The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

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EC1 said:
they all went the early pace..i could tell because all the jockeys looked like Lester Piggott on Nijinsky for most of the race..and not one jockey looked like they couldn't go the early pace. If i owned a 2 miler who couldn't go that early pace..i'd be a bit concerned tbh.

Which bit did you think he struggled with the pace?..a 100 yards before they jumped the 2nd last..he was last....jock still just stood in irons there..same as from flag fall..after 2nd last he goes for a rail run..gets blocked..probably lost a couple of lengths there...then ran past 10 hosses who had petrol left. Very eye catching to me..others might think not..we all see things differently.
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The question only occurred to me because of something that came up when I was discussing the race with my brother last night.

He said that after the race the trainer of the winner - who came from last - had said something about the horse not staying a true run 2m. If he'd been asked to go faster earlier he wouldn't have got home. The suggestion was that the race fell right for him.

I was just wondering if Bishopslough might be the same. He obviously has pace, as his finish shows, but would he be able to deploy it if he'd been running harder for more of the race?

The whole shebang was entirely unsatisfactory to me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The question only occurred to me because of something that came up when I was discussing the race with my brother last night.

He said that after the race the trainer of the winner - who came from last - had said something about the horse not staying a true run 2m. If he'd been asked to go faster earlier he wouldn't have got home. The suggestion was that the race fell right for him.

I was just wondering if Bishopslough might be the same. He obviously has pace, as his finish shows, but would he be able to deploy it if he'd been running harder for more of the race?

The whole shebang was entirely unsatisfactory to me.
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i wouldn't really see the winner like that tbh..it might be...his last run..from a race that has worked out well..if had been held on to longer there..would have won it probably..the fact he went to soon in a very stongly run race was his downfall..hit the front to early there.

it may well be he doesn't stay in a strongly run race..but that last run told me different.

Bishopslough doesn't look like that either to me..won over 17f before without showing signs of being a short runner

aye it was an unsatisfactory test yeterday..but you have to take what you can from it..being off that pace at 2 out was a disadvantage..they were hard lengths to make back..so yes speed is needed to pass em...but passing them shows there is winning effort somewhere along the line from one that can do that

i think you have to look at what a horse has done in past to decide if it is a short runner in these situations
 
EC1 said:
i wouldn't really see the winner like that tbh..it might be...his last run..from a race that has worked out well..if had been held on to longer there..would have won it probably..the fact he went to soon in a very stongly run race was his downfall..hit the front to early there.
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Could it be that the jockey told the trainer last time - or the trainer interpreted it for himself - that the horse, rather than going too soon, just didn't get home in the more strongly run race?

Wasn't there a comment in the last 24/48 hours somewhere that there was no way the 2m track at Leopardstown at the weekend was anywhere near 2m?
 
Re-read the first 50 pages today. Can't believe the thread is going nearly 3 years. What was most telling was how much Harry liked me in 2013

:lol:
 
It's an interesting piece all right and Caro knows his stuff but this theory shouldn't have been too difficult for him to stumble across given it's how pension and long term discretionary investment plans have been setup for years.

Gradual shift from higher equity weighted (medium risk) -> developed country treasuries (low risk) as the fund matures and grows in value.
 
wilsonl said:
It's an interesting piece all right and Caro knows his stuff but this theory shouldn't have been too difficult for him to stumble across given it's how pension and long term discretionary investment plans have been setup for years.

Gradual shift from higher equity weighted (medium risk) -> developed country treasuries (low risk) as the fund matures and grows in value.
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You'd be amazed how many people would argued grinding at the start.
 
You've got to take risk when you're young. With investable capital this means equity risk primarily. I'm 34 and 90pc of our assets (excluding the house) are in shares.

There is a massive risk involved with not taking enough risk - namely the risk that your capital won't grow enough to meet your future needs.

I'm sure you can apply the same principle to risk in betting.
 
BennyB said:
You've got to take risk when you're young. With investable capital this means equity risk primarily. I'm 34 and 90pc of our assets (excluding the house) are in shares.

There is a massive risk involved with not taking enough risk - namely the risk that your capital won't grow enough to meet your future needs.

I'm sure you can apply the same principle to risk in betting.
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I took plenty of risks risks in my late twenties/early thirties-I can remember the wife crying at me when I bought a third property .To cut a long story short I was trying to sell the first property for a few years when somebody randomly knocked on the door and offered to buy it ,the third property was a flat in London -the sale was completed the day before Osana won the 2007 International Hurdle -ten days later the markets were completely screwed.The second property is the modest 3 bedroom semi that I live in mortgage free.I know there was a property bubble at the time but I think getting your chips off the table at the right time is a serious skill.
I'm now at the stage where I'm conscious of every direct debit and know that the oldest child will go to University in 6 years time-kind of takes the edge off you.
Biggest regret as regards risk is that after the recession started I told someone that it was an opportunity to make money-I ploughed a 5 figure amount into a certain Irish share but after 3 months of checking the price every night I sold up making two and sixpence- share price has increased by the best part of 600%.
With hindsight we could all make millions and ride better looking women-the trick is actually doing it first time around the block.
 
A lot of it, in my opinion, involves luck or just being in the right place at the right time.

I am actually very risk averse, which some who know my betting patterns might find difficult to believe. Mrs O even more so.

But we've been very lucky in the property market over 35 years of marriage.

