The Two Mile Chase thread

Aughex said:
The point was that both Vautour and Douvan, who some claimed to be better than Faugheen, were sent chasing and him, a 3 mile pointer was allowed to go into the 2 mile hurdling division. That tells you all about the sort of comparisons Tanlic is trying to imply using their overall time in CH and Supreme.
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The comparison is he was still a big baby with the frame of chaser of the future but still had the ability to have run in a Champion Hurdle.

Despite very little racecourse experience he wins the Supreme in a faster time that Faugheen win the Champion Hurdle on the same day.
That is the only time in his life he has been asked a question and he found plenty.

Many like him including Sprinter Scare at the same age found it all too much and never ran again that season because of immaturity.
Douvan took it all in his stride and hacked up again in the champion novices.

From day one he's blown everyone away at home on the gallops and his trainer who has had some brilliant horses through his hands was already claiming he's the best he ever trained before he ran in the Supreme.

He has improved no end since and nothing can get him out of second gear. Ruby was, as the presenter said, just lobbing along when Vaniteux fell in the Arkle and was just doing what he had to. You need your eyes tested if you think Douvan was under any pressure whatsoever.


Altior is a completely different type and will be a 7 year old when he run is the Arkle and was fully mature when he ran in the Supreme which is why Nicky decided not to go Champion Hurdle. Failure would have meant he would have been an 8yo novice next season.

Talk of Altior taking on Douvan is just plain stupid he has enough on his plate already.

Have you ever asked yourself why he is 11/8 for the Arkle?

The horse Douvan beat in the Supreme won 3 of his next 4 races and no Supreme winner had won the Arkle as we now know it since Flyingbolt but he went off at 1/4 the shortest price in history.

Altior beat Min by no less than 7 lengths who has won a couple of poor novice chases this season yet Altior has only to repeat his superiority over the same horse but is odds against???

The answer is lack of maturity. Like Sprinter Sacre Min was a big baby racing against a much more mature type and found it all too much.

I personally don't like the horse but Ruby seems to and by all accounts he's a different ball game this year.

The advantage of maturity Altior had should no longer exist as Min should now be a much stronger horse and that's what the bookies are banking on.

My advice to you is concentrate on his winning the Arkle and stop dreaming about trying to take on a horse who is rated 22lbs superior to him.
 
Grasshopper said:
I agree that it does seem somewhat incongruous, that of the three, Faugheen would be the one to stay over hurdles. It was probably never the plan, but circumstances change quickly; due to luck (good or bad - depending on how you view things) as much as anything.

If Vautour had sparkled in his work prior to the 2014 Punchestown Festival, then perhaps he would have run in the 2-mile novice hurdle, with Faugheen going back over 21f? If that had happened, then maybe Faugheen becomes the Gold Cup horse within a couple of seasons, and Vautour is left to do the hoovering in the Champion Hurdle over the same time-frame?

This kind of flexibility is a luxury the Riccis can afford, due to the depth of their string, and - combined with Mullins - it's hard to fault their decision-making so far. Looked at dispassionately, even Vautour's late switch to the Ryanair was a smart move, if winning another Festival race was the extent of your ambition.

Circumstances, both within and outwith connections control, have resulted in Faugheen staying over hurdles. It's perhaps an opportunity missed, but it is what it is.

What it isn't, is the result of some form of prejudice Mullins has against the horse - please bear this in mind.
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I actually said at the time Vautour would win the Champion Hurdle and Faugheen would go chasing and got that arse for elbow,:(

What the future holds for Faugheen is hard to say. Let's assume he and Annie are ok and turn up in the next few weeks and both win a race.

The Champion Hurdle would then look an absolute cake walk for either unless one thinks Yanworth is a Champion Hurdle horse which I don't unless neither of the Mullins horses turns up.

IMO Annie does not get the WH trip at 2m4f she's rip More of That a new backside but she lost to him badly in the WH.

I would say Harry is an even bigger challenge and one Mullins won't want to take on with her and Faugheen could go WH and she with her 7lbs CH again.

