The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Certainly worth considering. Comparison:
Identity Thief
Age 6 Races under rules 8 OR 158
Yanworth
Age 6 Races under rules 8 OR 158
Altior
Age 6 Races under rules 7 OR 155
 
I cannot believe I'm even thinking this, let alone typing it on a public forum but aside from Annie I reckon The New One has the best chance in the race.

He seems to have been around forever but is still only an 8 year old and incredibly the only horses to have ever finished in front of him in 2 mile hurdle races are Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Jezki, My Tent Or Yours and Arctic Fire. 4 out of those 5 are absent and MTOY has been off the track since finishing 2 lengths ahead of TNO in the infamous 2014 CH when many consider TNO extremely unlucky.

Even though we know he loves the hill in any normal year I'd dismiss him without a second thought but this is no normal year and his runs this season so far give him the beating of pretty much everything in the race with Rayvin Black - twice stuffed by him in receipt of weight - doing the form-line no harm.

and he is the highest rated horse in the field.
 
I love The New One, but Christ I cant have him. His jumping to the right seems to be getting even more pronounced.
It's a poor renewal but i'd have to have Annie Power and Identity Thief ahead of him, at least.

IF Willie can freshen Nichols Canyon up and get him back to himself the race is tailor made for him.
I just feel for the horse. Ruby went right to the bottom of him at xmas.
 
I cannot conceive of Henderson sending Altior for the Champion Hurdle. He is not one to ask too much too soon, especially when he was bigging up Peace And Co at the start of the season as the one of his Triumph tricast who would/could give Faugheen a race.

This maybe deserves a place on the 'Cliff Horses' thread but having been suckered into taking 10/1 ante-post back in October, I went in again at 14/1 ew without Faugheen a couple of weeks ago and, having had another look at the form, I went in again each-way last night when I saw 20/1 still available after Arctic Fire had come out.

If the horse is anywhere near as good as Henderson appeared to think at the start of the season, he cannot miss the frame.

But, of course, we are talking leaps of faith here that would have Bob Beaman doing a hammy.
 
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I reckon Top Notch could run into a place. Not much between him and Identity Thief on Newcastle run. he'll have the added bonus of Jacob riding Peace and Co with any luck!
 
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If TNO wins this I'd be on the 3.31 to Swansea! Outpaced from 3 out when the others kick,jumps the last 2 glaringly lugging right,sheepish NTD will talk of bad luck stories and all is not well with the horse without mentioning how the horse has put up workmanlike performances all season at wincanton and such like....same thing next year-Groundhog day!

If NJH get PaC to win or even place in this it would rank up there with me of one of the best training performances after the season it's had.Ok given the strength in depth of the race maybe a bit far but I'd be quite imptpressed.
 
all this talk of TNO..only two have dropped out..not 22:).

check out TNO's form this year alone..and then look at his hurdling as well.

its his best chance ever that is a fact..its a below par race..but just to beat AP he needs a 170 performance..thats to beat one horse.

His highest ever rating is 167..thats now dropped to 161. Does a horse on the downgrade,,that hurdles poorly and lacks speed look like a CH winner to you..even in this renewal?
 
The first four from last season have all dropped-out though, EC1........and of the four remaining principals, one hasn't seen the track in two years, one has massively disappointed, and one has never won an open G1 hurdle over 2-miles. Only really Nicholls Canyon can be considered to have better form in the book this season than TNO (for all that TNO has been wholly unimpressive in his starts).

There comes a time when even an exposed, workmanlike yoke like TNO has to enter the equation.

That said, I do think he will be found out (yet again) - principally because he will jump himself out of contention, when the heat is applied on the downhill run.
 
even if AP is only a 155 hoss at 2 miles..unlikely...it still means TNO needs to run a 162..his last figure against RB was 157..all out to win..then throw in rest of field that actually like jumping hurdles and have some speed
 
You do have to laugh...or just read and ignore, but there are plenty who have been screaming at the English Cotswold trained TNO (the horse is a childish obsession with a few here) needing far further than 2m, despite plenty of fine performances at that distance, and then tout .....Annie Power

good consistent analysis..
 
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clivex said:
You do have to laugh...or just read and ignore, but there are plenty who have been screaming at the English Cotswold trained TNO (the horse is a childish obsession with a few here) needing far further than 2m, despite plenty of fine performances at that distance, and then tout .....Annie Power

good consistent analysis..
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i just have laugh at your constant biased sniping Clive:)

i don't know if you have noticed..but they two different hosses..one front runs and can set the race to suit..other one is on decline and jumps awfully. One gets 7lb as well..which helps.

instead of looking for consistent..look for realistic Clive..come on now chap lets be real here..have you seen TNO this year?..awful jumping.

