Today's Fancy

7.05 Kempton Wednesday night, surely mastery has only a back to form Man of Iron to fear? I see the 11/8 has gone and at odds on I'd rather give the e/w MoI a go, but Mastery looks a good thing to me.
 
I think this might have been the case of first agent come first agent served. Paul Hanagan did not hav e a ride in the favourites last two runs so perhaps he was else where on thoses days. It looks an ordinary race and was unlikely to be the first ride they looked for this week.
 
Steve T said:
Dinner Date - 25/1 seems a big price for a horse who ran an eyecatching race under todays pilot in August, over CD. Settled a long way back that day having been drawn 5 of 13, hopefully, off a 4lb lower mark today, drawn 2 of 10 won't be too much of a hinderence.
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Seems I was a race too soon last week, DD dropped into a class 5 apprentice handicap over the CD today, drawn 8 of 8 perhaps most significantly, and bolted up at 6/1!

The first I knew of it was seeing the result, so I attempt to take no credit, however I would like half a point at sp on EC1's "winning tips put up per member" stats... :)
 
Gearoid said:
I think this might have been the case of first agent come first agent served. Paul Hanagan did not hav e a ride in the favourites last two runs so perhaps he was else where on thoses days. It looks an ordinary race and was unlikely to be the first ride they looked for this week.
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Very possibly and ordinary would probably be building the race up! I jusat think Hughes has the stronger connection with the fav's yard, going back further than just the title run in, and maybe he's been steered toward Leahness.

As I say, it wasn't the jockey bookings that drew me to the horse, merely confused my thinking a little! Can't believe we have nearly 2 days to wait and find out, bloody 48 hour decs..... :)
 
What do the good people of this forum think of Venalmar? Slowly getting his act together to eat at the top table or has he succumbed to mediocrity. I opposed him to more money than I should the last day. At times during the race I thought he was going to flop, at other times I was severely regretting my opposition - maybe both were just wishful thinking\pessimism roundabouts of one who overstaked. My own view today is that at 9/4 or more he's well worth taking a chance on today. Probably did enough to win this last day, jumped safely, step up in trip has to help and Fairyhouse must suit him better than Galway. If you didn't know he used to be a very good horse, he'd be worth most of the 9/4. Surely the knowledge that he has been capable in grade 1 class in the past is worth enough to make him a value bet today. I'm not going to go mad with him, as I say I thought there were a few shakey moments the last day when it looked like he might just flitter out of the race, maybe that was down to the nature of the Galway track as much as the horse, worth a little interest I think.
 
Not sure if the form of his previous race is great -Sweeps Hill looks a bit of a coward to me -maybe handicapping will see him shine but I have my doubts.
 
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I am against Venalmar today. Morris has done fuck all so far this season and I actually prefer The Hurl of his two runners as the type to do something exciting over fences.

I will be having a speculative score on the de Bromhead yolk, Fort George.

I am more confident of Romanesco winning the opener in a few minutes, in what looks an incredibly weak beginners chase for Fairyhouse.
 
Good call with Romanesco BTB - rate the De Bromhead runner in the next highly though unsure if he'll be sharp enough for his return to see off the more experienced First Lieutenant though both his wins so far (Point at Dromahane and Bumper here) where on heavy ground so at 11/2 in a race of this nature he might be worth a bet.
 
Good call Bar - backed Aughnacuraveel myself in a Bumper at the track last year where he ran well. Travelled very well today - First Lieutenant disappointing mind.

Nice few quid in the BTB account today :)
 
I think I am behind the resurgence of Bar The Bull the punter. He has obviously said to himself if that clown can back a few winners so can I.


Well done btw!
 
Steve T said:
Perhaps more suited to a thread entitled "Thursdays Confusion", but here it will have to be.

The 3.40 Lingfield on Thursday is a 5f Maiden run on the polytrack. Just 5 declared runners:

Billionaire Boy Trained by Pat Morris Ridden by S J Craine
Clear Praise, S Dow, N Callan
Papageno, J R Jenkins, P Hanagan
Riggs, Peter Grayson, Dane O'Neil
Leahness, Pat Morris, R Hughes.

Obviously we have the Hanagan v Highes dimension to this, but this wasn't what drew me to the race. Leahness is a horse I've followed since it's last run when it was punted heavily in the morning, at huge prices, and backed from opening show of 18/1 into 14/1 - it's first run for Pat Morris. This was over 6f at Bath on Good ground, originally due to be ridden by a 3lb claimer, Hayley Turner was a late jockey change. The horse finished 6th, running on late with write up comments of:
"behind, driven along and still plenty to do over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, finished well, nearest finish opened 18/1 touched 18/1"

It's form in Ireland on a variety of going was over 6,7 & 8 furlongs and mostly consisted of dropping away in the last 2f. Currently rated just 40 after it's last run, they will struggle and have done over the last couple of weeks, to get into a handicap. Running in this weak maiden, over 5f, with Richard Hughes booked, interested me.

The (sporting life) early tissue has the 59 rated Papageno as 5/6 fav. Papageno has been ridden on it's last 2 runs, by Richard Hughes, on Thursday Paul Hanagan takes over. Hughes has on numerous recent occasions, inculding today at Kempton which included a winner, ridden for the Jenkins stable, from an outside perspective I assume Hughes could've ridden Papageno if he wanted, he rides Leahness.

Trainer Pat Morris has 2 runners, Leahness & Billionaire Boy. BB is ridden by regular stable rider Stephen Craine, with Hughes riding for the stable on Leahness, can we assume he's on the better of the 2?

Lost of if, but and maybes but I'll be surprised to see Leahness start a bigger price than his stablemate - the Hughes factor might howver work against us price-wise. There could be a strong pace on with Papageno, Clear Praise and Billionaire Boy likely to be in and around the pace, hopefully Leahness will be close enough to finish best of all.
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It's the big day tomorrow, race of the week, £4k class 5 maiden, 3.40 Lingfield.

No early prices surprisingly (not) but I do think that earlier on the card Ritual is likely to go off much shorter than the 6/4 available this evening and probably win for Paul Hanagan. I know from someone close to the yard they felt it had at least a stone in hand of its mark of 70 and up just 8lb for the win last time where he was particularly impressive having travelled so strongly in that race.

I'm off to pinch one of Hanagans spark plugs and hope Eve Johnson Houghton lets Hughsie off to ride the fav......:)
 
I can't have Leahness Steve at all - i know its bred to be a sprinter but seems to be more like its dam. Track record shows a lack of pace at any trip..last time over 6f..so what chance over 5?..virtually nil would have thought..even in a shit race like this..it wasn't exactly group class last race either.

Papageno looks like a 4f horse..solid 60 performer but doesn't finish..which isn't good here as most horses do seem to finish here.

I think Clear Praise will hose up...was 4/1 in a 10k event FTO and the drop back in trip looks a positive to me.

can't see other two figuring at all
 
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Gearoid said:
Strog words EC1. Sounds like a 6 out of ten.
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i never looked at any odds so not sure what its price is ..but it just looks a stand out to me in what must be one of the worst maidens of the season

i'm probably way off the mark..or the paracetamol are giving me false confidence:)

i'm gobbed with cold at the moment
 
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