The Well Worn Road To The Champion Hurdle (2016)
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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SlimChance
Guest
That's what I'm trying to tell people on this thread. I can't believe anyone is having a bet now. It will be bet under 100% on oddschecker across all bookmakers on Tuesday.
I get my book off in advance anyway, so I'm already onside. I always start afresh each morning through the week.
I play several books to farm best odds and play Betfair before I leave my bets, but do you seriously think any single book in the CH will be that generous?
I play several books to farm best odds and play Betfair before I leave my bets, but do you seriously think any single book in the CH will be that generous?
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SlimChance
Guest
Single book? Of course not. Bet365 will bet it ridiculously tight but it will be overbroke across the industry for the few who can get on across the board.
MTOY's the bet of the week for me; clear class horse in the race and 10/1 on the day would just have me piling more on.
The net muzzle he now wears appears to have cured his propensity to pull his pilot's arms out, and that should surely mean improvement on his close 2nd to Jezki.
Despite Nicky's apparent trepidation, he's done everything possible to have him fit as a flea, and - given his connections - he's hardly likely to be shouting his wellbeing from the rooftops. That they've seemingly sacrificed Hargam's chances, to act as a lead horse, gives the clue to how seriously they fancy him.
Get some more on, Grassy.
The net muzzle he now wears appears to have cured his propensity to pull his pilot's arms out, and that should surely mean improvement on his close 2nd to Jezki.
Despite Nicky's apparent trepidation, he's done everything possible to have him fit as a flea, and - given his connections - he's hardly likely to be shouting his wellbeing from the rooftops. That they've seemingly sacrificed Hargam's chances, to act as a lead horse, gives the clue to how seriously they fancy him.
Get some more on, Grassy.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I largely agree but there will no doubt be the odd runner who will contract significantly between now and the morning. If you can find one - and doing that would not be easy without some kind of knowledge the general betting public is not privy to - it's still worth taking but, as you say, the morning of the race is now the time to wait for. I notice most prices are readjusted at around 8.30am to reflect the odds tables in the RP.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Get some more on, Grassy.
I felt somewhat unclean when I had the original bet, reet - and the forecast return is sufficient-enough, that I don't need to top-up further, on such an undiluted squiggler of a beast as MTOY, thank you very much!
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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13 declared for the Champion Hurdle. Ruby rides Annie Power, Paul Townend is on Nichols Canyon and David Mullins on Sempre Medici,Geraghty on MTOY, Mark Walsh rides Hargam. Jacob rides Top Notch, De Boinville on Peace And Co and Tinkler rides Sign Of A Victory.
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Len Madeiros
Rookie
We all know this is a very open race, but I'm dismissing two of the fancied runners purely on the basis that a horse doesn't win the CH on its first run for two years (MTOY), or on its third run in two years (AP).
Nichols Canyon looks obvious on the form, as he has a stack of G1 wins and a win over Faugheen this season, but...that last run looked terrible. Peace and Co still interests me, because Hendo keeps talking him up and he will get his pace. But Camping Ground is where I'll be throwing the coins, purely on the basis that his form in the Relkeel looks decent and he could well get a soft lead here.
Sod it, I've talked myself into the tricast!
Nichols Canyon looks obvious on the form, as he has a stack of G1 wins and a win over Faugheen this season, but...that last run looked terrible. Peace and Co still interests me, because Hendo keeps talking him up and he will get his pace. But Camping Ground is where I'll be throwing the coins, purely on the basis that his form in the Relkeel looks decent and he could well get a soft lead here.
Sod it, I've talked myself into the tricast!
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Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Paul Nicholls on Betfair
I have declared Old Guard for the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday as he worked much better this morning. But after he cooled off he was very slightly stiff behind for the second day running.
My head lad Clifford Baker and I wonder if he has a minor muscular issue somewhere and we will be moving heaven and earth to get Old Guard spot on for Tuesday.
But after speaking to his three owners earlier today I agreed that we will not be making a firm decision about his participation in the Champion Hurdle until he schools over eight flights of hurdles at home tomorrow morning.
And if we are unhappy with Old Guard in any way after that then of course he will not be going to Cheltenham.
But if he schools well and is fine afterwards then he has every chance of running the next day.
The first sign of a problem emerged on Saturday morning when Old Guard seemed a bit flat when he worked with some of our other Cheltenham runners.
