The Two Mile Chase thread

the problem is you don't agree with anything the handicapper does, so what are you trying to argue if your metric is so completely different from any known rating organziation? Also based on your 20 lengths CC win, the comparison with SS and KS its obvious you don't know how handicapping works, the difference between trips and pounds per length used in handicapping, etc. so why do you even try to use the figures from it to argue anything? I remember the Arkle debate you tried to cover this with you being around back then. Well there are many around now that don't understand the difference between horse A and B class and form and rating, its not like you've been back then the head of handicapping or Phil Bull so that your methodology that you use today can be made to spot errors from past.
 
Aughex said:
the problem is you don't agree with anything the handicapper does, so what are you trying to argue if your metric is so completely different from any known rating organziation? Also based on your 20 lengths CC win, the comparison with SS and KS its obvious you don't know how handicapping works, the difference between trips and pounds per length used in handicapping, etc. so why do you even try to use the figures from it to argue anything? I remember the Arkle debate you tried to cover this with you being around back then. Well there are many around now that don't understand the difference between horse A and B class and form and rating, its not like you've been back then the head of handicapping or Phil Bull so that your methodology that you use today can be made to spot errors from past.
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Just for the hell of it here

Timeform’s pounds-per-length is approximately 25%-30% higher than the BHA. Pounds-per-length is not a method Timeform use you smart ass it is the end result from their calculations. They actually use pounds per seconds and have done since the late 90's to get to Lbs per length and they don't give out how they do it exactly to anyone.

Any fooker can understand the BHA's methods they are childsplay run by children.
I pulled the BHA up back in 2010 regarding their methods and their total disregard for the obvious and how robotic they were in their methods.

It came about when before the Dewhurst they had come to the conclusion Dream Ahead was 5lbs superior to Frankel.

After along drawn out debate on TRF I asked them how on earth could they come to the conclusion that Dream Ahead was a 128 horse?

When they answered me that was the day I realised how fucked up their system was.

Dream Ahead beat Strong Suit and Approve none of who could go a yard on the ground.

Ok it was the Middle Park but it was one bad renewal with the main danger hating the ground

Despite the fact there was no evidence to say Dream Ahead should go up any more than a couple of pounds he was put up a whopping 11lbs.

I had a right set to with the OH and asked him how could he possibly justify such nonsense and I could not believe his answer.

They based their findings on not Strong Suit but on a horse called Prolific Champion who had won a desperate group 2 in France was beaten into 6th in France by Dream Ahead.

They said that the form was solid and the rise justified in their opinion because Dream Ahead beat Prolific Champion 6 lengths further in the Dewhurst.

The thing was a monkey and was never at the races at any point..........but hey he won a Group 2 WOW!!!!!

The magic words GROUP 2 they don't discriminate to them a Group 2 is a Group 2 and to hell if it was a **** race your going up anyway

How did that all turn out for them.......

They are robots and it's got nothing to do with not understanding it's the exact opposite. They are a guide we all use from time to time but they get about 1 race in a hundred right and 1 in a million spot on.....they are not Gods
 
granger said:
So Nicky was talking shite about sending the JP horse over to chase around Min?
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All he said was it was an idea and would be fun but when you think about it BD V Douvan or Altior V Sire De Grugy (if he runs)

If he does intend to switch Altior to the Desert Orchid it could be a smart move if SDG is an absentee........a lot smarter that trying to take on Douvan
 
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Ok Tanlic, but as I admitted they are making mistakes, the best thing about it is that they correct it most of the times. But to blatantly call off any of their ratings due to some example is what I'm questioning.
 
He wont run Altior against JP's he'd be too scared to :lol:

A Christmas Story:

Nicky is extra cautious that he pleases JP ever since that dreadful day back in March 2009 when he had promised JP, who was celebrating his Birthday on that very day, that Binocular would win the Champion Hurdle

Nicky won it ok but for Raymond Tooth the owner Punjabi. Nicky was seen in hiding in the Turf Club downing a bottle of Brandy, not celebrating, but instead wrongly blaming himself for letting JP down.

