The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)

Every trainer these days seems to have been on a pr course -including one of my favourite trainers-who speaks very articulately but says absolutely nothing in interviews.
Personally I find Willie reasonably easy to read but I fully expect him to reserve the right to make last minute changes to his Cheltenham squad and I expect him to play his handicapping cards close to his chest.
 
I'd be interested to know how you experts would rate Annie Power.

No doubt she would have beaten Polly Peachum and her stable companion in the mares but surely at their best so would a few of those still entered for the Champion Hurdle.

She may well make the transition successfully but a 2/1 shot? I would want 9/2 about her.

Everybody assumes WPM just waves a magic wand and a Mares Hurdler becomes a Champion Hurdler.

Never mind she's never even ran in what you would call a competitive 2 mile hurdle in her life.

She did beat Don Cossack but you can hardly count that the rest were boats that wouldn't be sighted in any Champion Hurdle since the first time they ran it.

March will be the first time in 3 years she has ran at 2 miles and she has a lot more to beat than Polly Peachum who was 155 in the mares.

7 of the 8 English trained horses are rated higher than Polly Peachum was and are all 2 mile specialists.

I assume the Irish trained due Nichols Canyon and Identify Theif are also both rated higher than PP was.

It only takes one horse to run above his rating and Annie Power is entering unknown territory at the trip.

To me she is one dodgy bet and way too risky to be having your piggy bank on.
 
Tanlic said:
...she has a lot more to beat than Polly Peachum who was 155 in the mares.

7 of the 8 English trained horses are rated higher than Polly Peachum...
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But how far would she have beaten Polly Peachum by, 8 lengths ?, which would make her current mark more or less accurate and don't forget she'll be getting 7lb from the boys.

There's no doubt she is too short right now and there has to be slight concerns over her preparation, which while sufficient to win the Mares could be found out in this company but she does have the form, or at least had it and I'm convinced the step back in trip will suit her.

I'm loving the negativity because on the Tuesday morning I reckon she'll be available as big as 4/1.
 
Tanlic said:
I'd be interested to know how you experts would rate Annie Power.

No doubt she would have beaten Polly Peachum and her stable companion in the mares but surely at their best so would a few of those still entered for the Champion Hurdle.

She may well make the transition successfully but a 2/1 shot? I would want 9/2 about her.

Everybody assumes WPM just waves a magic wand and a Mares Hurdler becomes a Champion Hurdler.

Never mind she's never even ran in what you would call a competitive 2 mile hurdle in her life.

She did beat Don Cossack but you can hardly count that the rest were boats that wouldn't be sighted in any Champion Hurdle since the first time they ran it.

March will be the first time in 3 years she has ran at 2 miles and she has a lot more to beat than Polly Peachum who was 155 in the mares.

7 of the 8 English trained horses are rated higher than Polly Peachum was and are all 2 mile specialists.

I assume the Irish trained due Nichols Canyon and Identify Theif are also both rated higher than PP was.

It only takes one horse to run above his rating and Annie Power is entering unknown territory at the trip.

To me she is one dodgy bet and way too risky to be having your piggy bank on.
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I don't think she has the speed to win a Champion Hurdle.... if it was very soft then perhaps. She has no form against the boys in this race so its a leap of faith to back her.
 
Matt ChapmanVerified account
‏@MCYeeehaaa
News reaching me @WillieMullinsNH has definitely supplemented Annie Power this morning for the @CheltenhamRaces Champion Hurdle. Yeeehaaa!

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If only Hurricane Fly had stayed in training one more year'

Seems the experts are all tipping up Identity Thief which actually seems quite sensible

He should goi quite close if Lil Rockerfeller doesn't go :whistle:
 
I crossed Identity thief of my fancy for CH list the minute after he won the FF..FF winners have a very poor record in CH in same season...i always like to say this at least once every year on this thread..it never seems to let me down:D
 
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A lots to do with not having the best horses fit that early I suppose although years back more than a few CH winners won it.

Plus this is hardly a normal year.

This Lil Rockerfeller is probably the owners idea as Neil King doesn't come across as an idiot.
They are either first time owners with no idea about racing or they are a company using it for advertising purposes.

Horse will be tailed off even in this poor looking renewal. Should be 100/1 to get placed
 
One year a FF winner will take the CH. Maybe not this year but the stat wouldn't have me crossing one off [emoji4]


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viking said:
One year a FF winner will take the CH. Maybe not this year but the stat wouldn't have me crossing one off [emoji4]


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of course it will,,thats not the point though

it doesn't weaken it as a stat...when a stat is broken..the recency bias amongst punters makes me laugh a little.."oh well thats that stat out the window". Is it hell out the window...all stats will be broken at some point.

