Today's Fancy

I think we can get both ex-French hotpots from the two big yards knocked-out in the Adonis.

Neither Tonic Mellyse and Molotof come with winning form from Auteuil, and I think we have to be prepared - on price grounds alone - to take-on horses coming over from France which haven't been tested at the Paris venue. Especially so when they go to Nicholls or Henderson, as the market generally runs scared for no apparent reason.

With this pair taking out over 40% between them, there must be value elsewhere, and the one I have alighted on is Akideau.

He was beaten behind Tonic Mellysse in his only start in December, held-up throughout, he was just beginning to be put into the race when he made a bad error 2 out. He ran on well thereafter, but was never going to get to them, and finished 4th of 4 - beaten just under 8L. With that experience under his belt, he is surely entitled to finish a lot closer this time around - especially so given he receives 7lb from the Nicholls horse today.

A trip of 2m on quick ground round a sharpish track is a complete unknown, and he could blow completely, but with most of the remainder having had their limitations exposed to a greater or lesser extent, this one is worth a roll of the dice at what look very generous odds of 20/1 - a price much more reflective of the fact that Richard Rowe trains, than any measure of the horses ability or potential (imo).
 
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Tonic Mellyse was trained by Nicky Henderson when initially entered for the Festival just a couple of weeks ago, now with Paul Nicholls. Strange.
 
Place Bets [1pt each @ Betfair Sp]

3.15 Newcastle-Belon Gale
3.40 Navan-Diophas
3.50 Newcastle-Paddy Partridge
4.50 Navan-Hoochie Mama
 
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