The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Flash said:
I believe I read somewhere Swedish Chef that the trainer has stated he doesn't think it will stay 3 miles as its too keen so will run in the Champion Hurdle. Couldn't have it personally. Somebody else earlier mentioned that Henderson may require a pacemaker for My Tent and Peace and Co to help them settle: It wouldn't surprise me if Top Notch ran here and fulfilled that exact job. I wouldn't particularly be concerned if they didn't though as there are 3 or 4 in there who have either led or raced prominently this season. Plus its a Champion Hurdle, they either go fast or very fast!
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Yes he did Flash, I actually found it and posted it http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rac...ina-fears.html I personally think many are underestimating his chances especially if the ground were to come up soft or worse. I agree with most on here that a reproduction of the Arctic Fire form from last year will see him win but if he has an off day then this race is wide open. Camping Ground's run in the Imperial Cup last season over 2m leaves me in no doubt he is a class 2 miler. He was 1L behind Rayvin Black that day giving RB 24lb. Rayvin Black gave The New One a scar before being btn just over 2L in receipt of 8lb. In that same Imperial Cup CG had Thistlecrack just over 1L behind him giving Thistlecrack 15lb.

Camping Ground also beat Lil Rockerfella 11l in receipt of 4lb and Top Notch 20L+ in the Rekeel Hurdle and the distances could have been further.

You can compare the form of nearly all the British runners (except My Tent or Yours) and Sempre Medici and make a very good case for Camping Ground to beat them. That would leave Arctic Fire, Nicholas Canyon, My Tent Or Yours, Annie Power & Camping Ground. Clearly on form shown Arctic Fire is the one to beat but I think Camping Ground has the potential to be a top-class 2 miler.

Current Official ratings have.

Arctic Fire 164 - I think he is better than that

Camping Ground 163 - I think he has the potential to better than that

Annie Power 162 - A very good mare but I have serious doubts about her in a Champion Hurdle against the boys

My Tent Or Yours 161? - What horse will turn up?

The New One 161 - I think that is as good as he is and have seen form lines that make me think Camping Ground could be much better.

Nicholas Canyon 160 - possibly better than that imo?

The rest imo are low to midhigh 150 horses

So on official figures and form lines I see Camping Ground as the potential value in the race. His Imperial Cup run and Relkeel run convince me he could be a class 2 miler.
 
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swedish chef said:
Current Official ratings have.

Arctic Fire 164 - I think he is better than that

Camping Ground 163 - I think he has the potential to better than that

Annie Power 162 - A very good mare but I have serious doubts about her in a Champion Hurdle against the boys

My Tent Or Yours 161? - What horse will turn up?

The New One 161 - I think that is as good as he is and have seen form lines that make me think Camping Ground could be much better.

Nicholas Canyon 160 - possibly better than that imo?
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But the mare will be getting 7lbs.

Not saying I fancy her for the race. Just saying.
 
Why have Sempre Medici in the race if he wasn't Ricci's reserve? Think and hope that Annie will get her Grade 1 Cheltenham chance in the Mares with VVM in the Ryanair (Ruby says VVM not good enough for WH). Next year, with Limini around, she might not even be Ricci's best mare.
 
i'm not a fan of AP in the CH ..but she could do a Hardy Eustace against a weak field..as DO points out..she is getting a 7 length start against horses rated the same as her. Its not a strong field unless MTOY comes back to his best.

The 7lb is a big deal against the current field..its not like she is a hold up stamina 2.5 miler..it will be..catch me if you can against similar level horses...i stay further so will try and take sting out of others sort of scenario.

The race is my favourite of the festival usually...now its just ho hum for me..i'd still stick UDS in it if he were mine..its a bigger prize than the CC..without the chance of falling at the bigger obstacle. UDS would eat that field
 
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i have a nagging doubt too..but i also see a scenario where she goes out front..and just what is going to pass her?..she won't be stopping. Arctic Fire is a good marker horse..but is he a horse that can actually win a race?..he isn't a cast iron winner for Mullins..and neither is AP..thats why i think the only cast iron winner in it without any doubts is UDS
 
but Hardy eustace with his front running style managed it..its not like she is a hold up stamina laden critter..she will go fractions that play to her strengths..will probably set a pace that will make sure her extra staying ability will count. if she were a hold up type..i wouldn't consider her tbh

over just 2m2f ...2 races ago she beat a 142 hoss10 lengths..could have been any distance. To me she could run to her mark over 2m0.5f and with the 7lb it could take a 170 hoss to beat her

on paper..in this field..she definately has a chance better than a lot of them...still not as good a chance as UDS though:)
 
EC1 said:
The race is my favourite of the festival usually...now its just ho hum for me..
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Mine too EC, along with the Supreme but what had effectively become a likely walkover - where my only serious bet in the race was on the w/o market - has now become a race to excite again and part of that is the thought of Annie turning up.

Regardless of whether people are for or against her chances (I think she wins from AF) she would undeniably add much interest to what would be a compelling race (as would MTOY's return) if not necessarily to the standard of past years.

re the trip being short of her best, she races like a 2 miler and many of the best champion hurdlers have stepped back from winning the Neptune in their novice year; Istabraaq, Hardy Eustace, Faugheen
 
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LUKE said:
Nervous times for anyone who rubbished the chances of The New One at 20/1.
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i only get nervous when i've put money on something:)

I do hope you aren't going to start putting up snidey dig at posts aimed at me over the next few months just because you got called a name..i know what posts like the above are aimed at it..its not clever ....you aren't benefitting anyone by attempting to wind me up Luke. But if it continues i'll just look back and highlight times when you got it wrong.

Using a forum to carry out a personal vendetta is a little sad imo

i called you a name..you called me one..we are even..don't continue it please
 
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I think Arctic Fire is a bit of a hound-I just can't have him winning a Champion Hurdle or even seriously getting into contention.
Can Identity Thief succeed where Sizing Europe failed -got to be a serious possibility.
 
LUKE said:
I think Arctic Fire is a bit of a hound-I just can't have him winning a Champion Hurdle or even seriously getting into contention.
Can Identity Thief succeed where Sizing Europe failed -got to be a serious possibility.
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A hound??? Christ I wouldn't mind owning a hound like that!
 
EC1 said:
i only get nervous when i've put money on something:)

I do hope you aren't going to start putting up snidey dig at posts aimed at me over the next few months just because you got called a name..i know what posts like the above are aimed at it..its not clever ....you aren't benefitting anyone by attempting to wind me up Luke. But if it continues i'll just look back and highlight times when you got it wrong.

Using a forum to carry out a personal vendetta is a little sad imo

i called you a name..you called me one..we are even..don't continue it please
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If The New One wins the Champion I won't say a word -I will be sure not to mention Hurricane Fly and pot hunting.
 
FFS - the world has indeed gone mad. You're right Bonjers, they look like they're about to flip flop. 3/1 vs 10/3 on Betdaq.
 
LUKE said:
If The New One wins the Champion I won't say a word -I will be sure not to mention Hurricane Fly and pot hunting.
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bearing grudges is a sad pursuit Luke

its no issue to me ..its very simple..i like posting here..i like the forum...but if i get constant digs from you..and you aren't subtle..i'll just read the forum..its really no skin off my nose whether i post here or not. I think i add a little value to the forum..so if your behaviour stops that bit of value being added..then you are damaging the forum with your behaviour

its up to you
 
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