Today's Fancy

Good solid work that. Like I said as soon as PN says they just want to get round it was dead money.
 
On The Bridle said:
After studying the race for a decent while - I am even further convinced that Home Secretary may be seriously good value at around 14/1 in the 60-90 handicap over 12f at 9:00 Dundalk (Friday 26th November) - hope your tuned in EC1. He will be nine pounds better off with likely fav Denny Crane (a horse whom I think could be a monstrous NH recruit) for a little over two lenghts last time out - where he stumbled in the straight and could have been closer. He has won two from 5 on the track and was fourth two of his other 3 runs. He is trained by a small outfit and this is one of the reasons he is overpriced. There may be an angle for you betfair boys as HS travels like a dream on bridle through his races and you may very well be able to trade out and lock in a profit as he arrives there swinging!! Wears the Tongue tie worn on previous victories which may account for his finding less than expected when push comes to shove but for me a speculative EW bet at a decent price to possibly upset DC and Mark Johnsons charge.
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Interesting stuff, On The Bridle. My take on the horse, for what it's worth, is that he may not entirely see out a truly-run 12f.

I would find it pretty tough to have a bet with any confidence on tonight's card. The 7f handicap looks the most interesting race of the night, but the possibility of a slow pace is off-putting. I'm convinced Banna Boirche's last two runs represent the best form in the field by a considerable margin (particularly his victory over course and distance two starts back when he overcame a pretty strong pace bias held up in a slowly run race). His turn of foot may well stand him in good stead in this field, though he is again poorly drawn. My friend Dahindar has raced prominently in the past, but has been seen to good effect held up during his recent purple patch though I just don't think he will be able to overcome being held up off a likely moderate pace over 7f off his revised mark; they would be well served riding him a shade more prominently tonight in my opinion. The other Lynam yoke might well be better suited to 7f and possibly might get the run of things though I don't see him, or anything else in the race, as anywhere near as progressive as Banna Boirche.

Elsewhere Harry Days caught my eye on his last run having fared best of those who raced prominently in a race probably run at an overly-strong tempo. I was hoping for a fair bit better than 4's though, despite the weakness of the race. I've actually had a speculative e/w punt on Mootriba in the same race, purely on the basis that he was keeping on nicely over 7f off a relatively soft early tempo last time and should be well-suited on pedigree to a step up in trip.

Looks a tough card on the whole. I have no interest in the 2yo maidens tonight.
 
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I was on my way back to work and watched the race in bookies having laid Celestial at 2.44 for a wedge.I had traded out at prices up to 6 when the fav fell and couldn't resist laying him again at 1.45.Dream race for me.
Two possibilities for me 1) he is paceless 2)the Novice handicap at the festival is the plan and he could he a big improver on the day.
 
No 2 is what I am thinking though I dont think the handicapper will be too kind based on his hurdles form.
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They probably have to go for number 2 because of number 1.
 
Ger Lyons is a "friend" of mine on Facebook and put up Cosmic Breeze as worth a few bob tonight
 
martin said:
I fancy Mam Ratagan tomorrow at Newbury 1:00. Ignoring it's last run obviously, the jockey is in excellent form and the trainer (who I've never heard of) sent out a 14/1 winner last week.
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The trainer you've never heard of is Heather Main, wife of vet James Main, famous for THAT Henderson case. Mam Ratagan often runs at Newbury - indeed ran a few times last season in Saturday handicap chases when it could have been running in novice chases it had a good chance of winning - as the owners [and trainer] are local and like to have runners at Newbury. I believe this is her third season and she's been doing well this year, training her three winners to date.
 
Trackside I nominate you as the forums Dundalk expert and hope you can give us a preview like you did tonight for the three remaining nights. I had to double check the time of your post it was that accurate ! Seriously good stuff - I was caught working late tonight so didn't manage to get my place lay on Home Secretary but as you pointed out Banna Boirce was indeed the standout in the 7:30 - unlucky with your other EW znd of course Harry dots up ! Kudos big man!!
 
