Today's Fancy

3.10. Carlisle.

First post here.
I like the look of SEE YOU THERE in this 3m2f chase. Won the race last year.
2lb better of today. last 4 runs at Carlisle reads 1,1,1,1.
And goes well fresh. Looks value at 14/1.
 
Welcome Smithy and good luck with your bet.

Like the look of Wachmans in the first at Leopardstown - Living On Promises - made a nice debut and step up in trip should suit.
 
Weird is Al is one I've determined to follow this season. Unfortunately I have also waited for Cape Tribulation to go jumping rather than stay at hurdling. He was OK FTO but Hopefully Weird Al wins easily.
After race.
Listen on Befair Radio , took 2.88 and laid off at 1.11. Sounds good enough trial for the Hennesy over trip short of best.
 
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Think we saw the Hennessy winner there. I hope you took plenty of 10/1 Tout Seul.


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As much as I could get ew.Hope you did as well.Now real 6.2 on Befair. I'll be practicing my rain dance. If Denman is not a good as he was then Weird Al has a pretty good chance.


What's nice is that today paid for my Gold Cup and Hennesy bets. Gold Cup a bit ambitious but hey why not.
 
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That was as good a Hennessy trial as you will see and I like that it was over a shorter distance than ideal. I can not see past him now at Newbury.
 
How is Riverside Theatre a 154 rated chaser? What piece of form remotely gives him this rating? He was found out in the Arkle and in Ireland afterwards. Does 6/5 not sound much too short?

In opposition you have Free World who is a genuine 150+ chaser, and Golan Way, a 150 rated hurdler who shaped well on his chase debut, and who could set a decent pace which puts Riverside Theatre's jumping under pressure quite some way out.

A cast iron lay?
 
Had a look at the race last night and thought Golan Way was the bet but 3/1 was a bit shy for me. Riverside Theatre was sent off a very short price in Punchestown too and a few of Nicky Hendersons have need the run. I think he is worth taking on.
 
I can't decide with who so may just lay him - was swaying towards Free World. He's very very short and whilst I know a lot of people think a lot of him, he is priced up on having achieved what people think he can as opposed to what he actually has. Agree a few have needed the run and that gives a little more confidence.
 
Giving Weight and a thumping yo El Dancer and Rory's Boy fully entitles him to be in the 150s. Free World is looking a bit on the dodgy side, leaving an inexperienced jumper as his main danger. Step up to 2 and a half will be a help. To be a backer at 6/5 I'd want assurances that the Punchestown run was a blip but without any knowledge I wouldn't want to be left laying 6/5 and hoping for the worst.
 
Good post Melendez. I dont think you can rule out the outsiders. Tatenen would not be my idea of a bet but he has form in the book that entitles him to get involved. I also dont think Golan Way will be done for a lack of experience. He looks a natural over fences.
 
Melendez said:
Giving Weight and a thumping yo El Dancer and Rory's Boy fully entitles him to be in the 150s.
Click to expand...

Quite possibly you're right, and will look even more so after the race. However, I'm always sceptical about horses achieving ratings such as in the case of Riverside Theatre, but being unable to run to this rating when running off level weights. RT certainly didn't look like a 154 horse in each of his last 2 races, and the calibre of horse he faces today is closer to those 2 races than the Kempton race last xmas.

Plus, looking more closely at that Kempton race, Rory's Boy was beaten a combined 36 lengths on his next 2 starts, and El Dancer had one more run over fences, and fell, before reverting to hurdles. It is highly likely that both underperformed by more than a stone, and that for me adds to the question mark about RTs rating, and leads me even more to wanting to take RT on.
 
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Two things about Riverside Theatre 1) I feel he has been gifted soft races more then once.2)I think he is better fresh and possibly worth backing in running.
I wouldn't be laying him today.
 
Have left it as just got back to desk now after a difficult couple of hours at work. Either a back or lay could look very clever in 5 mins (stating the obvious!)
 
Perhaps more suited to a thread entitled "Thursdays Confusion", but here it will have to be.

The 3.40 Lingfield on Thursday is a 5f Maiden run on the polytrack. Just 5 declared runners:

Billionaire Boy Trained by Pat Morris Ridden by S J Craine
Clear Praise, S Dow, N Callan
Papageno, J R Jenkins, P Hanagan
Riggs, Peter Grayson, Dane O'Neil
Leahness, Pat Morris, R Hughes.

Obviously we have the Hanagan v Highes dimension to this, but this wasn't what drew me to the race. Leahness is a horse I've followed since it's last run when it was punted heavily in the morning, at huge prices, and backed from opening show of 18/1 into 14/1 - it's first run for Pat Morris. This was over 6f at Bath on Good ground, originally due to be ridden by a 3lb claimer, Hayley Turner was a late jockey change. The horse finished 6th, running on late with write up comments of:
"behind, driven along and still plenty to do over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, finished well, nearest finish opened 18/1 touched 18/1"

It's form in Ireland on a variety of going was over 6,7 & 8 furlongs and mostly consisted of dropping away in the last 2f. Currently rated just 40 after it's last run, they will struggle and have done over the last couple of weeks, to get into a handicap. Running in this weak maiden, over 5f, with Richard Hughes booked, interested me.

The (sporting life) early tissue has the 59 rated Papageno as 5/6 fav. Papageno has been ridden on it's last 2 runs, by Richard Hughes, on Thursday Paul Hanagan takes over. Hughes has on numerous recent occasions, inculding today at Kempton which included a winner, ridden for the Jenkins stable, from an outside perspective I assume Hughes could've ridden Papageno if he wanted, he rides Leahness.

Trainer Pat Morris has 2 runners, Leahness & Billionaire Boy. BB is ridden by regular stable rider Stephen Craine, with Hughes riding for the stable on Leahness, can we assume he's on the better of the 2?

Lost of if, but and maybes but I'll be surprised to see Leahness start a bigger price than his stablemate - the Hughes factor might howver work against us price-wise. There could be a strong pace on with Papageno, Clear Praise and Billionaire Boy likely to be in and around the pace, hopefully Leahness will be close enough to finish best of all.
 
Hughes and Hanagn will get up on anything this week. I would not like to use their booking as a signifciant a factor when looking for a bet.
 
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True, but the fact he could surely have ridden the (potentially odds on) favourite as well as the forecast 2nd fav is surely worth a cursory glance in the early morning prices on Thursday?
 
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