I was away at a match, had my dough down early, knew my fate when i put on Betfair Mobile and seen his price pre race. Apologies, given in good faith.
Today's Fancy
- Thread starter Simon
- Start date
I was away at a match, had my dough down early, knew my fate when i put on Betfair Mobile and seen his price pre race. Apologies, given in good faith.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Great call scratch; wish I'd listened...
On The Bridle
At the Start
The horse I put up drifted like a barge too..... You just know your beat over here when they drift like that!
Desperate Dan
Senior Jockey
Well done sg
On The Bridle
At the Start
Do Brazil to get our money back from yesterday and from him a fortnight ago. His fourth (desperate ride) behind Aupcharlie and Starling Force doesn't half look well now and any 5/2 - 9/4 should be snapped up. JP rides again so warnings apply but even he should find it tough to get him beaten today. Set the alarm clock to get the 5/2 about Pinkisthecolour - drifting now so we'll see. Photo Opportunity is gone bye according to work watchers on the Curragh - had a saver on Kyllachy Star at 20's on the esteemed Mr Johnson's recommendation.
Steve T
Journeyman
- Joined
- May 3, 2003
- Messages
- 1,621
4.20 Wolverhampton
9 declared runners bring together some old stagers, younger less exposed types,a mix of regular runners and some coming back off a break.
Starting with those at the head of the market I'm against, Gracious Melange returns from a near 7 month absence after a couple of good initial runs, followed by a dissapointing 3rd run. 80 seems a high enough mark to come into this race on.
John Veale has struggled in handicaps since winning a maiden comfortably, has jockey claiming 5 tomorrow which may help but at 6/1 is passed over.
The others coming back from a break, Desert Auction & Handsome Falcon are both having their first run for new yards and although both have form in the book capable of winning of their current mark, bringing them back to that level out of the yards of Hannon & Fahey respectively won't be easy.
Alhawy has struggled since his surprise 66/1 win, may be a little high in the handicap still.
Legal Eagle is taking a significant step up in trip, no indication that this will bring the significant improvement needed and jockey Sylvester De Sousa who regularly ride for the stable passes him over.
Dubai Dynamo has been out of form for sometime and came back after a break with a run down the field at Southwell, stable yet to hit the heights banging in the winners of last year.
This leaves us with the favourite, Elijah Pepper & Just Bond.
Elijah Pepper comes from a stable in red hot form, winners with 5 of it's last 6 runners. Runner-up by a nose over CD on his penultimate start, was found wanting on last run over a furlong further. I think we can expect a solid run from the favourite tomorrow and is the horse I most fear, available at 9/4.
Just Bond will be having his 87th start tomorrow and will be looking for win no.13. A CD winner, he ran a good race after a break last time out, over a furlong further, travelling well into the race before flattening out in the last half furlong. Sylvester De Sousa rides, which although losing out on the jockey's claim from last few runs, is a positive for me, an excellent jockey.
At 11/2, Just Bond seems a sporting bet to hit the winners enclosure tomorrow, but I am afraid of the favourite and may save at 9/4 or take the Bet365 reverse forecast price of 19.19/1 & 15.8/1 (guaranteed against the csf).
9 declared runners bring together some old stagers, younger less exposed types,a mix of regular runners and some coming back off a break.
Starting with those at the head of the market I'm against, Gracious Melange returns from a near 7 month absence after a couple of good initial runs, followed by a dissapointing 3rd run. 80 seems a high enough mark to come into this race on.
John Veale has struggled in handicaps since winning a maiden comfortably, has jockey claiming 5 tomorrow which may help but at 6/1 is passed over.
The others coming back from a break, Desert Auction & Handsome Falcon are both having their first run for new yards and although both have form in the book capable of winning of their current mark, bringing them back to that level out of the yards of Hannon & Fahey respectively won't be easy.
Alhawy has struggled since his surprise 66/1 win, may be a little high in the handicap still.
Legal Eagle is taking a significant step up in trip, no indication that this will bring the significant improvement needed and jockey Sylvester De Sousa who regularly ride for the stable passes him over.
Dubai Dynamo has been out of form for sometime and came back after a break with a run down the field at Southwell, stable yet to hit the heights banging in the winners of last year.
