Striker Torres set to score???
I'm bored, so the 4.10 at Wolverhampton tomorrow gets my attention.
8 declared runners and betting 3/1 the field, a tricky little handicap, but I would have you believe that come the off one horse will be sub 2/1, now to find it.
Tasmeem - first start for Dandy Nicholls and coming off a near 4 month break. Has a handicap mark 1lb below it's lowest and the mark it acheived a coupls of solid places on. Would have to come back to some decent form after the break after finishing last in only try on the AW at Kempton last time.
Diapason - a regualr visitor to Wolverhampton, including last time out when a half a length 2nd having been well backed - reported that saddle may have slipped forward but I don't see it cost him the race. The winner seems a decent high 60's animal, so off 74 I won't be rushing to back Diapason.
Tewin Wood N/R - a CD winner and also winner at Lingfield & Kempton indicate TW will have no worries with tomorrows surface. His win lto was in a claimer at Kempton, his previous handicap form from a mark in the mid 70's not amounting to a great deal. He has won off his current mark though and from his low draw is likely to be in and around the leaders from the off, not sure he has any in hand of his current mark to win this though.
Striker Torres - another CD winner with good recent form. His mark of 72 is unchanged from his last run where he was run out of it close home after making much of the running. That's a style he's used to good effect, although it can leave him vunerable to an opponent with a turn of pace close home, as his run behind the fast improving Hulcote Rose showed. I think he ran to better than his current mark behind that horse 3 runs ago and if he gets his own way out in front, could give them the slip.
Army of Stars - consistent runs in Sellers and last time took that into a handicap at Lingfield on his latest 3 runs for new connections. Another that it's difficult to see improving much, seems to be in and around the right mark in this tight handicap. 1st visit to Wolves since his racecourse debut, but handles Lingfield & Kempton.
Steed - won a bobbing finish on penultimate start, effectively off a mark of 50 if you take the jockeys claim into consideration, wouldn't have carried my money to follow up next time off of a mark of 61, but gained a battling success. Both these wins were at Southwell and only visit to Wolves was a 11th of 12 so doesn't encourage. Races off of 66 tomorrow and is 3/1 to complete the hatrick, shrewd connections but not for me tomorrow.
Little Luxury - dropping down in trip with first time cheekpieces tomorrow, replacing a visor that replaced the blinkers.... Had a decent run at Dundalk for previous connections, staying on over 6f, followed by a run over the mile which he dropped away in the later stages, 7f and cheekpieces enough to encourage you? Not me.
Double Carpet - a decent AW sort, runs consitently across the surfaces and wins / places in his share. Off a career high mark tomorrow and not a time to be getting involved for me, but when back to 55/56 will be worth watching out for.
A tight handicap where I would easily put a line through only Little Luxury and Double Carpet. Steed would go on the basis of being unproven on the surface and his steep rise for last 2 wins at Southwell. Tasmeem is an unknown quantity and if I saw him plunge in the market I would be wary, but at 15/2 I'll leave.
Half the field cut but given 3 of those are the longest in the market, maybe not much further foraward, though we've knocked out the fav. I don't think Army of Stars will win, he was entitled to win his Lingfield seller but his run back in a handicap last time out doesn't make me want to rush and back him.
My worry with the remaining 3 is that they'll ruin each others chances. Striker Torres likes to front-run, isn't ideally drawn and could be bustled up my Tewin Wood from stall 3. TW seems to be in around the pace and is a keen sort, my worry is they spoil each others chance. If they do, a held up Diapason may be the one to take advantage.
My hope would be that Striker Torres gets a lead without too much pressure from Tewin Wood and that he burns them off kicking for home under Adam Kirby. If a battle for the lead ensues, then Diapason is the one to come from off the pace to take advantage. At 7/2 and 6/1 respectively, they'd be my selections and ST is my idea of the 2/1 fav, come post time.
Edit: with Tewin Wood now a NR, my confidence is increased in ST and hopefully Double Carpet won't be able to press and he'll get his own way out in front, now a best priced 15/8.
