listed Scarbrough Stakes wasn't given a mention, writes Chris Nash.

He has been a fixture in all the main 5f Group races this season and his best performance of 2012 had come in the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock in May when beaten a neck by Bated Breath with Spirit Quartz and Borderlescott filling third and fourth.

The subsequent performances of all of those have been covered in this blog recently. He also finished third in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June where the Hong Kong trained Little Bridge was the winner.

Sole Power's sights were obviously lowered somewhat at Doncaster on Wednesday but, in my opinion, he produced a really classy display of sprinting.

It was the first time this season that I have seen him completely buried and he travelled for fun covered up. When Johnny Murtagh switched him into daylight to challenge he picked up the leaders readily and won going away. It was an impressive turn of foot and he was only nudged out with hands and heels.

The bare form is not quite at his earlier season level. He beat Jwala by one-and-a-half lengths. She is a progressive sprinter who was upped in class in this race but arrived with a pre-race rating of only 93, so has run a big career best. In third (and only a short-head behind the second) was Excelette who was a Listed winner at Haydock in June where she beat the subsequently much improved Spirit Quartz.

She arrived with a pre-race rating of 103 and her finishing position gives me something to base the race on. In giving her 3lbs and a one-and-a-half length beating (the equivalent of 5lbs over 5f) I have Sole Power running to 112+.

I will be advising my Irish colleagues that his pre-race rating of 115 should remain unaltered. Jwala ran to 102, which becomes her revised official rating and Excelette performed to a 105 - the rise in her official rating (to 105) being more than justifiable through her beating of Spirit Quartz.

The winner may well be off globe-trotting before the end of the year. Connections suggested that they will take a look at the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp but the horse has a well-documented preference for good or quicker ground and that is not guaranteed in France in early October.

However, if he gets his conditions, I'd expect him to run another mighty race. Options in Hong Kong later in the year may also be explored.
 
Ayr sprints produce some classy efforts
RYAN'S EXPRESS

This year's Ayr Western meeting saw for the first time all three big sprints, Gold, Silver and Bronze run on the Saturday, writes Stewart Copeland.

The fact they were run at all was a great credit to all concerned at Ayr, having been hit by a deluge of rain throughout Thursday, which washed out the first day of the meeting.

Thankfully conditions, albeit testing, had improved a good deal by the time I arrived at the track on the Friday morning, and with a promising forecast for the next two days, everyone could focus on the racing rather than the weather.

First up on the Saturday was the Bronze Cup, which was won by the three-year-old gelding Jack Dexter, a popular success with the crowd given he's trained in Scotland by Jim Goldie. Competing off 84, Jack Dexter had already shown his ability to act on soft/heavy going, and coming here off the back of a promising fourth at York, he showed himself a sprinter still very much on the upgrade with an impressive success.

His decisive two-and-a-quarter -ength defeat of Cheveton, no stranger himself to success at the Western meeting, means a revised rating of 93. No doubt connections already have one eye on next year's Gold Cup, and with further improvement surely to come, they'll be hoping he breaks the long wait for a Scottish-trained winner of the race, which stretches back to Roman Warrior in 1975.

The dust, or more accurately mud, had barely settled on that race when next up was the Silver. It produced a thrilling finish, with the Michael Dods trained five-year-old gelding Mass Rally getting up in the last stride to deny the well-backed Highland Colori. It's been a frustrating season for Mass Rally, with numerous placed efforts in big handicaps to his name, and on occasions appearing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

However there was no faulting his attitude on this occasion, keeping on well under a determined ride to lead literally on the line. With Highland Colori already due to race off a 4lb higher mark in the future after finishing second in a handicap at Doncaster's Leger meeting, I've taken the view he's reproduced that form, which means a 5lb rise for Mass Rally. His rating therefore goes up from 94 to a career-high 99.

With a two-year-old group race next on the card, there was just enough time for punters to analyse and dissect those results, and what clues they may give, before the main event of the day was upon us.

The weights for the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup were headed by the sole Irish challenger Maarek, recent winner of the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh, and competing here off a mark of 114. Indeed the lowest rated horse ran off 96, which emphasises the quality of horse which is required to get a run these days in Europe's richest sprint handicap.

Even though the aforementioned Maarek ran an excellent race to finish third, the honours on the day went to the six-year-old gelding Captain Ramius trained by Kevin Ryan, who was landing his third Ayr Gold Cup in six years.

Always on the pace, Captain Ramius made his bid for glory well over a furlong out and never looked in danger of being caught thereafter, coming home two and a half lengths clear of Regal Parade, himself a former winner of the race.

Captain Ramius had shaped with plenty of promise in both the Bunbury Cup and Great St Wilfrid this season, and with track, trip and going looking an ideal combination, it's no surprise in these quarters (and Pricewise!) that he posted a career-best on Saturday. That equates to a new mark of 109, having won off 100, with the runner up Regal Parade, also competing off 100, returning a figure of 103, on a par with the form he was showing earlier in the campaign. That means Maarek has run to a figure of 114, which is a reproduction of his Renaissance form and the highest performance rating achieved in a sprint handicap this year in Britain. Along with the winner, he comes out of the race with a tremendous amount of credit.

