Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
My twopenceworth:
(Written before Old Guard was withdrawn and edited this morning.)
I’m not sure it’s ever satisfactory when any one of ten or so runners in a 13-strong championship race field can have cases of sorts made for them. The only three I’m comfortable ruling out of this are Hargam, Old Guard and Sempre Medici (so watch one of them roar in).
I’ve thought all season that Hargam was being used as a marker for the other Henderson horses. He doesn’t get up the hill at Cheltenham either and this is probably his final prep for something at Aintree or Ayr. Old Guard just doesn’t have the form in the book in my opinion and surely if he had a realistic chance Twiston-Davies would have stayed with him. Sempre Medici came over earlier in the season and couldn’t beat Old Guard but would have given Mullins and Walsh a line to their other hopes.
Speaking of which, I have no issue with Annie Power’s position as favourite but I wouldn’t be interested in backing her at short odds in this race. Mullins is on record, admittedly a couple of seasons ago, as saying she doesn’t jump fast enough for a top two-mile race. Her allowance sees her 6lbs clear top on official ratings but that wouldn’t be hard in this field and it would fall short of the 170+ you really want a Champion Hurdler to hit. Then again, maybe only Faugheen would have been able to do that this year. Nichols Canyon took advantage of a rare below-par run from Faugheen in November but was nearly 30 lengths behind him in the Irish Champion Hurdle. That was clearly not his form either and he has the beating of Identity Thief in the Ryanair Hurdle at the back end of the year. The latter may have travelled the better during the race but when the gun was put to their head it was Nichols Canyon who wanted the win the more.
Fans of The New One will claim he was unlucky last year having made a mistake on the far side but I reckon only Gary Larson could draw the conclusion – see what I did there? – that it cost him the race. It maybe cost him a place or two, but nine lengths?
Camping Ground looked good the time before last over 2½ miles in the Relkeel in heavy ground but only Lil Rockerfeller ran his race that day and this will be a different test altogether. Lil Rockerfeller himself is much more interesting, having been supplemented, and I hope connections are rewarded with at least a place for a horse who leaves nothing in his box. If he can improve another three or four pounds he has a realistic chance of making the frame given the lack of quality in the opposition.
This just leaves the other Henderson runners. Hargam has the highest rating [of them] in the table but we know he isn’t the stable’s main hope so I’m happy to assume we can expect at least one of Top Notch, My Tent Or Yours and Peace And Co to outrun Hargam’s rating. My Tent Or Yours would go close with a reproduction of his second to Jezki two years ago but getting a horse to perform at that level first time up is a huge task. Peace And Co was clearly better than Top Notch last season but nothing has gone right for him so far this time round. Then again, he’s only had two runs and the trainer insists we can’t count the first of those because “he ran flat out for a mile”. He also went on the record at the start of the season as saying that he didn’t think Top Notch or Hargam could give Faugheen a race but that Peace And Co could. I have to say I just cannot fancy Top Notch for this and given that Jacob appears to have opted for him over Peace And Co tempers the enthusiasm for the latter. Then again, maybe Henderson has advised the owners that Peace And Co needs more knowing and De Boinville would know him much better than anyone and strongly suggested that he gets the ride. That aside, for all that pundits and forumites alike have trashed the Triumph form because of Top Notch and Peace And Co, such criticism does not stand up to close scrutiny as plenty of the beaten horses are running off much higher marks this season. Hargam himself is 9lbs higher and Top Notch is up 4lbs but Peace And Co has dropped 2lbs. I expect the latter pair to put up improved runs here. Five-year-olds do have an unimpressive record in the race so they’re probably at a disadvantage but this is not a genuinely high class renewal.
This just leaves Sign Of A Victory, my cliff horse. He really needs the ground to dry up for him. You could argue that he put up his career best performance first time up at Ascot in the William Hill, form which Jolly’s Cracked It franked next time out, despite pulling hard for the first mile. He may also have been short of peak fitness that day. Then he was sent to Kempton to take on Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle and for a long time was the only one of the opposition that comprised The New One, Old Guard and Hargam to travel as easily as Faugheen but he came off the bit two out (by which time the others were hard at it) and dropped out tamely. It may have been the ground, or lack of stamina or lack of fitness and we haven’t heard any reason given but it was also the fifth time in as many runs over hurdles since he hacked up first time out last season that he didn’t finish his race. He did also hack up in an AW flat race ahead of last year’s festival, reportedly clocking a serious time rating, but I wouldn’t attach any relevance to that. He’s off 153 here but Henderson also stated last year that they “know” he’s better than the 161-rated Purple Bay, so he deserves his place in a top race.
So what wins?
Annie Power is probably the one to beat and if my objective were simply to pick the winner – almost certainly the aim of the lazy racing journalist – I’d probably nominate her, but as part of a long-term profitable betting approach I have to let her go unbacked as poor value. I’ve been backing Peace And Co since October from 10/1 up to 20/1 in the belief that he’s been the Henderson main hope all along but I have to admit as the big day approaches that confidence is low. I really wanted to see more than I’ve seen so far but Henderson himself insisted after last time that he would definitely improve a lot for the race. Sign Of A Victory carries some cash at monster prices [to lay, if possible] because he’s a cliff horse and this is a weak race in depth and if the ground turns up good on Tuesday he could run into a place. Trying to look at the race afresh and dispassionately, I have to conclude Nichols Canyon is the percentage call and a 1pt stake, if successful, would recoup losses on the other bets and leave me marginally in front on the race. I shall have to settle for that.
(Written before Old Guard was withdrawn and edited this morning.)
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