By his usual standards it was a little disappointing and afterwards he showed minor signs of stiffness behind once he cooled off.
But last night he was 100% sound and again this morning before our vet Buffy Shirley-Beavan checked him over and gave him a clean bill of health before his work out.
I have declared Old Guard for the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday as he worked much better this morning. But after he cooled off he was very slightly stiff behind for the second day running.
My head lad Clifford Baker and I wonder if he has a minor muscular issue somewhere and we will be moving heaven and earth to get Old Guard spot on for Tuesday.
But after speaking to his three owners earlier today I agreed that we will not be making a firm decision about his participation in the Champion Hurdle until he schools over eight flights of hurdles at home tomorrow morning.
And if we are unhappy with Old Guard in any way after that then of course he will not be going to Cheltenham.
But if he schools well and is fine afterwards then he has every chance of running the next day.
The first sign of a problem emerged on Saturday morning when Old Guard seemed a bit flat when he worked with some of our other Cheltenham runners.
By his usual standards it was a little disappointing and afterwards he showed minor signs of stiffness behind once he cooled off.
But last night he was 100% sound and again this morning before our vet Buffy Shirley-Beavan checked him over and gave him a clean bill of health before his work out.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
NC's last run wasn't that bad. He came out a little too soon after Christmas and went into the red trying to keep tabs on Faugheen, that one error did for him. I just hope he's been trained properly for the race.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He'd be a strong bet with another trainer. I just don't trust the man with his Wylie charges.
granger
Senior Jockey
I doubt he is being sent to make the numbers up Euro
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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This Champion Hurdle isn't entirely unlike last season's Gold Cup, which was another wide-open race.
In the absence of a standout candidate, you were basically left with horses who either looked exposed, or novices/inexperienced horses needing to make a fair old leap to get into the places. If last year told us anything relevant for this year, it's possibly that you should side with promise over experience, when faced with a similar scenario. Forgive Nicholls Canyon his last run, and he strikes me as the one with the best credentials for this race.
In the absence of a standout candidate, you were basically left with horses who either looked exposed, or novices/inexperienced horses needing to make a fair old leap to get into the places. If last year told us anything relevant for this year, it's possibly that you should side with promise over experience, when faced with a similar scenario. Forgive Nicholls Canyon his last run, and he strikes me as the one with the best credentials for this race.
EC1
On a break
recency bias has put plenty off NC..remove that run..and put him in the context of the race as it now stands..and he looks one of the best hosses in it. He outbattled IT before that in one of the best..visually ..proper gutsy win...hurdle races of season... plenty fancy IT to win it..NC is a 6 time G1 winner in a so so race...some of them will be viewed as not proper G1's..well this isn't
Len Madeiros
Rookie
I watched a CH preview on YouTube yesterday, and John Francome said that something definitely went wrong with NC in his last race against Faugheen and Arctic Fire; as though something actually happened to make him lose his action. If he's recovered from that, Francome says he'll be fine. I'm torn.
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FWIW MTOY AND TNO lost a champion hurdle to Jezki who if fit would now be in the world hurdle.
Identity Thief in my view was slightly fortunate to beat Top Notch.
Nicholls Canyon did not get the best ride in Neptune last year was v impressive at Aintree and will hopefully be ridden agressively this year.
Peace and Co appears to have regressed.
Annie Power is an imponderable a bet based on reputation
Nicholls Canyon for me Top Notch to make the 3
Identity Thief in my view was slightly fortunate to beat Top Notch.
Nicholls Canyon did not get the best ride in Neptune last year was v impressive at Aintree and will hopefully be ridden agressively this year.
Peace and Co appears to have regressed.
Annie Power is an imponderable a bet based on reputation
Nicholls Canyon for me Top Notch to make the 3
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links781
Journeyman
Agreed he is an each way bet to nothing.
If reports are to be believed mtoy has been in really good form at home and for all the quirks he'd be thereabouts if 100% right.
If reports are to be believed mtoy has been in really good form at home and for all the quirks he'd be thereabouts if 100% right.
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SlimChance
Guest
Horses without a run in two years running in a 12 runner Grade 1 can never be described as good e/w bets never mind an e/w bet to nothing. If there is one horse I would want to lay e/w in the race its him.
links781
Journeyman
Sorry I was referring to Nichols canyon
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SlimChance
Guest
That I can live with. He looks very solid.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
If Walsh has chosen the right one then NC is only playing for 2 places and I reckon he's an ew lay as he's bound to set the pace for Annie Power
MTOY is reported in great form and the very fact NJH decided to go straight there speaks volumes.