As for the future if they all stay sound it could depend on the likes of Min who is probably the reason they didn't step Douvan up in trip this season (at least not yet).

If he wins the Arkle and beats Altior then I reckon Douvan will definitely be stepped up and maybe even test the water in the likes of the Melling this year

It's not like Min has a future over further, all his Dam's offspring are 2 milers so far.

If he were to win the Arkle it would seem to me he will be the one to go QMCC the following year and Douvan King George/Gold Cup

The chances of Faugheen going Gold Cup at 10 years of age seem slim but stranger things have happened.

If he won the WH and Douvan stayed at 2 miles you never know.

I'm just wondering what will happen if the likes of Let's Dance, American Tom and a couple of other up and coming Ricci horses join the ranks of superstar

The plot thickens
 
Tanlic said:
As for the future if they all stay sound it could depend on the likes of Min who is probably the reason they didn't step Douvan up in trip this season (at least not yet).

If he wins the Arkle and beats Altior then I reckon Douvan will definitely be stepped up and maybe even test the water in the likes of the Melling this year

It's not like Min has a future over further, all his Dam's offspring are 2 milers so far.
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Min's dam Phemyka, has only had three runners over Jumps; the poor Belemage, who graduated from the AW in France, and the marginally-better Gaone, who has a handful of outings in the Provinces. The latter's best performance has come at around 19f (second in a Claimer), but even so, it is a stretch to suggest that "all her offspring are 2-milers" on the basis of the scant evidence available. And of course, Min and Douvan both share the same sire in Walk In The Park.

Where there is appears to be a genuine difference in their breeding, is at the Damsire.

Min's Dam-Sire Sainte-Estephe has produced no Jumpers of note; the best horse to have raced for him being the plater Lord Brex. There is seriously nothing to write home about, and again, no real evidence of stamina.

Douvan's dam-sire Sainte-Des-Saints is, however, an altogether different matter. I had never really looked that deeply into Douvan's breeding before, and the results surprised me. SDS would appear to be a very-strong influence for stamina, having been responsible for three classy (on their day) and very-thorough stayers in Quel Esprit, Quito De La Roque and Djakadam.

To be fair, I'm a guesser at this breeding lark.........but this does suggest to me that, of the pair, Douvan seems by far the most likely to want a step-up in trip, and - dare I say it - possibly even benefit from it?
 
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Grasshopper said:
If Vautour had sparkled in his work prior to the 2014 Punchestown Festival, then perhaps he would have run in the 2-mile novice hurdle, with Faugheen going back over 21f? If that had happened, then maybe Faugheen becomes the Gold Cup horse within a couple of seasons, and Vautour is left to do the hoovering in the Champion Hurdle over the same time-frame?
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Yes the Punchestown was vital in Mullins determination, but RR also had a big fight with him during that summer to keep F. hurdling and V. chasing. Without Faugheen's performance in that novice race when he destroyed for example Western Boy which Vautour struggled to beat few months earlier, he wouldn't have been kept that route. Vautour wasn't a 2 miler and I'm not sure he would've filled the same shoes over hurdles. Even over fences where the speed isn't that important he failed to put away Gods Own at the end of last season. I think WPM did the right choice with him going for the staying route as I think he would've been the main player this year for the GC.

Same with Douvan, like I said above he lacks a turn of foot failing to get away from a proper stayer in Shaneshill and an average horse in Vaniteux, and he failed to put a Faugheen-like performance in his novice year to force Mullins keep him hurdling. Also his size suggests he'd do very well chasing but I doubt very much that over 2 miles even over fences he'll be quick enough for the very good ones which fortunately for him at the moment there aren't any, except for UDS and Altior. The funny thing with these 2 is that if Altior beats UDS in the Clarence, then Mullins will send UDS for the Ryanair or France and then Nicky might chicken out of facing Douvan and keep him for the Arkle, which'll leave Douvan with nothing to beat. There's still Ar Mad but I doubt he'll be able to beat Altior so Moore will send him Ryanair as well.
 
