EC1
On a break
Whatever, agree to disagree.
Fundamentally I cant see how Identity Thief's chances are reduced because he ran in (and won) a race in November.
HDB could have held off on sending him to Down Royal (and Newcastle) and sent him to the Morgiana, where lets say he'd have finished 3rd or 4th.
Going by the stats, he'd now be in a better position to win the Champion Hurdle??
I just cant have that.
I'm not totally against stats. The 5yo one carries a lot of weight (for a valid reason). This one doesn't imo.
As tanlic pointed out, If WPM sent Faugheen to the Fighting Fifth, would he be less likely to win a Champion Hurdle?
Striking a horse off your shortlist for this reason makes no sense to me.
But hey, its all about opinions. If that's what helps you land on your selection, so be it.
I simply can't see the logic, in this case.
thats a very good post Hezz..thank you
firstly..if you have read this thread over the years..i have tongue in cheek posted the stat on previous CH threads...with smileys..so i apologise if its been taken as a gospel stat from me when i posted it a page back
i do mentally check off the winner of it based on that stat..and its not set in stone..but i do it....and you are right..its probably not up to my normal logic thinking..or anyones...but there is a little logic there with it being early in the season..and..imo is a target race for some trainers rather than a stepping stone race. I think its a tough race to win because of that and so as a nice little starter for the CH trail..i'm not convinced its a pointer to the big one
I'm not a stats follower except in my lazy moments ,,but i do feel there is something in the FF one to a degree
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