The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
If you mean Identity Thief, I would say his limitations were possibly exposed at Xmas.
But it's on record that he wants good ground and is expected to improve significantly for it, so you couldn't rule him out. He wouldn't have to find too much improvement to win this.
To be honest my head's spinning with the race. I suspect I'll come down on the side of what I think is value on the day.
To be honest my head's spinning with the race. I suspect I'll come down on the side of what I think is value on the day.
S
SlimChance
Guest
So the advice is to avoid betting on a race with a mare who hasn't had a proper race in two years and that bookmakers will bet to less than 1% a runner on the day?
You lads have gone ******* soft.
You lads have gone ******* soft.
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I can't be tits'd crunching the numbers, on such a piffling event. It's best left to chisellers like yourself. 
S
SlimChance
Guest
It will be bet much harder on the day then it is now because all firms are NRNB.
Chapman an needs some reading about handiccaping.
about annie power, will be 3/1 in the day,
i cant see her in the placings
S
SlimChance
Guest
Chapman knows plenty but he has to represent the uneducated people tweeting questions so Phil Smith can explain things. It's an excellent show in my opinion.
Perpetual
At the Start
If you're giving Sempre Medici a squeak then Old Guard needs a mention. I’ve been banging his drum since Nov, he has a decent chancce of hitting the frame & 25/1 ew is still too big
2 x c&d winner, will also improve for better ground, battler and his xmas hurdle run can be ignored as was an afterthought
As others have mentioned, the downside is the Kyle connection, but I couldn’t give a monkeys about that if he finishes in the 3!
2 x c&d winner, will also improve for better ground, battler and his xmas hurdle run can be ignored as was an afterthought
As others have mentioned, the downside is the Kyle connection, but I couldn’t give a monkeys about that if he finishes in the 3!
Agreed. I've had a punt at 25 ew. The owner(s) are plum and the trainer does my tits in but its still a decent punt in a poor CH.
I would be interested in this OG too. Think that this race is certain to be a shocker for punters. More holes in the principals than a wheel of cheese.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
The race looks "interesting" now, in the same way a Welsh or Scottish Champion Hurdle looks interesting. This race looks a very poor renewal now; maybe we have been spoilt over the last few years with The Fly and Faugheen.
This. ^
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
At the end of the day it's still the Champion Hurdle and in 10 years or so nobody will give a toss who didn't run, the name on the trophy certainly won't say it.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
If this forum is still going in 10 years time, Tiggers, we will all howl down the 2016 CH result: "Not worth a bean; shite horses; where was Faugheen?; that bloody mare, who's name escapes me, couldn't even win it receiving 7 pounds".
swedish chef
At the Start
My Case for putting forward Camping Ground as the ‘Dark Horse’ and value bet of the Champion Hurdle, goes back to his run in the Imperial Cup in March last year. 3 horses have come out of the race and have improved at a rate of knots.
5th Thistlecrack 135 to 168 the move from 2m to 3m was a revelation
2nd Rayvin Black 131 to 149 tough and consistent +18lb
4th Camping Ground 150 to 163 +13lb
Over 2m in the Imperial cup Camping Ground was 1L behind Rayvin Black but was carrying 24lb more. If you calculate the current figures then Camping Ground has the potential to be 18lb better horse than Rayvin Black which would give him a potential O/R 167+ over 2m?
In the StanJames CH Trial The New One (O/R 161) was all out to beat Rayvin Black 2 1/4L giving RB 8lb with Melodic Rendezvous another 4 1/2L back in 3rd. I think The New One is a very consistent 161 performer and that would confirm Rayvin Black’s mark of 150 which was confirmed again in The Kingwell which he won with Melodic Rendezvous 5L 2nd.
In between Rayvin Black ran in the Betfred Contenders Hurdle finishing a neck 2nd with Peace & Co running his best race of the season so far 2L back in 3rd carrying 4lb more. I can only rate Peace & Co O/R 152+
I will add that I do think The New One could be a couple of lbs better on good going and will consider that on the day of the race. However, although predicted dry at Cheltenham for the next 6 days, the long range forecast is predicting a week of heavy rain after. What are the chances of good being in the ground on the day?
Through Rayvin Black I think it is safe to say that Melodic Rendezvous is currently a consistent 0/R 145 horse. In the International Hurdle he had Old Guard (156+), Sempre Medici (155+)and Hargam(154+) in front of him
Hargham actually improved on his next run in the Christmas Hurdle to a mark of O/R 160+ and another improvement like that which is possible may see him as Hendersons best chance if MTOY doesn’t perform. Sempre Medici is difficult to assess as he had two easy wins against lesser horses without having to run above the mark he’s already achieved and would need 10lb+ improvement to be a serious contender, possible?
