Today's Fancy

Carlisle
1:35 Lay - High Ransom win – going back to 2007 at Carlisle’s Jan & Feb meetings no winners had previously run on the flat at this track excluding bumpers.
 
Best of luck, Chef, but to be honest I don't see why this stat is of interest.

Why would horses who ran on the flat at this track be unable to win here in Jan or Feb? Unless you can come up with an adequate explanation I would think it best to ignore it.

My guess is the ground is very testing at Carlisle at this time of year, and it's a stiff track anyway. Therefore stamina is vital, and many ex flat horses are not strong in that department.

I think your bet will succeed, but for not quite the right reason. High Ransom was a stayer on the flat and the trip today should be, if anything, a bit on the short side for him. On the other hand a look at the progeny stats for Red Ransom shows a clear aversion to heavy ground. The slower the ground the less often they win.
 
I believe Tofino Bay will win the 22 runner maiden hurdle today but not certain whether I am confident enough to back him at best price 6/4. The race lacks strength in depth but Popcorn from Willie Mullins yard looks the big danger. it's very difficult to get a line on what Popcorn has achieved only that Mullins didnt say a huge pile about him on his recent stable tour. Not one of his leading lights but wouldn't necessarily need to be either.

TB was tissued at 5/2 which represented value on his staying on fourth to Cottrellsbooley at leopardstown - which is turning out to be a reasonably decent race with Canaly, the sixth there, winning a decent race last week. Canaly also trained by Dessie Hughes is well regarded and well bred and looked like he improved a tonne from Leopardstown.

If Tofino has improved by a similar amount he should win this - but is by no means gone by!
 
Grey said:
Best of luck, Chef, but to be honest I don't see why this stat is of interest.

Why would horses who ran on the flat at this track be unable to win here in Jan or Feb? Unless you can come up with an adequate explanation I would think it best to ignore it.

My guess is the ground is very testing at Carlisle at this time of year, and it's a stiff track anyway. Therefore stamina is vital, and many ex flat horses are not strong in that department.

I think your bet will succeed, but for not quite the right reason. High Ransom was a stayer on the flat and the trip today should be, if anything, a bit on the short side for him. On the other hand a look at the progeny stats for Red Ransom shows a clear aversion to heavy ground. The slower the ground the less often they win.
Click to expand...

Not being a big gambler Grey I like to look for unusual stats and different angles - plus I thought it would add some interest to the thread - occasionally it pays off.
 
Thought we were in trouble turning in but he found plenty - Russell dropping his hands three strides from the line didnt help the underwear situation again but we got there just-about.;)
 
we were talking about value not long ago..i mentioned this sort of thing

in the 5.40..Johnny Hancocks is forecast at 9/2..the biggest fc price in the race is 7/1..and yet JH is 16.5 on betfair :blink:

I still fancy JH to place in this and his odds are 6.2..had a dabble

how on earth can this sort of drift be justified?..has some info got out that the horse is a total non trier or something?

value seekers would call this massive value I would have thought...or is it..might as well be 50/1?
 
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This 6.10 looks interesting - the fav doesn't look obviously miles in front of the handicapper to me..he wasn't straightforward last time ..pulled..hit flat spot by the looks of it

this race doesn't look obviously fast so could be a difficult stuation again for the fav..is 6 lb higher here too

so..am going to be totally lazy and back then next 3 in the betting

Ocean Of Peace
Jackson
Mayfairs Future

9.4 - 13.0 - 13.0
 
In the 640 I have laid one time Terry Ramsden classic hope at around the 11/10 mark.I think he would prefer a bigger field and a stronger pace to run at.
 
his old form in small fields is good..his most recent form suggests he needs a pace collapse though..even at 8f..which as you say is unlikely to get here..none of these is likely to want the lead

looks a classic pace lay..may be even a place lay:)
 
I'm liking Last King Of Scotland a bit in that 6.40 Luke..will back it and lay the fav for stake + a bit I think

brings solid enough handicap form into this claimer..so his mark is genuine unlike others who seem to need to win in claimers

Hinton Admiral doesn't seem to get back to back wins now..Jake is obviously pace disadvantaged
 
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After fav won 610 I went in again at odds on for enough to get the heart beating.Confident I can lay off second bet.
 
Everything worked out for me there especially the drift in the betting and slow pace.Time for a celebratory cup of tea.
 
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