The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
Very true, but did the 8-1 or the 100-30 reflect the true chance of winning?! Is the SP a better indication of a horse's true chance than the price two hours before the off?
 
BennyB said:
Is the SP a better indication of a horse's true chance than the price two hours before the off?
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Of course it is because its when most money is traded on the market. The Betfair SP is in my opinion the closest reflection of the horses implied chance.
 
SlimChance said:
Of course it is because its when most money is traded on the market.
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True, but on occasion, momentum-money (aka uninformed; that which merely follows a market-springer) can drive a horse's price down beyond the floor of its 'real' price.

No?
 
Grasshopper said:
True, but on occasion, momentum-money (aka uninformed; that which merely follows a market-springer) can drive a horse's price down beyond the floor of its 'real' price.

No?
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Not really. Betfair drives the market on the show. Mugs will always back favs.
 
SlimChance said:
The Betfair SP is in my opinion the closest reflection of the horses implied chance.
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Spot on. The Betfair SP is probably accurate 90-95% of the time.

You have to be a hell of a judge (and have discipline of a super human) to only join in on the 5-10% when it's wrong.

Bottom line is, if you're not beating Betfair SP on your bets regularly, you should give up the game.

Had this debate thousands of times but it still seems to come back up.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Spot on. The Betfair SP is probably accurate 90-95% of the time.

You have to be a hell of a judge (and have discipline of a super human) to only join in on the 5-10% when it's wrong.

Bottom line is, if you're not beating Betfair SP on your bets regularly, you should give up the game.

Had this debate thousands of times but it still seems to come back up.
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But you can't know if you're beating the Betfair SP when you place your bets around 10am, which is 90% of the time for me. I'd like to think the BOG will at least minimise the damage if I'm wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But you can't know if you're beating the Betfair SP when you place your bets around 10am, which is 90% of the time for me. I'd like to think the BOG will at least minimise the damage if I'm wrong.
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No but if over a year, you haven't beat Betfair SP overall in terms of % chance points, you'll have less money than at the start of the year and you should probably put your money in premium bonds instead.

Indeed BOG helps but it does only reduce losses if you're wrong.

I did keep records for all Betfair SPs for all my bets but since moving jobs I haven't had chance to maintain. I was well well clear on % chance points but not very clear in profitability but know it will turn if continuing.
 
Gamla Stan said:
No but if over a year, you haven't beat Betfair SP overall in terms of % chance points, you'll have less money than at the start of the year and you should probably put your money in premium bonds instead.

Indeed BOG helps but it does only reduce losses if you're wrong.

I did keep records for all Betfair SPs for all my bets but since moving jobs I haven't had chance to maintain. I was well well clear on % chance points but not very clear in profitability but know it will turn if continuing.
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I don't need to keep records as I'm certain I beat the BSP 75% of the time. That's why if Bet Butler where a viable organisation and continued to LTL my account £750 I'd be long odds on to win money in the long run.
 
Gamla Stan said:
No but if over a year, you haven't beat Betfair SP overall in terms of % chance points, you'll have less money than at the start of the year and you should probably put your money in premium bonds instead.

Indeed BOG helps but it does only reduce losses if you're wrong.

I did keep records for all Betfair SPs for all my bets but since moving jobs I haven't had chance to maintain. I was well well clear on % chance points but not very clear in profitability but know it will turn if continuing.
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I know for a fact I make a very healthy (to me) profit over a year so it doesn't worry me.

I wouldn't bet if I knew I was losing, other than maybe a fun bet in the biggest races, 'cos that would mean I was wasting my time studying the form.

I'd also be quite surprised if the odds I get at 10am end up frequently worse than either SP or Betfair SP.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'd also be quite surprised if the odds I get at 10am end up frequently worse than either SP or Betfair SP.
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I've no doubt you beat the BSP a lot of the time its just not your aim when you place your bets! I did say to you after Cheltenham that getting best price is more important than guaranteed prices in the morning.
 
Geez, was that as long ago as that?

You're right. Because of how I bet, my aim is to get the best price in the morning with the BOG. Betfair bets are few and far between but if I have half an eye on a 25/1 shot I like, it's likely a good bit longer than that at Betfair so I'll take the win bet there to reduced stakes there and hope for somewhere close to 1/4 the price place-only to bigger stakes with the other bookies. That would be my ideal each-way scenario but in truth very few of my bets are each-way. I tend not even to think about each-way unless we're looking at something no shorter than 201.
 
My political bet is now into 1.03. There was some punter down here the other day lobbed $750K on, biggest political bet by far in Australian history.

Well done with that nice winner the other day, SC. I missed it as usual, but that was indeed nice.
 
Seeing this political bet reminds me of one that I will put in a Will Win.

Seanad Referendum not to pass in Ireland at 11/10 (pp) Not sure that's the best price in town, but I think its a long odds on that it wont pass. Government bringing in the referendum only out of a misguided pre-election proposal. Lots of government support lukewarm as they are doing buddies and possibly themselves out of jobs. Public dont want it either. Something like 2/5 would be about right in my book.
 
Time to ressurect this thread...

Price is long gone but Flicka Williams will do the business in the 5.40 Bangor.
 
Not trying to jump on trefflich's bandwagon here but I was also told Flicka Williams was a good thing today. Have been on a bad run of form recently so was keeping quiet about it and hope it wins!!
 
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