MAKIN MISTAKES

It's pretty common knowledge how the weighing out and weighing in system works and it took me rather by surprise that there was not only one issue at ‘scales' in my races this week, but two, writes Graeme Smith.

The second, and more high profile, came at Ayr on Saturday when Phillip Makin mistakenly bypassed scales on his way into the changing room after partnering Capaill Liath into second place behind Common Touch in the 7f handicap, and in the process brought about the disqualification of the horse and earned himself a seven-day suspension. This posed the obvious question of whether I adjusted Capaill Liath's rating or not.

In going down by a short head with two and a half lengths back to the third I had him running to a figure of 90 - 3lb higher than the 87 he ran off - assuming of course that he did run off 87 and that Makin and his equipment neither gained nor lost weight since weighing out. Herein lies the problem. The reason for Capaill Liath's disqualification was that the clerk of the scales had no way of checking that the correct weight was carried, and if there's enough uncertainly to disqualify the horse handicapping policy dictates there's enough for us to discard the run. As a result, Capaill Liath's rating remains at 87.

The other case I dealt with had a rather different result. This concerned Divine Rule, who was beaten a length into second by Wyndham Wave in division two of the 1m handicap at Kempton on Thursday evening. Amir Quinn weighed out at 8st 121lb, which equated to a rating of 48, only to weigh back in after the race at 9st. Quinn was handed a three-day suspension for the discrepancy but the result was allowed to stand due to the horse clearly having gained no unfair advantage.

As there's no doubt how much weight Divine Rule carried I was able to rate his performance accurately, assessing him as having run off a mark of 50 as opposed to the scheduled 48. That got him running to a figure of 52 and brought about a 2lb rise to that rating (a 4lb rise from his published mark). Those who backed him might well be reflecting on what might have been as the 2lb overweight equates to a length at 1m and without it he'd surely have pushed the winner mighty close.

AND FINALLY THE SMALL MATTER OF THE ARC APPROACHES

Little in the way of Group fare in Britain this week but plenty of it across the English Channel with the Arc trials at Longchamp, writes Stephen Hindle.

The Japanese colt Orfevre shot to the top of many ante-post markets for the October showpiece with his handy win in the Prix Foy. I felt he did it a touch cosily and went 121 with a shade extra factored in, which is a tad higher than my international counterparts. Meandre had won Group 1 events on his two previous starts but it is the third, Joshua Tree, who holds down the form, as he has never been higher than 115 in the past. Joshua Tree beat Fiorente in the Foy but had finished second to him in the Princess of Wales's Stakes at Newmarket so I decided to put them both on the same mark, 117. I was reluctant to go lower as Fiorente beat Red Cadeaux fair and square at Newmarket and Red Cadeaux is a fairly solid 116.

On our figures, Danedream, joint or second favourite for the Arc depending on your bookmaker, has achieved a higher level of form both this season and last. She earned 128 in last year's World Thoroughbred Rankings, though 123 is our best figure for her this year. Being a filly, Danedream would also receive weight from Orfevre in the Arc.

Saonois took the Niel. I have him running to 117 and he will need to improve to be major player next month, but that's certainly not out of the question given that he's a three-year-old who has a progressive profile. There is also reason to think he may already be slightly better than his rating as the Niel turned into something of a sprint and therefore the field was less strung out than it might have been in a more truly run race.

Restricted to fillies and mares, the Vermeille had easily the biggest field, 13 lining up for this year's renewal. It was also run at a better pace than the other two trials, and the time was easily fastest so the form should prove reliable. Shareta is a model of consistency and followed up her win in the Yorkshire Oaks with a two-length victory over Pirika. It's hard to believe Shareta has improved given that Pirika was rated just 109 by the French handicapper going in, while on our figures she wasn't even worth that. A rating of 117, the same as her pre-race mark, for Shareta, ties in with the third, and that is what I went for. Like Saonois, Shareta is around 10-1 for the Arc.

The blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
Angel comes out on top for Tregoning

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:29PM 2 OCT 2012

On Saturday at Newmarket we saw the running of the time-honoured Cambridgeshire handicap (first run in 1839), writes Greg Pearson.

As always, this was a hotly contested handicap with a strong case able to be made as to why the majority of the field held a realistic winning chance. Despite the Classic generation having endured a barren spell in recent years (33 unplaced three-year- old runners since Pipedreamer won in 2007), they held the first three positions in the betting market.

