S
SlimChance
Guest
Not into all this laying off bollocks so the price means nowt unless it wins!
But backing something with an implied 23% chance of winning at 7/1 or bigger is sound business.
Not into all this laying off bollocks so the price means nowt unless it wins!
Is the SP a better indication of a horse's true chance than the price two hours before the off?
Of course it is because its when most money is traded on the market.
True, but on occasion, momentum-money (aka uninformed; that which merely follows a market-springer) can drive a horse's price down beyond the floor of its 'real' price.
No?
The Betfair SP is in my opinion the closest reflection of the horses implied chance.
Spot on. The Betfair SP is probably accurate 90-95% of the time.
You have to be a hell of a judge (and have discipline of a super human) to only join in on the 5-10% when it's wrong.
Bottom line is, if you're not beating Betfair SP on your bets regularly, you should give up the game.
Had this debate thousands of times but it still seems to come back up.
But you can't know if you're beating the Betfair SP when you place your bets around 10am, which is 90% of the time for me. I'd like to think the BOG will at least minimise the damage if I'm wrong.
No but if over a year, you haven't beat Betfair SP overall in terms of % chance points, you'll have less money than at the start of the year and you should probably put your money in premium bonds instead.
Indeed BOG helps but it does only reduce losses if you're wrong.
I did keep records for all Betfair SPs for all my bets but since moving jobs I haven't had chance to maintain. I was well well clear on % chance points but not very clear in profitability but know it will turn if continuing.
No but if over a year, you haven't beat Betfair SP overall in terms of % chance points, you'll have less money than at the start of the year and you should probably put your money in premium bonds instead.
Indeed BOG helps but it does only reduce losses if you're wrong.
I did keep records for all Betfair SPs for all my bets but since moving jobs I haven't had chance to maintain. I was well well clear on % chance points but not very clear in profitability but know it will turn if continuing.
I'd also be quite surprised if the odds I get at 10am end up frequently worse than either SP or Betfair SP.
Amateurs -
Down Royal 6.15 - English Deer