Actually it was the 2nd time Binocular lost at Cheltenham when he should have won. JP admits that he should have let Nicky run him in the Triumph but his friends and staff had that much money on Franchoek AP they refused. To make things worse Nicky was interviewed and when asked about where Binocular would run he looked like his favourite dog had just died. He replied "I will probably keep him for Aintree" On that despite being in the entries for the Supreme he was taken out of every book with not a quoted price in sight. The story goes that Frank Berry called Nicky at the 11th hour and told him to get the horse to Cheltenham he's running in the Supreme. At 9am on the day of the race Binocular suddenly appeared back in the betting at 16/1 which was reduced to 10/1 very quickly and he ended up going off at 8/1C. Like someone had decided to twist the knife they had already plunged into Nicky henderson JP wins the race with Captain Cee Bee. I was told at the time he missed his final piece of work true or not I honestly don't know. I tend to think he simply wasn't mature enough to be running in such a hot race.

As for that Champion Hurdle it was not Nicky's fault. He left the riding up to JP's man AP who admitted he was to blame. Worried he would repeat his Supreme run and not get home he decided to hold on to Binocular but did so way too long which totally dulled his finishing kick and cost him the race. Of course AP corrected that error when he hit the front 2 out he following year and skated home and all was forgiven.


I see Nicky is now saying Altior will probably run in the Wayward Lad and he will leave Buveur Dair in his box. Guess he made a few phone calls and was told XY and Z ARE running in the Desert Orchid so good try but no luckies this Xmas Nicky :lol:

It might not be the case at Cheltenham I know if I were Buveur Dair's owner he'd be heading straight for the Arkle, Altior or no Altior. Everyone assumes Altior is the better horse I have my doubts it will turn out that way.
 
Another Superstar of the chasing world takes to the stage today and it looks like another race being handed on a plate to Willie Mullins.

Not that it would matter if he sent out half his own yard to take him on Douvan would beat them just as easily.

Unfortunately the chances of them stepping Douvan up in trip in the future may have taken a bit of a beating yesterday when Thistlecrack put up an excellent 3 mile performance.

Ruby was full of praise for Min but it must be said he had as little to beat with IT rapping himself and dropping out early.

Altior has even less to beat today as Nicky's policy of keeping novices in novice company spoiled what would have been very informative had he taken on Sire De Grugy.

The Arkle could dictate where Douvan ends up going. Should Min improve and beat Altior he could be Willies QMCC horse next season and Dovan mat still yet go Thistle Cracking.

Bloody hope so it would be the biggest thing since Denman V Kauto
 
I was thinking a similar thing Tanlic (worrying). It never works out like you want it to in racing though but if the Gods are on our side then a Douvan v Thistlecrack 2017 King George could happen. Of course Willie could just decide to mop up the 2 mile division for a couple of seasons, let Thistlecrack get over the hill and then step Douvan up.

The clamour for such a contest will be huge if they both do as expected in March.


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Well today never helped the cause much Douvan won as he likes and Altior looks as if he's improved yet again...........Min is going to be up against it.
 
Special Tiara was blowing quite a bit after his win . The horses Sprinter Sacre thrashed in the spring have done rather well since .
 
What a complete shambless this race will be, God's Own trainer just came out to say he's a stayer so he might opt for Ryanair. If Ar Mad doesn't win the Clarence House then he'll be taken to Ryanair. UDS we know won't be allowed to compete. Then we have Special Tiara who almost got beat lto by a low 160 chaser that was conceding him 6 pounds. Then there is Sire De Grugy who's been a great story but has been exposed plenty times to not be quite at the top level.

I can't believe Nicky doesn't sends Altior for the race, he's didn't do it with Sprinter but back then we had Big Zeb, Finian's Rainbow & Sizing Europe all capable of running to 175+ but now the best there is Douvan who can run to 170 and he beat a single horse all his career. Altior would at least make it an interesting affair, right now it looks a desperate race.
 