Bronze Angel scraped into the field by the skin of his teeth, claiming one of the final two positions on offer (with three horses equal on ballot). The Marcus Tregoning-trained three-year-old entered the handicap system off a rating of 81 back in July 2011 after his three qualifying runs. From that day onwards he has never stopped improving, albeit somewhat steadily rather than rapidly. He has now won four of his last six race starts and on three of his last five starts in handicap company. Cheekpieces were added three runs back so he is two wins from three starts since that gear change was applied.

Despite only winning by three-quarters of a length officially, I have called the margin 3lb to Mull Of Killough in second as I feel this would have been greater had he charted a straighter course. It was clearly apparent that when William Buick asked the colt to lengthen stride in the dip he proceeded to veer sharply right and wander across the track causing interference to Moran Gra, undoubtedly costing himself ground and momentum in the process. His pre-race rating of 95 will be increased by 6lbs to a new rating of 101 - Tregoning can take heart from the fact that the last three three-year-old's to win the Cambridgeshire have all gone on to win Group races next season.

Lear Spear (1998 winner) won two Group 3s and a Group 2 in 1999, Formal Decree (2006 winner) won a Group 3 and finished second in a Group 1,2 and 3 in 2007, whilst Pipedreamer (2007 winner) won a Group 2 in 2008. There are no guarantees in horseracing but I would be surprised if Bronze Angel doesn't follow suit and progress further up the ranks as he continues to develop and mature.

Mull Of Killough finished second having run off a rating of 100 and his revised handicap mark will be 103 (+3lb). Assigned to meet the winner Bronze Angel on 3lb better terms for a three-quarter length defeat - he has now placed in three feature British handicaps, already having been third off 96 in the 2010 Lincoln Handicap and second off 96 in the 2012 Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.

In third place was Boom And Bust and his rating has been increased from 104 to 106 (+2lb) and would meet Bronze Angel on 4lb better terms, for this one-and-a-half length defeat. Fifth placed Mukhadram who had run to his pre-race rating of 101 on his previous two starts helps to provide a level through which to assess the form. Beaten two-and-three-quarter lengths here I have him reproducing that figure on his handicap debut.

Nothing jumped off the screen as being desperately unlucky to me, although those drawn really high that raced in the group against the stands rail were probably not seen to best effect.

CHARIOT PROVES MOSSE FASTEST, NOT BUICK OR HARLEY!

Some good quality action over a mile at Newmarket last week was headed up by French filly Siyouma's success in the Group 1 Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes on Saturday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Paying her second visit to these shores this season, she stepped up on her third place (running to 113) in the Falmouth Stakes in July by posting a career best figure of 116 in beating Elusive Kate (114+) and the pacemaking Laugh Out Loud (110) by three-quarters of a length and a length-and-three-quarters.

Indeed, it would be entirely possible to have the race a tad higher using either of those two as a guide, but the presence of the 109 rated La Collina in fourth, plus the winner's previous achievements, lead me to err on the lower side for the time being.

I understand that Francois Doumen's filly is now likely to head off around the world and it will be interesting to see if she can shore up the level of this race on the global stage.

Just 24 hours earlier David O'Meara's Penitent had returned to the level of his Bet365 Mile success at Sandown in April when taking the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes. I have taken the view that third placed Premio Loco has run to his current mark of 111 for the fourth time this season, suggesting that runner-up Side Glance has returned a performance of 114, a pound below his current mark but the same as I have him running to when third in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot behind Frankel, and that Penitent has run to 115.

There was some suggestion that he and Premio Loco may have gained some advantage by being two of only three who raced on the far rail whilst the rest came down the centre of the track, but only time will tell us whether or not that was the case - and the figures of the first three do fit pretty neatly!

The upshot of the Sun Chariot and the Joel is that the older milers still hold sway over a relatively moderate group of three-year olds - the colts (Most Improved and Trumpet Major in particular) proving especially disappointing in the Joel.

The Classic generation did hit back however in the Listed Mawatheeq Rosemary Stakes for fillies and mares on Friday when the progressive Chigun struck for Sir Henry Cecil. It's not the easiest contest in the world to get a handle on the level of but I have raised Chigun to 107 for her success, the same as runner-up Thistle Bird (who got going too late), whilst third placed Moone's My Name is raised to a career high 105. Again, as with so many things in handicapping, only time will tell if that is the correct call!

FILLIES TAKING SHAPE

There are five Group 1 races for two-year olds in Great Britain and the first two happened last weekend at Newmarket, writes Matthew Tester.

The course staged the Shadwell Fillies' Mile and the Jaguar Cars Cheveley Park, the good news being that the top-rated filly won both races and ran pretty much as expected.

Certify, who has looked top class from the start, won the Fillies' Mile by four-and-a-half lengths and goes up a pound to 112 for her effort. This rating is typical of recent winners of this race so is well up to standard. It bodes well for Purr Along who ran her close last time at Doncaster and who runs in the Prix Marcel Boussac this weekend on the Arc card.