Nichols Canyon (160) Identity Thief (158) & Top Notch(158) through various lines of form I agree with these ratings and I don’t believe there is much improvement if any to come from these.
Purple Bay & Sign of A Victory – not good enough
That leaves My Tent Or Yours – complete unknown as to what performance he may produce? I see no value at current prices.
Annie Power – I’m in the same camp as the doubters. She is a lovely looking mare who travels beautifully in a race especially over further. However, I have serious doubts that she can lead this field as has been suggested. I have serious doubts about her jumping at speed and serious doubts she is an O/R 161 horse. Like others I can’t find any form that backs this up and I can’t take the form of beating Zarkander twice in small fields over further seriously. I would have Annie Power at O/R 161+ including the 7lb allowance and again have doubts the distance and pace will suit.
I accept I will probably look stupid after the race but this is how I read the form and the overpriced ‘Dark Horse’ with the potential to be a class 2 miler is Camping Ground(163+) imo and feel connections may have campaigned him wrongly, starting with a Novice chase and then after the Relkeel Hurdle trying to go up in distance as he clearly didn’t stay the trip.
5th Thistlecrack 135 to 168 the move from 2m to 3m was a revelation
2nd Rayvin Black 131 to 149 tough and consistent +18lb
4th Camping Ground 150 to 163 +13lb
Over 2m in the Imperial cup Camping Ground was 1L behind Rayvin Black but was carrying 24lb more. If you calculate the current figures then Camping Ground has the potential to be 18lb better horse than Rayvin Black which would give him a potential O/R 167+ over 2m?
In the StanJames CH Trial The New One (O/R 161) was all out to beat Rayvin Black 2 1/4L giving RB 8lb with Melodic Rendezvous another 4 1/2L back in 3rd. I think The New One is a very consistent 161 performer and that would confirm Rayvin Black’s mark of 150 which was confirmed again in The Kingwell which he won with Melodic Rendezvous 5L 2nd.
In between Rayvin Black ran in the Betfred Contenders Hurdle finishing a neck 2nd with Peace & Co running his best race of the season so far 2L back in 3rd carrying 4lb more. I can only rate Peace & Co O/R 152+
I will add that I do think The New One could be a couple of lbs better on good going and will consider that on the day of the race. However, although predicted dry at Cheltenham for the next 6 days, the long range forecast is predicting a week of heavy rain after. What are the chances of good being in the ground on the day?
Through Rayvin Black I think it is safe to say that Melodic Rendezvous is currently a consistent 0/R 145 horse. In the International Hurdle he had Old Guard (156+), Sempre Medici (155+)and Hargam(154+) in front of him
Hargham actually improved on his next run in the Christmas Hurdle to a mark of O/R 160+ and another improvement like that which is possible may see him as Hendersons best chance if MTOY doesn’t perform. Sempre Medici is difficult to assess as he had two easy wins against lesser horses without having to run above the mark he’s already achieved and would need 10lb+ improvement to be a serious contender, possible?
Nichols Canyon (160) Identity Thief (158) & Top Notch(158) through various lines of form I agree with these ratings and I don’t believe there is much improvement if any to come from these.
Purple Bay & Sign of A Victory – not good enough
That leaves My Tent Or Yours – complete unknown as to what performance he may produce? I see no value at current prices.
Annie Power – I’m in the same camp as the doubters. She is a lovely looking mare who travels beautifully in a race especially over further. However, I have serious doubts that she can lead this field as has been suggested. I have serious doubts about her jumping at speed and serious doubts she is an O/R 161 horse. Like others I can’t find any form that backs this up and I can’t take the form of beating Zarkander twice in small fields over further seriously. I would have Annie Power at O/R 161+ including the 7lb allowance and again have doubts the distance and pace will suit.
I accept I will probably look stupid after the race but this is how I read the form and the overpriced ‘Dark Horse’ with the potential to be a class 2 miler is Camping Ground(163+) imo and feel connections may have campaigned him wrongly, starting with a Novice chase and then after the Relkeel Hurdle trying to go up in distance as he clearly didn’t stay the trip.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Top post chef !
links781
Journeyman
Nice read.CG and Annie pushing the pace with MTOY travelling behind them like Harchibald-press the button BJG!
edgt
Senior Jockey
Remembering the ride BJG gave Jezki I prefer him on a hard puller than I would AP McCoy; he rides with more leg and has the gift of making up ground effortlessly , leaving the horse flow from beneath him with little apparent effort.
(Paul Carberry to me though will always be the king of the tricky ones; check out his ride on Bellvano 2012 Grand Annual on Jockey Club website, a horse that never came up the Cheltenham Hill !)
(Paul Carberry to me though will always be the king of the tricky ones; check out his ride on Bellvano 2012 Grand Annual on Jockey Club website, a horse that never came up the Cheltenham Hill !)
