The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Great idea for a thread, Slim, and unlucky with your first one.
Wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea at the price (currently 11/10 tops), but Ryan Moore pays his first ever visit to Southwell AW tomorrow, specifically to ride his father's easy lto course winner Stentorian, and the hint should be taken.
 
reet hard said:
Great idea for a thread, Slim, and unlucky with your first one.
Wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea at the price (currently 11/10 tops), but Ryan Moore pays his first ever visit to Southwell AW tomorrow, specifically to ride his father's easy lto course winner Stentorian, and the hint should be taken.
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Surely thats enough for it to go off 4/7 or shorter. Is the form in the book?
 
Ponty 4.15 Spanish Duke @ 8/1 & 7/1

I wouldn't beg borrow or steal to back this, but I have had a decent bet on this, even though I'm clueless how the stable move will affect the horse. It's a competitive race with the rag price only 14/1.

Pointless profiling this race, as most of the trainers have a decent record with the race, but the Ellison has won the race at 16/1 from three attempts recently.

I simply think there are a few factors that combined mqake him a bet for me.

I'm keeping a close eye on the ex J. Dunlop horses, as he had a terrible season, even if he did recover slightly at the end of the season.

SD comes here on a mark of 92, 3lb lower than last winning mark, but had little chance last year running off the 100's, from a stable totally out of form.

Career best run came on a stiff 10f on g- g/s and has a decent draw.

Won off a similar break break before.

Although it's entirely possible other targets are the plan, I really wouldn't expect the 1st time hood to be on.

There is another ex Dunlop horse making it's debut for new trainer, but his best form appears to be with "firm".

If anyone can put me off, all comments welcome.
 
Wish I'd known you lads were jinxing it earlier - I'd have gone for something else in my preview ;-)

Top call SC - was 2/5 in the photo too :(
 
Irish Stamp said:
Wish I'd known you lads were jinxing it earlier - I'd have gone for something else in my preview ;-)

Top call SC - was 2/5 in the photo too :(
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Good spot tipping it mate. Never a 10/1 shot. I'vse heard the print is dubious to say the least
 
They had two odds-on shots beaten in photo's at Gowran today - the photo judges are normally spot on so that sort of thing would certainly have me asking questions and the 10's didn't last very long this morning (7 mins according to Oddschecker) so hope you were on E/W :)
 
Irish Stamp said:
They had two odds-on shots beaten in photo's at Gowran today - the photo judges are normally spot on so that sort of thing would certainly have me asking questions and the 10's didn't last very long this morning (7 mins according to Oddschecker) so hope you were on E/W :)
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You can buy the photo finish print of any race in Ireland on the goracing.ie site for only €20. ;)
 
SlimChance said:
Is the form in the book?
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They're clearly running him to escape a sizeable rise, and over a distance he's failed twice before at, but that was 18 months ago, and with a small field and one of the finest pace judges in the business, it oughtn't to be a problem.
 
I'ts always clever money when they win, Slim, and though this one lost, it's quite wrong to think jockey bookings aren't of any import.
Time will tell.
 
The thought of having members like The Ante Post King & Slim Chance on here is not worth bearing to thinking about.

quite rich coming from the sad f?*ckwit who displays more ids than Dick Emery....but about 0.1% as funny as his were
 
reet hard said:
I'ts always clever money when they win, Slim, and though this one lost, it's quite wrong to think jockey bookings aren't of any import.
Time will tell.
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I'm not sure any bet where a jockey booking can significantly compress the price can ever be a maximum bet.
 
Reet, whilst your reasoning was sound i think what Slim is getting at, is that kind of post would be better suited on the "What are you backing Today Thread"
 
Agree with jft, looks to me like this thread should be for when you have had word from the stable or owners and you are 100% confident...hence why I haven't put any of my guesses up!
 
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