Today's Fancy

Getting back to Sanctuaire -I was at a Cheltenham preview in March and Ruby had to miss it because of Sanctuaire who was running that day.Ted turned up in his place and said that it was a long time since Ruby had so much trouble pulling up a winner as he did with Sanctuaire and he would have a great chance at the festival.I see his season revolving around the County Hurdle.
 
LUKE said:
Getting back to Sanctuaire -I was at a Cheltenham preview in March and Ruby had to miss it because of Sanctuaire who was running that day.Ted turned up in his place and said that it was a long time since Ruby had so much trouble pulling up a winner as he did with Sanctuaire and he would have a great chance at the festival.I see his season revolving around the County Hurdle.
Click to expand...

Today was a prep for the Ladbroke at Ascot - be interesting to see if he still goes there.
 
davidjohnson said:
I was all over him for the Greatwood. Think he needs further than 2m in that company.
Click to expand...

Coral Cup was my initial thought after the Greatwood. I'm inclined to treat that form with a deal of caution as they certainly didn't seem to go the "electric" (to borrow the ludicrous phrase that Nick Luck is so fond of using) gallop that you would expect in a major handicap. I'm certainly not convinced it showed the King horse to best effect anyway.
 
Isn't MRTC developing into a bit of a thief in these big field handicaps? Seems never quite able to land the blow.
 
If Lightening Stricks is anything close to his tissue price of 3/1 in the 3:30 at Dundalk tomorrow he could be bet of the season. He is 12 lbs well in on future ratings as he was entered before his penalty was calculated for his Saturday maiden win. He did it easily and eased down and has shown dramatic improvement with the application of a tongue tie and the drop back to 8f. I have a horse in the race and have studied it pretty intently. My advice would be to hover up any early 5/2 or better!! Consider this as an early Christmas Present and treat yourself!!
 
OTB -couldn't believe my eyes on Sunday when London Bridge was available to lay at 2/1 for a place in a 7 furlong race after setting a very slow gallop in a 10furlong race the day before.At times I wonder do people just follow gambles blindly no matter what the price is.it's some track to be a layer at.
 
Agree with you OTB - I can't see him being 3/1 in the morning though and he ran a really nice time the other day too. The only danger for me is if this race comes too soon but he had such an easy race it's hard to see that effecting him too much.

The following race has a few thread favourites in the shape of Banna Boirche, Boynagh Joy and Dahindar. Boynagh Joy won a nice looking listed race last time out but for all that she's done she's 27lbs higher than her last winning handicap mark with the third in her listed win having not won in a year and the runner-up has been in and out at best (rated 100, last win in a handicap off 84) so she is vulnerable to one of the other two IMO - which one is open to interpretation, Banna beat Dahindar 3/4 length last time out over 7f receiving 2lbs but now has to concede 5lbs back up to 1m (Dahindar is 2/2 over CD).

Only other fancy tomorrow goes in the afternoon at Kempton - All The Winds (15:20) was an impressive winner to my eye last time out in a similar event to this recording a good speed figure for the grade in the process. That was his AW debut and he's off just a 5lb higher mark today and having seemingly sorted out his starting problems he could still be well in and he was considered good enough to contest Derby Trial's and listed races back in his native Germany. Currently a best priced 6/1.
 
Banna beat Dahindar 3/4 length last time out over 7f receiving 2lbs but now has to concede 5lbs back up to 1m (Dahindar is 2/2 over CD).


I can't have Boynagh Joy either (tissue jolly) - I am finding it difficult to separate the other two - you have called these races very very accurately on this thread - put your head on the block??
 
LUKE said:
OTB -couldn't believe my eyes on Sunday when London Bridge was available to lay at 2/1 for a place in a 7 furlong race after setting a very slow gallop in a 10furlong race the day before.At times I wonder do people just follow gambles blindly no matter what the price is.it's some track to be a layer at.
Click to expand...

Was there any volume at those levels?? Also when we see published t/o figures on races with Betfair - what percentage in your opinion is simple one way backing and laying as against the arbing and trading back to profit (if you understand my inept descriptions) of professional traders like yourself. This is especially of interest after today's budget.

Betfair atheist
 
When it comes to nailing my colours to the mast I would have to be with Dahindar - would prefer to see Padraig Berry riding (2 wins from 4 rides on the horse), the form over the trip should see improvement and I'd back him (and probably have a small reverse forecast) ;)
 
OTB -from memory you certainly could have laid a grand at 2/1.
It's impossible to know how much is opinion based and how much is the ebb and flow of trading.
I believe that up to 10 minutes before an ordinary race the market is dominated by traders,the last 5 minutes are where opinions and desperation come into it.
I certainly wouldn't be a professional trader -I just like punting.
 
I would be a Dahindar supporter at the tissue prices in that race as well. Banna Boirche has done me a number of good turns over the last couple of months but, whilst he clearly gets a mile, I just have it in my head that his best form has come at 7f in races where his turn of foot is a serious asset. With a decent gallop likely here with both Anam Chara and Knight's Templar I just think the shape of the race will suit Dahindar more. He ran a screamer last time but was undone by the Halford horse's turn of foot I thought. The combination of a 4lb pull in the weights and the return to a strongly-run mile should see him turn around the form. Like you guys, I would be against Boynagh Joy at the likely prices. Yet another progressive performer but being put up 16lbs for winning a very mediocre fillies listed looks harsh enough.

The other races look tough at first glance; its very hard to know how much certain yards (particularly the smaller yards) have or haven't been held up by the weather. We may well see some funny results.

I'd be wary of that A. O'Brien in the 2yo races. Shrewd operator but I'm just not sure he has the facilities to cope with the winter weather...
 
Last edited:
Irish Stamp said:
When it comes to nailing my colours to the mast I would have to be with Dahindar - would prefer to see Padraig Berry riding (2 wins from 4 rides on the horse), the form over the trip should see improvement and I'd back him (and probably have a small reverse forecast) ;)
Click to expand...

Interesting you would prefer Beggy - I think he is under rated hugely and flys under the radar a bit - saying that Fran will do for me and with Trackdside rowing in it looks like Dahindar is the one in that race.

Am I losing it or has anybody else been tempted by the 8/1 Joseph O'Brien for the apprentices title. Has a heap of decent chances tomorrow ( two odds on shots and at least two more favorites) and looks like getting some seriously good rides on Friday also. If he could bag a treble tomorrow he'd have a decent chance of at least getting a dead heat on Friday. Don't think Ben or Gary will stumble into one tomorrow??
 
Last edited:
Banna Boirche was put up by Gary O'Brien on the ATR website - normally shorten after he puts them up so wouldn't worry too much unless you've heard something else
 
Irish Stamp said:
Banna Boirche was put up by Gary O'Brien on the ATR website - normally shorten after he puts them up so wouldn't worry too much unless you've heard something else
Click to expand...

Word was from stable - just strong enough to half my bet on Dahindar and save on Banna Boirche - out of jail - these Dundalk cards are getting no easier.
 
As far as punting goes I would rate Dundalk third behind The Curragh and Leopardstown in terms of turnover and profitability.
 
Back
Top