If anyone knows what it takes it's him . My only problem is I am not a fan of MTOY I think he'd need to win hard on the steel and this is more likely to be a slog
Annie Power is there to be shot at. Up against the boys for the first time the memory of Quevega sticks in the mind when she tried.
To be fair that was probably a better race than this was but then Quevega would a be better horse than Annie Power.
The mare is definitely worth opposing.
Peace and Co One time 2nd fav but everything that has gone wrong has went wrong. I have heard he won't run then I was told DJ was requested to move over and give Nico a go lotta people will want NJH lynched if he were to win but a late withdrawal is more likely if the ground gets any worse.
Top Notch is tough as old boot but he's had too many chances this season to prove he's up to this. The Morebattle doesn't go anywhere near to saying he is,
I was surprised to hear NJH say he will run well if the ground is soft. He's a 7lb better horse on good ground according AP who rode him in last years Triumph.
plus MTOY laughs at him carrying a stone more.
Camping Ground was awesome in the Relkeel Hurdle and had more than a few clambering to back him in the World Hurdle but he failed to stay 3 miles.
Why then drop all the way back to 2 miles? It seems a bit crazy. That said Annie Power wants further so as said above I suspect NC is going to make this a test of stamina
and on soft ground..Camping Ground will run better than his price suggests and could just about win.
Under the same circumstances I have to give the New One the vote. Never thought I would hear myself say that but there you go.
The New One will never win a Champion Hurdle they cried. BUT what has beat him in the past?
He was hampered but got back into the race then was left flat footed when they kicked 3 out first time round. Then last year faugheen injected so much pace at the top of the hill again he was left floundering.
If opposing Annie Power who is about the only horse in the race bar MTOY who is capable of injecting enough pace to leave him floundering again then I have to give him a big shout.
The holding ground that is forecast is going to play a big part in preventing sudden injections of pace which bring The new One right into it.
The only problem is the price. For a horse who has lost 2 Champion Hurdles he's a shitty price but I suppose that's because the bookies are thinking the same way as I am.
The New One
Danger MTOY
Best EW: Identity Thief
MTOY is reported in great form and the very fact NJH decided to go straight there speaks volumes.
If anyone knows what it takes it's him . My only problem is I am not a fan of MTOY I think he'd need to win hard on the steel and this is more likely to be a slog
Annie Power is there to be shot at. Up against the boys for the first time the memory of Quevega sticks in the mind when she tried.
To be fair that was probably a better race than this was but then Quevega would a be better horse than Annie Power.
The mare is definitely worth opposing.
Peace and Co One time 2nd fav but everything that has gone wrong has went wrong. I have heard he won't run then I was told DJ was requested to move over and give Nico a go lotta people will want NJH lynched if he were to win but a late withdrawal is more likely if the ground gets any worse.
Top Notch is tough as old boot but he's had too many chances this season to prove he's up to this. The Morebattle doesn't go anywhere near to saying he is,
I was surprised to hear NJH say he will run well if the ground is soft. He's a 7lb better horse on good ground according AP who rode him in last years Triumph.
plus MTOY laughs at him carrying a stone more.
Camping Ground was awesome in the Relkeel Hurdle and had more than a few clambering to back him in the World Hurdle but he failed to stay 3 miles.
Why then drop all the way back to 2 miles? It seems a bit crazy. That said Annie Power wants further so as said above I suspect NC is going to make this a test of stamina
and on soft ground..Camping Ground will run better than his price suggests and could just about win.
Under the same circumstances I have to give the New One the vote. Never thought I would hear myself say that but there you go.
The New One will never win a Champion Hurdle they cried. BUT what has beat him in the past?
He was hampered but got back into the race then was left flat footed when they kicked 3 out first time round. Then last year faugheen injected so much pace at the top of the hill again he was left floundering.
If opposing Annie Power who is about the only horse in the race bar MTOY who is capable of injecting enough pace to leave him floundering again then I have to give him a big shout.
The holding ground that is forecast is going to play a big part in preventing sudden injections of pace which bring The new One right into it.
The only problem is the price. For a horse who has lost 2 Champion Hurdles he's a shitty price but I suppose that's because the bookies are thinking the same way as I am.
The New One
Danger MTOY
Best EW: Identity Thief
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