The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

SlimChance said:
Curragh 2.40
Sufoof
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just for info..

the ground is a lot worse than last week here..its 109 lengths per mile slow this week...last week it was "only" -44 lpm on the straight. In flat terms its bottomless and some..bottomless on the flat is -77

By way of comparison..Donny yesterday was bad enough at -56

this is probably some of the worst flat ground
 
EC1 said:
just for info..

the ground is a lot worse than last week here..its 109 lengths per mile slow this week...last week it was "only" -44 lpm on the straight. In flat terms its bottomless and some..bottomless on the flat is -77

By way of comparison..Donny yesterday was bad enough at -56

this is probably some of the worst flat ground
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That is a concern because she just got run out of it the last day but she's far better drawn today. There's nothing else strongly fancied in the race.
 
i think its worth looking at the distance suggestion from the breeding when the ground is this bad..the races themselves won't seem like they are being run at the trip..its like they need to stay at least another furlong+..just to get home..looking at the 3 at the head of the betting in that race Sufoof would look like a proper 6f horse whilst the other two had a bit more stoutness in their breeding. Change the ground to Good g/s and such as Sufoof would look better option in that race.

its just worth bearing in mind in these conditions imo..extra stamina is needed by some way
 
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EC1 said:
i think its worth looking at the distance suggestion from the breeding when the ground is this bad..the races themselves won't seem like they are being run at the trip..its like they need to stay at least another furlong+..just to get home..looking at the 3 at the head of the betting in that race Sufoof would look like a proper 6f horse whilst the other two had a bit more stoutness in their breeding. Change the ground to Good g/s and such as Sufoof would look better option in that race.

its just worth bearing in mind in these conditions imo..extra stamina is needed by some way
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What does the breeding say about the Weld horse in the last?
 
no i'm not messing with Slim's info...i only posted becasue its so bad here and i think its info that people should bear in mind Benny

we all make our minds up in this game and info about everything is key..the ground today needs bearing in mind..because its not heavy as such..its absolute pap...even with the horse that won the first..it had stamina on the dam side..whereas the fav in that 2yo race looks a speedier type

i just look at distance medians of sire and damsire and make a rough judgement on that

just have a look at the time that mdn thats just been runn..its 14 seconds slower than standard..they only went 6f..its a 7f time.. something like 7 or 8 seconds slow is really bad ground at 6f..heavy ground..14 seconds slow is just mental
 
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EC1 said:
no i'm not messing with Slim's info...i only posted becasue its so bad here and i think its info that people should bear in mind Benny

we all make our minds up in this game and info about everything is key..the ground today needs bearing in mind..because its not heavy as such..its absolute pap...even with the horse that won the first..it had stamina on the dam side..whereas the fav in that looks speedier type

i just look at distance medians of sire and damsire and make a rough judgement on that

just have a look at the time that mdn has just been run in..its 14 seconds slower than standard..they only went 6f..its a 7f time.. something like 7 or 8 seconds slow is really bad ground..heavy ground..14 seconds slow is just mental
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The O'Brien horse in the last is bred to get 2 miles :D
 
EC1 said:
i know..looks like a Gold cup hoss:D..but i wasn't saying Slim

go with info..thats what you do

i had to mention the ground though..its so bad
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I love that you're posting times etc on Irish racing. Keep it up. The horse ran its a race so, traded 1.67 in running but clearly didn't get home on the ground as you alluded to before the race. I thought the draw was the biggest help. I still think it was a bet at 9/4 so I've no complaints. I think members know they will win following me in the long run and take the good with the bad.. Two furlongs out you wouldn't have wanted to be on the 2nd who eventually traded 1.05!
 
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don't start liking stats Benny...we all they know they rubbish:)..and sectionals are nonsense.

the more stoutly bred is AOB's but Slims has High Chapparal on dam side..so i wouldn't like to call it
 
EC1 said:
don't start liking stats Benny...we all they know they rubbish:)..and sectionals are nonsense.

the more stoutly bred is AOB's but Slims has High Chapparal on dam side..so i wouldn't like to call it
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There were Weld men not seen since the 90's that came out of the woodwork at 5pm yesterday when prices went up. I'll be shocked if the Weld horse is beat.
 
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Elusive Ellen ( 4.20) absolutely blew in dropped back to this trip latest, and should have the legs of a similar bunch today.
Current 9/4 is a bonus.
 
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