We decided when we were getting married we didn't want to follow the crowd and start off in a flat so we scrimped for long enough to afford a new-build 2-bedroom mid=terrace house which was being sold for a fiver under the stamp duty threshhold but didn't cost much more than the flats our pals had bought. That was at a time when interest rates were high and property prices on as steep a curve as a Mullins import.

We moved after 5 years and made nearly 50% on the house. The next house, 3-bedroom semi, we left after 3 years, again with a near-50% profit. It needed a lot of work, about £15k's worth, I reckoned (new kitchen, bathroom, extension, double glazing etc) but we got a brand new detached house with 4 bedrooms, double glazing etc, for £20k more than we sold the house for. We were lucky there too. We got it at a discounted price because it was the last in a development and the original sale had just fallen through. The next phase was £15k dearer and was starting to sell and within a month the price had gone up another £15k. Then the curve stopped and a lot of the new buyers found themselves in negative equity. We sold after five years but made £20k.

The real beauty is why we moved.

It was always my dream to build my own house and we were lucky that things fell in our laps again. The property market slumped. Sales in a prestigious development had slowed to nothing so the builder was selling off the serviced plots. So we bought a plot, moved into temporary rented accommodation and got the house built to my own very high (for the time) spec. The day we took possession of the keys the house was valued at at least £130k more than the entire project had cost to build. Shortly after we moved in a guy chapped the door and offered to buy the house for cash. He only offered a further £100k [over the new valuation] so I turned him down (as it would have cost us that to move to temporary accommodation again and we'd never have found as good a plot in as good a location. I'd have thought about it for £200k more but he wasn't for offering that. Whether he was a gangster or drug baron I've no idea but we never saw him again. That was almost 20 years ago. The house may not have gone up too much in value but it certainly hasn't come down.

We went for interest-only endowment mortgages the whole way and the first few endowments paid out very well before the market flattened.

When I retired my lump sum paid of 75% of the mortgage and when Mrs O retired three years later we cleared it.

Our income is now less than half of what it was five years ago but we don't need to worry too much about money. The cars are more modest and the holidays are more carefully thought out but that's about it. We're just more conscious about being more prudent and we fritter much less than we used to.

Would I have risked any kind of money in stocks and shares? No way.

PS
The next house move will be a significant downsize and we're thinking of putting the spare cash towards property overseas but that's something that requires a wee bit more info.
 
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Good story DO.

My life in property lies somewhere between you and Luke, although if me and Mrs AC had tried to build a house together the best case would have been an angry divorce. Our deep and enduring love would not withstand any attempt to do work together, especially as I would be cutting corners and she blowing the budget.
 
I understand. I wondered if I should have made a career for myself in sales, so gargantuan was the task of convincing her about the self-build.

I ended up virtually dragging her into the head office of the Abbey National in Glasgow (the only people who did mortgages specifically for that type of project) to talk to 'the man'.

I remember the exact question I asked him at the end of the conversation: "So you're sure this is a sober proposition."

His reply: "If I were you I wouldn't hesitate."

That was enough to convince her.

She claims she'd never do it again but I want to...
 
It's just dawned on me that we have turned Slim's thread into a marriage/property forum for middle-aged, risk averse men.

Revenge will be swift and bloody. I am going to the mattresses.
 
an capall said:
It's just dawned on me that we have turned Slim's thread into a marriage/property forum for middle-aged, risk averse men.

Revenge will be swift and bloody. I am going to the mattresses.
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I've printed off the last page of the thread. I've removed the poster of the 2002 U-17 netball national championship winners from my bathroom mirror and replaced it with said old man whining sheet. It will remind everyday not to end up like you b@stards.
 
SlimChance said:
January 17th
Leopardstown Coral.ie hurdle
Kalkir 20/1 or 16/1
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From Narrowing The Field


Mullins may not be too crash-hot in handicap chases on this side of the Irish Sea but he knows how to nail a handicap hurdle or two, specifically the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle.

Since 2010 he has landed three County Hurdles and three Martin Pipe Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. All six of those winners could be found by using the following little angle…
Willie Mullins County Hurdle/Martin Pipe Hurdle runners | Aged 5yo or 6yo | SP 25/1 or less
Applying those filters gives the following set of figures…
6/17 | 35% S/R | +£75.81 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/17 | 71% S/R
All six of his winners from only 17 qualifiers.
There were no qualifiers in 2012 and his two qualifiers in 2013 both placed.
The others years under scrutiny provided winners and a healthy profit.
It’s an extremely simple angle but also extremely profitable.
So who could be the likely candidate this year?



Step forward 5yo KALKIR, who ran an excellent second in the Coral.ie Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.
It was his first run for 10 months, since pulling up in last seasons Triumph Hurdle, but the promise he showed in the early part of his juvenile campaign is clearly still there and there is every chance he will improve a bundle for this outing.
He holds an entry for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury although that track hasn’t been the happiest hunting ground for Mullins raiders in recent seasons, with his 18 runners all finishing un-placed.
A solid mid-division finish there for Kalkir would be the ideal prep run for a tilt at the County Hurdle (or Martin Pipe Hurdle should they fancy stepping him up in trip) and providing he isn’t strung out with the no-hopers in the betting at Cheltenham (he shouldn’t be) then he will be a snug qualifier on my Mullins County/Martin Pipe Hurdle angle.
Even if he doesn’t end up heading to the festival he’s well worth keeping on the radar as he is surely some way better than his current mark of OR 137 (will go up for this).


Keep Kalkir on the radar, he’s definitely got a handicap hurdle in him somewhere before seasons end…
 
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