"Big fight"? Have a listen to yourself.

You like Faugheen and you don't like Douvan.

I get it - and therefore don't need to see you trot-out your justifications (flawed as they are) for this being the case, every time either horse is mentioned.
 
Tanlic said:
My advice to you is concentrate on his winning the Arkle and stop dreaming about trying to take on a horse who is rated 22lbs superior to him.
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You don't know me, you don't understand me. I don't dream of anything you're suggesting. All my multiples rely on Altior going Arkle and Buveur Dair going JLT. If those 2 are rerouted I'm screwed. This is a discussion that started with you some months ago that compared Douvan with Arkle, and now with Faugheen. First of all we have no idea the form involved in those times, and secondly Faugheen would leave Douvan behind over 2 miles despite him being a 3 mile pointer. He was chosen for the CH for a reason and Douvan was sent chasing for another reason. I don't get why you keep hyping Douvan, like I explained some time ago if he'll fail you'll be the one with the morale down. Sure I get it, you're basing everything on the weak division over 2 miles after SS was retired but if Altior or UDS are allowed to run, we'll get a true measure of Douvan ability over 2 miles and then I'll have no reservation to join your party.
 
If you seriously think Douvan was "failing to get away from" Shaneshill in the Supreme, and the same with Vaniteaux in the Arkle, then the only advice I can offer is that you go and take another look at those races, and keep watching them until the penny drops.
 
Aughex said:
You don't know me, you don't understand me. I don't dream of anything you're suggesting. All my multiples rely on Altior going Arkle and Buveur Dair going JLT. If those 2 are rerouted I'm screwed. This is a discussion that started with you some months ago that compared Douvan with Arkle, and now with Faugheen. First of all we have no idea the form involved in those times, and secondly Faugheen would leave Douvan behind over 2 miles despite him being a 3 mile pointer. He was chosen for the CH for a reason and Douvan was sent chasing for another reason. I don't get why you keep hyping Douvan, like I explained some time ago if he'll fail you'll be the one with the morale down. Sure I get it, you're basing everything on the weak division over 2 miles after SS was retired but if Altior or UDS are allowed to run, we'll get a true measure of Douvan ability over 2 miles and then I'll have no reservation to join your party.
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No I am not basing it on that at all.

I am basing it on what my eyes of 40 years experience watching riding and owning racehorses tell me.

I was totally blow away by Sprinter Sacre at Doncaster and even emailed TFR and said he was the best horse I had seen since Arkle and he'd barely finished the race.

He was racing against nothing but there are times when your eye tells you this horse is very special and what he is beating means nothing,

Thistlecrack just proved a lot of good judges he was good enough to take that step forward and the form book was thrown in the bin

I supported Sprinter through thick and thin more than anyone on here and I never thought I would say I might have seen one better.

Sprinter Sacre's Arkle performance blew me and everyone else away. When he kicked at the 4th last the race was over in an instant and Cue card as good as he was could not get near him.

The way he flew down the hill then quickened drew gasps of excitement from the crowd,

Then came Douvan's trun. The race you so often knock but have obviously done ziltch research on or you would know you are talking nonsense.

First of the ground is good 7.3 which is in Sprinter Sacre's favour as Douvan is racing on Good to Soft 7.0

Douvan is overall almost 3 seconds faster.

Sprinter has gone a slower early pace but surely the way he took command from 4 out with plenty in the tank he has been much quicker than Douvan from 4 out.

Not a bit of it it took both horses 34 seconds to get to the 3rd last but 61 seconds they reached the 2nd last Douvan would have already been ahead 68 seconds in he would have been 3 or 4 lengths up and 6 to 7 lengths up 84 seconds in that it took him from the 4th last until the winning line.

