The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Nice one Reet!

I haven't worked it out, but I have a feeling this thread might be slightly in profit overall ;)
 
I'd expect him to trade shorter than that when Vettel and the Mercs pit early. It's far from in-the-bag, though, as Vettel generally goes through slower cars like a knife through butter. I'm hoping for a price-rick after his first stop.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'd expect him to trade shorter than that when Vettel and the Mercs pit early. It's far from in-the-bag, though, as Vettel generally goes through slower cars like a knife through butter. I'm hoping for a price-rick after his first stop.
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I backed him at 9-2, happy to let it ride. He should be either first or second.
 
A stupid question from someone ignorant of motorsport, please ....................
How many positions are there in a "podium finish"?
I would have thought three (1st, 2nd and 3rd), but the Betfair market overround of 1,100% suggests something around 9 or ten. :blink:
Could anyone enlighten me? (I'ld like to know before having a small interest-only flutter on Grosjean)
Ta in advance.
 
Cheers. Thank you.

(In fact, I realise I made a huge error -- I was looking at the "Points Finish" market.
The Podium Finish percentage on Betfair is actually 312% which would be around right for 3 positions.).
Apologies for wasting time. :o
 
No probs. Most bookies seem to go 1/3 the odds 2 places at present. They also tend to do top six finish markets which can be good if you fancy a grosjean type performer.
 
icebreaker said:
Cheers. Thank you.

(In fact, I realise I made a huge error -- I was looking at the "Points Finish" market.
The Podium Finish percentage on Betfair is actually 312% which would be around right for 3 positions.).
Apologies for wasting time. :o
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IMO, the best price about Grosjean is the 6/4 about a Top 6 finish, icebreaker.

His starts have been tremendous of late, he is in a fundamentally quick car that's kind on his tyres, and those just ahead of him are in inferior machinery. He could have hauled himself up to the top-ten by the time the first pit-stops take place, and with the Mercs not particularly quick on long-run pace in Practice (I again expect them to fall through the field here), grosjean could quickly find himself in and about the likes of Button, Massa and Hulkenberg. Podium looks out of reach though.
 
Good idea.
Just checked, Grosjean ~ 2.6 for Top 6.
but ..........................~ 9.0 for Podium Finish.

Decisions, Decisions. :rolleyes:
(What way would you go, B?)
 
Grassy knows 1,000,000 times more than me, but I agree with him on this anyway. 6-4 for top six looks fair, but can't see him on the podium. I reckon a red bull 1-2 here so they are all fighting for 3rd.
 
Cheers Grass. Crossposted with yours. :lol:

That's what I'll do then. A Small-y on Top 6 -- and maybe, just maybe -- a smaller Small-y on Podium). :)
 
BTW, important to say that Grosjean is not a selection from me -- no kudos for me if he goes well. :)
It was Grasshopper who flagged it on the "Will Win Sports" thread:
"Romain Grosjean will land Podium odds of 11/8 in the Indian Grand Prix this weekend."
Which made me think that he must be backed however small a bet at the current 8.0 -- 11.0 range for value sake alone if nothing else?
 
icebreaker said:
BTW, important to say that Grosjean is not a selection from me -- no kudos for me if he goes well. :)
It was Grasshopper who flagged it on the "Will Win Sports" thread:
"Romain Grosjean will land Podium odds of 11/8 in the Indian Grand Prix this weekend."
Which made me think that he must be backed however small a bet at the current 8.0 -- 11.0 range for value sake alone if nothing else?
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Icebreaker, that recommendation was made pre-Qualifying, and in the expectation that the Lotus team would not monumentally f*ck-up in Q1 and leave him mired in 17th position.

I probably need to point this out, as I can't really stand behind it now. :cool:
 
Apologies for putting you off the scent, icebreaker. Unbelievable drive from GRO to get on the Podium (though Webber parking the car and torpedoing other bets helped).

No idea WTF Red Bull were thinking of, putting WEB on the soft mid-race. Could only have been to ensure VET won the race, as it totally negated the point of starting Webber on the Medium.
 
Aye,
15.0 freely available this morning for finishing 3rd.
I took 2.6 for the same 3rd position !
No-one to blame but mehself; a lowly tenner wouldn't have been sorely missed if it lost.
But ...................Frustrating or what ! :(
 
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