The ratings for the Cheveley Park had Rosdhu Queen narrowly top-rated before the race with many others close up on the figures. And so it proved. She won by one length but only 0.7 seconds covered the entire field of eleven horses. Although Rosdhu Queen has many admirable qualities, my figure for her now is only 109. This is the lowest winning rating for any of the last 22 runnings of this race. When they all finish so close together you have to say that none of them can be outstanding at this stage.

The eye-catching performance of the week was probably Steeler winning the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge earlier that day. He had looked to be crying out for a trip and, stepped up to a mile for the first time, he flew up the hill. His rating of 112 puts him in with a chance in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy where he is expected to take on the unbeaten Toronado who at 114 is going to be tested.

At the time of writing, Dawn Approach at 121 remains the highest-rated two-year old on my figures.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Saturday's meeting at Ascot saw the highly progressive three-year-old filly Mince, one of the rising stars of the domestic sprint scene, take her first step in to Group company, writes Stewart Copeland. It proved her sternest test to date but one she passed with flying colours.

The six-furlong Group 3 John Guest Bengough Stakes attracted a decent field, though her closest rival on the ratings, and in the betting ring, was the Godolphin-trained five-year-old gelding Soul, impressive winner of the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury run on similarly soft conditions back in July.

As it turned out those two dominated proceedings virtually throughout and fought out a terrific finish, with Mince eventually asserting close home, narrowly prevailing by a head. In chalking up her fourth straight win, Mince showed great fighting qualities to get the better of her battle-hardened rival, which augurs well for stiffer challenges, which no doubt wait ahead.

In terms of ratings though, I don't feel she needed to improve on her current rating of 113, achieved when an emphatic winner of a Listed race at York on her previous start. Both the standards we calculate for the race, and the form of the placed horses, suggest a figure of 109 for Mince, which is the view I've taken for now. Indeed when examining her overall form, one could easily argue she won despite the soft ground not being ideal, and a return to quicker conditions like she had at York may promise even better to come.

Connections are currently considering supplementing for the Group 2 QIPCO British Champions Sprint at Ascot a week on Saturday, and in a wide-open sprint division this year she'd go there with every chance. Even if she doesn't take up that challenge, she remains in training next year, which is great news.

MOLLY MALONE PROVES SO PRETTY

The Noel Murless Stakes, a Listed race for three-year-olds over a mile-and-three-quarters at Ascot, was won in good style this year by Biographer, a progressive colt who looks one to follow, writes Stephen Hindle.

With eight of the nine runners covered by around six lengths, it's difficult to take a positive view of the form, particularly with three of those rated in the 80s. However, a largely steady tempo didn't help and there's reason to believe Biographer will end up a fair bit higher than the 101 I now have him on, once he gets into a race which places more of an emphasis on stamina. His form figures now read a rather aesthetic 212121.

Over at Longchamp, the focus of course was on the Arc de Triomphe, but I was responsible for a couple of races over longer distances.

Molly Malone wheeled her proverbial wheelbarrow through the mud to a two-and-a-half length victory in the Prix du Cadran, the French version of the Gold Cup. In doing so she had the Ascot version's winner, Colour Vision, three lengths adrift in third, but given the underfoot conditions I was reluctant to take the view that Colour Vision had run to his best.

Runner-up High Jinx proved the key for me, as I didn't want to rate him higher than Times Up, who beat him in both the Lonsdale and Doncaster Cups and is currently rated 114. I didn't want to put either of those races up so went 113 for High Jinx, which also gave me a figure of 113 for Molly Malone after the fillies' allowance was taken into account.

Britain was also represented in the Prix Chaudenay over a mile-and-seven furlongs. The 104-rated Shantaram looked to have much better prospects of making a serious impact in this than the 84-rated Mysterious Man. However in the end, neither colt could trouble the judge behind Canticum, whom I and my international colleagues have running to 114, which is based on the fifth Pale Mimosa. It may be a little high but makes enough sense for now.

There was some British success in staying company over at Saint-Cloud though, with Quiz Mistress getting home by a short head in the Listed Scaramouche Stakes over a mile-and-three-quarters. Taking into account the form of her rivals, her rating goes up to 100. She was previously rated 94.

DROP IN GRADE PROVES A SKILFUL CHOICE

The Betfred Challenge Cup Handicap at Ascot on Saturday is one of the richest handicaps of the Flat season and it attracted a classy field, headed by Bannock, who came into the race rated 107, writes Mark Olley.

Recent Ayr Gold Cup winner Captain Ramius would have been top-weight, but he was able to run under a 6lbs penalty meaning that he raced from a mark of 106 and not his Gold Cup winning rating of 109.

In the race, Skilful was able to dictate and get first run on Ascot specialist Don't Call Me and the ultra-consistent Arnold Lane. As a handicapper, Arnold Lane is a great horse to have in these competitive handicaps because he nearly always runs his race. He has posted performance ratings between 96 and 99 on his last five starts, which have mainly been in big field, competitive handicaps and so I based the race around him.

