The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

EC1 said:
I'd put Robs LSP against the info selections on here and think he would be in front...info is no better or worse than form study imo..it just makes people feel special receiving info.
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Yes, you made that point about form v info before. Point taken, money saved
 
Hamm said:
How exactly? On Somersbys first 2 runs last season, it is he who is well in her. He gets 17 pounds from Cue Card for an 8 length beating in the Ascot Chase. Cue Card may win but he is far, far from a good thing, and will surely not be fully wound up.
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Nice bit of analysis - I fancied him strongly but thankfully work got in the way.
 
LUKE said:
Nice bit of analysis - I fancied him strongly but thankfully work got in the way.
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Thanks. He's a slightly underrated horse as expectations were so high at the start of his chasing career.

Very few horses are 'good things' off 172.

Out of interest, how many horses have won off higher handicap marks in the history of jumps?
 
I'm guessing this goes back ten years.

Looks like it's a winning system, so I will be only punting these in future.

+173

9 3 33.33% 2.95 5 55.56%

22.10.2011 Aintree Master Minded (FR) 2/5 3rd/3
27.11.2010 Newbury Denman (IRE) 4/1 3rd/18
2.11.2010 Exeter Twist Magic (FR) 16/1 2nd/9
28.11.2009 Newbury Denman (IRE) 11/4 1st/19
26.10.2008 Aintree Voy Por Ustedes (FR) 3/1 4th/12
28.10.2007 Aintree Kauto Star (FR) 11/10 2nd/4
29.01.2005 Cheltenham Well Chief (GER) 5/1 1st/10
3.01.2005 Wetherby Well Chief (GER) 8/13 F/8
2.11.2004 Exeter Azertyuiop (FR) 6/5 1st/7
 
Should have put the winning OR's up.

From the top:

174
179
174.

So Well Chief's win in the VC was the best recent win off 179.
 
Apologies that the horse ran well below expectations.
Apologise for thinking it would win, and posting it on this thread? Nah, never.:ninja:
 
reet hard said:
Apologies that the horse ran well below expectations.
Apologise for thinking it would win, and posting it on this thread? Nah, never.:ninja:
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Whilst I ainted arsed that you posted it on this thread or any other thread, to suggest that he ran well below expectations is just wrong. His previous best RPR over 2m was 170. His best form was over 3f further, on softer ground and on a stiffer track.

Somersby has put in an average of 164 in his runs at similar distance etc - if CC put in 170, he's put in a 159.

Trying to give him 17lbs was an impossible task for Cue Card at this distance. He might have managed it over 2m5f.
 
simmo said:
Whilst I ainted arsed that you posted it on this thread or any other thread, to suggest that he ran well below expectations is just wrong. His previous best RPR over 2m was 170. His best form was over 3f further, on softer ground and on a stiffer track.

Somersby has put in an average of 164 in his runs at similar distance etc - if CC put in 170, he's put in a 159.

Trying to give him 17lbs was an impossible task for Cue Card at this distance. He might have managed it over 2m5f.
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His best form (according to the OH and RPR) was over 2.5f further than today, around a sharper track and on faster ground.
 
reet hard said:
His best form (according to the OH and RPR) was over 2.5f further than today, around a sharper track and on faster ground.
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Why didn't you read my post? Forget about the result but your pre-race analysis that this horse was a good thing was flawed, and in a big way.
 
Hamm
Clearly it was flawed, as the horse lost. However, putting his defeat down to simple avoirdupois would also be well wide of the mark. As I said before the race, Cue Card's forte is his ability to burn others off with his pace and slick jumping, that never materialised today, at all.
Maybe it was the couple of early errors, or maybe he was only out for a spin, but the lack of pace (only 2.3 secs faster than the novice chase, and a relative 3.4 secs slower than the preceding novice hurdle) had far more bearing on the result than their respective ratings, and (imo) it would be foolish to believe that today's race represented anything near to Cue Card's true.form.
 
EC1 said:
I'd put Robs LSP against the info selections on here and think he would be in front...info is no better or worse than form study imo..it just makes people feel special receiving info.
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My figures on this thread would destroy any form student.
 
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