Considering the ground after I discovered this and the unbelievable speed he has shown and hardly asked a question I believe Douvan might just turn out to be even better than Sprinter Sacre.Douvan.jpg The lager screenshot is made up to show the exact position both would have been in 84 seconds after the 4rth last fence

You may disgree with my findings but at least i put time and thought into it while you just blabber rubbish about how Douvan struggled to see of Vainteux.you gotta be having a laugh mate
 
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Aughex said:
Don't be silly, I like Douvan alot, I don't like poeple like Tanlic that hype him to no-end. 'Big Fight' are RR words: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt2D7pPQ8ug&feature=youtu.be&t=615
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I don't think I am over hyping Douvan at all...all I said is he will prove to be the best horse who has ever graced the NH turf. Arkle included :whistle: I don't see how that can be called hype :blink:


You're the serious one who claims Altior would pick up Douvan and carry him.....you nutter :lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
If you seriously think Douvan was "failing to get away from" Shaneshill in the Supreme, and the same with Vaniteaux in the Arkle, then the only advice I can offer is that you go and take another look at those races, and keep watching them until the penny drops.
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Yes my bad, I think I enunciated it better in my previous post, it took him too long IMO for him to be considered a proper threat to a top class 2 miler over hurdles, hence why, among other reasons, he was sent chasing. Look what Ruby had to say at the end of that season, Reporter: "the only horse that might get close to him is Douvan ? " Ruby: "I'd say Vautour, but he'd never have to get to him" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8a3stI_s8s&feature=youtu.be&t=181
 
I'm with the majority and this is an hypothetical question, but what do you think Faugheen odds would look like for the CC and GC if tomorrow Mullins announces he'll be entered for a chase race? What if he wins it? What if Mullins confirms he's going for the CC? what about the GC? Do you think he'll be anything other than the fav? I think the majority of us know Faugheen is the best horse in training, and that can be attested through his potential odds. He was to become the shortest odds CH horse in 90 years last season before injury. IF he's still alive(i remember last season reporters were allowed to take some short videos of him but this season no one -from the public- has been able to see him) and he's training well and top form then its no horse from staying flat races, hurdles or chases to trouble him and I don't think there were too many from the past either.
 
What majority? a majority of one :blink:

Douvan was a higher rated novice hurdler than Faugheen by Mullins and by the OH by some way.

Annie Power is fav with some bookies for the Champion Hurdle because her win through The New One off 162 looks as good on paper as Faugheen's of 172

Obviously if both run we will find out which is best.

You run a poll and ask which horse is the best in training it would look something like this IMO

Thistlecrack 40%

Douvan 38%

Faugheen 20%

Annie Power 2%

Maybe after Cheltenham that will change but as of right now punters are fickle and Faugheen is not the flavour of the day


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BVrp1s4G68

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWNDD_CLDwc
 
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betting is polling with money, people tend to be more serious when pushing a button that cost them money. Douvan is in no capacity a better hurdler, what Faugheen did at P'town in 2014 was the best performance by a novice in a long long time. If you'd be a SBC member at the time and read my punting thread you'd know that after that performance I said he'd win the CH on the bridle depending on how he comes into the next season. There was no such performance from Douvan, everyone knew Shanshill was a stayer and it took him more than a furlong to put only 3-4 lengths between. Look what Faugheen did to a stayer in that P'town novice race, Valseur Lido, once he quickened in just a furlong he was 10 lengths away and if Ruby had stopped after the last to pet him he would've been 20 lengths at the line.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoKR4Y0bHeE
 
I don't think you are comparing apples-with-apples, Aughex.

You are measuring Faugheen by what he achieved in his Champion Hurdle season, whereas you're measuring Douvan based on what he achieved in his novice season. It was always made clear that Douvan would immediately be sent chasing - not least because they had Faugheen (and Annie Power and possibly even VVM) for the Champion Hurdle.

The best you can say is that Douvan was on a par (more or less) with Faugheen at the same stage of their hurdling careers, and that's where any comparison ends.
 