This means that I have Don't Call Me running to a career high figure of 105 in second. David Nicholls' gelding has won twice here at Ascot, as well as finishing third in the Royal Hunt Cup and the Lady Jockeys Diamond H'cap, from just a handful of runs and clearly loves the Berkshire air.

John Gosden's Skilful dropped back into handicap grade here, after a couple of excellent runs in Listed company. His victory from a rating of 105 marks him down as a smart performer and his new figure of 111 is well up to that of many Listed/Group 3 winners.

Over at Redcar the Listed Guisborough Stakes attracted a strong field and was won in convincing fashion by Eton Forever. Roger Varian's gelding was ridden clear from Firebeam (108) who has finished second in Listed and Group 3 company this term. I called the two-and-a-quarter length winning margin a standard 5lbs and this moves Eton Forever to a career high figure of 113.

This compares very favourably with recent winners and makes him the highest rated winner of this event. Chilworth Lad was 112 last year, while Harrison George in 2010 and Appalachian Trail in 2007 were both rated 110.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
 
Dawn approaching champion status
DAWN DOMINATES

Thank goodness that Newmarket missed the sort of rain that fell on York, writes Matthew Tester.

When Group 1 races are run in a bog you do not find out which was the best horse. You find out who coped best with the conditions. The ground on Future Champions Day was as close to good as you could expect and the races worked out as close to perfect as any handicapper could have wished.

Going into the Middle Park, my top-rated was Reckless Abandon on 116 with Moohajim on 115. The two joined battle with Reckless Abandon coming out a neck in front. Both ratings stayed where they were and confirmed the levels we already had for the Prix Morny and the Mill Reef Stakes.

The Dewhurst was dominated by Dawn Approach. His sire, New Approach, had won this race in 2007 running to an exceptional 126. Dawn Approach went into this race with a 121 rating from his win in the National Stakes. There were a few seconds in the race when I thought that he might lose. On the downhill section he took ages to get himself organised. But he came up the hill in great style.

There is a difference of opinions among my international colleagues as to whether he should now be rated 121 or 122. The proximity of his stablemate Leitir Mor is the fly in the ointment since he was only rated 105 before the race. However, apart from that large fly, everything else falls into place. On my reading he gave an 8lb beating to George Vancouver. In the Prix Morny, Reckless Abandon had given the same horse a 2lb beating. So it makes sense to have Dawn Approach 6lb ahead of Reckless Abandon's 116.

We will work it all out when the European Handicappers meet in December. Either way he remains the top-rated juvenile in Europe.

PROSPER PROSPERS TO MAKE HISTORY

One of the phrases in racing that is often trumpeted is the lack of a gulf in class between top handicappers and Group-class performers, so it was somewhat pleasing to see Aaim To Prosper, a regular in Group/Listed company over staying distances, turn in a tremendous effort to defy top weight in the Cesarewitch, writes Stephen Hindle.

Brian Meehan's eight-year-old's last appearance in a handicap was when winning the 2010 renewal off a mark 20lb lower than the one he defied on Saturday, when he became the first horse ever to win the race twice. Few punters were celebrating, however, as he went off at 66-1.

That starting price was not hard to fathom on this season's form. Although campaigned in a higher grade 11 times between his Cesarewitch wins, Aaim To Prosper had not been in the best of form going into the race and was actually due to be dropped 2lb having been beaten around nine lengths in a Listed race, also at Newmarket, 16 days earlier. Never previously rated higher than the 107 he competed off, there is no questioning that this rates a career-best.

The second, Countrywide Flame, came in looking attractively treated. After a magnificent juvenile hurdling campaign which saw him take the Triumph at Cheltenham, Countrywide Flame advertised his abilities on the Flat with a smooth enough win at Chester, and he went to Newmarket 2lb well in despite his 4lb penalty.

Given the positives surrounding the second, I felt the third, Tominator, was a better guide to the level of the form. Previously with Reg Hollinshead, Tominator is now in the care of Jonjo O'Neill and will no doubt be seen over hurdles himself in the near future. Competing off 98 here, Tominator had never been higher than 100 on the Flat and I felt that would be a fair mark to return him to. If anything, I could have gone a shade higher, but that would have made him worse off with the winner of the race he competed in last time out and it will clearly take a career-best for him to defy a mark of 100 next time on the Flat.

This looked a strongly run renewal so there seemed no reason to credit the winner with any extra over the second, nor the second with extra over the third, so by raising Tominator to 100 that equated to 112 for Aaim To Prosper, two-and-three-quarters in front of him at the line. Countrywide Flame was carried left slightly by the winner but I felt it had little impact on the result and I called the half length from winner to second the usual 1lb, meaning a new mark of 92 for Countrywide Flame. Compared to the ran-off marks, the winner would be 5lb higher, with the second 4lb and the third 2lb higher.

With the first three six lengths clear, I don't have any of the other 31 runners performing up to their marks. To underline the toughness of this race, half the finishers were beaten over 50 lengths, with five of those beaten more than 100 lengths.