Aughex said:
What a complete shambless this race will be, God's Own trainer just came out to say he's a stayer so he might opt for Ryanair. If Ar Mad doesn't win the Clarence House then he'll be taken to Ryanair. UDS we know won't be allowed to compete. Then we have Special Tiara who almost got beat lto by a low 160 chaser that was conceding him 6 pounds. Then there is Sire De Grugy who's been a great story but has been exposed plenty times to not be quite at the top level.

I can't believe Nicky doesn't sends Altior for the race, he's didn't do it with Sprinter but back then we had Big Zeb, Finian's Rainbow & Sizing Europe all capable of running to 175+ but now the best there is Douvan who can run to 170 and he beat a single horse all his career. Altior would at least make it an interesting affair, right now it looks a desperate race.
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Should be a good race for ew multiples, particularly when NRNB comes into play, which won't be long for the big 4 races.

Sir Valentino looks to be the more likely runner from the Tom George yard, looks to be an improver 10/1 to finish in the first three could be very generous if it cuts up as much as it looks likely to do.

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Augie..You ever think of doing research before typing :blink:

Douvan is currently rated 180P by Timeform and that's right up there with where Sprinter Sacre was at this time in his career. He's higher rated than any of the 3 you mention

Altior is a novice and rated exactly 22lbs behind him by Timeform and about 10 lbs behind where Sprinter was at this point in his career.

Basically you are therefor telling us Nicky would have to be mad to run him in the QMCC you just don't know it.
 
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Tanlic, I remember once asking you to name a 165 chaser that Douvan beat, or an 155 hurdler? I researched it believe me, but there's nothing in behind to suggest what you're buying into with Douvan. His TF master rating resembles the UDS hype of last year, they also had him at 180 in case you didn't knew. Guess where he ended after he met some quality horses? Altior I reckon will beat Douvan doing handstands, the only question for me is when will Nicky decide to do it.

Other than that, the CC this year looks awful and as I've explained there's no horse(outside UDS) that can put up an 170+ figure to beat Douvan. UDS will be sent to France, he won't be allowed to crush the dream. Mullins likes Douvan as much as Hurricane Fly so he seems to do everything to keep the hype going. Yes there's play for e/w but the trainers are running so scared you wonder what will the final field look like. Ar Mad needs to win the Clarence so that he can be given the chance in the CC!

You and TF based everything on Douvan being able to improve to 180 while I'm not that convinced, his Supreme was so overrated beating a stayer by 4 lengths, then in the Arkle he couldn't get rid of Vaniteux. I can't get away from these 2 facts and I need see evidence on track that he's the horse you, TF and that many others believe he's already.
 
WTF are you talking about man? You and TF based everything on Douvan being able to improve to 180 He is already regarded as a 180 plus horse by TF

Have a look at the figures and it will give you an idea why Nicky Henderson has no intentions on taking on Douvan

Sprinter was always ridden to change gear between 4 out and 3 out and nothing could live with him he was so fast.

What Nicky knows and Timeform discovered that even on Slower ground Douvan actually covered the ground from the 4th last 4 lengths one time and 12 lengths faster on another occasion

His QMCC win was on very slow ground so the time was also slow and is of now help here.

Despite the fact Sprinter Sacre won the QMCC and followed it up with an outstanding performance at Sandown Douvan was made 1/1 for the QMCC and SS 5/1

These figure are the exact sectional times for the last 4 fences at Cheltenham and you can clearly see Douvan's time is superior.

You knock his Supreme form but did you know he covered the last 3 hurdles faster than Faugheen without coming off the bridle?





4 out 2 28 148 2 26 146 2 25 145
3 out 3 3 183 35 2 59 179 33 2 59 179 34
2 out 3 29 209 26 3 28 208 29 3 27 207 28
Last 3 37 217 8 3 36 216 8 3 35 215 8
W.P. 3 53 233 16 3 52 232 16 3 53 233 18
85 86 88
Good to soft 7.0 Good 7.3 Good 7.3
Douvan Sprinter Sacre Sprinter Sacre


Never came out as planned but basically Douvan did it in 85 seconds on G/soft ground Sprinter's best time was 86 seconds on good ground.

