Tingle Creek

Flame said:
You can't issue a non triers on Ferdy until the race is run, it will depend hows its ridden, if its blatantly not off, they will of course take action but given the horse is no 2m, chances are he'll be outpaced throughout and stay on, without strong handling.

That is not non trying.
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Oh please, Flame - you don't really believe this do you? How many of Ferdy's non triers have been hauled in recently? Most of them have been swept conveniently under the carpet.

I'm sure that the BHA would be interested to hear your reasoning over how come purposely running a horse over a trip far too short for it in a specific attempt to give it a school around and with no intention whatsoever of it being asked for an effort or being put into the race doesn't constitute non trying.
 
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He had one referred to the BHA today in the mares novice at Catterick which finished 5th to a stable companion.
 
Your right Rory no such thing as a certainty however MM back over 2 miles and with what he is against the 8/11 price I took well lets say there are far many worse 8/11 chances out there. I just cant see any other possible result no matter how hard I try. The only thing I see is another bloodless victory.
 
Galileo said:
In fairness Master Minded's form before the Champion romp was pretty good as well.
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True but it was nowhere near from a ratings point of view. Could Cheltenham have been a freak performance? I worry about the Railway fences with Tidal Bay but if I can get 7/2ish i`m a piling on.
 
Euronymous said:
True but it was nowhere near from a ratings point of view.
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Agreed, though despite the fact that he was getting weight from VPU at Newbury, Master Minded still sauntered away from the rest of the Game Spirit field with the minimum of fuss.

Even if Cheltenham was a "freak performance", the Newbury run still puts him comfortably clear of what Tidal Bay has achieved over fences.....imo.
 
I would agree with Grass here but I can't get that Aintree run straight in my mind.

I can't believe it was down to stamina limitations, something wasn't right that day. Has it been sorted?
 
From my reading of his form, Colin, MM doesn't get 2m4f but does stay 2m2f, so a strong pace on a stiff track over 2m suits well. They were going some clip at Aintree when he walloped the fence and it completely knocked the stuffing out of him. He would have been closer to VPU but for that, but would not have beaten him over that trip.
 
1. Fiepes Shuffle (Jamie Moore) 50/1
2. L'Antartique (G Lee) 66/1
3. Mahogany Blaze (P J Brennan) 33/1
4. Master Minded (A P McCoy) 4/7
5. Takeroc (Christian Williams) 9/1
6. Tidal Bay (Denis O'Regan) 100/30
7. Twist Magic (Robert Thornton) 16/1
 
Just looking at Fiepes' Shuffle's form - what the hell is a Swimming Chase? Will we be getting them at Worcester?
 
It's a race they run at Hamburg - there's a lake in the middle of the course Redhead and the runners have to negotiate it during the race.

Personally think Fiepes Shuffle likes it at Sandown and think there will be worse 50/1 shots this season.
 
Interesting that Timeform believe a "temporary injury" sustained at the second last is more likely to account for Master Minded's Aintree performance than purely a lack of stamina. I would tend to agree with that tbh, as he was beaten in a matter of strides after the mistake.

4/6 about Master Minded is about right IMO. I have little doubt that there is improvement to come from Tidal Bay, I just doubt it will be over 2 miles and he'd want to be improving upwards of half a stone to get near Master Minded.
 
I have a feeling this is going to be pretty close and at the prices I will take a chance with Tidal Bay.

Jumping under pressure is a worry but with a clear round I think he could put it up to Master Minded. He has the benefit of a run and I have just re-watched his Arkle win on the RP site again and I forgot just how impressive he was that day.
 
One of the best Arkle winners I've recorded (second fastest). I think a lot will depend as to how he goes about the railway fences (as has been said). He seems to jump better to my eyes at least, when he attacks a fence and allows his speed and momentum to sail over them. If he starts showing them too much respect and they go into them over cautious then he starts to look a bit ponderous and seems to guess at a few. I think it's going to require O'Reagan to take a deep breath and commit to the series aggresively, as he doesn't look a fluent fencer, but when at cruising speed he can get away with it because he is so fast. If he meets one wrong though, he could be in trouble, and if he goes into them too slowly, he might similarly lose rhythm and momentum.

I wouldn't lose sight of the fact that masterminded has hardly been fence perfect in his career either. 3 times he's fallen or unseated, and when you add that to his race stopping mistake at Aintree I wouldn't be convinced that there isn't going to be a significant faller or two, or more likely, race costing blunders.

I'm guessing that Mahogany Blaze will set a brisk pace which allied to softish ground -3.90 yesterday (thankyou for not putting standard times up in the results RP) and an uphill finish will do for Twist Magic (who has hit the deck himself before now), and crashed through a few when looking leg weary. I've got a theory that TM is pretty much on his limits at 2 miles, and needs a flat track, decent ground and a sympathetic pace not to expose his limitations, none of which he'll have tomorrow.

Once you equalise the weights out, he's pretty well on a level with MB on their Haldon Cup running, and yet one is 40/1 and the other 14's.

Incidentally a word on Von der Recke. He doesn't normally leave these shores empty handed, and its stretching things to believe he's relying on Fieppes Shuffle to pay for the trip. He appears to have 5 other horses over here at the moment (provided he's brought the lot together?) not sure how this works, but Mordin reckons they come over in groups of 3? Anyway, all five of them are variously entered at Ludlow on the 11th:whistle:
 
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I hope you're right about a brisk pace set - could be in for something special if Master Minded and Tidal Bay are allowed to come off a strong one.
 
I am going for Takeroc because Master Minded might need the run and Tidal Bay is susept to few blunders.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
I hope you're right about a brisk pace set - could be in for something special if Master Minded and Tidal Bay are allowed to come off a strong one.
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Mahogany Blaze has made the running before, (he did so at Ascot last year, when Wee Robbie chased him down as a novice). I suppose there's a chance they might let him go on and get caught watching each other a bit. I don't see him slipping the field to win or anything stupid like that, but there's always a chance he could get a soft enough lead on some of those he's closely mathced to and hang on for a place.

If there's one division that still throws up a few fallers or race defining errors (and significant ones at that) it tends to be the top truly run two miles chases. Although last years Champion Chase, escaped unscathed, previously Moscow, Azerty, Well Chief, and Kauto had come to grief thus. You might add the ill considered Latalomne to the list, and at a stretch coudl even invoke the Melling. I seem to recall Moscow coming to grief in a Tingle Creek too. I can see soemthing going slightly askew to be honest, and although Tidal Bay has never looked fluent, neither has he fallen, or been outside the first two for that matter. Masterminded would seemingly have more question marks about him in that department
 
I'll be surprised if they can hold on to Fiepes Shuffle. He's looked a free-going fnt runner both times he's run at Sandown.
 
I'm firmly in the Master Minded camp. I reckon it's very easy to forgive his Aintree run. The performance we saw at Cheltenham stands up from just about every angle and if it's a matter of jumping, I think MM's will hold up better round here than TB's.

For what it's worth, though, I think Twist Magic is a good bet to finish ahead of Tidal Bay and if there's a market without the fav, I'll be all over him like a rash.
 
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