BRITISH ABBAYE INVASION SEES HOME FILLY WIZZ

The final 5f Group 1 race of the European season was the Prix L'Abbaye run at Longchamp on Arc day, writes Chris Nash.

It is a race in which British-trained runners have historically done very well and this year 15 of the 18 runners were trained on these shores. The French provided only one runner and she ended up as the winner.

Wizz Kid finished late and fast to collar Mayson and Hamish McGonagall winning by a neck, and half a length. There was a gap of two-and-a-half lengths back to the fourth (Ballesteros) so there are reasons for thinking that the first three have performed with credit. The French filly arrived with a rating of 110 and received 1.5kgs (or 3.3lb) as a fillies' allowance. As I had done in the Nunthorpe of this year, I turned to Hamish McGonagall to provide a le vel for the race. He had run a figure of 113 when beaten one-and-a-quarter lengths in the Nunthorpe this year and a figure of 114 when beaten theree-quarters of a length in the Nunthorpe of 2011.

In being beaten three-quarters of a length here I settled on a figure of 114 for him again. This had Wizz Kid also running 114 and Mayson coming out as the best horse in the race in running a figure of 116. Confirmation of this level was provided by Ballesteros running a figure of 107 which equated to his previous highest official rating.

Taking the view that he may well be a better horse over 6f I decided to leave the rating of Mayson unchanged on 119 - a mark he obtained after spreadeagling the July Cup field.

Unfortunately we will not get to see him in the Champion Sprint at Ascot on Saturday but it will take a dazzling performance by someone to knock him off his perch as the leading British-trained sprint horse this year.

Perhaps Society Rock who returned a figure of 117 when winning the Haydock Sprint is best placed to challenge for that title - his form receiving a timely boost on the Arc card when Gordon Lord Byron (who finished second to him at Haydock) won the 7f furlong Group 1 Prix de la Foret. The form of the Abbaye may well get an early test at Ascot as Wizz Kid remains in the field after the entry stage.
 
Excelebration impresses in QEII exhibition

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:39PM 23 OCT 2012

If ever a horse had regrets about being born in the same year as Frankel it would be Excelebration, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Five times he has taken on the world's highest-rated horse and five times he has come off second-best - but if he has developed an inferiority complex it certainly didn't show at Ascot on Saturday as he put on a dazzling exhibition to take the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

Often the decider in the quest to be crowned Champion Miler of Europe, the race was never going to live up to that billing this year as Frankel had already stitched up the title with his victories over Aidan O'Brien's colt in the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, but in scoring by a long looking three lengths, Excelebration catapulted himself into a position within the top-three turf performers in the world this year.

To my mind this was his best performance yet. Runner-up Cityscape has one outstanding performance to his name when landing the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan back in March when given a figure of 124, but other than that he has never bettered 121 and that is the figure I have him running to on Saturday, suggesting that Excelebration has run to 128+. Given the style of his success and the fact that he got boxed behind runners from two furlongs out, I'm sure his new published figure in Ireland will be pushing the 129/130 level - an improvement of 4 or 5lb on his previous efforts.

This level for the race suggests Elusive Kate has run to 110 (continuing a pattern of gentle regression in her last couple of starts) and fourth placed Carlton House is 7lb off the best of his 10f form at 112 - fifth placed Sovereign Debt appears to have reproduced his pre-race mark of 111.

A number of people asked me after the race if this was the proof that was needed to raise Frankel's rating from its current 140 - I don't believe it is. There is little doubt that using Dubawi Gold, and last year's QEII and this year's Lockinge as a guide, Excelebration had 'levelled off' at around the 125 mark - and one thing Saturday's race proved was how below form he was in a literal reading of the Queen Anne form.

On that occasion he beat Side Glance and Indomito a neck and a length - this time around he hammered them by nearly seven-and-a-half and ten-and-a-half lengths. This was a new and improved Excelebration but one that will still languish some 10-11lb behind his old adversary.

TOUGH MAAREK SPRINTS TO GLORY

Even though the main focus of attention was understandably elsewhere at Ascot on Saturday, the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Sprint still provided a fascinating race in its own right, writes Stewart Copeland.

At the head of the betting were the recent Group 1 winners Society Rock and Wizz Kid. However, neither performed to their best on the day, and the honours instead went to their closest rival in the market, the admirably tough and consistent Irish five-year-old gelding Maarek, trained by David Nagle.

Maarek's had a tremendous season, already successful in two Group 3 races, as well as posting a tremendous weight-carrying effort when third in the Ayr Gold Cup, which I highlighted in the blog a few weeks back.

Rated 114 prior to Saturday, I've taken the view that Maarek has reproduced that level of form again. This level of performance is what we would normally expect for the winner of this race (formerly rus as the Diadem) as the historical race standards we keep suggest the average winner is usually in the 113-114 bracket.