Don't take my word for it watch the replays
 
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Tanlic said:
BTW what is Timeforms rating for Sizing John Simply Ned and Black Hercules ?? I think you might find a couple are rated 165 with them
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Black Hercules 156. Simply Ned is rated 158 and Sizing John 157.

As for your above time comparison, I wouldn't dare compare even the flat mile overall times or finishing effort, let alone over jumps. Only the sectionals(that determine the pace for every stage of the race) can be useful to compare a SINGLE horse performance to another, not their superiority.

Tanlic said:
You knock his Supreme form but did you know he covered the last 3 hurdles faster than Faugheen without coming off the bridle?
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Here's Faugheen CH closing sectional: (3.85f): 54.30s and here's Douvan for his Supreme: Closing Sectional: (3.85f): 55.90s. That doesn't take into account how beautiful Douvan jumped every hurdle, while Faugheen was losing time at some of his, plus his hampering with Jezki 2 out. Douvan was also ridden mid-pack and was not put into race until 3 out, while Faugheen was at the forefront the whole race.
 
I beg your pardon it was the overall time that was much faster yet Douvan still matched Faugheen for speed over the last 2 hurdle.

The exact opposite happened when Annie Power put up a much faster time than Altior but was a couple of seconds slower than Altior who had much more in reserve having gone such a slow gallop.

That is pretty much par for the course but it speaks volumes about how good Douvan is that he could match Faugheen stride for stride after going such a strong gallop throughout.

That of course is part of the reason he is the joint highest rated horse running today.
 
I'm not sure where you're heading with this comparison though, you forget that it was the 3 mile PTPer Faugheen that was kept hurdling and for the CH, while Douvan was sent chasing. If you watch his Supreme you'll notice it took him a furlong to get away from Shaneshill and in his Arkle he barely could get away from Vaniteux. As I said for me the jury is still out if he can do it against a proper 170 tsyrf 2 mile chaser like UDS for example. As for being the highest rated chaser, he's not, he's 3 lbs behind Don Cossack on the TF scale.

You should be worried about Altior though, as its the second time he gets an entry in a race for older horses and if he succeeds Nicky is more likely than not to send him CC as he doesn't have a valid contender anyway while he'd still have Buveur Dair for the Arkle.
 
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It was Vautour who was sent chasing, when they decided to point Faugheen at the Champion Hurdle. Douvan didn't go chasing until the following season.

Given the subsequent exploits of both Vautour and Faugheen in their respective disciplines, it is a little harsh to question whether WPM got that decision right or not.
 
The point was that both Vautour and Douvan, who some claimed to be better than Faugheen, were sent chasing and him, a 3 mile pointer was allowed to go into the 2 mile hurdling division. That tells you all about the sort of comparisons Tanlic is trying to imply using their overall time in CH and Supreme.
 
I agree that it does seem somewhat incongruous, that of the three, Faugheen would be the one to stay over hurdles. It was probably never the plan, but circumstances change quickly; due to luck (good or bad - depending on how you view things) as much as anything.

If Vautour had sparkled in his work prior to the 2014 Punchestown Festival, then perhaps he would have run in the 2-mile novice hurdle, with Faugheen going back over 21f? If that had happened, then maybe Faugheen becomes the Gold Cup horse within a couple of seasons, and Vautour is left to do the hoovering in the Champion Hurdle over the same time-frame?

This kind of flexibility is a luxury the Riccis can afford, due to the depth of their string, and - combined with Mullins - it's hard to fault their decision-making so far. Looked at dispassionately, even Vautour's late switch to the Ryanair was a smart move, if winning another Festival race was the extent of your ambition.

Circumstances, both within and outwith connections control, have resulted in Faugheen staying over hurdles. It's perhaps an opportunity missed, but it is what it is.

What it isn't, is the result of some form of prejudice Mullins has against the horse - please bear this in mind.
 
Good post Grass.

No different to a top football side having the ability to rotate players, use depifferent squads for different competitions.

Mullins is hungry for Cheltenham and grade 1 winners. He will run his horses therefore to maximise his chances.

He is far from daft unlike some of the posting on here.
 
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