This leaves us with the favourite, Elijah Pepper & Just Bond.
Elijah Pepper comes from a stable in red hot form, winners with 5 of it's last 6 runners. Runner-up by a nose over CD on his penultimate start, was found wanting on last run over a furlong further. I think we can expect a solid run from the favourite tomorrow and is the horse I most fear, available at 9/4.
Just Bond will be having his 87th start tomorrow and will be looking for win no.13. A CD winner, he ran a good race after a break last time out, over a furlong further, travelling well into the race before flattening out in the last half furlong. Sylvester De Sousa rides, which although losing out on the jockey's claim from last few runs, is a positive for me, an excellent jockey.
At 11/2, Just Bond seems a sporting bet to hit the winners enclosure tomorrow, but I am afraid of the favourite and may save at 9/4 or take the Bet365 reverse forecast price of 19.19/1 & 15.8/1 (guaranteed against the csf).
Steve T
Journeyman
- Joined
- May 3, 2003
- Messages
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Maslak returns to Southwell in the 3.30 today after some forays to the AW circuits of Lingfield, Kempton & Wolves and does so on a nice mark. Granted he has been beaten some 90L+ in his last 4 runs, but he has been dropped to a mark of 66 and won off 72 prior to those last 4 runs. When he won that race he met Kingaroo giving him 13lb and a 6L beating, today he concedes just 11lb. Chris Catlin on board usually a positive on the AW surfaces and at 8/1 is worth a shout.
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I had a hopeful EW Bet on Wessex King in the 4.25 at Kempton. Needs to jump better than last time when it made several errors. It was 10/1 when I backed it last night, into 9/2 now. I did'nt fancy it too strong tbh but fancy it a bit more now!
Strange race as two went off very quick but WK was very disapointing.
links781
Journeyman
Natural Action.3.50 Haydock.Have backed it at 16/1 this evening.Been off track forabout 18 months.Had a little word for this today down this way.Watch this space 
Can I fancy all of 'em? no? shame...
Kempton today a tough meeting, was trying to figure out the ones I can go confident with but every time a bit of something else popped out of the card and shuffled my thoughts all over the place.
Can't say I fancy but I believe he has a good chance, Island Legend 7.20 Kempton currently 10/1 with bet365 and 8/1 with all the rest, could make a nice e/w if stays on price otherwise there are at least 4 other runners in that race to deny him of the finish line.
Another I'm going for is Iguacu, gave a hell of show last time beating Abigails Angel (which I backed) and might do it all over again.
Best of luck!
Kempton today a tough meeting, was trying to figure out the ones I can go confident with but every time a bit of something else popped out of the card and shuffled my thoughts all over the place.
Can't say I fancy but I believe he has a good chance, Island Legend 7.20 Kempton currently 10/1 with bet365 and 8/1 with all the rest, could make a nice e/w if stays on price otherwise there are at least 4 other runners in that race to deny him of the finish line.
Another I'm going for is Iguacu, gave a hell of show last time beating Abigails Angel (which I backed) and might do it all over again.
Best of luck!
links781
Journeyman
Natural Action.3.50 Haydock.Have backed it at 16/1 this evening.Been off track forabout 18 months.Had a little word for this today down this way.Watch this space
pulled out,keep an eye out for this one next time
PRICEWISE2008
At the Start
Natural Action.3.50 Haydock.Have backed it at 16/1 this evening.Been off track forabout 18 months.Had a little word for this today down this way.Watch this space
Non runner
On The Bridle
At the Start
Now based with Mick Channon - got disillusioned at Bolger's due to lack of rides. Strong young jockey who has had some serious falls on the flat. Some say this was due to him riding horses too agressively up behind others and clipping heals. Look at the race in Down Royal where he rode Giant Slalom - case in point - summer of 2009 I think - you will find it on the At The Races archive.
Steve T
Journeyman
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- May 3, 2003
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4th place and maybe a shade unlucky when making it's run - probably unlucky for me, as it means I'll probably give it another chance next time....
Steve T
Journeyman
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- May 3, 2003
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The red-hot form of the Gask yard has drawn me into the 8.10 Kempton tomorrow evening...