Admirable as he is, Maarek's best form still falls someway short of the best sprint form we've seen in Europe this year, with that honour being held by Moonlight Cloud's 121, achieved when an emphatic winner of the Prix Maurice de Gheest. As far as top honours go amongst the British horses, that's currently Mayson's 119 achieved in the July Cup, with Society Rock and Bated Breath, both 117, best of the rest.

THE NEW ONE FOR THE NEW SEASON

Jump racing really got into the groove at Cheltenham over the weekend and all four races in my division (20f+ hurdles) produced winners who recorded figures of 140 or above, writes Martin Greenwood.

Both handicaps were won by raiders from across the Irish Sea. After nearly five months without a winner in a British handicap, Irish trainers have struck with a vengeance in the last month and Bondage became their fifth winner in that time period when beating Medinas nearly three lengths, the pair well clear of a large and competitive field.

Bondage is a tad quirky and carries his head high but there is no doubting his ability and he defied the 12lb rise given after his Perth victory in some style, always travelling strongly and never looking in danger of defeat despite his ungainly head carriage.

His new rating is now 145, up 18lb from his pre-race figure, and if connections decide they don't want to try his new rating, they have the option of running in novice events as his first victory over hurdles only came in July at Sligo.

Bondage shares top spot in the embryonic highest novice list with The New One, who made it two out of two over hurdles with an authoritative success in the opening race of Friday's card. Coming into the race, The New One had the best form due to his wide-margin win at Newton Abbot over two furlongs shorter earlier in the month, and was made favourite to overcome a handful of promising types.

Like Bondage, The New One always looked the likely winner come the business end of the race and he was two and three-quarter lengths too good for Village Vic (received 5lb), who shaped extremely well on his hurdling debut, with the pair a long way clear.

Like The New One, According To Trev, who won the 3m+ novice the following day, is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. According To Trev is also two from two over hurdles and he supplemented his Worcester success in June by holding off Irish raider Our Vinnie by a diminishing head, though it is entirely possible he was idling a touch in front.

With some other promising individuals 11 lengths and more toiling behind, this race, like The New One's, looks above the usual standard for these races and I have rated him 140, with more improvement probable.

Also now rated 140 (from 127) is Action Master who flew up the hill after being waited with to land the 3m handicap on Friday. Like Bondage, Action Master is a little quirky but again has plenty of talent and despite not looking the most straightforward of rides he scored in comfortable fashion from another Twiston-Davies inmate, Viking Blond, with favourite and fellow Irish challenger Heaney continuing his improvement in third.
 
Excelebration at Ascot: the explanation
Following on from the action on Champions Day at Ascot last Saturday, I have been taken to task on various internet sites and by one daily paper journalist in particular, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

They all took exception to my comments that Excelebration’s performance in winning the Qipco QE II should not be taken into account when assessing Frankel’s final rating. I’m afraid I take the comment “How can these opinionated form boffins get it so wrong?” somewhat insulting in itself and feel that a detailed explanation of my thinking is in order.

In my opinion Excelebration put up two 125 performances last year as a three-year old – when landing the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury by six lengths and when four lengths second to Frankel in last year’s renewal of the QE II. In that contest he beat Dubawi Gold (117) by three and three-quarter lengths and Side Glance (115) by five lengths – these are important “marker horses” by which to measure his 2012 performances.

Having moved to Aidan O’Brien during the close season, Excelebration started the new campaign by finishing five lengths second to Frankel in the JLT Lockinge at Newbury – a four length gap back to Dubawi Gold (117) suggesting that he had once again performed to 125 given that the two of them had reproduced their previous Ascot running to within a quarter of a length. It was after this performance that I raised Frankel to a new mark of 138.

While 'team O’Brien' had taken the view that they would try and 'jump' Frankel with a turn of foot at Newbury, they tried different tactics in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot in as much that they tried to race Frankel from over two furlongs out – a mistake as it turned out as he paid the price through the final furlong and only just held on for second place.

The close proximity of old adversary Side Glance (114 - beaten a neck into third) and the German Listed race winner Indomito (112 – beaten a further length into fourth) suggest that, figures wise, Excelebration ran about 10lbs below his best at that time. I fully appreciate the fact that he paid the penalty for trying to make a race of it with Frankel and if he had purely been ridden to gain the best possible placing I’m sure he would have been a very clear cut runner-up, probably running to around 125.

So at this point in his career he had met Frankel five times and the distances between them read:

Greenham 2011 = 4 lengths
St James’s Palace 2011 = 2.25 lengths
QE II 2011 = 4 lengths
Lockinge 2012 = 5 lengths
Queen Anne 2012 = 11 lengths

And so Excelebration moved on to France where I was delighted he landed the Jacques le Marois by one and a quarter lengths from Cityscape, with John Gosden’s filly Elusive Kate a further neck away third – again general opinion was that he had performed to a figure around the 124/125 mark in securing the success. My thoughts at the time were one of relief that he had suffered no ill effects from the Queen Anne battle but also that the run confirmed him to be still no better than a 125 horse.