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I specifically compared their novice seasons and mentioned that what Faugheen did at P`town in 2014 was something that had to be seen to believe, Ruby petting the horse a furlong out is not something he's ever done, especially with a novice. If he had pushed him after in the last 2 furlongs he would've won by at least 20 lengths and the performance rating would've matched the visual impression. Ruby instead didn't asked anything after the last turn and the horse still put distance between himself and the rest of the field like it was nothing. Choosing to keep him hurdling was a tough call as everything in his breeding and early career - PTP fences winner and the 3 mile graded race from early in that season- suggested he should be going staying chasing. Thats why if people were polling and choosing Thistlecrack or Douvan as their best horse wouldn't bother me because I know that if he'd go chasing the betting would reflect that in a most conclusive way, at least closer to the race when things would be confirmed.
 
The Punchestown run was clearly a high-class effort, but is not as unique as to are trying to make out. FWIW, Timeform rated them as follows, at the end of their novice hurdle season:

Faugheen: 166p
Douvan: 168p

I'm not suggesting that these are necessarily accurate, but it backs-up the view that they were much closer in terms of hurdling talent, than you are prepared to admit.

All are entitled to their views, of course. They're just not allowed to pass-off opinion as fact.
 
Faugheen 155 won the neptune as a novice and the Punch race and got a 6lb rise to 161
Douvan 160 for his Supreme win and he also won the Punch race and was given a 6lb rise to 166......let's have all the facts or none at all

Offical handicapping
 
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Aragorn said:
Maybe he's suggesting handicappers are guessers? :whistle:
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Tanlic is the one obfuscating about handicap marks on here almost daily, but evidently quotes them when they suit his argument. The point I made above was that the visual impression that Faugheen left that race was that he would've put a stone higher figure if Ruby asked him. The handicappers rated him as he finished 12 lengths, but in reality the figures don't reflect what Ruby was doing in the last furlong or that he didn't asked him any questions at any time. Whilst he hard driven Douvan in the Supreme to finish only 4 lengths ahead of a stayer. If anyone judges this as being anywhere close to talent as @Grass is trying above, then like he said its only an opinion which I strongly disagree and obviously in my favour I quoted the jockey of both horses who said point blank Douvan wouldn't even get close to him.
 
Obviously I intimidate you and that is why you talk past me and try to get the support of others to take your side....I on the otherhand never talk past a fellow poster as it is the height of ignorance.

Anyway let's have a closer look at you're great quote from Ruby. you are basing your claims on sunshine!!!!


You put this up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8a3stI_s8s&feature=youtu.be&t=181

Anyone with half a brain can see Ruby was having a laugh and said Vautour because he'd already gone Chasing when this video was made and I believe had already won the JLT. What Ruby was saying in Jest is he would say Vautour because then he couldn't be proven wrong as the 2 would never meet....... on the other hand Willie had said he couldn't wait for Douvan to jump a fence he might stay over hurdles he would have to talk to Ricci so the jury was still out on Douvan and Ruby wasn't going to commit himself just in case............which went right over your head



What Ruby actually thought appeared in a RP article well before the above.

This is with respect to Faugheen and Douvan as novice hurdlers

"Faugheen as a novice was quite weak and probably didn't jump as well as Douvan." Ruby Walsh Jan 2015



"He's probably a quicker horse than Vautour." "Vautour had a huge amount of pace and a massive stride. I ended up making it on him in the Supreme because he doesn't have a huge turn of foot whereas Douvan would definitely have more gears." Ruby Walsh Jan 2015



Willie Mullin after Faugheen had won the Champion Hurdle and Douvan the Supreme all he could talk about was Douvan

.

"Douvan could be anything. He is way more efficient jumping than Faugheen ever was or is and from a novice that is extraordinary,"

"I think Douvan is as good as we have ever had" said Mullins.

Paul Townend who has ridden every horse in the yard either in races or in work said

"That was amazing. I was doing half speeds everywhere. He had a little look between the last two fences so I gave him a little squeeze and I've never known a horse pick up like that. I've never had so much horse under me," Townend gushed."

Your man Patrick says he's the one who gets us all excited..Not Vautour RIP not Faugheen.......Douvan

The horse is the most exciting prospect seen in most racegoers lifetimes and I enjoy every minute of his races and defeat as far as I am concerned is out of the question.
 
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