Starting with their runner, Street Power, a bit of a CD specialist, his record reads 1171545, there's also a couple of course victories over 6f to his name too. The last three runs of 545 have seen his mark drop to 82 from a peak of 88 when winning over 6f. His last CD win being off 80, I think he is close enough to his mark, with a stable in form, to go close tomorrow.
His opponenets, in market order:
Catherines Call - up a 1lb for finishing runner-up to Double Carpet here in a class 5 event, likely to be up with the pace, but at 3/1 I didn't have to think too hard about passing over.
I Confess - running riot in claimers & sellers recently, likely to make a bold bid from the front with an ideal draw, but not for me at 9/2.
Tislaam - ran on strongly to land a 6f race here, but run out of it close home last time here over 7f. May struggle in a fast run contest and needs to improve to win off this mark.
Jake The Snake - another from stable in good form and another who's been showing form in claimers. A multiple CD winner, runs well this time of year and will be a danger.
Thunderball - may contest the lead with IC & CC and compromise the chances of all 3, a CD claimer winner but struggled back in a handicap last time out.
Mr Macattack - effective at Wolverhampton and has first try at Kempton tomorrow. A pound lower mark than when winning over 7f at Wolverhampton, could be a danger if back to his best, but might be a big if.
Nezami - doesn't look to be good enough, last 2 runs very poor but was favourite for one of those on the back of a good run here over a mile. A danger if reproducing that form, but on balance it seems unlikely.
I fancy Street Power at 11/2 (7 & 6/1 all gone...) to have too much for these tomorrow, has run ok after a break before, stable in form and down to a winnable mark against a few opponents stepping up from winning runs in sellers and claimers. I might try and nick a forecast with Jake The Snake or maybe Tislaam, banking on those going off too fast in front and setting it up for those who like to come late and fast.
Starting with their runner, Street Power, a bit of a CD specialist, his record reads 1171545, there's also a couple of course victories over 6f to his name too. The last three runs of 545 have seen his mark drop to 82 from a peak of 88 when winning over 6f. His last CD win being off 80, I think he is close enough to his mark, with a stable in form, to go close tomorrow.
His opponenets, in market order:
Catherines Call - up a 1lb for finishing runner-up to Double Carpet here in a class 5 event, likely to be up with the pace, but at 3/1 I didn't have to think too hard about passing over.
I Confess - running riot in claimers & sellers recently, likely to make a bold bid from the front with an ideal draw, but not for me at 9/2.
Tislaam - ran on strongly to land a 6f race here, but run out of it close home last time here over 7f. May struggle in a fast run contest and needs to improve to win off this mark.
Jake The Snake - another from stable in good form and another who's been showing form in claimers. A multiple CD winner, runs well this time of year and will be a danger.
Thunderball - may contest the lead with IC & CC and compromise the chances of all 3, a CD claimer winner but struggled back in a handicap last time out.
Mr Macattack - effective at Wolverhampton and has first try at Kempton tomorrow. A pound lower mark than when winning over 7f at Wolverhampton, could be a danger if back to his best, but might be a big if.
Nezami - doesn't look to be good enough, last 2 runs very poor but was favourite for one of those on the back of a good run here over a mile. A danger if reproducing that form, but on balance it seems unlikely.
I fancy Street Power at 11/2 (7 & 6/1 all gone...) to have too much for these tomorrow, has run ok after a break before, stable in form and down to a winnable mark against a few opponents stepping up from winning runs in sellers and claimers. I might try and nick a forecast with Jake The Snake or maybe Tislaam, banking on those going off too fast in front and setting it up for those who like to come late and fast.
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One thing that seems clear from the statistics is that Beat All progeny are highly ground dependent. Basically, the faster the ground the more often they win, and on soft and heavy ground they win very seldom. Generally they also like a trip.
After running on winter bogs, Up The Beat (Thurles, 3.55) gets ground today that might be close enough to what he needs and he is also trying 3m for the first time.
After running on winter bogs, Up The Beat (Thurles, 3.55) gets ground today that might be close enough to what he needs and he is also trying 3m for the first time.
G
Gearoid
Guest
I've had a go e/w at 6/1. I'm sick I did not back Long Strand in the beginners chase.
Very sympathetic ride there. Looks a chaser all over.