The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

That's some contraption they have on him. He's to wear this for the champion hurdle too!!
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swedish chef said:
My Case for putting forward Camping Ground as the ‘Dark Horse’ and value bet of the Champion Hurdle, goes back to his run in the Imperial Cup in March last year. 3 horses have come out of the race and have improved at a rate of knots.

5th Thistlecrack 135 to 168 the move from 2m to 3m was a revelation
2nd Rayvin Black 131 to 149 tough and consistent +18lb
4th Camping Ground 150 to 163 +13lb

Over 2m in the Imperial cup Camping Ground was 1L behind Rayvin Black but was carrying 24lb more. If you calculate the current figures then Camping Ground has the potential to be 18lb better horse than Rayvin Black which would give him a potential O/R 167+ over 2m?

In the StanJames CH Trial The New One (O/R 161) was all out to beat Rayvin Black 2 1/4L giving RB 8lb with Melodic Rendezvous another 4 1/2L back in 3rd. I think The New One is a very consistent 161 performer and that would confirm Rayvin Black’s mark of 150 which was confirmed again in The Kingwell which he won with Melodic Rendezvous 5L 2nd.
In between Rayvin Black ran in the Betfred Contenders Hurdle finishing a neck 2nd with Peace & Co running his best race of the season so far 2L back in 3rd carrying 4lb more. I can only rate Peace & Co O/R 152+

I will add that I do think The New One could be a couple of lbs better on good going and will consider that on the day of the race. However, although predicted dry at Cheltenham for the next 6 days, the long range forecast is predicting a week of heavy rain after. What are the chances of good being in the ground on the day?

Through Rayvin Black I think it is safe to say that Melodic Rendezvous is currently a consistent 0/R 145 horse. In the International Hurdle he had Old Guard (156+), Sempre Medici (155+)and Hargam(154+) in front of him

Hargham actually improved on his next run in the Christmas Hurdle to a mark of O/R 160+ and another improvement like that which is possible may see him as Hendersons best chance if MTOY doesn’t perform. Sempre Medici is difficult to assess as he had two easy wins against lesser horses without having to run above the mark he’s already achieved and would need 10lb+ improvement to be a serious contender, possible?

Nichols Canyon (160) Identity Thief (158) & Top Notch(158) through various lines of form I agree with these ratings and I don’t believe there is much improvement if any to come from these.

Purple Bay & Sign of A Victory – not good enough

That leaves My Tent Or Yours – complete unknown as to what performance he may produce? I see no value at current prices.

Annie Power – I’m in the same camp as the doubters. She is a lovely looking mare who travels beautifully in a race especially over further. However, I have serious doubts that she can lead this field as has been suggested. I have serious doubts about her jumping at speed and serious doubts she is an O/R 161 horse. Like others I can’t find any form that backs this up and I can’t take the form of beating Zarkander twice in small fields over further seriously. I would have Annie Power at O/R 161+ including the 7lb allowance and again have doubts the distance and pace will suit.

I accept I will probably look stupid after the race but this is how I read the form and the overpriced ‘Dark Horse’ with the potential to be a class 2 miler is Camping Ground(163+) imo and feel connections may have campaigned him wrongly, starting with a Novice chase and then after the Relkeel Hurdle trying to go up in distance as he clearly didn’t stay the trip.
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Both Top Notch and Lil Rockerfellar have come out and given the Camping Ground form a boost. I'm happy now he's the class I thought he was but can he prove it over 2m 1/2f ? Still the value e/way bet of the race imo.
 
Breathtaking. He possibly bottoms the horse by running him too soon in the IC after a gut busting run over Christmas (where Ruby threw the kitchen sink at the horse, he has Faugheen, why should he give two shits about NC's long term prospects)
and now is half considering the stamina sapping WH. Wylie needs to act like a ******* man for the first time in his life and put his foot down. And as for talk about Black Hercules in the JLT? Incredible.
 
FWIW MTOY worked like a yak saturday by all accounts regardless of what Hendo said after. I wouldn't touch him with a 50ft barge pole....He's probably 10/1 to make the race.
 
Didn't look that way during the gallop at Kempton....seemed to go perfectly well (not that you learn a great deal during these types of events).
 
SP Only said:
FWIW MTOY worked like a yak saturday by all accounts regardless of what Hendo said after. I wouldn't touch him with a 50ft barge pole....He's probably 10/1 to make the race.
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Some trick, to comfortably dispose of a 157 horse while working like a yak. :lol:
 
SP Only said:
FWIW MTOY worked like a yak saturday by all accounts regardless of what Hendo said after. I wouldn't touch him with a 50ft barge pole....He's probably 10/1 to make the race.
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Visually that wasn't the case anyway. I thought he looked a lot better in himself than his first gallop a few backs too. His price has remained steady too around 8 or 9 to one.

AP had openly said last time that Hargam had carried a stone more than MTOY on that first gallop but they made no mention of weight this time. I can only assume that's because they were level this time?

They reckon that new mussel bit has him a lot less keen anyway & he'll wear it in the Champion.


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Kauto Abu said:
AP had openly said last time that Hargam had carried a stone more than MTOY on that first gallop but they made no mention of weight this time. I can only assume that's because they were level this time?
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Any reason why?

AP says he now weighs a stone and a half more than Barry. Without knowledge of any lead being added to the latter's saddle, I'd be more inclined to assume they were the same as last time.

Henderson was still implying the other day that Peace And Co is better than Hargam or Top Notch. I wouldn't be surprised if these gallops are all about making sure they know exactly where PAC stands in relation to the others.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Mullins couldn't lie straight in bed, his running plans will all no doubt change several times between now and the off.
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I would have to disagree with you there -anyone with half a clue knows there are multiple options for good horses-instead of bitching people should take note of Willie shuffling the pack-Champagne Fever being a great example.Straight after Faugheen won the Neptune he called him his Champion Hurdler and Vatour his novice chaser while most people expected the reverse-that could have been the makings of a serious coup.
 
That decision wasn't taken until after Punchestown, Luke, when he dropped Faugheen into the 2m Champion Novice and sent Vautour to the 2m4f novice race. Otherwise, Mullins was completely open about their resoective targets thereafter.
 
In his RUK interview he gave an honest answer in the heat of battle.
I was very interested to read Hugh McIlvaney in the Sunday Times about the need for instant comment these days -at the expense of meaningful insight.
 
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