As I said in this blog last week however, I believe Champions Day saw a new and improved Excelebration. Let’s look at the facts:

• He increased his superiority over Cityscape from the Jacques Le Marois from one and a quarter lengths and a neck, to a long looking three lengths and three and a quarter lengths – and it was achieved in an easier manner – suggesting at least a 4lb improvement.

• He increased his superiority over Side Glance from a neck in the Queen Anne and five lengths in last year’s QE II to approaching seven and a half lengths – suggesting around a 5lb improvement.

• He increased his superiority over Indomito from one and a quarter lengths in the Queen Anne to approaching ten and a half lengths in the QE II – suggesting about an 18lb improvement!

Let us also consider the relativity with Frankel using the Queen Anne performances of Side Glance and Indomito:

• Frankel beat Side Glance 11.25 lengths at Ascot, Excelebration beat him 7.35 lengths last week – suggesting Frankel is about a 4 lengths (or 8lb over a mile) better horse than Excelebration (see table above of head to head performances!!).

• Frankel beat Indomito 12.25 lengths at Ascot, Excelebration beat him 10.35 lengths last week – suggesting Frankel is about a 2 lengths (or 4lb) better horse.

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Excelebration we saw saunter away with this year’s QE II was a better horse than the one Frankel was beating earlier in the season – I believe the facts stated above prove that. I await Mr Duval’s form based analysis to counter this argument and prove me wrong.

Oh, and one other thing. Frankel ended last season on 136 and Excelebration ended it on 126 – the difference 10lbs. Their current ratings are 140 and 130 – difference 10lbs. Other than the Queen Anne, the weight conversion of Frankel’s winning distances over Excelebration are:-

Greenham 2011 = 8lb
St James’s Palace 2011 = 5lb
QE II 2011 = 8lb
Lockinge 2012 = 10lb

How much more detail do I need to go into?

BARNS STORMS IN CLASSIC PICTURE

Britain’s last big two-year old race of the year is the Racing Post Trophy, writes Matthew Tester.

In the previous 21 runnings, the median rating for winning the Doncaster showpiece is 116 and recent winners have included star performers Camelot, High Chapparal, St Nicholas Abbey, Motivator and Authorised.

The key to this year’s renewal looked to be the excellent Steeler. He was 112 for winning the Royal Lodge but I thought that this track would suit him better than Newmarket where he seemed to get a little unbalanced on the downhill section, as he had at Goodwood.

Just like last year, we had a once-raced Aidan O’Brien favourite in Kingsbarns who won the race in tidy style. He was kept up to his work to the line, unlike Camelot last year who spent the minimum of time off the bit and won with plenty in hand.

Camelot was credited with 119 and my figure for Kingsbarns is just 1lb lower at 118. Steeler was caught for second on the line by the previously unbeaten Van Der Neer and each of them now gets a 114 rating. Two lengths back was the Irish Group 1 winner First Cornerstone who ran to his pre-race mark of 110 on my figures.

There are still big races to come in the USA and in France but it still looks like Dawn Approach will be our champion when the European Handicappers sit down in December and hammer it all out.

LADIES FIRST

Saturday’s Group 3 Worthington Champion Shield Navigation Brewery St Simon Stakes went to a filly for the fourth time in the last seven years, this time in the shape of the improving three-year old Hazel Lavery, writes Graeme Smith.

Charles Hill’s daughter of Excellent Art has kept listed or pattern company throughout the year and, after making the breakthrough at listed level in the Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket in July, opened her pattern-race account with a game defeat of the Gordon Stakes-winner Noble Mission.

Rating the race proved very straightforward with Noble Mission – who carried a 3lb penalty for his aforementioned Group 3 success – drawing two and a half lengths clear of the third-placed Songcraft, which was exactly how their pre-race marks of 113 and 106 suggested they would finish.

That meant an improvement in Hazel Lavery’s figure from 102 to 108, which looks a very good fit according to her Park Hill form, where she was second to Wild Coco (113) and had the 108-rated Estimate a short-head behind in third. Admittedly that Doncaster race is still rated a bit below the level those fillies’ ratings suggests but that has to be the case with the steady gallop having led to several with less exalted form also finishing close up.

The other improver from the St Simon was the fourth-placed Khione. Luca Cumani’s daughter of Dalakhani has progressed throughout her six career starts and appeared to relish the increased test of stamina that heavy conditions provided.

While pre-race marks strongly suggested the level I settled on, race standards also made a convincing case. The average level for both the first three and first four over the last five years pointed towards 108 on the winner, whilst that for the first five was also thereabouts at 109. It doesn’t always work out that neatly of course, but I’ll certainly settle for it when it does!

This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
 
So Excelebration ran to 125 all season (QA apart), but suddenly found 5lbs of improvement in the last one?:)
 
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