Lets say a stat..with some logic behind it ,,,says that only 1 horse in 100 has won. Does that mean you should ignore it?..wait for next one to win then....then say..well that stat is no good now..its a bit of nonsense really..its still only 2/101..its only recency that make people decry it

The FF one has logic..we have discussed this before..but Tanlic above mentions the logic its based on.

The whole game is a % play...including stats..which i only use mildly mesen..but i don't let recency put me off.

The 5 year old winning the CH is another one..its based on logic..the logic being that to win a CH you need to have experience and at that age its tough on a horse. It make no difference if a 5 year old won it last year..over a long period of time..its proven to be true. That don't stop 5 year olds winning it..but its no lesser a stat just coz one won recently
 
It would be interesting to see what Henry De Bromhead would think of the stat.

What was he thinking sending a horse to win a race that would put him out of the Champion Hurdle picture. What an idiot.
 
Yeah but there's nothing logical about a stat like the FF that cant be blown out the window by a trainer deciding to run something like faugheen in the race.

To be honest looking at the results there's not one horse I fancied for the Champion Hurdle that's won the race in the last 25 years and that's before they won the race and after.

Go back to the Comedy of Errors Sea Pigeon are when horses were trained differently and would be on the go earlier and it's all Champion Hurdle horse that ran in it.

It's not a CH trial nowadays it's for horses that the trainer wants to be winning with before the big guns comes out
 
i don't really care what he thinks really..or you with the tone of your post.

The stat is there..take it or leave it...don't bother with the ridicule though..it doesn't really make you look good if that was the intent.

if you think its nonsense then just say so..i'm not fussed either way..there is no need for ridicule though.
 
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EC1 said:
i don't really care what he thinks really..or you with the tone of your post.

The stat is there..take it or leave it...don't bother with the ridicule though..it doesn't really make you look good if that was the intent.

if you think its nonsense then just say so..i'm not fussed either way..there is no need for ridicule though.
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Wow
 
not really..if you disagree just disagree..there is no need for ridicule.really..

You.. i don't think have ever posted positively in my direction..then first time you do respond..its done in a mocking way...why?

i've no intention of falling out about it..but i will address a post made in ridicule..i'm sorry about that,,but it was made to riducule..or are you going to pretend it wasn't?

if you were someone who i have banter with on here..it would have been taken as light hearted..but you aren't..so it wasn't

if i took the pee out of one of your posts..you'd be saying something..so i have
 
EC1 said:
not really..if you disagree just disagree..there is no need for ridicule.really..

You.. i don't think have ever posted positively in my direction..then first time you do respond..its done in a mocking way...why?

i've no intention of falling out about it..but i will address a post made in ridicule..i'm sorry about that,,but it was made to riducule..or are you going to pretend it wasn't?

if you were someone who i have banter with on here..it would have been taken as light hearted..but you aren't..so it wasn't

if i took the pee out of one of your posts..you'd be saying something..so i have
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Double wow. Precious much??

If you took the **** out of one of my posts, i'd address the issue in question, and not go on moaning about the manner in which it was made.

The post was meant as a disagreement of yours. That's quite clear. If you don't like the tone I don't know what to tell you.
Maybe grow a pair.
 
nothing precious about responding in kind to a ridicule post..i've not gone on moaning..i've just responded..you don't like it...well don't ridicule people then..try constructive disagreement...ridiculing don't mean you got a pair as you put it..it actually shows the opposite

i've done no more than anyone else does on here when someone ridicules a post..i've responded..as you said you would..sorry for that.
 
Whatever, agree to disagree.

Fundamentally I cant see how Identity Thief's chances are reduced because he ran in (and won) a race in November.
HDB could have held off on sending him to Down Royal (and Newcastle) and sent him to the Morgiana, where lets say he'd have finished 3rd or 4th.

Going by the stats, he'd now be in a better position to win the Champion Hurdle??
I just cant have that.

I'm not totally against stats. The 5yo one carries a lot of weight (for a valid reason). This one doesn't imo.
As tanlic pointed out, If WPM sent Faugheen to the Fighting Fifth, would he be less likely to win a Champion Hurdle?

Striking a horse off your shortlist for this reason makes no sense to me.
But hey, its all about opinions. If that's what helps you land on your selection, so be it.
I simply can't see the logic, in this case.
 
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