On The Bridle said:
Trackside I nominate you as the forums Dundalk expert and hope you can give us a preview like you did tonight for the three remaining nights. I had to double check the time of your post it was that accurate ! Seriously good stuff - I was caught working late tonight so didn't manage to get my place lay on Home Secretary but as you pointed out Banna Boirce was indeed the standout in the 7:30 - unlucky with your other EW znd of course Harry dots up ! Kudos big man!!
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Give people on here a little credit...there is no way you were working late....
 
Shadow Leader said:
The trainer you've never heard of is Heather Main, wife of vet James Main, famous for THAT Henderson case. Mam Ratagan often runs at Newbury - indeed ran a few times last season in Saturday handicap chases when it could have been running in novice chases it had a good chance of winning - as the owners [and trainer] are local and like to have runners at Newbury. I believe this is her third season and she's been doing well this year, training her three winners to date.
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Good luck to her Shadow, a furlong shorter and who knows. Heather Main placed Mam Ratagan in the right race and over a furlong shorter (even half a furlong?) it would have been interesting. The King horse was totally unexposed over fences and when it was showing all blue on oddschecker this morning I knew it was expected to run well. Enjoyed watching the race though.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Trackside I nominate you as the forums Dundalk expert and hope you can give us a preview like you did tonight for the three remaining nights. I had to double check the time of your post it was that accurate ! Seriously good stuff - I was caught working late tonight so didn't manage to get my place lay on Home Secretary but as you pointed out Banna Boirce was indeed the standout in the 7:30 - unlucky with your other EW znd of course Harry dots up ! Kudos big man!!
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Very kind of you sir!

At the risk of after-timing through my nose I had a bit of Harry Days at 8.5 on Betfair ~ I would have had a fair bit more were the drift not so disconcerting. Oversighted was the one for money on Betfair near the off and Mootriba actually ended up starting a shorter price than Harry Days!

Really pleasing result in the 7f handicap as I've followed both the front two as they have made relentless progress on the all-weather recently. I'm sure I'll be giving it all back and more next Friday anyway!
 
My first no bet night at Dundalk in a while. If you got money out of those results you're a hero in my eyes!
 
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Looking at the 3.50 at Kempton, there's no doubting that Nideeb has taken to polytrack like a duck to water, winning both of his starts, but I'm not sure his form is strong enough to make him quite so short a price favourite as he is. I thought he benefitted from a very good ride to get first run last weekend. Most of his rivals look either badly treated on these terms or have something to prove under these conditions and the one I am strong on against him is Dreamspeed. A 3-y-o with little racing behind him, I was taken with his effort in the St Simon Stakes at Newbury last time. He travelled really well there but just looked to find the trip in testing ground stretching him. Even on that bare form he has a very similar chance to Nideeb and I think the test of speed at this trip will play to his strengths and could see him improve some. He's got a high draw so should be able to take up a relatively handy position which seems to suit him.
 
Gearoid said:
My first no bet night at Dundalk in a while. If you got money out of those results you're a hero in my eyes!
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My nap of the night was an in running lay of Louisville Lip-ended up making a complete balls of it and not making a penny despite him being matched for plenty at 1.31.
 
This time last year I would have said to you that betfair was the only show in town but some of the offers in the average Irish betting shop are very attractive-they just cant be making money.
I was going to start a thrad about my attempts to get the Christmas presents on the back of NTD's slump but thought twice about it.Historically this isn' a great time for the stable.
 
LUKE said:
This time last year I would have said to you that betfair was the only show in town but some of the offers in the average Irish betting shop are very attractive-they just cant be making money.
I was going to start a thrad about my attempts to get the Christmas presents on the back of NTD's slump but thought twice about it.Historically this isn' a great time for the stable.
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Agreed fantastic value available at the minute with a price war on for Market share. Never have there been so many options with at least five big name high st bookies in every large town plus the on line and telephone options. Something has to give - I am privy to some of the rents these companies are paying - they are huge!! They must be working to tiny margins with guaranteed odds, specials, money backs etc etc - Lets take advantage while it lasts!!
 
I think that only the big two can survive in the current climate. Celtic will be the next to go to the wall. They spiced up the market for a while but are closing their telephone operation. There was big rumours about Boyles a few months ago but it seemed to be misplaced.
 
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