Today's Fancy

Mainly a layer -but like to back at big odds ,especially strong traveller that offer the chance to trade out at a profit.
If there is one lesson I have learned this year it's the weakness of English maidens -particularly all weather maidens -I must post my 5 worst results(lays) of the year-rubbish horses -yet they managed to win maidens.
 
I have got to be against Al Ferof at 4/5-we all know his form but translating it to hurdles isn't as easy as it seems.
 
If it goes ahead Maljimar is a solid bet in the Cross Country. He's open to improvement in this sort of event because he didn't initially look like a goer in the race last year before settling down late on. He gets a weight pull with Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre looks past his best.
 
LUKE said:
I have got to be against Al Ferof at 4/5-we all know his form but translating it to hurdles isn't as easy as it seems.
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Agreed - I think the Mcmanus horse is the fly in the ointment. JP Magnier as usual didn;t cover himself in glory when riding him at punchestown last year and he could be anything.
 
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I wouldn't be backing at the prices but al ferof will be very tough to beat. Without cue card in the bumper would have been a classy winner and the form of that race is as solid as could be.
 
I must do some research as to how the top 10 bumper horses of their year get on over hurdles but as a rule I have no fear of laying them.There can be some right slow old boats.
Anyway Al Ferof defines my punting weekend.
 
Barwell Bridge overpriced for me in the next. Should run well and will go close if he stays.
 
Quite fancy Duke of Lucca great form behind PC and Reve and should be spot on now for fitness after 2 runs this year.
 
Hamm said:
1.6 to lay now. He has been very well backed.
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I did most of my business at 1.78 before lunchtime,had decent result with rds and topped up at same price,Midnight was another good result and I topped up again at 1.9 after deciding that the market didn't want him.when he went 1.55 after lining up in front I went kamikaze and threw all the chips into the centre of the table.
Very good result for a Friday lunchtime but I was feeling uneasy for the first half mile-the incident where he threw his head gave me hope after that.
 
Kauto said:
Not surprised he went so short looked all over the winner good shout.
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Kauto-would you have an opinion on the way the market went.In my opinion it is traders and relatively small punters up to about 20 minutes before the race,then you often see an attempt at market manipulation which we did today when he went bigger then 1.9,the last 5 minutes are pure market forces with desperation often setting in at the end.When Al Ferof looked likely to jump off in front he went from roughly 1.63 to 1.55 which was a fair chunk off an already skinny price.
The terminology mightn't be the best but that's how I see a lot of Betfair markets going -as someone on the Betfair forum said it should be renamed lastfiveminutes.com.
 
martin said:
I fancy Mam Ratagan tomorrow at Newbury
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LUKE said:
Ran a very good race.
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Back out tomorrow in 11:40 at Cheltenham. Looking forward to seeing how Mam Ratagan goes after last gutsy run. in lower class. Obviously the jolly is the one too beat, along with I'm singingtheblues and Consigliere I think, but there are plenty of horses who look badly out of form or badly handicapped in the race to me. Would be another excellent piece of placement by trainer were this one to finish in the first three, horse does look too big in the market at 33/1. Quite fancy into to finish in the first four or five so worth chancing e/w.
 
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I don't like the Ox filly in the 9 o clock -there is a fair amount of suspect temperament in her breeding -her year older sister is a righ dodgepot.
It's Dundalk in December but at anything close to 1.7 she is a place lay to put the icing on a nice day.
 
LUKE said:
I don't like the Ox filly in the 9 o clock -there is a fair amount of suspect temperament in her breeding -her year older sister is a righ dodgepot.
It's Dundalk in December but at anything close to 1.7 she is a place lay to put the icing on a nice day.
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I was thinking the exact opposite - that the fav is a lay and the oxx one the one to be on.

I have backed Missy but you are giving me doubts now :)
 
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