I'll concede though..if another 10 come out he is looking strong here

maybe we should look at past Champions hUrdles..imagine the winner was a non runner.,.,then look at the winners..Khyber Kim would be one..so that bet you have on TNO still has a chance:)

i hope it wins for you Clive..you won't have to hide afterwards then
 
clivex said:
You do have to laugh...or just read and ignore, but there are plenty who have been screaming at the English Cotswold trained TNO (the horse is a childish obsession with a few here) needing far further than 2m, despite plenty of fine performances at that distance, and then tout .....Annie Power

good consistent analysis..
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I think AP is largely being touted due to the 7lbs allowance, and the paucity of 'top-class' 2-milers left in the race. - it's hardly an anti-English thing, you great, big, Morris-dancing, woopsie. ;)

:cool:
 
EC1 said:
i just have laugh at your constant biased sniping Clive:)

i don't know if you have noticed..but they two different hosses..one front runs and can set the race to suit..other one is on decline and jumps awfully. One gets 7lb as well..which helps.

instead of looking for consistent..look for realistic Clive..come on now chap lets be real here..have you seen TNO this year?..awful jumping.

I'll concede though..if another 10 come out he is looking strong here

maybe we should look at past Champions hUrdles..imagine the winner was a non runner.,.,then look at the winners..Khyber Kim would be one..so that bet you have on TNO still has a chance:)

i hope it wins for you Clive..you won't have to hide afterwards then
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im not backing the tno. I never back horses that seem to be past their best. A reasonable strategy. to my mind only one trainer has the ability to revitalise top horses time and again and one trainer only. As we saw with Conti.


you always assume opinion is based on placed bets . Tiresome

but when the new one was at his best you were banging on endlessly about needing further. And where are we with ap?
 
Grasshopper said:
I think AP is largely being touted due to the 7lbs allowance, and the paucity of 'top-class' 2-milers left in the race. - it's hardly an anti-English thing, you great, big, Morris-dancing, woopsie. ;)

:cool:
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I like ap and maybe i am going to have to remind myself of the races run so far but the allowance won't be too significant if she's simply run off her feet. And I suspect that may just be the case

same argument as etc etc

for some she's the lay of the festival. I think the price is awful myself
 
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They both need further..but as they never even try to front run with TNO it was always going to be a test of speed the way he was riddent..AP will try the Hardy Eustace style of running a stayer..she might not win..but has a lot in favour with the 7lb. I personally don't care what wins it now tbh.

No i don't always assume opinion is based on bets....i just assumed you had taken some of the 20/1 on offer early in season with you being such a big supporter of the horse thats all. I apologise if i have given that impression..i don't have bets on any cheltenham races until the day
 
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the problem with the race is that she is a default favourite based mainly around getting 7lb from a um arr field..there isn't one horse you could get really serious about..so the 7lb is a big deal..if there was some quality in there i wouldn't give her time of day..but you can just see the scenario...ruby sets his own pace..pretty strong i'd imagine then try and burn speed out of em..we aren't going to get excited are we really?
 
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That's all ok. I do very little ante post myself. Most years nothing

she can do that but might be just a bit one paced at the end? I'm going to have to rack my memory but at ascot that time I'm sure I simply thought "no way 2 miles"

and even if she's leading to the last going fairly well she's bound to fall with mr laughaminute on top. That happens every race now doesn't it?
 
The Ask The Handicapper segment on ATR was very good today. Phil Smith said he think mares should get 10lbs in championship races yet 7lb for Annie Power makes her a short price fav in the Chanpion Hurdle.
 
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SlimChance said:
The Ask The Handicapper segment on ATR was very good today. Phil Smith said he think mates should get 10lbs in championship races yet 7lb for Annie Power makes her a short price fav in the Chanpion Hurdle.
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if you going to lay it Slim..you really need one that stands out in the race..nothing does..hence..default fav who no one would be surpised won it..have you a strong fancy to beat her really?..much of a muchness comes to mind. Race tactics then come into it..who will stop her making the pace RW wants..whatever takes her on will stop themselves winning becasue he will want a pace that burns others off...you would be wanting the last flight fall to save you;)
 
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I think it is practically impossible to have a strong opinion on the race now.

Far from it now being a "good betting heat", it is a minefield where it's vastly easier to make a case for horses not winning, than winning. Unless your money is already committed, it is really for swerving entirely as a betting proposition, imo, and time is better spent working-out the 20-odd other races at the Festival, than wasted trying to suss which cripple/stayer/dodgepot/exposed-yoke, takes this down.
 
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