Today's Fancy

Kishanda has the type of profile I like in Southwell maidens (4,00). Over a mile the 5/4 in what looks a match against a MJ horse who has not raced beyond 6f looks a no brainer.
 
Mark Johnston is proving very expensive to oppose. Took t.he 7/2 Double Duchess in the 4.30.
 
Gearoid said:
Kishanda has the type of profile I like in Southwell maidens (4,00). Over a mile the 5/4 in what looks a match against a MJ horse who has not raced beyond 6f looks a no brainer.
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I also thought Kishanda would outstay Johnstons

this was the classic maiden dilemma..you have a horse that potentially is the better horse..looking at the price tag..but looked like a short runner...and the less classy runner that would prefer the trip.

these instances come up a lot..next time the Johnstone horse comes up against a similar class animal to itself....but one that does need the trip ...will probably lose..basically its superior abilty enabled it to get the trip against the lower class animal today..but it didn't prove he stayed the trip..just that the runner up was a bit out its depth
 
I also thought Mark Johnston's current form was fairly heavily factored into New Latin's price but in this case I was wrong.
 
Given how slow the track was riding, the time of the race and the distance back to the third, I think opposing New Latin next time on grounds of lack of stamina for a mile are flawed. Johnston tends to by relentless gallopers who's style of racing often sees them outstay their pedigrees.
 
davidjohnson said:
Given how slow the track was riding, the time of the race and the distance back to the third, I think opposing New Latin next time on grounds of lack of stamina for a mile are flawed. Johnston tends to by relentless gallopers who's style of racing often sees them outstay their pedigrees.
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you may be right..i was talking generally with the point i made..ie these situations come up regular and are quite hard to solve..the balance between low class stayer..higher class non stayer

just trying to provoke discussion really
 
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Really fancy Street Power in the 7.20 Kempton. Think the application of the cheekpieces will help and now only 4lb higher than his last win when he still looked progressive to me. Loves it at Kempton and should be cherry ripe after a couple of runs back after a break.
 
I was sweet on Advertisement in that race, really liked the look of him the last day, but too short for a bet, so may do a reverse forecast with Street Power for an interest.
 
Tymismoni 6.20 There has been plenty of money for this one all day from fancy prices, looks a plot, so may be of interest to some.
 
del boy said:
Tymismoni 6.20 There has been plenty of money for this one all day from fancy prices, looks a plot, so may be of interest to some.
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Done at 1.01, connections must be gutted given that they most likely had a good touch, hopefully the ew money will be a good profit for them, but given that it was trading in the photo below 2/1 it must have been very close.
 
Went to the front half a length clear but whip broke so hands and heels and done on the line
 
Kauto said:
Really fancy Street Power in the 7.20 Kempton. Think the application of the cheekpieces will help and now only 4lb higher than his last win when he still looked progressive to me. Loves it at Kempton and should be cherry ripe after a couple of runs back after a break.
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Load of cack although not sure how vigorous Steve Drowne was.
 
Not a fan of the yard at all Kauto, they regularly put poor runs in from there. Backed it myself sadly.

In other news, the drift and ride on Gallantry told a usual story from that yard. :ninja:
 
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Flash of temperament behind the stalls,flyjump from the stalls,traffic problems,more traffic problems.Never in doubt.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Not a fan of the yard at all Kauto, they regularly put poor runs in from there. Backed it myself sadly.

In other news, the drift and ride on Gallantry told a usual story from that yard. :ninja:
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Gallantry went down to post about 60mph i was scrambling for the betfair lay button
 
Having glanced through today's Clonmel card I've taken 2's about Belle Brook in the mares hurdle. Flattered though she may have been to get to within a length of Our Girl Salley at Fairyhouse, that run represents by far and away the best form on offer here. That fact that she jumps for fun should prove a serious asset in a race around this track as well.

The same could not be said about Magen's Star, who walked through several on her way to recording a bloodless victory in a pretty dire Thurles maiden. Impressive as she was that day, the form is nothing to get carried away about, and as long as the others don't give her too much rope (with Davy Russell onboard Belle Brook it may be prudent to wait to see where he sits early before playing for those who have the luxury of watching live) I reckon she is opposable at the prices.

Also worth noting that I haven't backed the winner of a mares hurdle in at least two years.
 
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The Hunter Chase season starts in the UK today with the usual array of top stables represented (O'Neill, Nicholls and King all have runners) and hte Nicholls horse is of interest coming off a 2 year lay off, Nicholls has openly admitted the horse will improve for his first start and at 5/2 he isn't for me.

The one I do like in this however is the Paul Tolman ridden Gentle George who has won first time out in each of the past three seasons, the highlight of 2010 being a fourth placed finish behind Baby Run in the Foxhunters at the Festival. He's already won a HC going right-handed and with doubts in my mind surrounding the front two in the market (Ornais - fitness, Halcon Generlardais - trip too short?) he represents the best value at 12/1 best price.
 
I'd be keen to oppose both the Nicholls and the King horses. Runners from big NH yards tend to be massively underpriced in hunter chases in my opinion.

The two I'd be interested in backing at the prices would be Gentle George and Whizzaar.
 
Might not be a popular winner here but think Trachonitis is overpriced in 3.00 Southwell. Lots of form in these conditions, well handicapped and though he looked like he should have won here 2 starts back, in hindsight Dontpaytherferryman was very well handicapped that day. Lots of kickback and a bigger field didn't suit next time. He's a rogue but has the ability to win this on the bridle. Eseej is much too short for a horse that tends to hang right and will get taken on by Amazing Blue Sky. Sail Home doesn't have many negatives bar her price, just don;t think she should be 7/4 and Trachonitis 4's.
 
In the Mares hurdle at Towcester I have decided to take a chance with Brendan Powells St Enoder. This stamina test should be more up her street and after a couple of runs and debut over hurdles recently she may be able to at least find the place's here today. Sam Thomas rides which is great until you look at his record with B Powell,0-20! Still, there's a first time for everything:whistle:
 
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