To be honest Kalkir is pretty obvious without the trends. He'll almost certainly go to the County (I'm pretty sure Renetti is the number one for the Coral), and I reinvested some of what I laid back last week on both. It'd be only right and proper that he wins it anyway given Slim's legendary recent advice.
With regards narrowingthefield's simple analysis, the profiling of horses that have won the Martin Pipe with is revealing if you use those stats and dig deeper to find the right one and as far ahead of time as practically possible. You're looking for a novice hurdler that's national hunt bred (probably a very good bumper horse last season), or equivalent previous season form from the french provinces, who looks like a quick improver, and is likely to get the right mark given this is a 0-145 handicap. It will have been campaigned extremely carefully this season so it's not properly exposed and gets the right mark for the race if it's a bumper horse. Or it's an ex-French improver with size and scope that has started from a mark that they can carefully control. You're not necessarily looking for a horse that's won yet this season, and most likely it's hurdles form is far behind what it achieved in bumpers. But it will win before the Festival, probably held up, and only doing enough to win on the line.
Nambour is an obvious one for race at the moment based on reading form, plus what the current market says, but whilst I think it's very possible he'll contest the race, I'm not sure he's the right type or will even be the stables best chance. I wouldn't totally discount him though if he gets in light. The other one the market says is Petit Mouchoir. You can make a case for him, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him because much will depend on the handicappers reading of his run behind Long Dog when he gets a mark. A literal view would probably see him being allocated 145 or 146 plus whatever the British handicapper decides to give him in addition. It's a 0-145 so he may not get in and could end up in the Coral Cup instead. The possibility remains though that he runs like a pig next time and he allocates him 141-143 which would probably see the British handicapper then allocating him 144 or 145 for the Festival. I'll wait to see what happens because ironically his price is likely to get bigger at the same time as being sure of getting the run. None of the other Mullins horses quoted interest me because they look too exposed, but I don't discount re-visiting them.
On the watchlist at the moment are Stone Hard and Pylonthepressure, who both have the hallmarks of already being plotted for a race like this. I'm also waiting to see the mark Up For Review gets as he is also a likely type. There are also a couple more that I'm watching out for next time who could yet emerge and fit the bill. In total though I reckon outside Nambour there are only 5 genuine possibilities that he could run in the race. Only two or three of them are really looking like they could possibly get a generous mark when compared to their bumper form though.
Anyway in the spirit of this thread, this is long-winded way of saying I'm absolutely convinced Mullins is lining up hard to win all three races. So I'm suggesting a 'Will Win' e/w double on Kalkir for the County Hurdle (20/1) and Renetti for the Coral Cup (25/1). I've also taken single prices both win and e/w. I'll be adding the winner of the Martin Pipe Conditionals as a further single, the doubles and a treble. And just to remove any ambiguity, the 'Will Win' basis of my post is on an e/w basis, not win singles.
With regards narrowingthefield's simple analysis, the profiling of horses that have won the Martin Pipe with is revealing if you use those stats and dig deeper to find the right one and as far ahead of time as practically possible. You're looking for a novice hurdler that's national hunt bred (probably a very good bumper horse last season), or equivalent previous season form from the french provinces, who looks like a quick improver, and is likely to get the right mark given this is a 0-145 handicap. It will have been campaigned extremely carefully this season so it's not properly exposed and gets the right mark for the race if it's a bumper horse. Or it's an ex-French improver with size and scope that has started from a mark that they can carefully control. You're not necessarily looking for a horse that's won yet this season, and most likely it's hurdles form is far behind what it achieved in bumpers. But it will win before the Festival, probably held up, and only doing enough to win on the line.
Nambour is an obvious one for race at the moment based on reading form, plus what the current market says, but whilst I think it's very possible he'll contest the race, I'm not sure he's the right type or will even be the stables best chance. I wouldn't totally discount him though if he gets in light. The other one the market says is Petit Mouchoir. You can make a case for him, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him because much will depend on the handicappers reading of his run behind Long Dog when he gets a mark. A literal view would probably see him being allocated 145 or 146 plus whatever the British handicapper decides to give him in addition. It's a 0-145 so he may not get in and could end up in the Coral Cup instead. The possibility remains though that he runs like a pig next time and he allocates him 141-143 which would probably see the British handicapper then allocating him 144 or 145 for the Festival. I'll wait to see what happens because ironically his price is likely to get bigger at the same time as being sure of getting the run. None of the other Mullins horses quoted interest me because they look too exposed, but I don't discount re-visiting them.
On the watchlist at the moment are Stone Hard and Pylonthepressure, who both have the hallmarks of already being plotted for a race like this. I'm also waiting to see the mark Up For Review gets as he is also a likely type. There are also a couple more that I'm watching out for next time who could yet emerge and fit the bill. In total though I reckon outside Nambour there are only 5 genuine possibilities that he could run in the race. Only two or three of them are really looking like they could possibly get a generous mark when compared to their bumper form though.
Anyway in the spirit of this thread, this is long-winded way of saying I'm absolutely convinced Mullins is lining up hard to win all three races. So I'm suggesting a 'Will Win' e/w double on Kalkir for the County Hurdle (20/1) and Renetti for the Coral Cup (25/1). I've also taken single prices both win and e/w. I'll be adding the winner of the Martin Pipe Conditionals as a further single, the doubles and a treble. And just to remove any ambiguity, the 'Will Win' basis of my post is on an e/w basis, not win singles.
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